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Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009



https://www.usopen.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9e_CnoWUYg

The Country Club in Brookline, just outside of Boston, is one of the most important golf clubs in history. It is one of the five founding clubs of the USGA. It was the site of the 1913 U.S. Open won by Francis Ouimet, dramatized in the terrible 2005 film The Greatest Game Ever Played starring Shia LaBeouf. It's where Bobby Jones completed the 1930 Grand Slam. It was also the site of the 1999 Ryder Cup where USA staged the largest comeback in Ryder Cup history.

But most importantly, it is hosting the first tournament after the start of the breakaway Saudi-backed sportswashing LIV Golf series.

There will be ~*~DRAMA~*~
https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1536108145398927360


Air Times (ET)
Thu: 6:45-9:30am Peacock, 9:30am-2pm USA, 2-5pm NBC, 5-7pm USA, 7-8pm Peacock
Fri: 6:45-9:30am Peacock, 9:30am-4pm USA, 4-7pm NBC, 7-8pm Peacock
Sat: 10am-12pm Peacock, 12-8pm NBC
Sun: 9-10am Peacock, 10am-12pm USA, 12-7pm NBC

There will also be streaming featured groups at https://www.usopen.com/.


Marquee Tee Times (Thursday ET)
7:18am Collin Morikawa, James Piot, Jon Rahm
7:29am Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Max Homa
7:40am: Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele
1:14pm: Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau
1:25pm: Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, Scottie Scheffler
1:47pm: Phil Mickelson, Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen


Odds (Draftkings as of 9am ET Monday)



Betting Pool
Pick an available player who isn't one of the top 10 betting favorites. Best finisher gets :20bux: from everyone else. We're going to try a slight modification from previous pools, runner(s)-up gets their money back (doesn't have to pay the winner).
Josh Lyman: Shane Lowry
Shrapnig: Hideki Matsuyama
Anno: Viktor Hovland
BonoMan: Harold Varner III
Douchebag: Brooks Koepka
The SituAsian: Tony Finau
Kameh: Max Homa
mattfl: Tommy Fleetwood
Dr. Capco: Justin Rose
chilihead: Sam Burns
moose47: Phil Mickelson
Kirios: Joaquin Niemann
SquirrelyPSU: Adam Scott
Keyser_Soze: Sungjae Im
Mcqueen: Cam Young

Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 11:57 on Jun 15, 2022

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Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


:siren: Reminder that we are going to try a slightly modified pool this time. :siren: If there are 12 or more participants, the second place finisher(s) will get their money back, i.e. won't have to pay the winner. This is mainly to mitigate the size of the pool and to make for more interesting watching on Sunday.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


BonoMan posted:

edit: some thoughts on future pool stuff (maybe for discussion for next year). And I'm just thinking out loud about some of this, so it's not super deeply thought out.


For each $20 bet, $15 goes into the prize pool for that tourney, the last $5 goes into escrow that grows with each tourney.

If a player picks someone that actually wins the tourney, they get that extra pot of cash. If nobody does by the end of the year, it's donated to First Tee or some other golf program.

This would require someone to sort of run the game though (but it wouldn't be hard) so they can keep track of the buckets.


Anyway just some thoughts to evolve it a little. Or not. No biggie.
3 questions immediately come to mind:

1) How do we logistically manage the bonus pool? We could have everyone to make 2 payments per major, 1 to the event winner and 1 to the bonus pool, but that's maximizes the burden for everyone. We could just have the event winner make a payment to the bonus pool after receiving payment from everyone else.

2) Do you need to participate in the last X pools in order to claim the bonus? In other words, do we want to avoid incentivizing someone to only participating in The Open?

3) Do we do it per calendar year or for the trailing 4 majors? Picking the winner is much more likely for The Masters vs say The Open.

Last year there were 57 entries across the 4 majors so the bonus pool as you proposed it would have been $285. If the winner of The Open pool had picked the champion, they would've won $485 which feels like too much, but maybe that's just me? To put a topical point on it, I don't want these pools to be about Saudi blood money. If someone wants to make a golf bet with a big payout, they can go to a sportsbook.

From a game theory perspective, bonus pools exist for slots and other games in order to induce additional betting. That doesn't quite apply here since you would only be able to bet 4 times/year but I do worry about distortional effects.

One thing I like about our pools is that the expected value is 1. In other words, it feels less like betting and more like a fun game.

