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Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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They said on Al Jazeera a Russian Guards Motor Rifle brigade had surrendered, which, lol, but i didn't catch where

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Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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Im not buying that there's a lone dude shooting down Russian planes left and right with a relevant and poignant nickname. like, its good propaganda but it seems extremely unlikely.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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7 days to the rhine? more like 10 days to the dnieper

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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loyal, yes, but soft? nah, brutal murderers who've been putting down unrest for years. i dunno about actual combat experience

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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boop the snoot posted:

“We need to arm everyone willing to fight” seems like a reasonable response to getting invaded by a superpower.

We have “joked” on this very forum about arming minorities in this country.

We're mostly veterans here, of one type or another, and we've seen what happens when untrained people go up against even semi-trained troops like the russian conscripts and slightly better contract warriors. They get slaughtered in droves. yeah, guerrilla forces defeat even the US but the cost is absolutely enormous in blood and suffering. it just doesnt work out well for anyone. that said, i guess having guns everywhere will help out with the inevitable resitance movement though.

So, maybe unpopular question, but it seems to me like a lot of the stuff we see in media etc is very obvious "feel good" stuff, and that the ukrainians are in much as bad a place as the russians and that there's very little concerted effort and unity of command. is this backed up by what y'all see? the russians are obviously not doing half as well as feared, but the ukrainians seem very scattered to me watching from afar.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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boop the snoot posted:

You’re still looking at things from the invader perspective.

These people are literally defending their doorstep.

People are willing to die for that for good reason.

As I saw on twitter: “if Russia stops there’s no war. If Ukraine stops there’s no Ukraine.”

Im not saying they shouldn't defend themselves. or that i have a better idea, just that this never works out well in my (limited) experience. your post makes it seem like you think im cheering the russians on which i am very much not, i just see a lot of blue on blue in their future.

edit: and a lot of lives lost. while the blood will be all on putins hands, i don't think families of people being armed and sent out to fight with no training will feel lass devastated. i dunno.

Nuclear War fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Feb 27, 2022

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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boop the snoot posted:

I apologize for making you seem pro-Russian. It wasn’t my intention. But implying people shouldn’t arm themselves because of something that *might* happen in the future, at the expense of defending their country *right now* is some western imperialist propaganda.

my bad for overreacting. like everyone else, my emotions are running high. i spent so many years in the ruins of the ME and should probably step away from my screen honestly

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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bees everywhere posted:

Imo NATO shouldn't intervene but there's nothing to stop them from doing their own troop exercises on Russia's border right now. Make Putin divert resources to prepare for a US invasion that never comes.

Cold Response 22

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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Wasabi the J posted:

Putin literally said he'd show the west genocide.

What, source?

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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I've spent the last four months training Ukrainian soldiers -medics- in "unnamed European country" under the auspices of SAG-U and honestly it's come close to breaking me a little bit. I've made and lost so many friends, and the next six months aren't looking to be better for that. It's hard to talk about, both because of classification of details beyond the public facts and also because no one really understands it when I try to talk to my civvie and military friends.

I don't really know why I'm posting here, but y'all are much more positive about the prospects than the CSPAM thread - and if I see one more 'lol' or similar under a tweet about some new Russian attack or procurement difficulty in Ukraine I might say something that'd get me banned- , and more likely to understand than DnD.
I just, well, does anyone have any predictions of an end to this insane poo poo in the near future to share? I'm so so tired already of seeing Signal numbers never come back online after someone rotates on to the zero line or hearing through the grapevine that so and so died or was injured in a strike. The attrition seems insane and I don't really see how this can end well for the people I've become so fond of.

I obviously can't share details about the training or the people who come to us, other than that many are some of the best I've met. Men and women who signed up to defend their homes, are making the best of it, and will do whatever they need to do to be able to go home.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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Handsome Ralph posted:

I don't really have much to add beyond what's already been posted, but you're doing good work that is saving lives. Thank you.

