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G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

There's a bunch of good preview content floating around mls soccer dot com and the athletic and some other places, this is a pretty nice summary of the state of things though (sub required): https://theathletic.com/3149519/2022/02/25/welcome-to-mls-season-27-where-one-key-factor-could-supercharge-the-next-four-years/.

Here is 538's opening projections:



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/

And opening MLS Cup odds:

quote:

MLS Cup 2022 odds – Week 1
Team Odds
T-1. LAFC +700
T-1. New England Revolution +700
T-1. Seattle Sounders +700
4. New York City FC +1000
5. Sporting Kansas City +1200
T-6. Philadelphia Union +1600
T-6. Atlanta United +1600
T-6. Colorado Rapids +1600
T-6. LA Galaxy +1600
T-10. New York Red Bulls +2000
T-10. Columbus Crew +2000
T-12. Nashville SC +2500
T-12. Minnesota United FC +2500
T-12. Portland Timbers +2500
T-12. Orlando City SC +2500
T-12. Toronto FC +2500
17. Inter Miami CF +4000
T-18. DC United +5000
T-18. Chicago Fire FC +5000
T-18. FC Dallas +5000
T-18. Real Salt Lake +5000
T-22. Vancouver Whitecaps FC +6600
T-22. Austin FC +6600
T-22. CF Montréal +6600
T-22. Charlotte FC +6600
T-22. San Jose Earthquakes +6600
T-27. FC Cincinnati +10000
T-27. Houston Dynamo FC +10000

I look forward to LAFC being overrated all season yet again, and betting against them most weeks. Nashville looks like the best MLS Cup value on the board to me. I think Chicago and Dallas could surprise some people. I dunno if anyone else here is degenerate enough to bet on MLS but I think there tends to be some good value out there in game lines, if you factor in the ...eccentricities of MLS that don't necessarily map to models that work across other leagues. The 538 odds really highlight how much parity and unpredictability MLS has though, relative to every other league in their model.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Houston is finally heading in the right direction, or at least a direction - Segal seems willing to spend and there seems to be a desire to actually develop young players too. Long road to go and Houston should be firmly bottom half of the table, but at least worth caring about again.

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G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

All 4 teams who competed in CCL during the week lost this weekend, scoring 0 goals and conceding 7.

Vancouver and cincinatti seem bad

Some things never change

edit: next thread title should be As team captain I want to apologize and take full responsibility for what happened last week

https://twitter.com/LuchoAcosta94/status/1498377453483565056

G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Mar 1, 2022

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

ESPN has a long standing policy of not cutting off live sports for other sports, it happens across various leagues and sports all the time. MLS fans take extreme offense to it but its not really a big deal (and it prevents what Fox did the other day) The vast majority of matches are going to be only available by streaming anyway so I'd prefer its on a reliable streaming platform full of other good content like ESPN+ and not banished to some lovely service that no one has.

I really hope ESPN keeps MLS but I suspect ESPN isn't gonna pay as much as MLS is looking for and its gonna end up with turner or amazon or some poo poo.

ive seen some reports that a MLS deal will be done by the end of march so we'll find out I guess

edit: https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Closing-Bell/2022/03/01/Turner-soccer.aspx

confirmed now, USSF getting 25-27m a year for English rights, it goes through 2030. HBO Max will stream all of the games live. TBS and TNT have committed to carry about half of them, which will be simulcast on HBO Max. This means that HBO Max will carry around 10 games per year exclusively.

G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 21:04 on Mar 1, 2022

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

https://twitter.com/LuisOmarTapia/status/1498776071344377856

Hector Herrera reportedly signing with Houston, will join in the Summer. Biggest signing in club history, if accurate.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

https://theathletic.com/3162180/202...und-the-league/

This anonymous MLS exec survey is probably one of the more in depth pieces I've seen on MLS and many of its peculiar rules. The 1st half is mostly just a straight survey which is fine too but the open ended 2nd half touches on a lot of interesting topics.

A lot if it is around the MLS roster and spending rules and how executives think the guard rails at this point are dated, needlessly complex, and holding back (some) teams. General sentiment is that no one thinks MLS is ready to go full wild west, but that over the next few years a lot of the current restrictions should be loosened or jettisoned, otherwise the byzantine nature is going to increasingly prevent MLS from progressing.

