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Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

My wife is friends with a lady from Kyiv who is currently fleeing for her life together with her mom with little more than the clothes on their backs. They're heading for the Polish border. We're looking to see if we can paypal them some money once they get there. poo poo is hosed up.

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Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Gearing up for Grozny 2.0

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497177195609010179?s=19

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Powerful big balls energy.

https://twitter.com/peedutuisk/status/1497310882069581824?s=19

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Still not seeing any pictures or verification of that Il-76 that the Ukrainians claim to have shot down, just a whole lot of twitter accounts echoing the same thing. Brutal if true though.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005


This, combined with the fact that the Russians are already warcriming it up, makes me feel really very not good.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497378245683163142

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Looks like Russia is getting booted from SWIFT

edit: Partially, at least?

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1497694500847767555

Nuclear Tourist fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Feb 26, 2022

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

That Works posted:

What is Swift exactly?

It's a Belgian LLC that serves as the global standard intermediary for transactions between banks in different countries.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Bears are airborne, probably.

https://twitter.com/te3ej/status/1497750781633736706

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Ukrainians are rolling out prototype vehicles to fight the Russians.

https://twitter.com/Mukhtarr_MD/status/1497637375521931265

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

I know there were people earlier in this thread that said that there's not a chance in hell that this goes nuclear. I hope you're right.

https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1497926329844568073

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005


I'm feeling nauseous. Wife is talking to her friend in Kyiv over WhatsApp. She's currently sheltering in a subway station and telling my wife that Russians are firing at civilians trying to flee the city. This could get super ugly real fast.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Jesus gently caress. I guess Putin's lifespan is probably single digits of days at this point.

Wouldn't be surprised if he makes it through this unscathed, but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Just watched German chancellor Scholz address to the Bundestag in full, about doubling their defense budget, sending lethal aid to Ukraine and clamping down in every conceivable way to ensure that Russia is as isolated as possible in every way possible. Complete 180 from a week or two ago (I think? Things are moving so fast I'm losing track of time) when Nord Stream 2 was still very much a thing that was going to happen. Also got the vibe that he kinda sorta telegraphed that everyone should brace for what could be a very long and ugly conflict. He kinda looked like he had just seen a ghost.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Madurai posted:

Regarding Russian vehicle markings: I saw this explanation offered, and have no idea as to its veracity

Z - east forces
Z in rectangle - Crimea forces
O - units from Belarus direction
V - Russian Marines, but also seen on BMD vehicles
X - Chechens
A - special forces

We can probably add "red square - Belarusian forces" to that list soon. There's footage making the rounds on twitter et al of large columns of Belarusian troops lined up and ready to roll into Ukraine, and they all appear to have red squares painted on their vehicles.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Anyone heard anything further re: Russians using Bears and/or Blackjacks to take out arms and supply shipments from nato & western countries?

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Haven't even heard of it happening at all.

Seeing a pretty steady stream of tweets along these lines:

https://twitter.com/vpnewsodia/status/1498110929099051008
https://twitter.com/LKNFTFLIP/status/1498068432935399428

I realize that they're probably cruise missile platforms, but couldn't they theoretically be kitted out for carpet bombing supply convoys that are being trucked into Ukraine from the Polish border? If you have even a few miles of backed up traffic all loaded up with ATGMs and ammo, that would be unpleasant.

This is just pure speculation on my part.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Wasabi the J posted:

That one is doing flybys low and slow to make that loving sound scare people.

Ok sure, but wouldn't they still be flying way over the ceiling of MANPADs if they were to do a bombing run across the Ukrainain side of the border?

edit:

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1498428447097556995

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Russia is pulling diplomats out of a LOT countries right now, even though airspace over most of Europe is strictly verboten for Russian planes as of now, it seems a few are being allowed in to retrieve embassy staff.

https://twitter.com/DrBrandonHenry/status/1498522879654346753

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

holy hell

https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1498861748576821250?s=20&t=XvxzB-3iIuPVB2FeDYSrSw

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Them and BP, or was there another one?

Shell is getting the gently caress out as well.

TotalEnergies, the French petroleum giant, is staying put in Russia for now but the French government is "to discuss Total's presence in Russia with its CEO" and it "has no capital for new projects".

