USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

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-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

picking up on a recent post in the old thread

i've seen a fair number of pundits lay the current conditions on the fed for choosing to emphasize the unemployment portion of their mandate a few years back, and for easy money policies in response to the '08 and '20 crises. there had been a movement by progressive economists in the wake of the drawn-out recovery and wage stagnation following '08 calling for more intervention on behalf of the unemployed and low wage earners, and i have a feeling that's going to be smothered for another generation

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

yeah, he was also vocally opposed to additional stimulus in late 2020/ early 2021 for the same reason. it seemed that the white house didn't pay him much mind at the time, but who knows what sort of cachet has now been attached to this line of thought by "serious" policy folks

there seems to be a tendency to set aside the continuing supply shocks we've been seeing for the last year to focus on the anemic increase in wage growth following decades of stagnation. i guess it goes to show that technocratic paths to relief for those in need are a thin branch to hang your hopes on, it takes years to build a narrative and get people into place to implement policy, and then it can all gets swept away in less than a year

Is there an official D&D Econ thread to dive deeper on this?

"The Economist posted:

People�s inflation expectations are rising�and will be hard to bring down

No one listens to central banks

Consumer prices across the rich world are rising by more than 9% year on year, the highest rate since the 1980s. Worryingly, there is growing evidence that the public is starting to expect consistently high inflation. Figures suggesting that Americans� medium-term expectations of inflation had risen helped set off the market turmoil of last week, which culminated in the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point. Central banks urgently need to convince people that they are serious about getting inflation down. But a range of evidence suggests that changing the public�s mind could be extraordinarily difficult.

The difference in views of expert and lay groups has become gaping. Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, three economists, look at the inflation expectations of four groups in America (see chart). Those of professional forecasters and financial markets remain close to the Fed�s target of 2%. But consumers� beliefs increasingly do not. They expect prices to rise by over 5% over the next year. Firms, exposed to surging commodity, wage and other input costs, expect even higher inflation.

Expectations are rising outside of America, too. A dataset put together by the Cleveland Fed, Morning Consult, a consultancy, and Raphael Schoenle of Brandeis University gauges public inflation expectations in various places. In May 2021 a respondent in the median rich country thought inflation over the next year would be 2.3%. Now they expect a rate of 4.2%.

Central banks face a problem in getting these expectations down again. This is because few people, aside from investors and financial journalists, pay much notice to what they say. A new paper by Alan Blinder of Princeton University and colleagues puts it more drily. �Households and firms have a low desire to be informed about monetary policy.� A survey in 2014 found that only a quarter of Americans could pick out Janet Yellen as the then-chairwoman of the Fed, from a list of four. Four in ten Americans believe that the Fed�s inflation target exceeds 10%. Small wonder that the impact of its policy announcements on inflation expectations is �muted�, according to a recent study by Fiorella De Fiore of the Bank for International Settlements, and colleagues.

Nor are Americans alone. In the late 2000s researchers at the Bank of Italy assessed whether people knew what inflation was. Many had only a fuzzy understanding�with half of respondents confusing price changes with price levels. In recent years Japan has implemented forceful monetary easing in order to boost inflation. But in 2021 more than 40% of Japanese people had �never heard� of the plan, according to an official survey.

In the years before the pandemic, public apathy to monetary policy did not much matter. Inflation was low and stable. Now it matters a lot. Spiralling expectations could become embedded in wages and prices, pushing headline inflation higher still. Central bankers� conventional toolkits may do little to bring them down. Even the effect of raising interest rates is not totally clear: twice as many Americans believe that higher rates raise inflation than reduce it, according to a recent The Economist/YouGov poll. What more can be done? History points to several options.

One is to make drastic or unexpected announcements. This could involve raising interest rates outside of scheduled meetings�a decision taken by India�s central bank in May. The European Central Bank (ecb) has used this trick in pursuit of another goal: keeping down government-bond spreads, which would otherwise threaten a debt crisis. In 2012 Mario Draghi, then the head of the bank, made an impromptu promise to do �whatever it takes� to save the euro. According to research by Michael Ehrmann of the ecb and Alena Wabitsch of Oxford University, the words generated high traffic on Twitter among non-experts, suggesting they had cut through. The genius of the statement, other research suggests, was that it focused on the end (�preserve the euro�) rather than the means (�buying bonds�), which is easier for the public to understand. The ecb has tried to repeat the trick more recently, such as by calling an emergency meeting to address widening spreads.

Others have played the long game. Paul Volcker, the Fed�s chairman from 1979 to 1987, cultivated a reputation as what economists call an inflation �nutter�: someone willing to tolerate high unemployment to defeat the beast. The public eventually got the message. A recent paper by Jonathon Hazell of the London School of Economics and others argues that post-Volcker �shifts in beliefs about the long-run monetary regime� proved more important than any other factor in conquering inflation before covid-19. Andrew Bailey, the head of the Bank of England, has been trying to embrace his inner Volcker, such as by giving Britons the impression that he cares more about inflation than he does their wages.

Another solution is for politicians to get involved. This has potential drawbacks. Politicians often advocate crackpot anti-inflation schemes such as price controls. Still, they might be able to help. After all, 37% of Americans believe that the president has �a lot� of control over inflation, compared with 34% for the Fed. Jimmy Carter�s appointment of Volcker in 1979 showed that he was serious about getting inflation down. In Britain, Margaret Thatcher and her henchmen talked tough on price stability; their willingness to slash government budgets probably backed up those words, by cooling the economy. Today in America, President Joe Biden says that �fighting inflation� is his �top economic priority� (though he shows less inclination to tighten fiscal policy).

Public apathy towards central banking may be a backhanded compliment to the policymakers of the 1980s and 1990s. No one needed to care about inflation when it was low. Today�s policymakers are constrained by that very success. To get inflation expectations back down, then, they may need to try everything in their power to get people to sit up and listen.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 02:27

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 13:29

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1539405926905569284

Well that guy's gonna have some interesting nightmares for the rest of his life.

The things this country will put up with to keep it's dumb toys is kind of amazing. Can't even imagine the awe and horror our peer countries have when they read this poo poo.

