USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

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Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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BRJurgis posted:

Reporting in from the northeast: yesterday I was mulching outside a bank (which was closed as teenth was on sunday) and got to hear five or so people exclaim "what the gently caress" finding it closed, and then further "are you loving kidding me?!?!" upon learning about juneteenth. It was hard to keep my mouth shut, but I do have to have some sense while wearing company colors.

Also just walking about I heard random other work crews bitching or chortling about the "holiday - can you believe this bullshit!?"

I'm genuinely surprised at how awful people are and it's hard not to go full misanthrope in the face of poo poo like that.

I do think things like the holiday or forms of representation, while important to affected groups, aren't far from the entirely performative gesturing corporations and politicians will do. If people yesterday were complaining in that sense it would be so much more tolerable. No, though, just selfish ignorant reactionary outrage because they were mildly inconvienanced and didn't read or listen to news at all apparently. Step two is determining its because of the "other" (blacks? Democrats?!?) and then loudly bitching to signal/dog whistle so your pathetic rear end can feel both wronged and part of something.

This culture war insanity is part of the reason I can no longer see political solutions. I know things have been a lot worse in the past but drat it sure feels like we're backsliding.

Getting an extra day off every year in perpetuity is probably the best thing Biden has done and the fact that it ends up simultaneously educating and bothering some of the worst people in the country is just a bonus.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 13:40

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 13:44

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Biden administration is announcing a dramatic plan this week to require all cigarettes sold in the U.S. to eliminate nearly all nicotine from their products.

It wouldn't start until at least 2024, but cigarette manufacturers will have to remove 95% to 99% of nicotine from their products.

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1539227902671060992

quote:

The Science Behind Biden�s Nicotine Plan

Policy set to be announced this week follows over a decade of research suggesting sharp reduction of nicotine would help cigarette smokers quit; tobacco industry questions the research and its conclusions

Fifteen years ago, a group of scientists, government officials and tobacco control veterans met to discuss a hypothesis: Could reducing nicotine in cigarettes break smokers� addiction?

The scientific studies that stemmed from that discussion form the basis for a policy the Biden administration is expected to announce as early as Tuesday. Under this plan, the Food and Drug Administration would require the elimination of nearly all nicotine from cigarettes sold in the U.S.

�This would be really historic,� said Dorothy Hatsukami, a professor at the University of Minnesota and one of the lead scientists on the project. �You can actually change smoking behavior.�

The research, funded by the federal government and conducted by about a dozen universities over the past decade, has shown that when people use cigarettes with very low nicotine levels, they smoke fewer cigarettes, become less dependent on cigarettes, are exposed to fewer toxicants and make more attempts to quit. Smokers of these cigarettes were more likely to quit or seek their nicotine fix from less-harmful alternatives such as e-cigarettes or gum compared with smokers who continued using regular cigarettes.

The tobacco industry questions these findings.

The policy could sharply decrease U.S. cigarette sales. Marlboro maker Altria Group Inc. and Newport maker Reynolds American Inc. sell alternative products such as nicotine pouches, but revenue for both companies comes predominantly from cigarettes.

One of the tobacco-policy veterans at the 2007 meeting was Mitch Zeller, who at the FDA in the 1990s had investigated U.S. tobacco companies, leading the agency to conclude that the companies had manipulated nicotine levels in cigarettes to sustain smokers� addiction. The scientists included Dr. Hatsukami and Neal Benowitz of the University of California, San Francisco�both researchers into nicotine addiction.

Dr. Benowitz had co-written a paper in 1994 hypothesizing that one could curb smokers� addiction�and prevent young people from getting addicted in the first place�by gradually reducing the level of nicotine in cigarettes over 10 to 15 years.

Nicotine is the addictive chemical that hooks people on cigarettes. Nicotine itself doesn�t cause cancer or lung disease, according to the FDA. Those diseases are caused by scores of other harmful constituents in cigarette smoke.

�Addiction really means the loss of control,� Dr. Benowitz said in an interview. When someone is addicted to a harmful product, he said, �you lose the ability to make a reasoned decision. You�ve lost the freedom to make those judgments.�

Nearly 90% of adult daily smokers got hooked on cigarettes before they turned 18, Mr. Zeller said.

