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I’m less worried about global thermonuclear war, more about tactical nukes. The calculus of the war is starting to make the latter sound at least likely enough to be a worst case scenario. From limited strike to global war there’s a few but rather big steps that need to happen, which just need too many irrational actors for it to work. The more obvious thing, nuke or not, is that unironically the world is now trending towards Clancyfication. Military budgets are scaling up, trust is limited, and now that the long peace is shattered we can expect a return to the paranoia of the Cold War. This is even in the case of a best case armistice between Ukraine and Russia. The damage is already done.
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Mar 5, 2022 11:19
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fnox posted:which just need too many irrational actors for it to work. It's 2022.
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Mar 5, 2022 11:28
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Mazed posted:I hate that we decided to call it Clancy chat instead of Metal Gear chat Metal Gear?
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Mar 5, 2022 11:31
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Clancy-chat predictions for how this war will go: Obviously Ukraine's coming out of this as a great power, fully expect them to start developing force projection and engaging in imperialism in africa. United States is going to join the EU. Obviously given that europe has been center stage for this war and its respons the americans will want to have a piece of that and decide to integrate with europe. EU will change the eligibility rules as they won't be able to resist the ability to massively expand the force projection and economic capabilities of their eventual super-state. The EU is renamed to simply The West. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand become candidate states. The UK continues to yell about brexit. China will launch a surprise attack on russia and take siberia. The massive gas, oil and minerals will be too much for them to resist and they will invade and occupy when the russian military is at its weakest point. by my calculations: tomorrow. vladamir putin will launch a nuclear weapon on himself: Vlad will order a tactical strike on Kyiv however with the typical incompetence we've seen of russia the coordinates are input wrong and it strikes the dacha he ordered it from instead.
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Mar 5, 2022 14:28
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fnox posted:The more obvious thing, nuke or not, is that unironically the world is now trending towards Clancyfication. Military budgets are scaling up, trust is limited, and now that the long peace is shattered we can expect a return to the paranoia of the Cold War. This is even in the case of a best case armistice between Ukraine and Russia. The damage is already done. Yep. If there’s anything to be learned from the post Cold War conflicts, is that if you want territorial sovereignty, you should develop nuclear weapons at any cost. The agreement that Ukraine signed isn’t worth the paper it was printed on. NK and Iran (probably) will be able to maintain grips on their power despite being pariah states to the west. If Putin retains power after this debacle, I forsee Russia going the way of those two. The UN cannot be depended on to resolve any conflict that involves a member with veto power, and thus I feel like the body is ultimately toothless, much like the League of Nations. At the end of the day, if you are not a nuclear power or in an ironclad defensive pact with a nuclear power, you are free game to any other nuclear state that is willing to take on the sanctions. This brings me to a discussion that I’d like to have. The position of the US is it will not intervene militarily against a nuclear armed state unless it is in defense of Nato obligations. This creates the unfortunate precedent that Putin is free to level Ukraine, Georgia, Syria etc to the ground and commit any number of warcrimes against non NATO countries as long as he remains in control of the military. Because the fear is , as soon as an American shoots down a Russian plane, it’s WW3 and the nukes start flying. But doesn’t brinkmanship work both ways? Putin isn’t obligated, nor does it make sense for him to start a nuclear war if Russian homeland is not under threat. Arguably that’s the position Soviet war planners had wrt the use of their own weapons against some countries in Europe. NATO goes to great lengths not to cross this arbitrary line, but there’s no solid evidence to believe that Putin will use nukes if we do, nor that he will not use nukes if we don’t. I guess what I’m trying to say is, the actions NATO are taking will eventually lead to a world of nuclear proliferation. Promises or security given by the UN or other agreements are of dubious reliability.
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Mar 5, 2022 14:31
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fnox posted:I’m less worried about global thermonuclear war, more about tactical nukes. The calculus of the war is starting to make the latter sound at least likely enough to be a worst case scenario. From limited strike to global war there’s a few but rather big steps that need to happen, which just need too many irrational actors for it to work. Trust between NATO and EU countries actually seems to have increased. A lot of countries very quickly got on the same page regarding sanctions. That unified front has definitely been incredibly economically effective, and I would be surprised if that wasn't further recognized and used.