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

psydude posted:

They're repeating their performance from The Winter War, but with a modern take.

While it's easy to make fun of the ineptitude of the Russian invasion, the fact is that they're still making steady if slow progress in south and northeast Ukraine. At this rate I imagine we'll probably see the Russians eventually capturing all major population centers within a few weeks, probably after most of them have been pounded into rubble by nonstop MLRS barrages. We're also finally starting to see Su-34 sorties from the Russian side after their air force being mysteriously absent for the most part, and I imagine what air assets the Ukrainians have left (including drones) are severely degraded which is probably why that giant 40-mile column of death bearing down on Kyiv has been left largely untouched.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

psydude posted:

I agree with you for the most part, but the longer it drags on, the more time the West has to resupply the Ukrainians. For example, they just tweeted this morning that they're receiving additional drones from Turkey. From what I can surmise, Ukraine hasn't committed all of its forces to the front lines yet. Some of that is practical - keeping supply lines open, but some of it clearly seems to be waiting for the Russians to push on Kiev.

I also suspect that, as some people have suggested, Ukraine is deliberately leaving the convoy alone and letting attrition eat away at it while they prepare/counter the more concerted Russian push from the North East.

I can only hope you're right.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Oh for sure, I imagine that the governments of all countries that share land borders with Russia, except maybe China, are currently asking themselves who's next on the hit list if the Russian steamroller isn't halted in Ukraine.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Ukrainian SOF do not appear to be very happy with the Russians for demolishing apartment blocks with MLRS barrages.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1499090277197357056

Translation via google lens:

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Milo and POTUS posted:

Elton John getting worried.

Okay now that the subject has been tangentially mentioned, does anyone know the cat ownership rate of ukrainians? I've tried looking it up well before this whole thing and while I can readily find total numbers I can't find percentages. I know Russians have an astounding number at like 60% and I was wondering if the Ukrainians did likewise. I've found one article that might mention it but it's paywalled and surprisingly hard to find info on otherwise

I imagine it's similar. There's already numerous pictures floating around of people sheltering in the Kyiv subway with both cats and dogs.

https://twitter.com/yamphoto/status/1499145276069756933
https://twitter.com/futurmrsmin/status/1498354009404579842
https://twitter.com/juliabeaudett/status/1498699505075642381

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005


That thread has some interesting replies.

https://twitter.com/KarlMuth/status/1499185800172474371

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

bennyfactor posted:

Sorry for not listening to a podcast, but what the gently caress? The Russians blew up something in the Czech Republic in recent years? Like, not 1968?

Yes

Also:

https://twitter.com/iAmTheWarax/status/1499154073014185985

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Jimmy Smuts posted:

Is this Winter War 2.0? Because man these guys seem to not know wtf they're doing. And it's confirmed that a lot of them didn't even know they'd be fighting Ukrainians.

Global warming has ensured that it is Spring Mud War. Seems like it was a mild winter.

I'm actually curious what the long-term environmental impacts of this will be, assuming the war and sanctions will drag on for many years. On one hand, I realize that a major land war like this is Extremely Not Good for the environment. And if fighting goes on into the summer, I wouldn't be surprised if it kicks off some major wildfires.

On the other hand, several petroleum giants (Exxon, Shell, BP, maybe more?) are pulling out of Russia, so wouldn't a lot more fossil fuel stay in the ground? And the very active Russian domestic aviation industry has maybe a month of life left before flights start becoming very scarce due to lack of maintenance/parts.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Mr. Nice! posted:

There are no winners here. Everyone involved is going to be worse off when it is all said and done. War is hell, and no one should be cheering for death.

We can all hope for a quick end to hostilities, but it seems short of complete and total surrender of Ukraine to Russian dominance or Putin getting whacked that the pain everyone is feeling will continue for a long time.

I think this poo poo is going to drag on for a while, unfortunately.

I am unfortunately getting the same impression. Barring something miraculous happening, this is likely going to be an endless meat grinder of a conflict.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499388513996787714?t=_SGWNJe29HrQfZ5n0oeKyQ&s=19

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

Regarding Russian threats against Sweden and Finland, was there ever confirmation of that? It came up in the DnD thread and Finn/Swede Goons said zero local news agencies had mentioned it and it sounded like bullshit.