It makes one wonder when or even if this all ends? Like how many third-graders do you have to Mozambique before Republicans relent. All of them?

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 08:38 on Jun 22, 2022

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 08:32

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Biden is asking Congress to suspend the federal gas tax for 3 months (most likely dead in Congress) and to provide other forms of direct relief (almost definitely dead in Congress).

Since they are both likely dead in Congress, he is also asking states to suspend their state level gas taxes and provide "commensurate" direct relief through "consumer rebates, relief payments, or delaying planned tax and fee increases."

He says federal direct relief will cost about $10 billion and wants states to at least match that.

Unless Congress does actually authorize direct aid or suspend the gas tax, then this is effectively just asking states to spend more money. Some states might do that, but you probably aren't going to see a ton of movement in places where they haven't already been willing to do so.

His plan doesn't specify how Congress should make up the $10 billion that goes to the highway fund, so that is going to make it even less likely to pass. Democrats don't want to defund the transportation budget and Republicans don't want to raise revenue from anywhere else, so hard to see how they get 60 votes for that.

The White House is having a press conference with full details about the plan and a Q&A 3 PM today.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1539534047210266624

Even though this is how it's supposed to work here in the U.S. it's always seemed weird and inefficient that there wasn't more coordination between federal and state government strategy and operations. Every time Biden "talks to the states" about something it always comes off like he's sticking his head out the window of his house and yelling to his neighbors across the street, "Hey you guys, whaddya think of this?" Like maybe get people together and have a meeting?

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 16:14

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Mendrian posted:

DeSantis looks moderate compared to Trump.

That's it, that's the whole thing.

By making open mocking racism a pillar of the new Republican party they've made it real easy to pull the whole country right. It's terrifying.

Youngkin in Virginia all over again.

"NYT posted:

One of the things you also said in the memo was that McAuliffe�s strategy of linking Mr. Youngkin to former President Donald Trump was ineffective. What in the conversations with your groups made that clear?

The respondents kind of laughed at that approach. They said, �Oh, these silly ads that compared Youngkin to Trump � he just doesn�t seem like that guy.� The thing that these people disliked about Trump was that they didn�t like Donald Trump the person; it wasn�t Donald Trump the constellation of policies. That may very well have been the best message that McAuliffe had, but if we are in that position again, we�re going to lose a ton of races. We�ve got to have something better.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/us/politics/midterm-election-polls.html

No one cared that Trump was a maniac, they cared that he acted like a maniac. Just like his own base loves him because he yells a lot and looks like he's owning the libs, but they wouldn't be able to name three of his policies and legislative accomplishments. It's all surface level presentation. The reason those voters didn't dislike Trump's policies is because they couldn't even tell you what any of his policies were, voters don't even know that the President doesn't control gas prices with giant levers in his desk.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Jun 23, 2022

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 20:14

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

The president before last was a black nobody until his dnc speech and the dark horse in the 2008 primary he won. The number two contender in 2016 was an ancient Vermont socialist who'd never run for president before. The number three contender in 2020 was the gay mayor of the fourth largest city in Indiana whose name starts with 'butt'. I am not convinced that a deep bench is vital, nor that "there's not a clear left up and comer in the US media" means there won't be (or perhaps even that there isn't currently one).

and that's without getting into Trump tier upsets like President Matthew McConaughey

My guy can give a loving speech, I'll give him that. I read somewhere they bring him in to pump up football teams before big games. I bet he'd outclass Trump's stage skills by a mile. But isn't McConaughey a Republican? And didn't he flirt with getting into politics (in Texas) and then back out?

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 07:40

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

B B posted:

What's the "something" Biden is going to do to win over this age group? Even if Biden moves heaven and Earth and wins over 100% of the "don't know" group (which is very unlikely), he's still underwater with that age group by 10 points. These are disastrous numbers for Biden, given that he won that same age group by 24 points in 2020. He would have likely lost the election with the numbers he is pulling now.

The next tweet in that thread also points out that Trump has higher approval rating than Biden in the 18-34 group:

https://twitter.com/whstancil/status/1539715117062971393/photo/1

These numbers are absolutely as bad as they sound for Biden.

quote:

It's all the more frustrating because we genuinely don't have a good explanation for it. Biden's approval is NINE POINTS LOWER THAN TRUMP'S AMONG YOUNG VOTERS, in the exact same poll, 4 years ago. That makes no sense if this is about policy.

They're so close to getting it.

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 08:32

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Epic High Five posted:

McCaughey is way more likely to win than Beto and way more likely to implement good things than any Republican in Texas so it seems like a no-brainer to support him running for Governor there

I mean, I completely agree, especially given what's at stake, and with all the built-in popularity and media training he has. It's a waste for him not to step up. But I thought he'd already announced his decision earlier this year to stay on the side lines? I wonder if Uvalde changed his mind.

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 08:53

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

ellasmith posted:

I�m just glad even democrats are coming around to the idea that defunding the police was an awful decision. Living in a low income city in the northeast, nearly all of my friends and coworkers are black or Hispanic and I can�t think of a single one of them who believes we need less policing, not more.

Ironically, it�s the nearby lily-white college towns with very little crime of any sort where you hear that talk. Of course, you rarely see them come down here.

Same as it ever was.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Jun 23, 2022

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 21:49

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Always wondered how a group of people as stone stupid as Conservatives could ever be successful. Abortion has been legal for the last 50 years with Democrats as the sole elected political bulwark against a vicious Conservative movement that has meticulously and tirelessly worked every angle in the system to overturn it. Today they finally did.

[Some] People's takeaway? Clearly the Democrats don't care about women's right to choose and also the system doesn't work.

That this country has managed to last as long as it has is a true credit to random chance.

# ¿ Jun 25, 2022 00:18

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

B B posted:

Yeah, AOC has been really on message tonight. She's one of the few elected officials offering a viable path forward:

https://mobile.twitter.com/demisatyr/status/1540352708523196416

Lmao, I've seen enough.

