Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Madurai posted:

Now explaining to 18-year-old what the Warsaw Pact was. Think of all the new place names we're going to learn!

Putingrad, capital of Autonomous Russian Republic of The Ukraine

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Hyrax Attack! posted:

I wonder if they've successfully hit any helicopters with javelins yet, or if that's not realistic if they are only using them for armor.

We sent a bunch of Stingers too, for the helos.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Kind of surprised this didn't happen already.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May



Slavs are a remarkable combination of hard-as-gently caress evolved on brutal steppe and strangely poetic.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
And I'm done for the day.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukrainenews0/status/1496845105428193286

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Like what is Russia's endgame here? I can't imagine them holding areas outside the breakaway republics long but then what is the point of invading if they don't?

Force a peace treaty that includes creating a puppet government.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Mr. Nice! posted:

NATO did not in any way force Putin's hand here. There are literal NATO countries on the border with Russia and none have ever attempted to do anything to Russia because outside of defending against their bullshit, no one really cares.

Ukraine has been under assault by Russia since they took Crimea and started propping up their "rebels" in the breakaway regions. Putin very clearly started amassing his troops months ago and prepped for the invasion. All intelligence indicated they were prepping to invade. I'm sure that we had actual messages either from Russia or their allies that communicated with us that they were planning on invading. One of their foreign ministers even said that they were invading on Feb 22 and 4 am (they did 2 days later). Putin's video announcing the start of the invasion was recorded three days before the invasion itself.

This was a long planned operation. Now, if you want to say that part of Putin's motivation is to create a buffer between himself and NATO, that argument might hold water if it weren't for fact that there are already NATO nations outside of Russia and this action is going to drive more countries to join NATO.

This is 100% Putin's war. No one forced his hand. He very clearly has stated he thinks that Ukraine should not exist as an independent polity and is working toward that end.

Also, and this is important, Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. MAD is still a thing. Whether NATO has countries bordering Russia or not, nobody is going to threaten the territorial integrity of a major nuclear power.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Turns out it Irelands fault

https://twitter.com/jonmarcstanley/status/1496626558437576704?s=21

-Some Tory who fucks children, probably.

https://arethebritsatitagain.org

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

ASAPI posted:

I've seen videos (with translation) of POWs saying similar. Not sure if it is propaganda or not.

Based on what I am seeing, people have seriously overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military.

The Russian military philosophy has always been "we have a fuckton of people to throw at the enemy"

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Marshal Prolapse posted:

God the Russian military makes the idiots thread look like a bunch of MIT grads. I’m just waiting for them to accidentally bomb a third country on land now for the full incompetent military bingo win.

Given that they're surrounded by NATO countries, that could be... bad.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

psydude posted:

I'm actually very worried Belarus is going to take advantage of this to attack Poland or Lithuania in retaliation for harboring their opposition leaders.

Look, it's not like a minor partner in a system of alliances has ever done anything rash and led to disaster.

ASAPI posted:

I know very little about international/maritime law as it applies to this kind of situation.

How quickly will these attacks draw action from various countries? Would a move like this on a US flagged merchant ship draw a kinetic response from us? Do merchant ship flags work like that?

If we think we can respond without getting our noses bloodied,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

This isn't helping the argument that Russia uses the principle of "we have a fuckton of people to throw at the enemy."
I mean sure, they of course have advanced technology and battle doctrine but a key part of that doctrine definitely seems to historically as well as currently include "threaten and/or inebriate hordes of poorly trained 18 year old conscript cannon fodder."

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Marshal Prolapse posted:

If you really want to see some broke brains check out the crazy poo poo a New York City council member posted earlier. It was straight up Russian propaganda and tankie horseshit.

https://twitter.com/kristin4harlem/status/1497233923927154704?s=21


Reminds me of back a decade ago when I checked to see what the local Occupy movement had devolved into and it was parroting Gaddafi propaganda. Being radical, anti-colonial, revolutionary is all well and good but anyone who tags themselves or their group with those labels is usually easy prey for tankie poo poo.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

hobbesmaster posted:

It’s a king air so it’s not going to have the power for that. There’s an EC-130 variant that can do it however!

Commando Solo, right?

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Turns out it Irelands fault

https://twitter.com/jonmarcstanley/status/1496626558437576704?s=21

-Some Tory who fucks children, probably.