If we want to have a charitable element, I would rather just have each event winner donate X% to their local First Tee. I think 10% is reasonable which also happens to align with the standard vig at sportsbooks and caddy payout for a win.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Dr. Capco posted:

Gimme Justin Rose even if I'm probably getting baited from watching him yesterday.
Justin Rose was the other person I was thinking of picking. He has a better track record than Lowry at U.S. Opens and played well last week and at the PGA, but he's also had more inconsistent results this season.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


chilihead posted:

So i can't pick Morikawa? He shows as number twelve on your odds but i understand he is tied for tenth. So Colin if i can, but guessing no so here is my other pick.

Sam Burns.
Morikawa is tied for 10th in the odds I posted so he is not allowed. Sam Burns is though!

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


BonoMan posted:

Sorry if I was a little vague with my wording. You still only pick someone out of the top ten. It's just that, if your pick *happens* to also win the actual tourney, you get the bonus pool.

The whole idea just came about from seeing someone mention charity donation a few tourneys back and then me thinking that it'd be cool if someone picks the winner - they get a little bonus.

But yes the idea that you just donate 10% no matter what to First Tee would work as well - just wouldn't have the fun cash bonus element for picking the tourney winner but that's less important than the charity element
Picking the winner is unlikely so the extra work for the bonus pool is a lot of work for very little. Also it starts to feel too much about the money, if that makes sense.

If we decide to do the donation thing, I'm happy to dump the modification that 2nd place gets their money back since the donation will mechanically help keep the pool in check.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


moose47 posted:

Longtime lurker with $20 to burn. Give me Phil Mickelson to complete the career grand slam in hilarious fashion.
If you win the pool, you deserve it for the ridiculous pick.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Kameh posted:

As one of the two goons who started this whole $20 / golf ball bet (Tiger vs Sergio in a Masters years back), I'm siding with legacy.

I'M STICKING WITH LYMAN
Welcome to a tradition unlike any other

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Fuuuck Lowry got paired with Mickelson and Oosthuizen (also a LIV guy). :smith:

Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Jun 14, 2022

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Tee times are out, some juicy groups for Thursday:

7:18am Collin Morikawa, James Piot, Jon Rahm
7:29am Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Max Homa
7:40am: Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele
1:14pm: Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau
1:25pm: Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, Scottie Scheffler
1:47pm: Phil Mickelson, Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


First tee times at 6:45am, you have another 35 minutes to get your picks in!

I can't imagine teeing off that early, especially in a major. You get to the range an hour early to warm up, wake up an hour before that to shower and get to the range, we're looking at a 4:30am wakeup. No me gusta.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Brooks Koepka was granted permission by Srixon to play his old TaylorMade M5 driver and Titleist Pro V1x this week. He's gonna win.

For posterity, after finding out Lowry was paired with Phil, I wanted to switch to Justin Rose (already picked by that point). Would've then switched to Matt Fitzpatrick but he's one of the betting favorites.

Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Jun 17, 2022

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


:siren: Featured groups are live! https://www.usopen.com/watch/live.html :siren:

And they are baller af

Morning
Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Max Homa
Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele

Afternoon
Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau
Brooks Koepka, Cam Smith, Scottie Scheffler

Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 12:46 on Jun 16, 2022

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Adam Scott -1 thru 2, looks really solid so far

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


mattfl posted:

Youtube.tv 4k feed on the right, featured groups on the left lol



gently caress work today!
same :hfive:

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


The SituAsian posted:

I'm sure this has come up in pools before but, just so I'm clear, if there is a withdrawal before first tee off (like Ancer today) the person who picked them just keeps their money?
Actually I don't think this has happened before. You're always welcome to change your picks until the first shot of the tournament, but if you aren't able to in case of a last minute WD, it's fairest to just drop you from the pool.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Does the featured groups website keep crashing for anyone else?

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


1st round up. Fml I knew I should’ve picked Justin Rose!

I couldn’t fit Phil into the screenshot but he’s the missing one at +8. He ruined Lowry’s round. :colbert:

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


JT with a double from the middle of the fairway on his first, then a 3 putt bogey on his second. :negative:

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Cam Smith just bent the shaft on his lob wedge after a bad chip by repeatedly slamming the shaft just above the hosel against his foot. He's +4 thru 14, +6 overall.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


2nd round update. Phil you ruined Lowry! :argh:

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


BonoMan posted:

Gah my decision to pick HV3 over Zalatoris bites me *again*
Zalatoris was a disallowed pick as one of the betting favorites so you have nothing to regret!

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Love me a US Open course that fucks with the world’s best

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


I was watching the LPGA event and their leaderboard, the top 6 are all major champs and ranked in the top 16 but the leader is -18. Completely different vibe here.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


3rd round update. Pool looks to be down to a 5 man race

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Congrats to Shrapnig for winning the pool! SquirrelyPSU gets his :20bux: “back” as the runner up.

Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Jun 19, 2022

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Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Venmo sent!

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