In a series of meetings following the first discussion in 2007, the group mapped out a research plan to answer key questions: Could reducing nicotine in cigarettes curb smokers� addiction? If so, what would the right level of nicotine be? And should it be reduced gradually or all at once?

The researchers also would examine whether a reduction of nicotine in cigarettes could create any risks to public health, for example by pushing people to smoke more, rather than less.

In 2009, Congress passed the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, giving the FDA regulatory control over tobacco. The law made clear that the agency had the authority to mandate a reduction of nicotine in cigarettes�but only if scientific research demonstrated that the policy would benefit public health. In a provision for which tobacco companies had lobbied, the law stipulated that the FDA couldn�t eliminate nicotine in cigarettes entirely.

The researchers found that if cigarettes� nicotine strength was reduced moderately, smokers would inhale more deeply or smoke more cigarettes to compensate and satisfy their nicotine cravings. But if smokers used a research cigarette with about 95% less nicotine than a typical cigarette, they smoked fewer cigarettes and had decreased dependency. The researchers concluded that the nicotine strength should be reduced immediately on a specific date, rather than tapered down gradually.

The FDA now has enough evidence to support a rule requiring the near-elimination of nicotine in all cigarettes sold in the U.S., Mr. Zeller said. The rule wouldn�t take effect for several years.

�The public-health return on investment on this is on an almost unimaginable scale,� said Mr. Zeller, who went on to oversee U.S. tobacco regulation as director of the FDA�s Center for Tobacco Products from 2013 until his retirement earlier this year.

Cigarette smoking is the most dangerous way to consume nicotine, according to public-health officials. While very-low-nicotine cigarettes are less addictive, researchers say, their smoke still contains most of the same carcinogenic compounds as regular cigarette smoke. FDA officials have said the goal of the policy is to prevent future generations from becoming addicted to cigarettes and to help current smokers quit or switch to less-harmful alternatives. According to an FDA study published in 2018, such a rule would prompt an additional 13 million adult smokers to quit within five years of implementation.

The U.S. tobacco industry is gearing up to fight the proposal. Cigarette companies argue that the science isn�t conclusive. Industry executives also point to the fact that many study participants cheated by smoking regular cigarettes when they were supposed to be smoking only low-nicotine cigarettes. Researchers acknowledge this point.

�That certainly is a limitation of the studies, because people did not fully comply,� Dr. Benowitz said. Despite the cheating, participants reduced their nicotine intake by 70%, he said. One study in which participants couldn�t cheat because they were confined to hotel rooms showed that people smoked more intensely at first, but that the behavior declined after a week. Dr. Hatsukami added that if the policy were implemented, smokers wouldn�t have easy access to cigarettes with traditional levels of nicotine.

The tobacco companies also say the policy could lead to consumer confusion around the health risks of very-low-nicotine cigarettes. There is widespread misunderstanding in the U.S. about the health risks of nicotine. An FDA study published in 2017 found that about 75% of people either were unsure of the relationship between nicotine and cancer or incorrectly believed that nicotine causes cancer.

Drs. Benowitz and Hatsukami said they, too, are concerned about public misperceptions around nicotine and cigarettes. They said the policy should be accompanied by a public-education campaign to help people understand the purpose of reducing nicotine in cigarettes.

�The most harmful effect of nicotine is sustaining addiction to cigarettes,� Dr. Benowitz said. �If you need to take nicotine, you don�t need to take it in a way that will kill you.�

Dr. Hatsukami�s research now is looking at which alternatives�such as e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, patches or gum�people switch to when using very-low-nicotine cigarettes.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:13 on Jun 21, 2022

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 14:06

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Blue Footed Booby posted:

Also, there's a point where you've functionally just banned cigarettes.

Current law actually prohibits banning cigarettes completely. That's why they are using executive action to remove 99% of nicotine under the authority of a cigarette regulation bill passed under Obama.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 14:33

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Discendo Vox posted:

I need to do more reading on this proposed cigarette change. At root, the greatest harm involved is the nicotine itself for its addictive effects; I'm concerned with any policy plan that doesn't ultimately countenance strangling the nicotine industry (but if that were the goal, they likely wouldn't state it).

