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Japan is not good argument for this. There are correlations but there's a fuckton of cultural confounding factors. It's important to know that guns correlate to suicide attempt success rate not just suicides, I assume Japan has a high rate of failed attempts as well for the same cultural reasons. I want good clean application of statistics on both sides. 
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Jul 20, 2022 20:50
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Scuffy_1989 posted:Why? Japan has a higher suicide rate than the United States and it's nearly impossible to get a gun there. Japan now has a significantly lower rate of suicide than the US. In particular, Japan has a comparable rate of suicide among women (who generally do not use guns) but a much lower rate among men (who do, when available). This is a talking point about five years out of date, one that doesn't reflect the US's steadily climbing suicide rate and Japan's successful efforts to lower theirs. You'll need to find a new cherry to pick. Mulva posted:What compelling statistics. How many people did they ask, what did they mean by protection, and also it's kind of loving illegal in a lot of the country to walk around with a gun if you don't have a license so we can easily track how many owners versus folk walking around with guns exist in those places. It's Pew. The answers to these questions are very easy to find. If your assertion is that everyone answering the general opinion poll in a way you don't like is lying, then good luck! Cease to Hope fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 20:53
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Scuffy_1989 posted:Why? Japan has a higher suicide rate than the United States and it's nearly impossible to get a gun there. Because guns increase suicides. Overall rate is societal, often, but statistically guns increase it relative to less guns. Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 20:59
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Mulva posted:What compelling statistics. How many people did they ask, what did they mean by protection, and also it's kind of loving illegal in a lot of the country to walk around with a gun if you don't have a license so we can easily track how many owners versus folk walking around with guns exist in those places. Admittedly there's gently caress all we can do in no license states, but even walking around Texas I didn't notice 1 in 4 adults walking strapped on average. That doesn't contradict the Pew survey. quote:So I repeat: THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF GUN OWNERS AREN'T CARRYING A GUN AROUND LOOKING TO SHOOT SOMEONE. A bunch might be afraid of someone coming into their home and taking their poo poo though. Cool ALL CAPS response to a strawman, rock on. However what you originaly said was "the overwhelming majority of all gun owners don't carry a gun for self-defense" so you're not repeating yourself, you're doing a motte/baily thing. Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 21:03
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Jaxyon posted:That doesn't contradict the Pew survey. No poo poo, it's telling you what it actually says. See the way this went is I said "Most gun owners aren't carrying a gun for self-defense" to which you went "LOL look at this", so I said "No, that's not what those numbers mean, it means they own a gun for protection, not they CARRY a gun for protection". Not even 1 in 10 gun owners is regularly carrying a gun for self-defense. It's an incredible minority use of guns. And that brought us back to here, with you still being wrong. e: Oh look, an edit quote:However what you originaly said was "the overwhelming majority of all gun owners don't carry a gun for self-defense" so you're not repeating yourself, you're doing a motte/baily thing. It's motte-and-bailey you pedant, if you are going to try to Robert's Rules of Order some nonsense do it right. And you are still wrong, so I don't know why you bothered. Cease to Hope posted:Japan now has a significantly lower rate of suicide than the US. In particular, Japan has a comparable rate of suicide among women (who generally do not use guns) but a much lower rate among men (who do, when available). Where are you getting your 2021 or 2022 US numbers? quote:This is a talking point about five years out of date 2020 had US and Japanese numbers falling, and Japan still over us by 3 people per 100,000. quote:If your assertion is that everyone answering the general opinion poll in a way you don't like is lying, then good luck! Well no, my assertion is that most people don't actually know what the statistics they are quoting mean, they just try to gotcha each other like jackasses. As the poll I showed that actually went into what that number means was all about. Which is that the person I was talking to quoted a number that actually supported what I said, but didn't actually know. Because they didn't actually look into what the poll was saying, they just heard words that sounded good and went NUMBER GO. But hey buddy, you keep talking. I'm sure you'll win this fight one day. Mulva fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 21:20
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The US is fourth among the World Bank's high-income countries for suicide rate, behind South Korea, Lithuania, and Uruguay. (And Uruguay is third on the same list for civilian gun ownership.) Things have gotten quite bad over the past several years.Mulva posted:Where are you getting your 2021 or 2022 US numbers? The newest WHO age/gender-adjusted numbers are from 2019. They're the gold standard for this sort of international comparison. Cease to Hope fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 21:22
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Cease to Hope posted:The US is fourth among the World Bank's high-income countries for suicide rate, behind South Korea, Lithuania, and Uruguay. (And Uruguay is third on the same list for civilian gun ownership.) Things have gotten quite bad over the past several years. Actually things peaked in 2018, and fell year over year in 2019 and 2020. e: Well lets not be a dick, fair is fair. I'm using CDC numbers. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7108a5.htm Mulva fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 21:27
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Mulva posted:No poo poo, it's telling you what it actually says. See the way this went is I said "Most gun owners aren't carrying a gun for self-defense" to which you went "LOL look at this", so I said "No, that's not what those numbers mean, it means they own a gun for protection, not they CARRY a gun for protection". Not even 1 in 10 gun owners is regularly carrying a gun for self-defense. It's an incredible minority use of guns. I'm not wrong on why people own guns. You're simply attempting to parse "literally carrying in their pocket at any given time" in order to be technically accurate about something I guess? What point are you attempting to argue?