Thank you, and everyone else for the kind words. I'm here through the year and possibly beyond, but it was nice to just vent a little bit. I'm not on orders, this is duty I signed up for, but it's the most meaningful stuff I've done in uniform so far. Again, thanks everyone for cheering me up.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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A lot of civilian (and thus military since they to a large degree rely on using it) cell phone and telecoms infrastructure seems to have been hit in the Kherson area. Not a total blackout by any means, but severe degradation.
Probably something going on round there, or maybe a way to track which areas show the most activity through the degradation for future strikes, is a theory I've heard kicked around.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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Tear gas use (by both sides) is common knowledge at this point.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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Jasper Tin Neck posted:

Looks like the Russians have been able to expand the breach at Avdiivka into a larger breakthrough. It's progressing at a walking pace, but it could turn bad if they can take highway T-0504.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1786915509788610761

The lack of depth in Ukrainian fortifications was already noted on during winter. Contributing factors include:
  • between independence and 2005, engineering regiments had been reduced to four, with most of the equipment sold off. Efforts to build them up after the start of hostilities in 2014 have been slow.
  • a lack of theatre-wide coordination of fortification works. Each sector of the front plans their own fortifications and third lines of defence get little attention before they are needed.
  • a lack of construction materials or a system to procure civilian contractors to build third-line fortifications.
Despite a generally lacklustre record in arming Ukraine, Europe has good credit and a construction industry in recession, so it seems like a few thousand tracked excavators and prefab trench walls shouldn't be too difficult to procure.

They're not difficult to procure, the problem is they don't live very long. Drones range everywhere, especially in the places where a preparatory line would have to be built. A civillian excavator, even if you bolt on some armor somehow, won't last long when the FPV drones come. It's a huge, slow target with a lot of weaknesses. This is why trenches are mostly dug by hand at this point.
Also of course, a severe lack of a culture of wearing 'Forklift/Excavator Certified Badass' t shirts means they just don't have as many people who know how to do it.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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Murgos posted:

Seems like an easy way for the EU to drop in a couple $billion is to evaluate some probable defensive positions about 50 to 100 miles back and just build em out in the finest WW1 style with multiple fall back positions that are exposed from the rear and with facilities designed to withstand prolonged bombardments.

I mean EU construction crews and equipment.

Again, problems with this is how do you get EU construction crews to go there and do it? I guess if you pay them enough they might, but they'd be a target and honestly as far as legitimate targets go, they'd be one.
There's other stuff though, like the complete collapse of army morale 'oh, ok, so the EU came in and built positions 70 miles behind Kherson? awesome. We'll just keep on keeping on here meanwhile.'. There's a million more problems with an idea like that. I wish it was feasible though, I really do.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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Dick Ripple posted:

If the wages are good enough, finding people willing to do construction work in warzones will not be a problem.

I genuinely don't agree. This wouldn't be contractor work the green zone in Baghdad (I know that's not what you said) but working under constant threat of everything from a shahed, FPV or a glide bomb out of loving nowhere. Something like this can't be kept secret either, so the Russians would be all about making it untenable. When casualties aren't a maybe, but an absolute certainty I don't think you'd be able to hire people to do it.
Again, I'm all for it, it would be a genuinely good thing if it could be done, but the way the battlefield looks right now IMHO it's just theorycrafting because I really can't see it happening -if nothing else the PR nightmare in European nations would be insane after the first casualties.

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Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

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Jasper Tin Neck posted:

I can't imagine the equipment being regular hi-vis yellows and oranges helps with the drone issue either. In addition to olive drab paint, remote control conversion kits for heavy equipment do exist and they have obvious applications in demining as well, which could help keep certified lives out of drone range.

I don't think you can, but probably you don't need to either, just ship equipment and materials that aren't going into building stuff in Europe. Ukraine probably has enough construction workers to do the building.

Double posting, woop. Again, most construction workers are already in uniform, in the EU, 'dodging' the draft in Ukraine already or in essentials professions. There's not really a reserve army of labor standing around. Remote control is a good call though, though it doesn't negate the whole vulnerability thing. But it does save certified lives.

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