# ¿ Jun 25, 2022 06:02

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Have Some Flowers! posted:

I know we're all trying to process what we can do personally to affect this situation, right, and I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I don't have all the answers or fault anyone for how they're working through this today. But if it helps, where I land is that you can simultaneously believe that:

1) the Democratic party is a failure and electoral politics won't save us
2) spending a few hours once a year on voting blue for harm reduction is worth your time

Direct action is increasingly our way forward, and that takes many hours sustained over days, weeks, months, years. It's personally expensive and even unsafe. A few hours voting may not accomplish much, but it does accomplish something, and the economy of that is tough to beat. We have to look at it as one small tool in a much larger toolbox.

Maybe someday our grandkids can just show up for 2 hours a year of voting to see the arc of the moral universe continue to bend towards justice. But that's not us.. we have to roll up our sleeves, get dirty, and make it loving bend.

Yinlock posted:

It doesn't seem to actually be reducing harm, is the thing. Instead it just sends a giant message that you can be taken for granted.

Mmm, the hypothesis that our present would be no different if in the past we'd just let Republicans win every elected position in government, is certainly an interesting one. Maybe a little unfair to Republicans though, I kind of feel like they've been working extra hard lately, to highlight the subtle differences in their policy priorities.

Shall we test this hypothesis? No one votes for the Democrats in the upcoming mid-terms and we'll see if that leads to Democrats implementing more progressive policies.

# ¿ Jun 25, 2022 08:41

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Whoops, hood slipped a bit there. You really never have to wait long with them.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1540852015693037568

# ¿ Jun 26, 2022 06:32

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

This isn't rocket science. People should be for/doing whatever keeps the Republicans out of power, whether that be voting, working on political campaigns (at every level of government), litigation, organizing their community for direct action campaigns, protest marches, sit-ins, et al.

The only thing people shouldn't be doing is anything that puts Republicans in power. We are not in a thought experiment. Fascists taking power affects real people in the now. If you're for anything that puts Republicans in power then you may not be on the side you think you're on.The people who struggle to distinguish the differences in the two parties and act accordingly are going to have those differences made clear to them very soon.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Jun 26, 2022

# ¿ Jun 26, 2022 17:00

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

BiggerBoat posted:

This seems bad and reflects what a lot of posters here are saying as well. I'm genuinely not surprised.

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-covid-health-presidential-e50db07385831e67f866ec45402be8b9

More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems

WASHINGTON (AP) � A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party�s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country � Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns � in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

But nowhere is the shift more pronounced � and dangerous for Democrats � than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump�s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back

�It�s more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right,� said Smith, a 37-year-old professional counselor whose transition away from the Democratic Party began five or six years ago when he registered as a libertarian.

Lately it sure seems like eight years of Bush and four years of Trump hasn't taught anyone a single thing. Guess it's back to the classroom.

Raccooon posted:

This was pretty much expected since Biden�s victory was built on the shakiest coalition we have seen a Democrat have in a long time. It was only get rid of Trump and he did that so the coalition has nothing holding it together anymore.

It might end up actually being worse for the Democrats long term that Biden won with it in 2020 since they pushed away young people and their base to build this coalition and Biden is now very unpopular. The suburbanites will return to the Republicans and leave the Democrats with a shattered coalition.

True.

It also can't be overemphasized the absolute terrible luck the economy has been. Like, it's not even all that complicated why it's happening, but people really seem to struggle with concepts like context and nuance and when ignoring those things goes towards supporting conclusions they've already drawn, you'd have better luck explaining supply chain shock to a horse.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Jun 27, 2022

# ¿ Jun 27, 2022 19:07

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Pro read NYT News Analysis that lays out the recent big Conservative power plays along with a map of the battle ahead.

"NYT posted:

Supreme Court Throws Abortion to an Unlevel State Playing Field

The Supreme Court�s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade shifted the abortion fight to state legislatures, where gerrymandering has given Republicans an advantage.

In his concurring opinion to the Supreme Court�s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh struck a note of optimism that democracy and the will of the people would prevail, even on the agonizing issue of a woman�s right to end a pregnancy.

�The nine unelected Members of this Court do not possess the constitutional authority to override the democratic process,� he wrote, adding that the court�s decision merely �restores the people�s authority to address the issue of abortion through the processes of democratic self-government.�

States, in other words, hold the power.

For Democrats, that is extraordinarily bad news: In many states, including Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia and Florida, abortion�s new battleground is decidedly unlevel, tilted by years of Republican efforts to gerrymander state legislatures while Democrats largely focused on federal politics. As abortion becomes illegal in half of the country, democratic self-governance may be nearly out of reach for some voters.

By neutralizing federal rights and powers, the Supreme Court is turning states into battle zones. That goes beyond abortion and includes voting, immigration and civil rights. And if, as expected, the court restricts the federal government�s ability to regulate carbon dioxide, state governments, stepping in for a gridlocked Congress, will be left to address climate change as well. That would leave the future of the fight to lawmakers in places such as Sacramento and Oklahoma City.

Even as leaders of conservative advocacy groups celebrated a landmark victory on Friday decades in the making, they said that they were already gearing up for the next phase of the battle in statehouses and state Supreme Courts.

Thirteen states have so-called trigger laws designed to effectively ban abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade.

Others could look to strike the right to abortion from state constitutions. And still others, like Michigan and Wisconsin, have old laws predating Roe that ban abortion and that abortion rights advocates and political leaders are now trying to block.

�There is definitely going to be a lot of action in the states,� said Carrie Severino, the president of the Judicial Crisis Network, a conservative legal advocacy group that has helped elevate Republican judges. �The challenge is which states are going to have state courts that are likely to be well to the left of the people."

Democrats may have won the popular presidential vote in five out of the last six elections, but Republicans control 23 state legislatures while Democrats lead 14 � with 12 bicameral state legislatures divided between the parties. (Nebraska�s legislature is elected on a nonpartisan basis.)

In a very real sense, the country is pulling apart, with blocks of liberal states on the West Coast and in the Northeast moving ahead with one agenda as the conservative center of the country moves in the opposite direction. State compacts on the coasts, for instance, have moved forward to stem emissions of climate-warming pollution while fossil fuel-dependent states in the center press for more production of oil, gas and coal.