It says in the article that it isn't a ban on nicotine in every product - just tobacco products.

Nicotine has health risks by itself, but the vast majority of health risks from smoking comes from the tobacco and other products.

Gum, patches, and e-cigs won't be required to remove all of their nicotine. Part of the further study and follow-up plan involves people switching to other sources of nicotine. The goal is to make cigarettes essentially non-addictive to prevent people from getting hooked in the future and make people currently addicted to nicotine switch to less deadly options.

quote:

Cigarette smoking is the most dangerous way to consume nicotine, according to public-health officials. While very-low-nicotine cigarettes are less addictive, researchers say, their smoke still contains most of the same carcinogenic compounds as regular cigarette smoke. FDA officials have said the goal of the policy is to prevent future generations from becoming addicted to cigarettes and to help current smokers quit or switch to less-harmful alternatives. According to an FDA study published in 2018, such a rule would prompt an additional 13 million adult smokers to quit within five years of implementation.

quote:

�The most harmful effect of nicotine is sustaining addiction to cigarettes,� Dr. Benowitz said. �If you need to take nicotine, you don�t need to take it in a way that will kill you.�

Dr. Hatsukami�s research now is looking at which alternatives�such as e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, patches or gum�people switch to when using very-low-nicotine cigarettes.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 15:27

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Biden considering supporting some measures to reduce gas prices, but basically all of them are destined to go nowhere.

- Biden is considering supporting a federal gas tax holiday (current federal gas tax is ~18 cents per gallon), but the effort is likely dead in Congress.

- Biden is considering supporting sending out gas rebate cards, but the effort is likely dead in Congress and, even if it wasn't dead in Congress, they don't know if there are enough chips available to send gas cards to everyone due to the current chip shortage.

- He is calling the heads of all the major gas companies to the White House to meet with staff "so I can get an explanation of how they justify making $35 billion in the first quarter" and because he wants "an explanation from them on why they aren't refining more oil." Says he is ruling out meeting them personally, though. There's very few options the U.S. can do to lower gas prices and this is most likely a publicity stunt to look like he is trying and is not going to lead to any meaningful change in prices. Even if U.S. refining was the one thing keeping global oil prices high (it is not), it would still take multiple years to expand refining and extraction capacity.

The latest student loan info:

- Biden will announce his student loan cancellation plan sometime near the end of July or August.

- Details aren't finalized, but it will likely be $10,000 flat forgiveness for everyone as a base. Modifications they are considering:

1) Increasing the amount forgiven for lower-income debtors with high balance loans.
2) Excluding people who have been in the top 3% of incomes (~$313,000 per year) for the last 3 years in a row.
3) Asking Congress to authorize the Secretary of Education to waive interest on existing loans and issue no interest student loans (not going anywhere in congress).

- Student loan pause that expires in September likely to be extended at least one more time until 2023.

Also, Biden didn't explicitly say that BBB negotiations are totally dead, but said that he is very confident that they can get price caps on insulin, reductions in Medicare costs, and "some" investments in renewable energy passed before the election. He said negotiations are currently underway for those and nothing is happening regarding a larger BBB right now.

Seems to indicate that they are taking the drug pricing and some renewable provisions out of BBB, trying to pass them together via reconciliation before the election, and letting the rest of it die for good.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1538968941644636161
https://www.businessinsider.com/student-loan-forgiveness-decision-near-biden-pause-extension-on-table-2022-6

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Jun 21, 2022

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 15:56

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Zophar posted:

Every time they extended the student loan moratorium the harder they make it to justify turning them back on again. The fact that the material details of the economy, inflation, cost of goods, etc., are dramatically worse than they were at the start of 2020 doesn't make the case any easier too. What the gently caress are they even doing.

At least the federal government's paralysis and inability to make any tough decisions is benefiting people instead of hurting them this time?

:shrug:

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 16:12

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Star Man posted:

What good does freezing the gas tax do? It's coroorate greed, not regulation jacking uo the price, right?