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Jul 20, 2022 21:32
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Mulva posted:Actually things peaked in 2018, and fell year over year in 2019 and 2020. The WHO has not published data for 2020. I don't know what you're looking at. e: Okay using crude numbers from the CDC explains it. The WHO's numbers are adjusted for age and gender, to allow apples-to-apples comparisons of different countries (with the caveat that it's only as good as the WHO's data; there are some major caveats but they don't really apply to this discussion). Comparing crude numbers among different countries is a waste of time. Cease to Hope fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 21:38
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Cease to Hope posted:The WHO has not published data for 2020. I don't know what you're looking at. Were you holding that one for awhile, I edited in CDC statistics like 10 minutes ago. Jaxyon posted:I'm not wrong on why people own guns. Who said you were, I said you were wrong to quote it at me, person who never said otherwise. You threw it at me like it gotcha'ed what I said, when it very much did not. quote:You're simply attempting to parse "literally carrying in their pocket at any given time" in order to be technically accurate about something I guess? If you don't know what the conversation was about, why do you think what you said was relevant? quote:What point are you attempting to argue? I think it was when I said most gun owners aren't carrying a gun around looking to shoot someone and then posted the numbers that say they aren't doing that. More importantly, what point are you attempting to argue, and against who? Mulva fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 21:40
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Mulva posted:I think it was when I said most gun owners aren't carrying a gun around looking to shoot someone and then posted the numbers that say they aren't doing that. More importantly, what point are you attempting to argue, and against who? You also claimed that most gun owners own guns for reasons unrelated to self-defense, which is false. Mulva posted:Also I've been letting that side, but the overwhelming majority of all gun owners don't carry a gun for self-defense. Hunting, target shooting, keeping it in a loving drawer or some such, collecting. All that is waaay higher than people that get a carry permit. Most gun owners do subscribe to the idea that their gun is there to protect them. Quibbling over a technicality about carrying guns all the time is not especially relevant; most people do not carry guns all the time and nobody present claimed they did.
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Jul 20, 2022 21:48
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Cease to Hope posted:e: Okay using crude numbers from the CDC explains it. The WHO's numbers are adjusted for age and gender, to allow apples-to-apples comparisons of different countries (with the caveat that it's only as good as the WHO's data; there are some major caveats but they don't really apply to this discussion). Comparing crude numbers among different countries is a waste of time. .....you know the CDC also has age, race, and gender adjusted numbers right? Cease to Hope posted:You also claimed that most gun owners own guns for reasons unrelated to self-defense, which is false. No, that's not what I said, I said they have it for a bunch of reasons not related to carrying it around looking to shoot someone. You read a lot into a simple statement. If it helps I'm sure a lot of those people that keep it in a drawer hope a black guy tries to get in so they can shoot him in the face legally. Does that make you feel....better? Mulva fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 21:48
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Mulva posted:.....you know the CDC also has age, race, and gender adjusted numbers right? The CDC has age-adjusted numbers but does not adjust for gender (or race). You are mistaking breakdowns for adjustment. I don't even know what point you're trying to make any more. This just seems like tetchy technicality quibbling to derail the discussion.