The divisions have only been compounded in Washington, where Congress�s extremely narrow Democratic majority has been unable to pass significant legislation on climate change, voting rights, immigration or abortion rights, leaving those weighty issues to the courts and regulatory agencies. The Supreme Court�s 6-3 conservative majority is now making it clear that such matters must be decided by the people�s representatives. With Washington in gridlock, those representatives will have to be found in the states.

�What we are seeing is a pendulum that is swinging back to state power over fundamental rights,� said S. Karthick Ramakrishnan, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Riverside. �This is the result of decades of investment by movement conservatives.�

In states where the voting populations are ideologically divided, the political direction of governance in state capitals may be driven more by partisan power structures put in place by politicians than by public opinion. Even though the Supreme Court says it wants to empower voters, it ruled in 2019 that federal courts did not have the power to hear challenges to partisan gerrymandering. Its decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission also removed many controls on campaign contributions, making it that much harder for statehouse battles to be waged in anything like a fair fight.

Unshackled by the Supreme Court and often largely unopposed by Democrats, conservative organizations backed by billionaires like Charles Koch � including the American Legislative Exchange Council and the Republican State Leadership Committee � set out more than a decade ago to dominate policymaking at the state level. And now, unfettered by the constitutional rights under Roe, that dominance can come to fruition on abortion access, often regardless of public opinion.

�Kavanaugh�s na�ve theory is that the people speak and the legislature listens,� said Samuel S. Wang, the director of the Gerrymandering Project at Princeton University. �But for that to happen, you need a mechanism for their influence to be felt, and in some states, what you have are political parties building a system to keep themselves in power.�

In Ohio, Republicans hold an undeniable edge statewide, but it�s nothing like their 64-35 edge in the Statehouse or their 25-8 edge in the State Senate. Those advantages will likely yield a near-total abortion ban in the coming weeks. Because the gerrymandering of state legislative lines is so extreme, the only competition that Republican lawmakers fear is from even more conservative Republicans.

In Wisconsin, Democrats hold virtually every statewide office, including governor. Yet, waves of gerrymandering have left Republicans with close to a supermajority in the State Senate and Assembly. That means an abortion ban that was passed in 1849, when only white men could vote, is set to go back into force now that Roe v. Wade has been overturned.

�Because the structure of Wisconsin�s ultragerrymandered maps are so rigged against small-d democracy, we are going to have a law on the books that the overwhelming majority of Wisconsinites oppose,� said Ben Wikler, the chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.

Georgia voted in 2020 for President Biden and for two Democratic senators, but those same voters barely made a dent in the state�s Senate and House. With the repeal of Roe v. Wade, Georgia�s law that passed in 2019 banning abortion after six weeks will soon take effect, and state lawmakers say they could tighten it.

Similar imbalances show up in Florida and North Carolina, where narrowly divided voting populations live under statehouses and state supreme courts that will determine the future of abortion with little need to reflect public opinion. Texas recharged the national battle over abortion last year after the Supreme Court refused to block a law passed by its Republican-controlled Legislature that banned abortions after six weeks and allowed deputized ordinary citizens to enforce the law.

The repeal of Roe v. Wade will trigger another law virtually eliminating the right to abortion in Texas in the coming weeks. Republicans are now discussing legislation to potentially allow district attorneys to prosecute people who are involved in abortions in neighboring counties and criminally punish anyone who helps a woman get an abortion in another state.

State Representative Briscoe Cain, a Republican, called the overturning of Roe v. Wade �a victory� for judicial philosophy.

�The issue should have been left to the states the entire time,� he said.

The state push has been intentional. The landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, passed after years of a bloody civil rights struggle that swelled from the ground up, helped conservatives recognize the importance of state power, Dr. Ramakrishnan said. Over the next five decades, conservatives heavily invested in legal scholarship and state level advocacy, as veterans of those earlier civil rights battles and newer crops of progressives tended to focus on federal policy.

�You can think of it as an erosion of rights from below,� he said.

In 2010, after successive Democratic waves left Republican power at a low ebb, Republican organizations devised what they called Project Redmap, pouring $30 million into state legislative races. They were confident that a backlash against Barack Obama, who was president then, in a redistricting year would yield a stranglehold on state capitals for years to come.

It worked.

Democrats insist now that they can fight back. The power of issues rising to the forefront this summer � not just abortion, but also gun violence and the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection � could energize Democratic voters and sway enough Republicans to defy the partisan breakdowns of some gerrymandered districts.

�Your ability to cast a ballot or your access to abortion care is going to be more dependent on ZIP code more than it has in the past,� said Lindsay Langholz, a director at the American Constitution Society, a progressive legal organization.

Laphonza Butler, the president of Emily�s List, the powerful political action committee that has helped elect hundreds of women who support abortion rights, said her organization began shifting its focus to state governor�s races and legislative elections around 2016.

That shift came about as Republicans chipped away at the right to abortion. Emily�s List is now centered on backing Democratic candidates running in key states, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Stacey Abrams, who is seeking the governorship in Georgia.

�We are as angry as everyone else, and we are prepared to meet this moment,� Ms. Butler said.

# ¿ Jun 27, 2022 20:44

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Good Christ.

Also from what I've seen of Conservative discussions on Harris, they would pay us all actual money if we ran her in 2024.

# ¿ Jun 29, 2022 05:35

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

HonorableTB posted:

the Dems lack GOOD messaging
snip...

At least as far as good presentation and messaging goes I think they're on it with the Jan 6 hearing...

-Blackadder- posted:

Been mentioned before but they actually hired an ex-ABC Producer to put together hearings and it's clearly paying off in spades. Here's a good read on it.

The Dems have really knocked these hearings out of the park. After decades of being completely oblivious to "shallow" concepts like PR, presentation, and messaging, wondering why they keep getting steamrolled and no one ever remembers the good things they've done, someone finally realized that when only 36% of your electorate can even name all three branches of government, messaging matters.

Although, I also wouldn't be surprised if all these deft moves, like the ABC Producer and hitting the Republicans back with a surprise hearing right after the Abortion decision, are from Cheney on her Punisher revenge crusade showing them how it's done.

One thing that's always been interesting in an "us vs them" comparison, that I never really realized until I started trolling r/Conservative and r/AskConservatives, is how much of the popular media space we dominate.