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Mar 5, 2022 16:20
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Comstar posted:I think it's likely that the Russian invasion in the North towards Kiev will be defeated in 3-5 days. The south will keep going but grind to a halt next week too. It was 15 days to Poland and the invasion has failed. More than 2 million people live in Kiev. The city's population is several times the estimated population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined, and modern tactical nukes are substantially more powerful than Fat Man and Little Boy were. Even with everyone who can getting the gently caress out, completely incinerating Ukraine's most populated city in nuclear hellfire would be: a) an absolutely historic war crime b) guaranteed to provoke a massive backlash from loving everybody on the planet c) not very militarily useful d) a downright genocidal move which would be extremely unlikely to break the Ukrainian people's will to resist, given that the geopolitical environment is very different from how it was in 1945
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Mar 5, 2022 16:57
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I do not think that we are in immediate danger of a global nukewar. However I do believe that using a tactical nuke in Ukraine is on the table for Putin. If his conventional forces are exhausted and he has no remaining military options to "win", it seems very plausible that he will nuke some UA batallion in a remote location.. Just to show everyone that he has nukes, and is ready to use them. It should also force Ze to give up the struggle. NATO will not respond with nukes as Ukraine is not part of the alliance but the taboo of using nukes will be broken for all future conflicts and Russia will get a "win" from this war. China will also be a winner here because nukes are pretty nice for wiping out those pesky carrier groups US might send to defend Taiwan
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Mar 5, 2022 17:02
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Main Paineframe posted:d) a downright genocidal move which would be extremely unlikely to break the Ukrainian people's will to resist, given that the geopolitical environment is very different from how it was in 1945 SirTagz posted:I do not think that we are in immediate danger of a global nukewar. However I do believe that using a tactical nuke in Ukraine is on the table for Putin. If his conventional forces are exhausted and he has no remaining military options to "win", it seems very plausible that he will nuke some UA batallion in a remote location.. Just to show everyone that he has nukes, and is ready to use them. It should also force Ze to give up the struggle.
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Mar 5, 2022 17:07
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At this point it’s almost certain that Putin will use his nudes to break the will of the Ukrainians
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Mar 5, 2022 17:36
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I dunno. If Pooptin goes nuclear, or even seems like he's going to go nuclear, Western forces are extremely incentivized to decapitate his government at any cost. Why wait to see if a madman will only use 'little' nukes? Flying in B-2s to kill Pooptin is 10000% a direct act of war against Russia, but if its a madman-despot with access to an arsenal that could destroy the entire world, would anyone else care? It makes sense when you consider the entire threat of nuclear war collapses (potentially forever) once he's dead. I think the US / EU / NATO / G7 / etc. would rather deal with whomever ends up in charge in Russia once the dust has settled, and most importantly I think Pooptin knows all of this. I'd have to assume that Pooptin is seeing the performance of his modern military in a loving mirror match, and getting their asses handed to them technologically, and I think he'd have to wonder how well those S-400 systems would really work, if the West were determined.
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Mar 5, 2022 17:59
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Clancy Chat delivering already. It has the advantage of filtering out all of the unsubstantiated Tweets-as- Qualification: Read some of Dad's paperbacks.
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Mar 5, 2022 18:02
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Finland will take back kola and viipuri
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Mar 5, 2022 18:03
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Mr Scumbag posted:Qualification: Read  I also have Wikipedia and a Jane's aircraft laying around somewhere
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Mar 5, 2022 18:04
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The tuvans shall resore tannu Tuva in the Chaos
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Mar 5, 2022 18:05
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For nebulous strategic reasons the population of Moscow along with significant landmarks like red square shall be moved to Perm.
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Mar 5, 2022 18:07
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Vampire Panties posted:I think he'd have to wonder how well those S-400 systems would really work, if the West were determined. I believe it came out that the stats that Russia claimed with the S-400 were pretty much bogus. Not saying it is a garbage or anything but it is not nearly as fearsome and capable as originally thought. It is basically a slightly upgraded S-300 from what assessments have said.