According to the CNN article, it would reduce gas prices for consumers by about 14.2 cents per gallon and gas retailers would make an additional 4.4 cents per gallon on retail sales.

It's not going to happen either way, but the appeal is that it is something they can do that has an immediate impact.

The gas tax pays for the federal highway fund, so a lot of congressional Democrats are against it.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

it would look good and it might knock a dollar off or so, gas will probably slowly fall and if biden at least does vague poo poo to try to alivate the pain at the pump, it might help him and the situation a bit.

The federal gas tax is only 18.6 cents per gallon. It won't knock anywhere near a dollar off, even if 100% of the reduction went to retail prices.

As noted above, the estimate is a 14.2 cents per gallon reduction in retail prices.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Jun 21, 2022

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 16:26

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Seyser Koze posted:

Or people will smoke more to get their fix.

According to the study, people only smoke more if they gradually reduce the nicotine. If they reduce it all at once, then a majority quit smoking or switched to other nicotine sources. It also prevents huge amounts of people from getting addicted in the first place.

quote:

The researchers found that if cigarettes� nicotine strength was reduced moderately, smokers would inhale more deeply or smoke more cigarettes to compensate and satisfy their nicotine cravings. But if smokers used a research cigarette with about 95% less nicotine than a typical cigarette, they smoked fewer cigarettes and had decreased dependency.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 17:26

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Elon Musk is speaking at an economic Q&A in Qatar.

- He confirmed that he is moving forward with his plan to create a Super PAC that will fund "moderates who aren't on the super extremes" in congressional races and Ron DeSantis for President. He says he currently plans to "only" contribute $25 million and will see where it goes from there.

- He is still hedging about whether he will go through with the Twitter deal. Saying that Twitter hasn't provided him with the information on bots he has asked for.

- Tells people to buy Dogecoin and says he will purchase more Dogecoin in the future.

- Says Tesla will reduce its salaried workforce by 10% in the next 3 months, increase its hourly workforce, and end remote work for most employees.

- Says that he has to take everything into consideration for his businesses, but doesn't foresee making any concessions to China regarding Twitter to support his Chinese Tesla production plants.

- Says his goal is to get "half of the world's population" on Twitter in the next 5 years.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1539157866250133505

# ¿ Jun 21, 2022 17:59

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Biden is asking Congress to suspend the federal gas tax for 3 months (most likely dead in Congress) and to provide other forms of direct relief (almost definitely dead in Congress).

Since they are both likely dead in Congress, he is also asking states to suspend their state level gas taxes and provide "commensurate" direct relief through "consumer rebates, relief payments, or delaying planned tax and fee increases."

He says federal direct relief will cost about $10 billion and wants states to at least match that.

Unless Congress does actually authorize direct aid or suspend the gas tax, then this is effectively just asking states to spend more money. Some states might do that, but you probably aren't going to see a ton of movement in places where they haven't already been willing to do so.

His plan doesn't specify how Congress should make up the $10 billion that goes to the highway fund, so that is going to make it even less likely to pass. Democrats don't want to defund the transportation budget and Republicans don't want to raise revenue from anywhere else, so hard to see how they get 60 votes for that.

The White House is having a press conference with full details about the plan and a Q&A 3 PM today.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1539534047210266624

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Jun 22, 2022

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 14:26

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Edit: Double posted somehow, despite the 10-second post timer.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 14:26

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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The White House has apparently not told Congress about the details of this plan until today, so that will surely make them happy.

quote:

The official said the administration was "encouraged by the fact" that members of the House and Senate have already made similar proposals to what Biden will call for on Wednesday, but suggested the White House had yet to engage in depth with members of Congress on this topic -- saying "we expect to" engage with Congress.

According to several studies, between 65% and 72% of the suspended gas tax has been passed onto consumers when it has been done before.

State gas taxes vary, but if every state and the federal government suspended their taxes for 3 months, then it would reduce consumer prices by an average of between 33.54 cents per gallon and 37.15 cents per gallon for 3 months.