Hollywood apparently suffers no Conservative. Awhile back I came across an article and book about a semi-secret private club in Hollywood for Conservative actors formed by Gary Sinise called the Friends of Abe. The descriptions of them complaining miserably into their drinks about how blacklisted and ostracized they were for being Conservative was hilarious and pretty dark. Hollywood Liberals don't play.

Then there's "our" mainstream media, which is...mainstream, and theirs is this weird vestigial thing that doesn't even pretend not to be an arm of the GOP.

There's reddit, twitter, et al. They have to build their own little online safe space out in Hooverville to not be constantly shouted down.

State and Private College campuses: mostly ours.

It's interesting, we have all that media space and we still can't get our messaging straight. We literally own Hollywood and the two biggest former-actor-turned-politicians ended up being two of the most monstrous Republican Presidents in history.

I don't know what the answer is, but we need to figure it out and stop loving around with these people.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 07:15 on Jun 29, 2022

# ¿ Jun 29, 2022 06:59

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Hilary is purestrain East Coast Liberal White lady and has said some unbelievably racist poo poo in the past, but ironically, I thought she would've been decent in the chair.

She had some of the most exec experience of any one coming into the job, I think. She stomped all over Trump in debates like an academic decathlete. She seemed to have put an extensive amount of work into prepping for the position by study and making sure she knew her stuff, maybe even more than Obama's nerdy rear end. (It's been awhile so I could be misremembering).

The only real issue was likability/campaigning. Obviously those are important because candidates need to get elected to do the job. But it was frustrating watching what was basically the honor student; someone who was practically over-prepared, stand next to the kid whose three sentences of notes are wrapped in chewing gum in his back pocket so he basically just made poo poo up. Like yeah, these candidates need to get elected but, Trump had to have his own stupid name fed to him in briefing reports to keep his attention. It couldn't have been more cartoonish if you recruited a pet rock to fly the space shuttle. It would be nice if we could at least acknowledge that this is a job important enough to be done by a semi-competent, informed person, who values knowledge. I feel like things have gotten so bad that we haven't even bothered to shoot for that standard in a while.

As for Harris, no black people I know, that know who she is, like her.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 08:04 on Jun 29, 2022

# ¿ Jun 29, 2022 07:56

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

I think she was significantly more experienced and knowledgeable about the intricacies of the job than Trump was. But her ego seemed to be a major issue. Regardless the bar is too low.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 08:26 on Jun 29, 2022

# ¿ Jun 29, 2022 08:11

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

TheIncredulousHulk posted:

Harris being weak and unpopular is a feature for the party power brokers, not a bug. The more help a candidate needs to stay afloat, the more leverage you have if you're in a position to provide that help, and the more compliant the candidate will be toward your goals

Perhaps, but she doesn't look to have much of a future beyond "candidate", anyone that hitches to her coattails will spend the next 4-8 years power brokering from oblivion while DeSantis turns the country into Florida.

# ¿ Jun 29, 2022 09:03

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The Supreme Court just rolled back most of the effects of a 2018 decision on tribal rights that Gorsuch wrote.

5-4, with Gorsuch joining the liberals and writing a furious dissent about how the majority are playing politics and not reading the constitution honestly. He compares their decision to Andrew Jackson flouting tribal sovereignty laws just to make a point that they have dominion over the land and any tribal sovereignty only exists because they allow it. He also says that the court is acting like "the rule of law means nothing."

Would be a lot funnier if the reason it is so funny wasn't also so depressing.

Yeah, after Louisiana it doesn't seem like they're bothering to hide it anymore. Like Jaxyon said in the SCOTUS thread, the time of pretending has passed.

# ¿ Jun 29, 2022 15:30

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Sinema actually said the opposite.

She said there are people who had problems with specific provisions, but would never be the one to sink the bill and would reluctantly vote for it without saying anything, who told her they were glad she was objecting to those provisions publicly because they wouldn't do it.

Given everything we've learned about group dynamics and human decision making in Social Psychology in the last 60 years this is indeed the most likely scenario, at least for the majority. It's also not entirely surprising to note that both Manchin and Sinema have somewhat "quirky" personality types given, not only their willingness, but that they sometimes seem almost gleeful about publicly opposing their in-group.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Jun 29, 2022

# ¿ Jun 29, 2022 21:45

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Youth Decay posted:

Pete Buttigieg of all people gave a very good answer when pressed on late-term abortion that went semi-viral during the general election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKOoWYfIzIw
https://twitter.com/occamsrazor45/status/1315443201516371972

This is solid. Always forget how good a speaker he is.

A friend mentioned she was against abortion when I brought it up the other day, she's a 64 y/o secretary. She immediately referenced the graphic pictures and that was pretty much the entirety of her reasoning for the position. I walked her through some of the basic medical realities, late-term stats, wrapped up with Ireland/Savita Halappanavar, and she was receptive.

It's a shame everyone's locked in their own media ecosystem now. There's obviously a few sadists running around in the GOP but the primary issue with most people is really an information one. That goes for all our problems really. Getting people past thinking in binary, or a single axis is the difficult part, and also just getting them to engage with any info that conflicts with whatever they have established. Not entirely complex concepts, but so far reaching in their impact that they'll be referenced on our tombstone:

"Here lies humanity, failed to solve Collective Action problems due to nuance and cognitive dissonance".

# ¿ Jun 30, 2022 22:46

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Eric Cantonese posted:

Someone on my Facebook shared screencaps of a Twitter thread with these stories, but the account appears to be gone now.

This is amazing. Absolute textbook Cognitive Dissonance.

# ¿ Jul 1, 2022 15:23

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

It's hard to tell who public figures are through the media filter and in reality people can't really be summed up as one thing as they often are anyway. So I don't know how reliably accurate it is, but the general narrative from all the Biden stories certainly seems to be that Biden wants to be seen as a "shrewd deal maker". Perhaps out of altruism or maybe he just thinks it would make him look cool (I think it's the latter). Whether or not he's gotten any better at it over time is TBD.

Pritzker is making big waves right now, he may wait until '28, but he's definitely showing up, and he is the kind of shrewd calculating politician Biden wishes he was.