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Mar 5, 2022 18:15
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Djarum posted:I believe it came out that the stats that Russia claimed with the S-400 were pretty much bogus. Not saying it is a garbage or anything but it is not nearly as fearsome and capable as originally thought. It is basically a slightly upgraded S-300 from what assessments have said.  and I'm going to assume the issue with tires and bearings is endemic to the Pantsir. Not that they necessarily need to move to engage, but still. If i were a western politician or commander, and I had intel that Pooptin was going to launch any sort of nuclear strike in any capacity, it seems like a no-brainer to send in a preemptive decapitation strike. There's no insurgency or occupation or international relations to worry about, and it seems like the chances of success are extremely high. the planes don't need to carry nukes, just enough cruise missiles to make sure the job is done. I would not send in a refit B-52 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_of_the_Old_Dog
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Mar 5, 2022 18:27
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Carmant posted:At this point it’s almost certain that Putin will use his nudes to break the will of the Ukrainians that would be terrifying
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Mar 5, 2022 19:30
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Destabilizing the world order is not a win for China, given that it's poised to wrest control of it from the US. That is infinitely more valuable than a grabbing what is essentially just another Shanghai, especially if China believes it can get it peacefully eventually. Fair enough. My thoughts about China were secondary anyways. Putin using nukes to press a surrender seems scarily possible though. I do not remember any situation where he has actually backed down in any significant confrontation.
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Mar 5, 2022 19:49
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Finland will take back kola and viipuri Finland shall reclaim the historical borders of the Ancient Finnish Empire.
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Mar 5, 2022 19:59
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Any Alaskan goons watching the war should be very nervous right now. That’s Canada’s going to invade
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Mar 5, 2022 20:03
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Comstar posted:Finally. Thank you Op.Back in the 80's, this topic was all the rage. If we're going straight back to the eighties, might as well break out the good stuff:  SeriousChat: I'm 99% certain Putin's pre-war nuclear plans were in response to a possible NATO intervention. That the misguided, wayward Little Russians could kick his butt never figured into his worst nightmares. Also, he definitely wants Kiev intact. Cradle of the Grand Rus civilization, and all that bunk. ClancyChat: If he recalibrates and decides nukes are necessary to win, my best guess is he'll think making an example of Kharkiv will break the Ukrainians' will. Either that, or Lviv, because that's in the Western part he doesn't necessary want to keep for himself.
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Mar 5, 2022 20:17
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Vampire Panties posted:I dunno. If Pooptin goes nuclear, or even seems like he's going to go nuclear, Western forces are extremely incentivized to decapitate his government at any cost. Why wait to see if a madman will only use 'little' nukes? Flying in B-2s to kill Pooptin is 10000% a direct act of war against Russia, but if its a madman-despot with access to an arsenal that could destroy the entire world, would anyone else care? It makes sense when you consider the entire threat of nuclear war collapses (potentially forever) once he's dead. I think the US / EU / NATO / G7 / etc. would rather deal with whomever ends up in charge in Russia once the dust has settled, and most importantly I think Pooptin knows all of this. I'd have to assume that Pooptin is seeing the performance of his modern military in a loving mirror match, and getting their asses handed to them technologically, and I think he'd have to wonder how well those S-400 systems would really work, if the West were determined.
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Mar 5, 2022 20:44
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My prediction is that at some point, Putin and all the other oligarchs are going to meet up in the same place to figure out what to do next, with the exception of one plucky, but underestimated oligarch who's been left behind in a secure bunker. Things get crazy, and the protagonist oligarch is the only one left standing and has to put Russia back on course.
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Mar 5, 2022 22:04
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Carmant posted:At this point it’s almost certain that Putin will use his nudes to break the will of the Ukrainians government-subsidized OnlyFans subscriptions?
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Mar 5, 2022 22:18
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That would do it.
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Mar 5, 2022 22:20
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:My prediction is that at some point, Putin and all the other oligarchs are going to meet up in the same place to figure out what to do next, with the exception of one plucky, but underestimated oligarch who's been left behind in a secure bunker. Things get crazy, and the protagonist oligarch is the only one left standing and has to put Russia back on course. Madame Oligarch?