I thought I had read the worst take of the day when I got up this morning, but it turns out it was waiting for me to go to bed:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1496977267188281344

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

davecrazy posted:

Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion?

There's always been a contingent on the far left that not only considers the US and western Europe to be vile colonizers (a defensible position) but also considers them to be the world's only colonizers and everyone else is just rightfully doing what they can to ward off the evil capitalist colonialists who exist only in the West.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

davecrazy posted:

Always fun to remind yourself watching the Ukrainian president doing this best King Leonids impression out with his citizens and soldiers that Trump thought he could blackmail him over a 400million dollar arms deal.

And, as a reminder, Trump refused to walk a quarter mile for a photo op and had to wait for his golf cart.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Yeah it’s weird to me how you arrive at the valid conclusion that the United States is often a bad actor and somewhat responsible for a lot of bad situations especially in the Middle East and Latin America but then somehow Putins Russia isn’t responsible for Ukraine

Only the West has agency. This is somehow a leftist and non-paternalist view.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Blind Rasputin posted:

Russia will forever be known after this as the paper bear.


Lately I've been hearing way too many people, from pundits to my own wife, saying "Oh man, I guess we were all wrong to laugh at Mitt Romney."

No. No we weren't. And not only is this war not evidence of Mittens being right but is pretty strong argument about just how wrong he was.

Russia's military is far weaker and rotten than we knew.
Russia's economy is weak and vulnerable, and their attempt to threaten others is only going to make Europe accelerate a shift away from Russian energy.
Russia has no friends. Even Kazakhstan doesn't want any part of this. The best they can do are puppet states and some weak sauce spite-support from India.*
Russia cannot challenge us militarily, economically, or politically. They can be a big pain in the rear end, but "number one geopolitical rival?" That is laughable. China can challenge us militarily (as far as we can tell). They are definitely challenging us economically and politically. Romney was dead wrong and this is proof.

* India is generally, rightfully salty about how we treat them. NATO/Western democracies don't treat them like the "world's largest democracy", like a peer, and like a partner. We more or less ignore them until it's time to try to get an alliance to counter China or Russia. They don't trust the West and they feel disrespected and they aren't wrong.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Xakura posted:

And yet, Ukraine is still invaded. And thousands are dead.

Which has exactly nothing to do with Russia being the number one geopolitical rival to the United States.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Handsome Ralph posted:

Starting to get the idea that Glenn Greenwald is quite possibly a loving moron
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1497630985999077376

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1497631911241564164

"I lived through this, and I said that George Bush was a good guy and we should probably do what he says and enhance the security of America."

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Milo and POTUS posted:

Wait really? lol


quote:

I had not abandoned my trust in the Bush administration. Between the president's performance in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, the swift removal of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the fact that I wanted the president to succeed, because my loyalty is to my country and he was the leader of my country, I still gave the administration the benefit of the doubt. I believed then that the president was entitled to have his national security judgment deferred to, and to the extent that I was able to develop a definitive view, I accepted his judgment that American security really would be enhanced by the invasion of this sovereign country.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Finland lost the Winter War but Russia had a hell of a pyrrhic victory. This will probably go the same way.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Ugly In The Morning posted:

Are they parroting the “Putin threw away IL76s and various units to test defenses” thing as well as “every video you see of dead Russians or Russian war crimes is a Ukrainian blue on blue?” like tankie Reddit is?

Try "No IL 76s were downed, it's all Ukrainian and State Department lies."

orange juche posted:

That's some freedom fries energy right there.

While Stoli and Smiroff aren't Russian connected any more, Russian Standard is owned and produced by a Russian billionaire so gently caress it.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

orange juche posted:

Also on the reports of downed IL76s, decent chance to be propaganda bullshit unless there's video of a burning IL76 falling out of the sky, since a shootdown of one of those aircraft would be a big propaganda coup. It's really hard to hide 130 tons of aircraft hitting the ground and third party intel would have likely confirmed the downing of those aircraft if they crashed, because satellite imagery would have shown it. Not saying Ukrainian twitter is lying about IL-76 shootdowns, just, be cautious about taking it at its word.

I don't believe four have been downed, not without hard evidence. But there seems to be evidence of at least one?