~35 cents isn't nothing, but it's not enormous. And you need a lot of things to go right just to get that ~35 cents per gallon.

The impact of direct aid and whatever his plan about increasing refinery capacity is harder to quantify and will most likely be close to 0 in both cases anyway.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 14:53

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

FDA seems to be making a lot of big moves against tobacco products this week.

The FDA just made a surprise announcement that Juul will have to remove all of its products from the U.S. market effective immediately.

Juul was famous for being responsible for the rise of tobacco use in youth for the first time in 40 years in 2018. They are small single-use cartridges with very high nicotine content (a single pod has roughly as much nicotine as an entire pack of cigarettes/200 cigarette puffs) and fruity flavors.

Juul had been in legal limbo for a while after the FDA banned fruity flavoring in products with high levels of nicotine and the FDA started a 4-year review of the impact of Juul on teen tobacco use.

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1539602220685135875

quote:

FDA to Order Juul E-Cigarettes off U.S. Market

The Food and Drug Administration is preparing to order Juul Labs Inc. to take its e-cigarettes off the U.S. market, according to people familiar with the matter.

The FDA could announce its decision as early as Wednesday, the people said. The marketing denial order would follow a nearly two-year review of data presented by the vaping company, which sought authorization for its tobacco- and menthol-flavored products to stay on the U.S. market.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 15:07

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

former Florida candidate for Governor Andrew Gillum was indicted today for campaign fraud.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1539618246147579905

Hopefully, it is for something exciting like the meth or the hookers that his friend ordered to just "hang out" in their hotel room.

But, it is probably something boring like buying a car or paying his mortgage.

Speaking of Florida Governors, DeSantis has moved from "very likely to run" to "definitely running."

He's not asking for Trump's endorsement and doesn't want him to come campaign for his re-election.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1539594397179846657

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 15:55

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

As suspected, gas tax suspension is already likely dead before they even made the official announcement of the plan today at 3 pm.

Additional direct aid almost assuredly dead as well.

That basically leaves:

- Lower some tariffs and hope that the generally lower cost of imports translates into some lower inflation.
- Ask states to provide direct aid or suspend their gas tax.
- Get American refineries to increase production.

As the only parts of the plan that might still happen.

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1539628314796724229

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 16:19

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

projecthalaxy posted:

This might be a stupid question (and is not a demand or policy statement) but if (part of) the problem is the gas companies aren't making enough gas so the gas stations have to charge more, could the President decide that nobody being able to drive to work or the grocery store is an emergency and use the Defense Powers Act (I think is the name) to like make them make more? Like they did with baby formula earlier this year I think?

Seems like the Actual President should (not necessarily can in the current system) do more than ask nicely idk.

American refineries are below capacity, but not by much, and American refineries also account for a very small amount of the world's oil refining.

The problem isn't that they are refining too little. It's that there is too little crude oil available for cheap to meet the demand of the entire world. A lot of the "easy" oil in the world has already been extracted. New sources of oil require much more time and expense to extract.

Plus, the ~3 billion people of India, China, and parts of Africa that have historically used far less oil and gas per capita than other countries are all growing and needing larger amounts of energy.

It's basically a global problem and unless we discover a magic source of cheap and easily extractable oil or transition to a new energy source that is as effective and cheaper than oil, then there isn't much anyone can do about it in the short to medium term.

More than half of global inflation is related to energy costs, the next largest chunk is supply chain problems, and then the next largest chunk is individual fiscal/monetary policies in each country. Individual countries have no real control over the first two.

The U.K. inflation rate is 9.1%.
The U.S. inflation rate is 8.7%
The average E.U. inflation rate is 8.1%
Some countries in central Africa and Latin America have 15+% inflation rates.

They can fiddle around with spending and monetary policy to move it a bit, but most of it is out of their control and the result of not transitioning away from oil and then having demand for oil explode and supply for oil decrease every year since 2006.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 16:34

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Meatball posted:

Even fox is saying trumps in trouble.

I think everyone is about to hang trump out to try and stump for DeSantis for president. The pivot is already under way. Trump won't take it lying down.