Also good lord Harris and Pelosi are the absolute worst public speakers in the entire party. At least Pelosi is a good whip, but Harris is a defacto Russian asset. Dems need to call one of their Hollywood pals and get some decent PR.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Jul 1, 2022

# ¿ Jul 1, 2022 16:41

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

TheIncredulousHulk posted:

Well he completely hosed the dog on the fiscal cliff negotiations and in the 2020 debates aggressively characterized that debacle as "beating Mitch McConnell" so yeah altruism seems unlikely. From my vantage point he just seems like a dumb guy who wants to look smart and can be tricked very easily by people who know how to work him

Yeah, this seems to be the most likely scenario to me as well, I guess we'll have to see how this round plays out. I wonder if he has some decent advisors around him? I read somewhere his Chief of Staff had been in Washington politics for a long time, a real connected, establishment guy, but is retiring soon. Biden doesn't seem like the type that would listen to reason anyway, more like just pick a direction and go full speed ahead. Although he'd put his sunglasses on first.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Jul 1, 2022

# ¿ Jul 1, 2022 17:15

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

I am not shocked by that at all. harris is a moron who fell upward and got picked because Biden wasn't sure if Duckworth was legally able to get the VP slot. harris is a worse clinton and i think she loses the primary(the big party dipshits all dislike her too apperently) so it will be Pete or hopefully fetterman or etc in 28 or earlier or whatever.

Pritzker's coming out strong.

Really like Fetterman too, so I'm hoping his recovery is going well. It's a foolish man who ignores his own health, it's what enables him to take care of his responsibilities.

Pete, don't really know much about other than being a competent speaker, from what I hear, ain't really much to the man beyond that, but maybe we'll see.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Jul 1, 2022

# ¿ Jul 1, 2022 21:05

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

I feel like Republicans have spent so much time as the opposition party, where many of their positions are just culture war topics they use to rile people up, without ever having to face the consequences of how people would react in real life if they ever actually implemented those positions.

It's like Brexit: American Culture War Edition

A national ban on Abortion, for example, has something like 7% support with the public. Republicans better hope they do lock in some kind of permanent minority, because if they follow through on implementing all the cartoon culture war nonsense they've been using to get votes, they're gonna see some serious poo poo.

The statistical realities of messing with women's healthcare and exposing millions of women to increased chances of medical issues and accidents like what happened in Ireland is going to be a real shocker. "Dog that caught the car" doesn't even begin to describe what the GOP caught hold of.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Jul 1, 2022

# ¿ Jul 1, 2022 22:39

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

HonorableTB posted:

How'd that turn out?

Things have been crazy lately with everything going on so I haven't had the chance to talk to her about it again, and she isn't someone I see everyday in my normal schedule. Also, lmao, in hindsight I did not come off as smooth as I made it sound in the post you quoted. This stuff isn't really my area of expertise so I was thinking of trying to find a script or something before I talk to her again. But it sounded like it was starting to click for her with the Ireland story.

Trending now, Republicans have absolutely no shame. They really just thought they were gonna stop a bunch of lazy 9 month pregnant women from getting an abortion so they could fit into that swimsuit this summer. Stuff like this is only just getting started.
https://twitter.com/AllenLEllison/status/1543266859029520390

STORY LINK

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Jul 2, 2022

# ¿ Jul 2, 2022 17:24

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Scrotum Modem posted:

The link Ellison gave in the tweet is for a case in Brazil, not Ohio so that's sorta odd. There is in fact a case in Ohio too so he probably just grabbed the Washington Post link without actually reading it

drat, you're right.

Here's a story link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/10-year-old-girl-denied-abortion-in-ohio/ar-AAZ6VAq?cvid=1b99c6a17c71454091805f2cdd35329f

# ¿ Jul 2, 2022 17:44

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

BRJurgis posted:

Call me a doomer, but does anybody see anything changing significantly for the better anytime soon? The way I see it the legal ways we can project our collective will are voting, boycotting, mass strikes, and protests. Some of these options are hardly effective at actually projecting power the legality of some is questionable (especially looking to the future), and they all require large amounts of somewhat organized people with some sort of unifying ideal, goal, or enemy.

This is a good point. Especially since the effectiveness of boycotts and mass strikes are greatly limited by the fact that they almost never seem to leave the planning stages. Protests happen a lot more often and are incredibly effective at raising awareness. The summer BLM was going hard saw a massive rise in support because people were finally seeing what the cops were doing to protesters. However as far as protesting's ability to directly influence actual policy it's probably ranked roughly low-moderate.

Voting (and voting-adjacent action like phone banking, canvasing, and other campaign activities) is still, by a ridiculously large margin, the highest utility alternative to acquire power. Frustrations with imperfections in the system and the players are understandable, but the math doesn't change regardless. The probability that some mass strike or boycott is going prevent Republicans from taking power in November is pretty low. It's entirely possible that the much hyped Glorious American People's Labor Revolution will stop being the Star Citizen of politics and ride in on it's great white horse to save us all but we should probably have a plan on the off chance that it doesn't.

To keep things on Current Events topic the below just came out, maybe a strike and/or boycott will happen after all. My First instinct is this would be the issue that would inspire people. Hopefully this picks up steam.
https://twitter.com/FLKDayton/status/1543557372991492099

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Jul 3, 2022

# ¿ Jul 3, 2022 16:45

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Young Freud posted:

It'll be like the Polish abortion ban strike in which it didn't reverse the ban but slowed things down quite a bit (like derailing the steep criminal penalties for patients, doctors, and abortion doulas) and weakened the governing parties support while radicalizing young women and organizing a real resistance. The important part is to be realistic about a women's strike, in that it would be more of a stepping stone for further action and not the victory. A beachhead, not capturing the capitol.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/08/poland-abortion-ban-women-strike-catholic-religion-progressive-politics/

Great link and model for direct action, gonna pass this around. Hopefully this starts catching on.

# ¿ Jul 3, 2022 17:01

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

LetThemFight.jpg
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1543597783269216259
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1543056220541550592

From Cheney's interview today.