The executive sentiment is best summarized by this:

quote:

“I mean, GAM, TAM, what the gently caress?,”

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

Popero posted:

God I love MLS.

Here's like the 3rd different manager in 2 weeks bitching to a reporter about his squad being bad

https://twitter.com/cboehm/status/1499441454791471123?s=19

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

Couple of nice goals this weekend

https://twitter.com/MLS/status/1503408029424881671?s=19

I'm glad Houston is at least competent enough to beat Vancouver at home

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1504091535578648581?s=19

Houston have apparently signed thiaguinho on loan with a buy option. Seems like a perfectly fine low risk/cost move. He has had limited minutes at a senior level so no idea if he's useful, but Houston has been after him for a bit so hopefully the scouts know something. I'd be good with a few more flyers like this for Houston while they're rebuilding.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

https://theathletic.com/3194631/2022/03/18/mls-media-rights-deal-not-likely-to-be-a-game-changer-sources-say/

Not the best update overall here -

quote:

The main linear broadcasters at the table are current MLS partners ESPN and Univision, the sources said, though neither appears to be interested in offering a paradigm-shifting deal for a league that has long struggled to attract strong viewership.

The sources expect that ESPN will end up with a deal to carry a similar number of matches on its family of networks as it does in the current agreement.

Univision, multiple sources said, is keener on the new Leagues Cup tournament that will begin in 2023 than it is in airing MLS regular season or playoff contests, but it will likely end up with the primary Spanish-language rights to both.

All were also in agreement that it’s unlikely MLS receives a huge rights fee from American linear broadcasters this time around. A streaming partner coming in with a lucrative offer could change the overall calculus, but sources said not to expect a wild increase in the overall number. Some sources speculated that the all-in total from American broadcasters will be in the ballpark of $200 million per year. Others expect the annual sum to fall closer to $150 million.

A bunch more in the article, but those are the topline points. Theres also major problems around who would actually pay for production for the massive pile of other matches that no one seems to particularly want very much. It sounds likely we're going to get something fairly similar to the status quo, at least for the next few years, for better or worse. The simple fact is MLS tv ratings are pretty bad, and I'd guess streaming numbers don't look great either, and no one seems particularly eagerly to fork over a bunch of money. Teams are likely going to see only a modest increase in tv revenue based on this, which will also probably mean salary caps aren't going to substantially change soon. I know MLS is really focused on using the 2026 world cup as a launch pad for the league, and hopefully it works, but TV/streaming deals along these lines aren't going to do much to accelerate growth to any degree.

G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Mar 18, 2022

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

Edward Mass posted:

What about secondary English-language broadcaster? Is it still Fox Sports, or is someone else?

The article suggested no clear bid as of now but one source was basically like I'd guess fox comes in for a similar package as they have now. So maybe?

The bigger issue is that all the non national TV games, which no teams have local TV deals lined up as of now. And no one seems super interested in producing them all. And it seems like streaming services aren't as excited as mls hoped about a massive pile of soccer matches between mls, the leagues cup, and mls next pro.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

binge crotching posted:

We're only about 20% of the way through the season, but 5 of the 7 playoff spots in the West are currently held by teams that missed the playoffs entirely last year.

one of the eastern playoff spots is currently occupied by a team that didnt exist last year, and their manager gave us the the thread title just before the season

Also, the supporters shield and mls cup winner last year currently occupy 12th and 13th in the east respectively

Major league soccer

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

im gonna be annoyed if MLS rights end up on basically the only plausible service or network I don't have for other things (appletv+)


it seems increasingly likely though that MLS isn;'t going to get the kind of money they were hoping for. The absolutely atrocious TV ratings so far this season likely are not helping.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

binge crotching posted:

As for TV ratings, MLS needs to just start doing what MLB does, and only show the good/popular teams on the nationwide broadcasts. Pretty much every national broadcast for baseball is one of the Red Sox/Yankees/Dodgers, and it's because they are the most popular, as well as some of the best.

No one wants to watch Dallas at San Jose. Or any game at Yankee Stadium. But if MLS starts only having the big crowds in Portland/Seattle/LA/Atlanta as the home teams on the broadcasts, people will start seeing the crowds, thinking it looks interesting, and then TV ratings might start going up again.