I believe Lavrov demanded "security guarantees" from Sweden and Finland, and Su-27's out of Kaliningrad briefly violated Swedish airspace the other day.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Saw this photo dump floating around on the combat footage subreddit:



In it was this picture:



I've been trying to figure out what that shrink-wrapped car to the left is. It looks like an expensive and fast coupe, at first I thought it was a Mercedes SLS AMG, with that sloping rear, big wheel and the way the rear view mirror is positioned. But the rocker panel on those look a bit different, I think, unless it's some aftermarket thing :thunk:

edit: for reference

Nuclear Tourist fucked around with this message at 06:55 on Mar 4, 2022

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Ataxerxes posted:

Yeah, the Karelian Ishtmus. The issue popped up a few times during the Cold War but nothing concrete got done. There is a joke in Finnish, "Let's take back Karelia!(bottle by bottle)" since Karelia is also a beer brand.

I always got a case of Karjala in the tax free shop when I went on Viking Line cruises, half a lifetime ago. Good stuff.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

A Festivus Miracle posted:

I keep seeing this endless meme either expecting, encouraging, or assuming that Putin is going to die via a bullet from one of his cronies.

Look, this is a nice fantasy, and I kind of like it too. But the truth is, Putin is not the leader of Russia because he is the most gullible bastard out there. The Russian State Apparatus, like most dictatorships, is built around subservience to the dictator. Every single chain on the ladder owes its loyalty to Putin, usually through relations of money and influence. Think less Hitler running Germany and more Saddamn running Iraq. The entirety of the state is built in such a way as to prevent leadership change and move the benefits of the state to the loyal partners and supporters of the regime. That's how dictatorships operate: reward the people who are the pillars of your regime, destroy dissent, be incredibly distrustful to the point of paranoia.

Could Putin be unseated by something like a palace coup? Totally, but that wouldn't happen until things got extremely bad and by then Putin would be wary enough to know to watch for plotting. Could Putin be unseated by popular revolution? I don't think so. Venezuela is a country that has been in arguably worse economic straits than Russia for years, and yet Maduro is still 'running' the country in the same way Sears still has a CEO.

The only way that Ukraine wins this war is to prolong the conflict as long as possible. There is no way that I see that Putin will be removed from power.

This is the outcome I'm envisioning as well. There are some notable exceptions, but Soviet and Russian leaders have a long and proud history of staying in power until they sometimes quite literally die of old age despite instigating multiple horrific bloodbaths.

I hope this all ends soon, but I'm bracing for years of looking at my twitter feed and seeing apartment blocks being blown to bits by rocket artillery and wrecked Russian tanks.

Nuclear Tourist fucked around with this message at 05:59 on Mar 5, 2022

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Downtown Lviv

https://twitter.com/joelw_762/status/1499779442616545283

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Tiny Timbs posted:

The US and Europe are 100x more involved in this than I ever thought they would be. Russia's economy has been annihilated and modern arms and aid are flooding into Ukraine.

I keep thinking that if Ukraine survives this they'll probably be armed to the absolute teeth for the next thousand years, and have a very capable foreign legion.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

I need to stop spending every waking moment reading about this war. My brain is starting to feel like a fried egg. What a complete horror show.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Very awkward.

https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1501333459972800527?s=19

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

So how long before Russia starts using chemical weapons? I'm guessing not long.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Softface posted:

https://twitter.com/remilitari/status/1502012187627433986?s=20&t=sOJ-5aWdRbqvo78lcAKPuQ

Spokesman's statement is total nonsense, of course, but I feel this is priming the pump domestically to justify employing bio or chem weapons.

I don't even understand why they bother with this type of charade anymore. They obviously intend to use chemical/biological weapons, so why don't they just use them and retain some semblance of surprise instead of spelling out what they intend to do with this awkward high school theatre acting?

Nuclear Tourist fucked around with this message at 06:54 on Mar 11, 2022

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Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

psydude posted:

The Guardian reporting that a NYT journalist was shot and killed by Russian forces in Irpin. No word yet on who it was, but it was a NYT team that documented the death of that family by mortar fire in Irpin.

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1502988753165561857

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