Committee corroborated Hutchinson's testimony
Committee may recommend charges to DOJ for Trump and others (but DOJ doesn't have to wait).
She'll make a decision to run in '24 later.

Trump could announce as early as this month. He clearly sees his window closing, the further along the investigation goes, the more the rats desert the ship.

It's unlikely Cheney wins in Wyoming, but if she runs in 2024 and manages to Ross Perot Trump on her revenge crusade, the Cheney name will go down in history as some kind of Republican urban legend.

Even if she didn't have a significant impact on Trump's numbers it would drive him absolutely up the wall that she's in the race. And they might as well have WWE host the debates.

# ¿ Jul 4, 2022 00:58

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Blue Footed Booby posted:

Meanwhile, in Florida:
https://www.salon.com/2021/06/23/desantis-signs-bill-requiring-florida-students-professors-to-register-political-views-with-state/

Imagine being terrified that a gun registry will be used by the government to round on dissidents, but not being worried about this.

Serious question: is this being cribbed from some pre-written agenda from a think tank or whatever, or is Desantis free-styling? A lot of the stuff I've been seeing coming out of Florida isn't just standard Republican cliches. It raises my eyebrows when these ghouls exhibit creativity.

It's interesting to see DeSantis setting himself up to do the Bush throwback: "I'm a Culture War President." . The guy's entire playbook is just "Anti-Woke" memes. He actually signed an anti-vaccine bill from the small town of Brandon, Florida.

# ¿ Jul 5, 2022 21:25

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

They don't have to actually confiscate every gun. Australia used to have a gun ownership rate only about 13% lower than the U.S. They just had gun buybacks, banned new purchases except for specific reasons, required a license to own one, and required all sales to be done through registered dealers who recorded and reported every sale.

The gun ownership rate dropped by 1/3 in the first year and was down to about 8% 10 years later.

Bishyaler posted:

Fair, what percentage of the population supported the Australian gun ban at the time it was passed?

If you or anyone else hasn't seen it, one of the best things John Oliver ever did was his Australia Gun Control series.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0FLsIzNxkI

The Democratic political strategist's answer to what makes a politician successful is still the best.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 04:52 on Jul 6, 2022

# ¿ Jul 6, 2022 04:37

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Youngkin was on Face the Nation today and people are big mad because he spent the whole time dodging questions like Darren Sproles and yucking it up about his complete ignorance of women's health all while dog whistling into an airhorn attached to a loudspeaker.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1546161682921185280
That plus the following schaden-thread of liberal tears about him reversing the government WFH option means we have just arrived at our regularly scheduled very special Teachable Moment in the voter cycle, wherein voters experience the pangs of regret at once again voting for a Republican because [RememberingReaganComic.jpg].
https://twitter.com/ethanclynne/status/1545551298380152834

"NYT Virginia Voter Focus Group posted:

One of the things you also said in the memo was that McAuliffe�s strategy of linking Mr. Youngkin to former President Donald Trump was ineffective. What in the conversations with your groups made that clear?

The respondents kind of laughed at that approach. They said, �Oh, these silly ads that compared Youngkin to Trump � he just doesn�t seem like that guy.� The thing that these people disliked about Trump was that they didn�t like Donald Trump the person; it wasn�t Donald Trump the constellation of policies.

Whoops.

# ¿ Jul 10, 2022 21:34

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Nelson Mandingo posted:

That worked out so well for them after 2012.

Yeah and this one might fail too, and they know it, but eventually the white racist voter is a well that's going to run dry for the GOP so strategically, this is worth continually trying because they're attempting to get a jump on the next big demographic. And eventually it probably will work because Hispanics, like black folks, are often pretty socially conservative, the difference is black people will never forget what Republicans are, it doesn't matter what party they switch to or what they call themselves, whereas plenty of Latino's are eager to be the black police showing out for the white cop.

The New Yorker recently did probably the most comprehensive deep dive on DeSantis. Some truly amazing stuff, including how he started out as relatively reasonable for a Republican with even some good policy but abandoned that when he realized that voters are basically the Colosseum crowd from Spartacus. Anyway one of the great highlights, completely unrelated to DeSantis, is how barefaced and calculating, and with no loyalty to their voters, the GOP is...

The New Yorker posted:

In office, DeSantis took steps that suggested he intended to govern closer to the center. He buoyed environmentalists by forcing out the nine-member board of the South Florida Water Management District, political appointees who were considered hostile to environmental interests. He named a commission to tackle algae blooms, which befouled rivers and lakes in the southern part of the state. And he appointed several Black jurists. At his inauguration, DeSantis asked the Reverend R. B. Holmes, the pastor of a predominantly Black church in Tallahassee, to lead the prayer. �I was encouraged,� Holmes told me.

For decades, the Democratic Party had commanded a majority of Florida�s registered voters. But the state was changing, as Trump�s election helped energize a shift in political affinities. The Republican Party�s rank and file became increasingly radical, and G.O.P. leaders appeared only too happy to follow them. �There was always an element of the Republican Party that was batshit crazy,� Mac Stipanovich, the chief of staff to Governor Bob Martinez, a moderate Republican, told me. �They had lots of different names�they were John Birchers, they were �movement conservatives,� they were the religious right. And we did what every other Republican candidate did: we exploited them. We got them to the polls. We talked about abortion. We promised�and we did nothing. They could grumble, but their choices were limited.

�So what happened?� Stipanovich continued. �Trump opened Pandora�s box and let them out. And all the nasty stuff that was in the underbelly of American politics got a voice. What was thirty-five per cent of the Republican Party is now eighty-five per cent. And it�s too late to turn back.�

Absolutely fantastic read.

Moderate Republicans built a populist Frankenstein and it triggered the fascist death spiral the GOP is now in, and there's a fair chance they drag the country down with them.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Jul 14, 2022

# ¿ Jul 14, 2022 19:49

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

Willa Rogers posted:

Whether it'll hold, much less accelerate, is another story--but I'd caution anyone paying attention to party politics to spurn caricaturing & ventriloquizing on behalf of "the chuds" (all 70 million of them!) in favor of heeding how the GOP is doing outreach this year, especially as part of an effort toward the long term.

On top of this, there's really zero excuse for the Dems to not be doing waaay better at outreach, both national and local, to every potential voter demographic. It's actually really embarrassing, especially given our access to top level Hollywood talent. If the GOP wants to put on a fundraiser or something they basically get Kid Rock, a few country singers, and James Woods or Jon Voight. We can get pretty much everyone else.

Abrams and her cadre are basically carrying this party on their backs right now.

# ¿ Jul 14, 2022 21:42

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

BiggerBoat posted:

May have already been posted but The New Yorker did a great deep dive on Ron Desantis that's well worth a read

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/27/can-ron-desantis-displace-donald-trump-as-the-gops-combatant-in-chief

Of particular interest to me is how FOX News bascially pushed him and repeatedly had him on to cement his position as a rising star and give him tons of exposure.

Yes it's an excellent article, with a great inside look at the GOP as well.

-Blackadder- posted:

The New Yorker recently did probably the most comprehensive deep dive on DeSantis. Some truly amazing stuff, including how he started out as relatively reasonable for a Republican with even some good policy but abandoned that when he realized that voters are basically the Colosseum crowd from Spartacus. Anyway one of the great highlights, completely unrelated to DeSantis, is how barefaced and calculating, and with no loyalty to their voters, the GOP is...

The New Yorker posted:
In office, DeSantis took steps that suggested he intended to govern closer to the center. He buoyed environmentalists by forcing out the nine-member board of the South Florida Water Management District, political appointees who were considered hostile to environmental interests. He named a commission to tackle algae blooms, which befouled rivers and lakes in the southern part of the state. And he appointed several Black jurists. At his inauguration, DeSantis asked the Reverend R. B. Holmes, the pastor of a predominantly Black church in Tallahassee, to lead the prayer. �I was encouraged,� Holmes told me.

For decades, the Democratic Party had commanded a majority of Florida�s registered voters. But the state was changing, as Trump�s election helped energize a shift in political affinities. The Republican Party�s rank and file became increasingly radical, and G.O.P. leaders appeared only too happy to follow them. �There was always an element of the Republican Party that was batshit crazy,� Mac Stipanovich, the chief of staff to Governor Bob Martinez, a moderate Republican, told me. �They had lots of different names�they were John Birchers, they were �movement conservatives,� they were the religious right. And we did what every other Republican candidate did: we exploited them. We got them to the polls. We talked about abortion. We promised�and we did nothing. They could grumble, but their choices were limited.

�So what happened?� Stipanovich continued. �Trump opened Pandora�s box and let them out. And all the nasty stuff that was in the underbelly of American politics got a voice. What was thirty-five per cent of the Republican Party is now eighty-five per cent. And it�s too late to turn back.�

Absolutely fantastic read.

Moderate Republicans built a populist Frankenstein and it triggered the fascist death spiral the GOP is now in, and there's a fair chance they drag the country down with them.

In addition to the critical point you make about DeSantis being platformed by Fox News, BB, recently all of the GOP mega donors have been leaving Trump high and dry and are making a massive beeline for DeSantis. So now he has them in his camp now too.

DeSantis convenes top donors, fellow GOP govs as 2024 chatter builds

Donald Trump Fundraising Dips Below DeSantis As Strategist Blames 'Fatigue'

The GOP could be heading towards a problem. The establishment is undeniably all in on DeSantis for 2024. But the Frankenstein that effortlessly burned down their playhouse on live television during the 2016 Republican Primary debates seems to still be in play.

The funny thing is, people close to Trump have mentioned several times, that the thing he cares about most is MONEY so the GOP could probably literally pay him off to stay out of 2024, but they still don't understand him, so everyone; Fox News, GOP Mega Donors, and other R influencers are all just packing up shop and going to stand behind DeSantis like they normally would to indicate a shift in support. It's obviously best for the GOP if these two don't fight and if it were any other normal candidate in Trump's position I would expect Trump/DeSantis 2024 to be a locked in R ticket. But when has Trump ever given two shits about what's best for the GOP? It takes almost nothing to set him off. Look at what happened with Elon Musk. One tiny perceived insult could snowball into an all out war. As that big DeSantis article from the New Yorker points out, Trump already has his people doing oppo research on how to take DeSantis down. Nothing we've seen from Trump indicates that he will ever, ever back down. If the GOP try to do an end run around Trump without paying him fealty he'll run against DeSantis out of spite.

The GOP's best play is to get Trump and DeSantis on the same ticket. They definitely could if they play it right, and it seems like the most likely scenario. If Trump feels bodied enough by the Jan 6 hearings and the repositioning of the GOP donors he might be more willing to take DeSantis as a VP. Presidents and VP's traditionally don't spend a lot of time together in office. So it could work.

Either way I don''t see Trump just stepping aside for DeSantis, no matter how much support DeSantis gets, unless the GOP wises up and starts showering Trump with money.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Jul 16, 2022

# ¿ Jul 16, 2022 15:38

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 13:29

-Blackadder-: Jan 2, 2007; Game....Blouses.

cat botherer posted:

I don't think there's really a conflict between the two, and I highly doubt DeSantis would challenge Trump. Our favorite big boy would absolutely steamroll DeSantis in the primaries due to the loyalty he commands. Keep in mind Trump has been less visible of late. Once he starts campaigning, he'll get that free media attention again because he is so good for ratings - just like 2016.

From DeSantis' point of view, there's a lot of risk to running. He's only 43, very young by late American empire-politician standards - he could have a very long career as a fascist ahead of hime. However, if he does run, and he loses against Trump, he's basically done forever. The alternative is to keep doing what he's doing, cementing his reputation and building loyalty, and he'd be a shoo-in to replace Trump in 2028.

This is what I was thinking too. He's got plenty of time. There's no reason for him to go against Trump now. But I keep reading people saying that he'll be out of office for a few years by 2028 and may miss his window, but I don't know if that really matters. Maybe it's different today, but Nixon was around in politics for a long time before he finally won POTUS so I don't see the big deal with DeSantis waiting until 2028, I feel like it's the smart play for him. But he's getting a big push from the GOP establishment who clearly fear a rehash of 2020 if Trump runs again.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Jul 16, 2022

# ¿ Jul 16, 2022 15:56

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

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