It might also completely backfire, but at least we'll get to watch entertaining games on the national broadcasts. Consistent broadcast days/times would also help a hell of a lot, as would actually having the game start shortly after the broadcast begins, and not 30-40 minutes later. Pregame shows should be a separate event, not the first 30 minutes of the listed broadcast.

I dont really want to get into a big europe vs mls derail and i say this as a mls fan but

This is what MLS tries to do, the challenge is that because of some combination of lack of stars, the low salary cap, enforced parity, and international competition, there are not clear cut good/popular teams in the sense that other leagues or sports have them. I understand the reasons why and there are merits to the way MLS does things, especially in terms of financial sustainability, but its really not a league currently structured to deliver high tv ratings, and unfortunately tv money is a very important revenue driver for sports.

Having good crowds helps but it only gets you so far and to an extent is more novelty than a long term draw. From a national perspective, there just arent cant miss teams or cant miss games. If you look at a weeekend schedule its often hard to even say which games neutrals should watch.

Theres better quality soccer on tv than mls nearly everyday, with players that casual fans know more, identifiable storylines and stakes, and its very easy to identify who the best teams to watch are. City vs liverpool is the national tv red sox vs yankees game to casual fans. Or chelsea vs madrid. Or whichever combo of big european teams is on each week. Its very hard for mls to make the case why portland vs seattle should be instead, unless you live in the pacific northwest. Thats the tv ratings problem.

G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Apr 14, 2022

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1515003912872419329

pretty healthy fee there, especially with sell on fees. 5th or 6th largest outbound MLS fee ever.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

I wouldn't mind seeing Bayern even if it is a friendly, but personally I would rather pay for tickets to 2-3 DC United MLS matches for the same price. If it was somewhere without a MLS team, that would be a different story but if you're in DC you can see soccer every week.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

Edward Mass posted:

Rapids acquiring Zardes from Columbus for some Garberbux.

this seems really sensible for colorado. grats to cbus on selling low i guess

i say that not as a big zardes fan or anything but colorado really needed a striker and got an at worst serviceable MLS striker for a small pile of garber bucks

G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Apr 22, 2022

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

https://twitter.com/JohnHayesOnAir/status/1531739373875740675?s=19

I guess karol swiderski runs a mls team now

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

i have mixed opinions on this, its a very good number to get guaranteed for MLS, especially if it actually scales at all.

Apple+ is not exactly my preferred platform but I do like it all being on one platform and the end of regional blackouts. This will obviously substantially cut the TV rights deal they get, but still once you stack it we're looking at a high end of what MLS was aiming for.

I will be interested to see how well apple does on production and such, with no real baseline for what to expect. Also curious to see what pricing looks like.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

its good for MLS but 250 million leaguewide isn't really that much money and realistically they still need to scrap together as much as they can off the TV deal as well.

I would also like them to prioritize broad distribution with the natl tv deals, but the streaming money doesn't go that far when you split it among 30 something teams

quote:

Along with the new deal, the league announced a new schedule on Tuesday. All games will be played on Wednesday and Saturday nights when possible.
edit: I'm not particularly thrilled with the league scheduling even more matches on wednesday and saturday night however. What exactly is the point of a leagewide streaming package if all the games are at the same time? I generally prefer matches to be on Sunday anyway, or Saturday afternoon, or Friday evening even. A bunch of saturday night kickoffs are fine, and obviously in the summer earlier kick-offs are a bad idea in a lot of places...but in my opinion this is the exact opposite of what they should do.

G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Jun 14, 2022

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

quote:

Yeah, I'm less thrilled with the scheduling but people want consistency about "when's the soccer on" and this is a way to get that. Given that games will be spread across, what, three or four time zones (plus they're still leaving open the possibility of moves for whatever national broadcasters they get + venue conflicts) I'm pretty sure that there'll still be a decent spread of times.
I'm fairly skeptical the whens soccer on thing is a real issue, given its actually on pretty much all the time, just different leagues, competitions, etc - many of which outdraw MLS consistently. The attendance side of things may be different story. I just don't see a particular reason why they've settled on Saturday nights, personally I'd prefer basically any other time of the weekend, or just more spread out. It is what it is I guess.

Ciprian Maricon posted:

The current deal is 90 Million, 250M is huge, its more than ESPN pays for La Liga, its more than Turner paid for the NHL, its an insane amount of money for a product that no one loving watches, and its only a minimum.

I totally agree its a huge improvement, but you're still talking about what, 8 million or so per team? That extra 5mil a year isn't radically altering finances in a way where MLS is suddenly all set or anything, they still need to squeeze as much as they can out of a tv deal. It supports the continued growth and stability of the league and is a big win though.

G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 23:32 on Jun 14, 2022

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

harperdc posted:

I think it’s less “when’s soccer on” and more “when’s MLS on,” and if you can minimize the number of broadcast windows it’ll help to build that date equity. It’s what the NFL has with its Sunday windows, and single games on other days. And having all the games with no blackouts really helps.

But the NFL has been heading in the opposite direction (as has college football), spreading into the week with more games on Monday and Thursday, and they do Saturdays when college wraps. I just think its a dated concept and isn't really how people watch sports now - And i'm not sure why MLS would pick competing against prime time college football (among other things) during the season run in and playoffs as their time slot where they think they can build an audience.

G-Hawk fucked around with this message at 13:58 on Jun 15, 2022

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

Edward Mass posted:

It's gotten worse!!!!!

toronto+1.5 at +110 is my bet :shrug:

lafc and san jose today seem like good bets too

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

whypick1 posted:

This did not happen because betting on Toronto this year is stupid and G-Hawk is probably the biggest degenerate in this thread for gambling on MLS in the first place.

I will bet on any mls team at those odds even toronto

But yes betting on mls and ufc simutaneously unlocks a new degenerate gambling app where you are offered odds on mls next pro and eagle fighting

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

just sitting out here dreaming about a nashville vs kansas city cup final

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1540709056880381958

the not a DP part is interesting

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

LAFC suddenly look like MLS cup favorites (in so much as there is one with the playoff format). They're top of the league, Chileni is old as poo poo but I can't see him hurting, and I don't think Bale is totally washed. Curious to see if anyone else adds anything substantial this summer.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

whypick1 posted:

Defense is apparently optional in the league now

The recent increase in transfer fees into mls has tilted the league more toward attacking in terms of talent balance i think

A lot of the league is spending like 5 or 10mil to buy wingers or strikers or attacking midfielders fairly often now and its adding up. Go look at yesterdays scoresheets and its full of recent expensive incoming players

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

Edward Mass posted:

Ladies and germs, we have a new benchmark with LAFC/D.C. United.

on the one hand, betting on dc united is dumb as hell. on the other hand, no mls team should ever be -520

a conundrum. maybe i'll bet dc united+2.5 lol

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003


this is a big deal and whichever teams plow money into youth scouting are gonna run the league in 10 years

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

in case you missed it,

https://twitter.com/JDNalton/status/1566693941138923520

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

apparently Houston has sacked Nagamura

https://twitter.com/soccermattersGD/status/1566912169375109120

He was kind of an uninspiring hire and I don't think has done anything to convince, but I also am not sure he has done much wrong and was handed a pretty big turn around job. I guess i'm fine with sacking him but im curious if they have someone else teed up already

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

...Granted, with the state of Atlanta this season, Pineda could be out the door first anyway. Maybe Atlanta can bring back Tata after Mexico sack him in December

I wouldn't be surprised if Martinez is playing elsewhere (outside the U.S.) next year though.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

it seems annoyingly complex and hard for casual fans to follow which mls is hard enough as it is for casuals to follow

i would like more emphasis on the regular season not less, but i know that is a losing battle. but this format is just silly

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

I continue to absolutely hate stacking the matches on the same time slot on Saturday night, it makes absolutely no sense to me, but I guess it is what it is and I'll just end up being able to watch less matches. It also means if you actually attend a match you're effectively missing all of the other ones.

The rest sounds fine, though i suspect there will be a lot of tech issues out the gate given how rushed it will be.

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G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

https://twitter.com/MLSist/status/1586109211444154368

boy, i dunno

apparently onstad wanted him last year before Nagamura, so I guess he got his guy

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