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Cythereal posted:

There was a briefing with US defense officials this morning. tl;dr is that an estimated 50% of the active Russian military is believed to be engaged in Ukraine at this time, modern ATGMs used by Ukrainian infantry in terrain have been horrifyingly effective, and that Ukrainian air defense and air force have been far more effective and resilient than anticipated.

Link?

Also, whether or not the "Ghost of Kiev" and all the dead paratroopers are real, it's undeniable that Ukraine has done significant damage to the Russian invasion force and slowed them a lot more than anyone expected. That's real.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

A Festivus Miracle posted:

Well, it's a good question. If Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine, what are other states going to do about it? Would you, put in the same position as Macron,Boris, or Biden go "alright boys, the response to this is full blown nuclear war, get me the brief case. It's time to actually end history"? This whole invasion legit puts to the test what the actual gently caress anyone can do if a nuclear armed states decides to play WW2 Germany.

100% isolation. Basically a global embargo/blockade on Russia. Full severing from the financial system, freezing or confiscation of every Russian asset, no ground or air transport in or out.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Anyway, I don't think Putin will go nuclear on Ukraine before he goes Grozhny on Kiev.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

aphid_licker posted:

Nuking is a lot more convenient than transporting enough ammo to destroy much of a city that size, idk if he can do that rn. The forces seem really thinly spread.

Tu-22? Tu-160?

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

No Z markings and the Osa-AKM is pretty old. Are we sure that poo poo is Russian?

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

What does this imply?
That nearly all of Russia's border countries have closed their airspace to flights originating in Russia.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

mmtt posted:

https://twitter.com/DevonHeinen/status/1498039843938394115

Could we see something useful come out of the UN after all those years?

I'm going to bet on "no."


Godholio posted:

They went through several false flag stories and the US/UK immediately and decisively cut them down as bullshit by declassifying intelligence with shocking speed. Eventually Russia shrugged and moved in anyway.

And to US/UK intel and leadership's credit, by doing that, any cover that possible Putin allies could have for supporting him or opposing sanctions evaporated.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Hyrax Attack! posted:

Heck if the Argentinian forces could do a lot of damage to the Royal Navy, wonder what Ukraine could do with their pick of NATO anti-ship weapons

Do they have any of that yet?

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Jokers Gamble posted:

That's on an individual level, so one ruble is currently lower in value than one Robux. A real world currency is worth less than funbux kids use to buy poo poo in a game. Imagine if the dollar was worth less than a token from Chuck E. Cheese.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kbd4d/roblox-currency-robux-is-outperforming-the-ruble

Then I'd be living off my wife's Skee-Ball skills.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

The mexican peso is only worth like, a nickel. One South Korean Won is $0.00083 US, it takes 1000 of them to make 83¢. It's not uncommon for 1 of a currency to be worth gently caress all, because we're used to the dollar supremacy.


25 years ago when I was in Russia, the exchange rate was about 6:1. Now it's 85:1. That's a big difference.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
Given the impressive Ukrainian PR war, with picture after picture of bombed out Russian convoys, the heroic Ukrainian soldiers, and the very real evidence that Russia is not having the time they expected it is going to be emotionally devastating when Russia pours on the strategic bombers and just steamrolls everything and kills everyone. Dammit.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Icon Of Sin posted:

This far in and they’ve barely got control of any major cities? Even if they win, they couldn’t do it again elsewhere anytime soon.

I wonder if South Ossetia and Chechen nationalists are getting any ideas.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

mmtt posted:

Ukraine MoD just claimed 96 tanks, 20 Grad MLRS & 8 fuel trucks on a hit on a fuel dump in the east of Kyiv.
This isn't tonight's convoy but a pretty big win if true. Probably video in a few hours.
https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1498381064565317638

Auto translate
'96 enemy tanks, 20 grads, and 8 gasoline tankers were burned by artillery and precise strikes of the Bayraktars near Lebedin.
It was a Russian refueling base.
The positions of the "Grad" were also taken down.'

Ok now even for me that’s stretching credibility.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

psydude posted:

Latest update from US DoD:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f085d056642c6ed

Turns out it's not a good idea to invade another country with an unwitting and unwilling force, particularly when you don't have food or fuel.

Please tell me that Ukrainian forces are using this opportunity to start picking off parts of that giant rear end siege convoy.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Well that's drat ominous.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply