Ukraine: The straw that broke the camel's blyat

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The straw that broke the camel's blyat

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mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

hobbesmaster posted:

What a world.

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSSnAM1/

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSSEmnc/

Training jump or what? Don't see any rifles in the video and tiktok says it was uploaded a day ago.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 18:27

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 12:52

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

In the leadup to this invasion, the most striking detail to me, aside from all the OSINT plus other US IC saying "uh, they are not leaving, they are prepping even more," was Macron. Macron's office put out or leaked or whatever that Macron had met with Putin various times in the past and even when at odds it kind of made sense. Macron's take this past week was that Putin's mind just seemed cloudy or off and not laser focused the way he used to be. That may also be what has a lot of Russian senior folks also kind of surprised.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 18:35

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

US Berder Patrol posted:

The bluff is the assurances from the US that we will stand by our friends and allies and enforce the borders the way we like them drawn. In the context of Ukraine not being a NATO member, that means that they're going to be on their own if Russia actually invades. Putin has called the western establishment's bluff, I suppose.

What bluff are you referring to? NATO never claimed it was going to attack countries that attacked other countries that are outside of NATO. Unless I am missing some obscure thing, Ukraine is not an ally of the US or NATO. If the bluff is reference to 1994's trilateral agreements between Ukraine, Russia, and the US, okay, that makes more sense. Is that what you mean?

I do not agree that "the region was already a patchwork of conflicted borders and puppet states." Ukraine has quite a lot of history, even if someone were to only acknowledge post-USSR Ukraine. Kyiv, Kharkiv, etc, have not been parts of conflicting borders nor puppet state status. They've been heavily established as run by Ukraine and inside Ukrainian recognized borders.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 19:28

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

The President seemed a bit quicker than usual to keep himself on message and away from any tone that could come across as mocking or condescending.

US Berder Patrol posted:

What's Moldova? What's Belarus? Everybody is cool with where the lines are on the map of the Balkans? Abkhazia? I think you're just trying to sharpshoot me a little with this point

I am trying to talk in specifics about Ukraine and you�re using unspecific and imprecise generalities about nations that are not Ukraine. That makes it difficult to figure out what point of view you are conveying or argument you are making. I don�t have beef with you specifically, just trying to figure out what you are getting at.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 20:16

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

US Berder Patrol posted:

Well you're arguing that conflicted borders aren't a thing in Ukraine when Ukraine itself has conflicted borders due to all the Russian troops occupying parts of Ukraine and saying they are Russia,

Please don't just make poo poo up and grossly misrepresent what I have written in this thread over the past hour or two. We can just scroll up and see that. I am trying to figure out in good faith what your argument was. If you were just spit-balling some thoughts, fine, I do not need to respond to it.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 20:29

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

I just do not agree that the borders were in disarray and was a "patchwork of conflicted borders and puppet states." I think Ukraine is a nation and Kyiv is its capitol, and there's no real question at all about where the border lay or whether its a patchwork to be interpreted at will. Russia does not get to annex Crimea and portions of donbas and then have people say "See? No one even knows where the borders are really, I guess. What a patchwork!" That's not a take I agree with.

Especially in response to Russia announcing regime change goals.

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Feb 24, 2022

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 20:47

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

This is the opening of a thread that gives a general assessment:

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1496881025477226499?s=20&t=_mLzbDtYPywCPp_6XwvyIQ

# ¿ Feb 24, 2022 21:12

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

We are not flying F-22s over Ukraine. Also the most rapidly available F-22s just got deployed to UAE. Clancy poo poo.

Speaking of conspiratorial bullshit, what did he know?!

https://twitter.com/theweeknd/status/1496690244753641472?s=21

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 01:00

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Naked Bear posted:

I'm pretty sure we were all thinking something along those lines, that it'd take anywhere from a few days to a week. The Russian military should, in a vacuum, be able to roll up the Ukrainians without too much issue. Of course, wars are not fought in a vacuum and there are far too many other things going on for anyone to know with certainty how this will play out. It's early yet and things can still play out either way.

Even in public facing documents and speeches, after Donbas and Crimea, NATO et al became simultaneously a bit more worried about likelihood of Russian aggression, but became less impressed by Russian capability to actually mount and sustain operations.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 00:12

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Reading a 2016 analysis document about logistics probably doesn't make a whole ton of sense for understanding the battle as it rolls out. You might also read a US Army document about how important mental health and discipline are and then scratch your head about murders and suicides at Fort Bragg.

If you read the section on the offense, you do get a sense of why some of these units are operating independently, getting cut off, but sometimes showing up places the Ukrainians did not expect them and were not prepared for them. It goes into a bit of detail about the idea of assuming risk on security, bypassing, etc to try to keep up tempo, initiative, and firepower. Whether it's a great idea or not can be looked at in post-mortem, but it will make the combat make a bit more sense, especially if coming from the perspective not of US mil large-scale ops, but instead stability ops (Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, AFRICOM, etc).

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 16:23

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

psydude posted:

Latest out of the pentagon today (via the Guardian):

TLDR: Maybe Russia should have taken the Napoleonic Ratios more seriously.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497590265737097217

https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1497582099443986438

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497588560832208898

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1497587542002216962

Collectively points toward saying this is going worse for Russia than they planned, but is not at all the same as saying they lost.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 16:36

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Discussion Quorum posted:

Also: the Ukrainian defense is a shambles, the offensive is all going according to plan. See, this translated Soviet doctrine document I found will clear this all up.

That one's even better, because it's a 2016 Fort Leavenworth document analyzing Russian doctrine from a US perspective. The purpose is to instruct Americans and allies on how the west thinks Russia wants to fight. So if you read how that says it is supposed to go versus what is happening, you get what happens so often in any doctrine vs reality check. I mean, in US doctrine, you're not supposed to lose comms and get lost or bogged down in your convoy, but that poo poo happens plenty.

Instead they're just reading how it ought to go, then trying to find a way to confirm piecemeal highly imperfect tweets into "ah ha, this is all running perfectly. If anything, running out of fuel is a sign of too much Russian success!" Of course, plenty of pro-Ukraine people are taking it as a sign of success that random civilians are having to build molotov cocktails and running around with armbands on, which... well, it's not the same as instant capitulation, but it's not a great part of a modern defense...

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 03:04

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

3 months from now it will be "934th confirmed loss of an IL-76, this one was killed by our supermodel/sniper who specializes in scoped revolvers and also writes poetry"

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 03:18

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

And it�s not like every soldier gets issued a thermite grenade on the way out the motor pool.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 16:31

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

lightpole posted:

Please tell me theres an escape hatch cuz otherwise ugh

When you're suddenly inverted, water coming in, and possibly injured just from the fall... uh...

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 17:22

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

https://twitter.com/katiebolillis/status/1498264050089832448?s=21

Just miserable imagining that while dealing with such an outsized disaster beyond your control as some random civilian, systems and people are still working to gently caress you over for irrational bigoted reasons you 100% cannot change.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 15:40

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

I am not posting footage because it has more than a few of what appear to be dead civilians, but it does look like general area shelling starting to take place in Kharkiv. Russian forces had previously appeared to be comparatively careful about shelling civilian infrastructure en masse vs select strikes like power plants. Unclear if this is a local commander or points toward a shift in accepted risk and strategy.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 16:01

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Milo and POTUS posted:

Weren't the skies in the east full of drones after 2014, for both sides even. Why do they seem to be making so little use of them

There aren�t that many, generally speaking, on either side. Russia has lagged behind the armed UAV game a lot, unusually far compared to not just the US, but Turkey, Israel, etc. Ukraine has very little money for defense and drones.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 18:11

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

https://twitter.com/valerieinsinna/status/1498322565621862400?s=21

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 18:38

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2948793/senior-defense-official-holds-an-off-camera-press-briefing/

tl;dr, Russia still making forward progress but slow, Mauripol and Kharkiv at most risk of falling and potentially cutting off UKR forces in the East, airspace still contested, cannot confirm Chechen or Belorussian activation, cannot assess whether any of the observed Russian damage to civilians is deliberate or incidental to war, just under 75% commitment of forces pre-staged into Ukraine, no further mobilization observed in Russia.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 21:39

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

�Putin is insane� and other rhetorical arguments to say that the US or NATO should launch attacks in Russia don�t make any good sense. NATO is doing a lot to support a non-NATO nation under attack. NATO launching an aggressive attack on Russia would be an absurd escalation and would shatter NATO unity. NATO actions like that require unanimity. So it would just never happen, so really advocacy to attack Russia is advocacy for select states to deliberately break ranks with NATO policy and go it alone, hope it works and sacrifice their Article 5 protections.

You don�t get to attack a nation, then call for article 5 if they fight back, for example.

The admins of NATO, US, UK, et al are letting the economic and diplomatic ramifications run course; not everything is a nail requiring offensive hammers.

# ¿ Mar 2, 2022 15:41

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Cross-posting from Airpower/CW thread

US assessment remains that while logistics has not been �good� or even �OK� for Russia, Russia retains the combat power and time to adapt and solve their problems and continue toward their objectives. Basically an assessment that people who say actually this is going awesome for Russia are fools, but just because a huge army on the offense has a fuckup doesn�t mean the other side is not losing territory and facing a large amount of combat power.

Someone can assume US has their own spin, but for days now the DOD officials and Kirby in briefs have been cautioning that while Ukraine has by no means rolled over, instead fighting with vigor, that does not mean Russia is not making steady progress toward goals to seize territory.

quote:

SENIOR US DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We believe that the convoy is stalled. It's a long convoy, so I can't be perfectly predictive, Tara, on every mile of that, whether they're moving or not.

But they are not moving -- they are not moving at any rate that would lead one to believe that they've solved their problems. So we would characterize it as stalled. Again, we don't have perfect visibility into what's going on on the ground there.

But we believe that there's numerous factors for this.

One, the Ukrainians have been conducting a stiff resistance north of Kyiv. And we have some indications that they have also, at places and at times, tried to target this convoy.

Again, I can't tell you what that looked like. I can't quantify that. I'm just saying we have indications that they have also tried to slow that convoy themselves.

And as for the food and fuel, again, our assessment is that they are suffering shortages of both. I've seen nothing in the reporting that gives me confidence that they packed, you know, three days' worth of food. I can't corroborate that. But they continue to have significant logistical and sustainment challenges.

I will say again, as I've been saying now for many days, that we would expect that the Russians will, again, learn from these missteps and these stumbles and will try to overcome them. And I think our belief is that that is still the case.

And a note regarding those who keep focusing on land off major highways (not ITT there are very dumb twitter road maps online) that Russians do not control:

quote:

And on the coast, I mean, all I can tell you is, again, what we're seeing. We saw them move through this town of Berdyansk on the way to Mariupol. They are outside Mariupol on the coast, and we see today that they are attempting to go down from the north towards Mariupol to the south on the ground. How much of the Sea of Azov coastline they, quote/unquote, "control", I don't know. They used that coastline to move north out of Crimea, northeast of Crimea toward Mariupol. Whether they are holding coastline available to them, I don't know.

I think it's important to remember that it's our assessment that they continue to want to move on population centers. You know, we've been talking about these three axes of movement. They are all sort of aggregated towards major population centers. Mariupol is a major population center that we know they want, and so that seems to be their goal. I've seen nothing to indicate that their goal is to hold coastline, and it wouldn't be clear to me why they would do that anyway. There no maritime threat that they're facing from the Sea of Azov. So I don't know. To be honest with you, we don't know that they're holding the coastline, but what we have seen them do is consistent with a move on population centers like Mariupol.

on the topic of conscripts and how many forces have been committed:

quote:

On the C-Team question, again, we don't have a detailed understanding of the whole Russian order of battle. We've had a pretty good general sense and we've talked about that, but in terms of what units are commanded by what leaders and the mix of conscripts versus volunteers, we just don't know, except to say what we've said in the past, which is that this is a military largely made up of constricts. That's just the way that the national defense is staffed in Russia.

So it's not at all surprising to us that you're seeing a lot of conscripts, draftees, if you will, in this -- in this flow of forces. And -- and now, I would remind you, as I've said today, earlier, he's got 82 percent of the combat power that he had assembled for this war, 82 percent is already in Ukraine. So I don't know that it's a very valuable comparison to go by "well, it's whether that you've got less experienced and now more experienced" -- he has the vast majority of the combat power that he set out to use already inside Ukraine. So they're there.

Now I can't say how many of the leading elements were ill-trained conscripts versus more experienced soldiers.

Q: Just very briefly, do you see any evidence of the Russians preparing to send in reinforcements, backup, assembling further things back in Russia to be ready to reinforce?

SENIOR US DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No, we are not. And again, when I say that he's got 82 percent in there, I hope that we're not conveying to anyone that that means we think, you know, he's spent, like he's dwindling his options. Quite the contrary -- he's continuing to add to his options.

So please don't take away from the fact that he's got that much already in Ukraine, that somehow, you know, that he's in extremis when it comes to the combat capabilities that he has available to him. I will add, though, one of the things -- and this kind of gets to your question, I think -- is one of the things that we have been observing is that they don't appear to be integrating their combined arms capabilities to the degree that you would think they would do for an operation of this size and scale and complexity.

So, you know, all along, we've been talking for weeks about the combined arms capabilities -- armor, artillery, infantry, special operations, combat aviation, logistics sustainment. You know, he assembled all that stuff.

On the face of it, as we watch things unfold, in addition to seeing stiff and determined courageous resistance by the Ukrainians, in addition to seeing some logistical and sustainment issues, in addition to seeing a little bit of risk averse behavior, as we talked about yesterday, we are also seeing that the integration of these elements appears to be lacking.

I think the Russians have been taught a ton of hard lessons of ways they have hosed up this combat op, but that is a far stretch from saying UKR is �winning� militarily in the short term. Long term occupation is harder and requires too much going out on a limb. Personally, I think this attack by Russia was a very bad idea for them. They could have just not done it.

source transcript, from yesterday mid-US day. transcript takes a while to show up, but it�s way better in totality of context than select highlights thrown on twitter.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2952870/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

Also in there: DOD assessment is that civilian housing is being hit, but cannot assess whether that is incidental to targeting military objectives or deliberate. It�s easy to think �if apartment hit, it was on purpose and vs civilians,� but legally there�s a big difference between hitting an apartment building because there are AT teams in the windows versus hitting an apartment for the purpose of killing and terrorizing civilian noncombatants.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2022 15:50

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

its unlikely that Russia has any more forces to commit at this time.

�

Their success is largely down to lack of significant Ukrainian units in the Southeast and basically flooding in as many men as they can to overwhelm the Ukrainians in the East and North.

This assessment runs counter to US DOD statements.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2022 17:32

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Crosspost

Today's pentagon brief dropped. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2954139/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

Quote of opening comments, Q&A in the link

quote:

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Good morning, everybody. Senior defense official here.

Not a whole lot of specific changes to speak to today. Continue to see the general movement by Russian forces along those three lines of axes. We now assess that Mr. Putin has put in 90 percent of his pre-staged combat power across the border into Ukraine. Consistent with what you guys are all seeing in open-source press reporting, we also see and are observing heavy bombardment in the cities to the north and to the east, so that's Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kharkiv.

In general, we still assess that Russian forces are largely stalled across the north. That doesn't mean that they aren't making any progress, but in general they still appear to be largely stalled, is how we would characterize it.

In Kyiv, the Russian forces remain north and northwest of the city. And again, as you guys have all noted, there is increasing bombardment. In Kharkiv, we would assess that the Russian forces now appear to be just outside the city, very near the ring road. And again, as you guys are all observing, increasing bombardment there. In Chernihiv, we assess that they remain stalled to the north and to the northeast of Chernihiv, and again, bombardment is happening there.

In the south, we've seen reporting that Kherson is under Russian control, but we're not in a position to independently verify that. In the southeast, we observe, our assessment is that Mariupol is still under Ukrainian control, although we have seen and observe Russian forces advancing on Mariupol with, as I said yesterday, the apparent intention to isolate the city. And of course, as you guys have all seen, we've seen increasing bombardment. We still assess that they also are -- are trying to move and advance on Mariupol from the north, as well as from the coastline northeast of Berdyans�k. So they are still moving on Mariupol, but we assess that it is under Ukrainian control.

Nothing to speak you in the maritime environment. I know everybody's very fixated on Odessa. We don't have any naval activity to speak to or any moves by the Russians with respect to Odessa at this time. Obviously, we're watching as closely as we can, but we just haven't seen any appreciable activity.

Airspace over Ukraine remains contested, as yesterday. We assess that Ukrainian air and missile defense systems remain intact, and they remain effective. They continue to be able to fly their airplanes and to employ air defense assets. And as of this morning, we've now counted more than 480 Russian missile launches, again, of all sizes and strengths.

Now, I look, I know there's a lots of questions about other stuff, so let me just see if I can rip the Band-Aid off on some of these.

We cannot confirm reports of the use of cluster munitions. We cannot confirm reports of the presence or use of thermobaric weapons. We still assess that the convoy is that everybody's been focused on is stalled, and that we have no reason to doubt Ukrainian claims that they have contributed to it being stalled by attacking it. I have seen reports out there attributed to various U.S. officials about Stinger missiles. I can only say that we continue to provide Ukraine the systems that they need to defend themselves, and that includes best systems and weapons that they can use to deal with threats on the ground, as well as airborne threats, and that is as far as I'm going to go. I will not be confirming the reporting that I've seen out there.

With that, we'll start taking questions. Lita, it looks like you're up.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2022 21:57

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

That's what background briefings are. They are briefings that journalists may report as long as they do not name the specific person providing the information.

Edit: They are very different from an anonymous source or from a source unsanctioned by the organization where they work.

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Mar 3, 2022

# ¿ Mar 3, 2022 22:04

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

If I were Turkey, I probably would want the repair parts and contractors to keep flowing for my new SAMs.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2022 22:27

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Hyrax Attack! posted:

Over simplified question but are SU-25s roughly equivalent in their role to A-10s?

Over simplified answer: yeah

Main actual difference: A-10s have gained a bunch of weapons over the years to keep them outside of cannon range to make them a bit more survivable; SU-25s less so. Also SU-25s aren't slow as molasses.

# ¿ Mar 4, 2022 18:12

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

People are allowed to keep these bad thoughts to themselves.

https://twitter.com/eoinhiggins_/status/1499567290836205571?s=21

# ¿ Mar 4, 2022 19:57

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

After 2014, a bunch of the assessments going around the Army were essentially, supremely simplified, �Not as dysfunctional as after 90s collapse, dangerous/desperate, but 2014 shows their logistical tail and ability to sustain operations is bad�

# ¿ Mar 5, 2022 15:45

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

FrozenVent posted:

How does anyone see Russia�s terms and think any of it is reasonable?

This is akind to Mexico coming in, taking Texas, Arizona and New Mexico and saying �alright Biden can stay but we pick Pelosse and Schumer�s replacements.�

This has been the end of a lot of wars, to be honest. It is not acceptable to Ukraine's leadership, but a lot of wars have ended with "most of us will leave, but you need a new government we architect," before.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2022 16:38

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

bees everywhere posted:

Putin: "If you stop resisting and spread your legs, I'll only rape you a little bit."

We can discuss this issue without such metaphors.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2022 16:38

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Flesnolk posted:

How does Russia keep losing generals? US generals are never anywhere near the front lines these days.

The Vietnam War was when the US last lost several general officers. The majority of these flag officers were killed in aviation incidents including B-52s colliding mid-air, being shot down while flying combat missions in fighters, all manners of helicopter death (combat and otherwise), small arms fire, and illness.

MG Greene was killed in Afghanistan several years back. I believe he was the only flag officer killed in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 06:15

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Crosspost

mlmp08 posted:

Zelensky is much more open to a potential compromise with Putin now, it sounds.

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1501192869054492672

https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/zelenskyy-interview-david-muir-reporting-abc-news-exclusive-83309456

ABC News interview with Zelensky above. He says he is open to security agreements and compromise on "pseudo-republics" and how they will live on, focusing more on the future treatment or migration of pro-Ukrainian people who are inside these areas rather than the borders of these areas themselves. Zelensky assistance against aerial attacks are his greatest problem where he is asking for US help, pointing to bombing, rockets, missiles, shells and that Ukraine does not control the sky. He suggests that the US should be able to assist with [cruise] missile defense without shooting down manned aircraft.

He really leans into the argument that if Ukraine is left on its own, then NATO, etc will be targeted second. He's pretty sarcastic/bitter about the rest of the world "having time" to watch Ukraine lose territory and people and control of its power stations.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 16:57

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

Why would anyone trust a security agreement with Putin given what is going on right now?

A shaky deal and a few to many years/seasons of not being shelled is probably better than having cities with millions of people in them surrounded and shelled and starved and cut off from water and power. Winning city sieges has happened plenty of times in history. It has almost always sucked horribly. Mariupol is in extremely dire straits. Odessa is under threat. Kyiv continues to get hit. This war sucks a lot for Ukraine. Maybe there will be no agreement, but Zelensky is stating that he has changed from his stance of "no deal" he adopted earlier in the war.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 17:02

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

Russia has already repeatedly offered ceasefires and then FIRED on the evacuation routes and mined them. So why would this time be different?

Ask Zelensky, I am just posting a link to a video of him talking to an ABC reporter and providing a few snippets.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 17:05

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

They've offered evacuation and 'humane ceasefires' like 3 times now, only to shell the routes and mine them. That's my point. Maybe its for internal consumption or Duma consumption.

He is talking about compromise to end the war, not a no-fire-zone in an active warzone. The humanitarian corridors and ending the war are two separate topics.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 17:10

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Marshal Prolapse posted:

Yes, but it�s still Russia.

If the consensus is that it is literally impossible to negotiate any end with Russia, that the only two outcomes are total defeat or total victory, this is very bad news for Ukraine.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 17:12

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

It is possible that both Zelensky and Putin would like to stop losing troops, and equipment and economic calamity, and Zelensky in particular would like to stop losing civilians to death and emigration and to stop losing civil infrastructure.

This could cause either of them to eventually accept terms, even if they are interim terms, that do not satisfy sideline watchers who want to see a black and white VICTOR screen pop up on twitter for one side or the other.

It's also possible it all results in weeks or months or years more of miserable slog warfare.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 17:24

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

Again: when Russia does honor a humane evacuation route, I'll believe it, right now we have Russian forces mining possible evac routes, shelling both the routes and civilian buildings, and videos of Russian forces shooting civilian cars and murdering civilians

Again: I do not control Ukraine�s foreign policy. I am just linking to a video of Zelensky so you can hear his own words and trying to explain why Zelensky might be making this shift. He knows a hell of a lot more about the situation in Ukraine than I do.

Some sort of compromise has generally been expected since the outset, with a lot of less partial observers predicting that this would shock or surprise the people mostly seeing the infowar via Twitter.

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 17:36

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 12:52

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

US DOD briefing going on now (not broadcast).

https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1501241427187179521?s=21

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 18:09

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The straw that broke the camel's blyat

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