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Mar 5, 2022 22:28
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:My prediction is that at some point, Putin and all the other oligarchs are going to meet up in the same place to figure out what to do next, with the exception of one plucky, but underestimated oligarch who's been left behind in a secure bunker. Things get crazy, and the protagonist oligarch is the only one left standing and has to put Russia back on course. Regrettably Rodney Dangerfield passed in 2004; maybe Larry David?
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Mar 5, 2022 23:25
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Djarum posted:If Russia used/uses nukes there would likely be an international push to get involved and retaliate. There would need to be shown that there are consequences to using them to keep the MAD doctrine intact. With a weakened Russia my guess is airstrikes on main military and government sites to make sure that they don't get a chance to use it again. You cannot hope to make a nuclear power back down by launching small-scale attacks against its ability to launch nuclear weapons. Doing so instantly backs them into the corner of "use it or lose it" and they may well decide to launch the rest of them before they can be destroyed. If at some point it was considered truly "necessary" to militarily attack the Russian government, we would be looking at a nuclear first strike to try and take out as many of their nuclear weapons on the ground as possible, which is a terrifying gamble no matter what circumstances you contrive.
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Mar 6, 2022 00:33
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The biggest issue here and now is that if Putin gets knocked down, the next guy who's going to take the country will probably be a lot more militarily focused. While Putin is an excellent political administrator he is a terrible military man. It's utterly ridiculous that he didn't utilize his personal wealth to fund this loving invasion, I mean he has enough money to do it and now he's probably regretting that fact. So who comes next? Will it be the actual new stalin? With a heavy capitalist beard and nukes at the ready? Will it be an ultra nationalist Russian who literally just wants to see the world burn comparable to the Makarov character in COD? What the gently caress happens now that the Russian state is about to be shattered under the weight of a 4th round of sanctions?
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Mar 6, 2022 00:34
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One thing's for sure, there's going to be Famine this summer. If we last that long.
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Mar 6, 2022 00:38
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Hannibal Rex posted:One thing's for sure, there's going to be Famine this summer. If we last that long. Russia or Ukraine?
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Mar 6, 2022 00:40
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Russia or Ukraine? World wide. Ukraine and Russia both produce a lot of the world Grain and while the world will probably keep buying Russian Grain (much like it is still buying Russian Gas and Oil), Ukraine won't be making much. Hungry has announced today that is stopping all Grain exports. And worse, Russia exports a lot of fertilizer, and I'm not talking about the bumper crops of sunflowers that are going to pop up after Winter. So you, me and everyone else's food bill just increased 5-20%. This is going to cause revolutions and riots in...less stable countries.
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Mar 6, 2022 01:56
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Comstar posted:World wide. Ukraine and Russia both produce a lot of the world Grain and while the world will probably keep buying Russian Grain (much like it is still buying Russian Gas and Oil), Ukraine won't be making much. Hungry has announced today that is stopping all Grain exports. And worse, Russia exports a lot of fertilizer, and I'm not talking about the bumper crops of sunflowers that are going to pop up after Winter. That's awesome. Let the communist revolution begin. Let not the trotskyists stop our international forever revolution. The grain riots will be our beacon fire for a global call to restore the communist order.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:11
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Russia or Ukraine? Africa. Or world, I'm no expert. But look up where Egypt is getting its grain.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:29
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Just crossposting this from the Bellingcat FSB memo: https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500196510054637569 Section about using nukes: quote:From the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:33
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If anyone actually wants to read a NATO vs Warsaw Pact throwdown novel, this is the one. Red Army loving owned.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:23
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Zeroisanumber posted:If anyone actually wants to read a NATO vs Warsaw Pact throwdown novel, this is the one. Red Army loving owned. Will echo this recommendation as well as adding one of my own, Team Yankee. 
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Mar 6, 2022 03:39
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Any Alaskan goons watching the war should be very nervous right now. That’s Canada’s going to invade Oh no free healthcare at gunpoint!
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Mar 6, 2022 03:46
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