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Jul 20, 2022 21:53
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Mulva posted:.....you know the CDC also has age, race, and gender adjusted numbers right? You know gun access increases suicides, right? That's kind of the discussion.
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Jul 20, 2022 21:54
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Cease to Hope posted:I don't even know what point you're trying to make any more. You are wrong about the wide disparity in suicide rates between Japan and the United States? Not like it was a complicated point. If you weren't willing to defend it, why make it? Jaxyon posted:You know gun access increases suicides, right? It can increase the chance of a suicide attempt to be successful, to be pedantic. Yeah no poo poo, who said otherwise? Is this just random gun facts time?
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Jul 20, 2022 21:59
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Mulva posted:You are wrong about the wide disparity in suicide rates between Japan and the United States? Not like it was a complicated point. If you weren't willing to defend it, WHY loving MAKE IT?! No, I'm not. Adjusted for age and gender, the US had 14.5 suicides per 100K in 2019, while Japan had 12.2.
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Jul 20, 2022 22:06
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It's 3 year old numbers adjusted in a very specific way, and adjusted in any other way looks worse.
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Jul 20, 2022 22:14
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Mulva posted:It's 3 year old numbers adjusted in a very specific way, and adjusted in any other way looks worse. This is your third argument in a row that these statistics do not actually count because they do not align with your priors.
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Jul 20, 2022 22:19
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Mulva posted:It can increase the chance of a suicide attempt to be successful, to be pedantic. Yeah no poo poo, who said otherwise? Is this just random gun facts time? I mean the point is that guns make things less safe. You lost?
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Jul 20, 2022 22:21
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It's worth noting how far "self-defense" can stretch in some people's minds. For example, the case of Tony Earls, who accidentally shot and killed a 9-year-old girl, and claimed he was defending himself from a robber who'd held him at gunpoint. https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1549537030375440385 Just from the tweet and the lawyer statement, it sounds pretty cut-and-dry, right? He was confronted by an armed robber, shot at the robber, and accidentally hit someone else as well. Except that's not what happened. He was caught by surprise and held at gunpoint before he knew what was going on. He handed over the money, and the robber walked away with his money. Even though he wasn't able to pull out his gun, he got through the encounter safely, just minus some money. And if he hadn't had a gun, things would have ended there with no one getting hurt. The exact details of what happened next are seemingly disputed, but the conclusion speaks for itself: quote:Earls first shot at the robbery suspect, who was fleeing on foot, and then at a pickup truck he thought the robbery suspect had gotten into. The vehicle’s occupants, a family of five, were not involved in the robbery. The juvenile victim, a rear seat passenger, was struck during the shooting. As the robber was leaving, Earls grabbed his gun, got out of his car, and initiated a new confrontation with the robber, resulting in him firing at the robber several times. And then when he lost track of the robber, he shot at a nearby vehicle, thinking that it might have been a getaway vehicle. Except it wasn't a getaway vehicle at all - it was a family taking their kids out for pizza. There's a lot to unpack there, in terms of how the mentality of "self-protection with a gun" got a child killed. The initial robbery happened without him being able to pull his gun out at all. It's only after he wasn't being held at gunpoint - in other words, after he was no longer being threatened (and was no longer acting in self-defense) - that he was able to introduce his gun into the situation, and it had an entirely negative impact. Even though the robbery went without any actual violence, bringing out his own gun allowed him to initiate violence, even from a distance. It allowed him to continue violence even at such a distance that he was losing track of his target's position, and it allowed him to attack a vehicle despite having no idea who was in it. If he and the thief had both had knives instead of guns, the initial robbery wouldn't have changed much - he was surprised at close range and held at weapon-point before he knew anything was wrong. But in the aftermath, it's unlikely that he would have been able to attack the thief afterward, and he certainly wouldn't have been able to kill an innocent bystander by randomly attacking a pickup truck. The gun introduced danger where none existed. His gun helped him feel safe and secure - and because of that feeling of security, he felt safe initiating a violent encounter and trying to kill a man just to get his wallet back. It's an example of how carrying a gun "for protection" can make situations more dangerous than they would have been otherwise. And yeah, this clearly wasn't a self-defense situation. He was already well beyond self-defense when he shot at a fleeing robber, let alone when he opened fire at what he thought might have been a getaway vehicle. But it was a gun that he was carrying "for protection", so it's still very relevant. It's an example of how "protection" can stretch and warp in a chaotic situation. And the grand jury bought his self-defense claim and got him off the hook for charges, too (the cops are now looking for the robber, who will presumably be charged for the death even though there's no evidence that he fired even a single shot).
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Jul 20, 2022 22:25
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Cease to Hope posted:This is your third argument in a row that these statistics do not actually count because they do not align with your priors. Hey, if you get to flat out say someone is lying or wrong to the thing they said happened to them I guess I get to do this, right? At least mine has the benefit of being true. Jaxyon posted:I mean the point I'd that guns make things less safe. You lost? Yes, that's largely the point for a lot of their uses. The device that channels an explosion to propel metal at high velocity does, in fact, make people less safe. Also for a lot of people that is the point, because they want to kill other people. Some of them for nefarious reasons. And? So what? This guy was an rear end in a top hat. Agreed.
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Jul 20, 2022 22:30
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Mulva posted:Hey, if you get to flat out say someone is lying or wrong to the thing they said happened to them I guess I get to do this, right? Anecdotes do not deserve the same respect as hard data. e: Also, lmao that I called this shot, too. Cease to Hope posted:My point is that it's clear that evidence isn't the way forward, because of this pervasive Good Guy With A Gun fantasy narrative that turns heroic anecdotes into data and actual data into irrelevancies that only apply to Other People. Cease to Hope fucked around with this message at 22:40 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 22:36
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:i'm simply pointing out factual information amount the number of deaths caused by firearms in the united states in 2020. any struggles you have with this factual information are your responsibility alone to overcome mobby_6kl brought up Japan as a place where guns are hard to aquire, that's why I'm using them as an example.
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Jul 20, 2022 23:19
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Scuffy_1989 posted:mobby_6kl brought up Japan as a place where guns are hard to aquire, that's why I'm using them as an example. Adjusted for age and gender, their suicide rate has declined below the US's. They are a poor example.
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Jul 20, 2022 23:25
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Cease to Hope posted:e: Also, lmao that I called this shot, too. You called that you'd be totally disregarded and waste your time and effort doing something because nobody gives a poo poo, and then did it anyway?
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Jul 20, 2022 23:26
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Mulva posted:Yes, that's largely the point for a lot of their uses. The device that channels an explosion to propel metal at high velocity does, in fact, make people less safe. Also for a lot of people that is the point, because they want to kill other people. Some of them for nefarious reasons. People own them to make themselves more safe. But they don't actually do that. They make things less safe. Edit: For the people buying the guns and the people around them. Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Jul 20, 2022 |
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Jul 20, 2022 23:29
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Mulva posted:You called that you'd be totally disregarded and waste your time and effort doing something because nobody gives a poo poo, and then did it anyway? I called that people would discard data in favor of pleasing anecdotes of self-defense, as you have. Bragging about disregarding data and claiming that talking to you is a waste of time is a weird flex!
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Jul 20, 2022 23:40
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Jaxyon posted:People own them to make themselves more safe. Well no, in reality most people that own a gun aren't going to do anything notable with it. They aren't going to kill themselves, or others. They aren't going to draw it in anger or fear. It'll just be a thing they have. That's the reality of gun ownership. Cease to Hope posted:Bragging about disregarding data and claiming that talking to you is a waste of time is a weird flex! I mean you keep doing it.
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Jul 20, 2022 23:43
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Mulva posted:So what? This guy was an rear end in a top hat. Agreed. The world is full of dumb assholes. We should restrict the availability of firearms, to make it more difficult for dumb assholes to kill people like this. Because as shown here, carrying a gun "for protection" and using it "in self-defense" isn't always as simple or straightforwardly good as it sounds.
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Jul 20, 2022 23:44
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Mulva posted:Well no, in reality most people that own a gun aren't going to do anything notable with it. They aren't going to kill themselves, or others. They aren't going to draw it in anger or fear. It'll just be a thing they have. That's the reality of gun ownership. The reality of gun ownership is you make yourself less safe by owning one, while claiming it's going to make you more safe.
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Jul 20, 2022 23:45
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Jaxyon posted:The reality of gun ownership is you make yourself less safe by owning one, while claiming it's going to make you more safe. If nothing happens to you because of it, how are you less safe?
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Jul 20, 2022 23:57
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Harold Fjord posted:Yes. The current discussion is not what is the best public policy or way to make it, but how to ever move towards implementation via changing the other side. What was the goal behind this unbelievably tedious chain of posts? You've engineered this tired "debate me, you cowards" routine where you alone are the arbiter of what is acceptable discourse. What positive outcome do you expect from pulling this Steven Crowder-esque "I don't care about your logic, facts, or the caskets of dead schoolchildren dumped at my front door. Change my mind." bit you're doing? Here you go: You win. We are all incapable of convincing you. The world isn't written by Aaron Sorkin, and your mind isn't going to be changed by some great piece of oratory. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 21, 2022 00:01
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Mulva posted:If nothing happens to you because of it, how are you less safe? You having that option makes your neighborhood and country less safe. Which obviously doesn't matter, as you've decided that the potential positive effect of saving your own life or that of someone close to you (however slim to non-existent that effect may be) outweighs the negative externalities of legal gun ownership that mostly kills or maims people you don't give a poo poo about. That's not some consequence exclusive to guns, it's just far more clear cut with guns than it is with tax policy or whatever.
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Jul 21, 2022 00:04
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Mulva posted:If nothing happens to you because of it, how are you less safe? Statistically speaking. I'm aware every gun owner thinks they're the special exception.
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Jul 21, 2022 00:06
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Baronash posted:What was the goal behind this unbelievably tedious chain of posts? Cease to Hope posted:I really don't know what to do about the problem that people are more attached to the fantasy of heroically shooting down an assailant than they are to their own lives or their families' lives, let alone the lives of strangers. It seems like an unsolvable problem, sometimes.  I took this in good faith. gently caress you.
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Jul 21, 2022 00:15
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Please move on from this conversation, unless someone has fresh or interesting information to further add.
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Jul 21, 2022 00:18
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Jaxyon posted:The reality of gun ownership is you make yourself less safe by owning one, while claiming it's going to make you more safe. Correct. I'm guessing I've been in a lot more dangerous scenarios than most goons. I worked security at a bar. I've had a gun drawn on me, knives drawn on me, groups of of men all threatening to beat me up because I wouldn't let them in after last call. I've been in straight up bar brawls. Me having a fire arm would not have helped any of those situation. You know what did? my training in de-escalation work and martial arts training, and being the sober one against drunk/high assholes. The bar put me on the door because I was good at calming people down. Of the hundred plus incidents that could have easily turned into a fight, only a handful turned into one when I was the first one dealing with somebody hostile. Most of the those scenarios I just mentioned? It was other security (usually armed) that went in aggressive and then we had to deal with the situation. Those other security were wanna be cops, and former military. Guns also make the "good guys" feel way, way more confident than they should. The truth of fights, and gun fights, and any of those sort of situations is that luck has a much, much higher factor on who wins than most people are willing to admit.
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Jul 21, 2022 00:19
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Baronash posted:You having that option makes your neighborhood and country less safe. Not really, because quote:Which obviously doesn't matter, as you've decided that the potential positive effect of saving your own life or that of someone close to you (however slim to non-existent that effect may be) outweighs the negative externalities of legal gun ownership that mostly kills or maims people you don't give a poo poo about. I don't own a gun and never would. This is entirely a theoretical discussion for me with no impact on my life. So the potential for me to get a gun is practically irrelevant. Jaxyon posted:Statistically speaking. Go live in math, I'm sure they have sane gun laws there. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 21, 2022 00:20
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Mulva posted:Go live in math, I'm sure they have sane gun laws there. I live in reality. But if you want to live in gun fantasy land, sure thing John Wick. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 21, 2022 00:25
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Jaxyon posted:I live in reality. But if you want to live in gun fantasy land, sure thing John Wick. Again, don't own guns. Never would. Would make me and those around me wildly unsafe. Also I do, I guess, I live in the land where everyone can have a gun and shoot up whatever they want and nobody cares. Just like John Wick! So like....I guess I win this round?
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Jul 21, 2022 00:30
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