I don't know if there is a real pivot, but DeSantis probably realizes that this is his moment and he probably won't be a front runner in 6 years when he has been out of office 2 years. DeSantis wants to advantage himself and himself seem like the best option, but I don't know if that represents a real actual pivot among grassroots and institutional support for Trump.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 16:39

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

projecthalaxy posted:

I see. I was just asking because you put

-Get American refineries to up production

As one of your remaining levers and I know there was that announcement that the President was bringing the heads of all the gas companies to the white house to discuss how they're making such profit when Americans are suffering and I wasn't sure if there was a way he could pull the "I am no longer asking" on them

Yeah, it is part of Biden's plan, but it basically amounts to "showing people I am trying" and is not a real thing that will meaningfully bring down oil prices.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 16:40

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

haveblue posted:

Sounds like we finally hit the Peak Oil we�ve been worrying about for the last couple of decades

Unless we manage to somehow discover new sources or dramatically reduce the cost to extract oil, then we already hit peak oil sometime between 2005 and 2011 (depending on how you measure it).

Production is probably going to stay flat or decline year-to-year (barring weird one off events like Covid that plummeted use, but then shot back up) for the foreseeable future, but demand will continue to rise unless the Amish religion really starts to take off in China, India, the U.S., Nigeria, Iran, and Japan in the next 5 years.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Jun 22, 2022

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 16:47

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

I'd assume that a lot of the DeSantis/Trump base cross over and DeSantis hopes that the desire for a "fresh face" or the feeling of enough people that Trump could lose again will carry him.

It seems like DeSantis wants to run regardless of whether Trump decides to run or not, but I would put money on Trump winning the primary if they both run.

Edit: Stuff like this getting mainstream enough to sow doubts is probably DeSantis' only hope if he does run against Trump. I don't know how likely that really is to be the case among Republican primary voters.

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1539632670988292098

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Jun 22, 2022

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 16:53

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Ringo Star Get posted:

I think about the gas tax thing and see how much it really won�t help to bring prices back down to when they were in the $2.50-$3.50 range and laugh at how the US basically forced everyone to be car-dependent. Just cars to go everywhere, no busses, no trains, no bike paths or even well-designed towns or zoning. Just sticking people in homes that either you drive in a car to get somewhere or you stay at home and go nowhere.

It's basically the entire modern world. The U.S. is the most car-dependent, but not outrageously so. The distances in the U.S. compared to Europe can be worse, though.

84.1% of people in the U.S. use a personal car for almost all transportation.

Compared to:

80% in the U.K.
79% E.U. average.
83% in Korea
81% in Japan
84% in Australia

Even China is up to 71.4%.

India is basically the only major country where most people don't use a car.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 17:04

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Kramer had previously said that he would give an arm and a leg to ban abortion and that the U.S. has normalized perversion and perverted God's natural law.

The Supreme Court might drop the abortion ruling this Friday. I would keep an eye on Kramer's legs this week if you believe in fate.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1539639301322989576

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 18:04

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

The FDA makes the nicotine reduction rule for cigarettes official today with more information.

- Public comment on the rule will be begin in May 2023.
- Initial planned implementation could be early 2024.
- The current proposal being floated is a 95% minimum reduction in nicotine content for cigarettes.

Literally every major U.S. tobacco manufacturer has already stated that they will sue to prevent the rule. Altria and R.J. Reynolds already say that making cigarettes entirely unappealing to adults is a de facto ban and violates federal tobacco control law that prevents the government from fully banning tobacco products.

So, it seems unlikely that the initial implementation date of 2024 will be the actual implementation date.

quote:

The Food and Drug Administration is planning to require tobacco companies to slash the amount of nicotine in traditional cigarettes to make them less addictive and reduce the toll of smoking that claims 480,000 lives each year.

The proposal, which could take years to go into effect, would put the United States at the forefront of global antismoking efforts. Only one other nation, New Zealand, has advanced such a plan.

quote:

The headwinds are fierce. Tobacco companies have already indicated that any plan with significant reductions in nicotine would violate the law. And some conservative lawmakers might consider such a policy another example of government overreach, ammunition that could spill over into the midterm elections.

quote:

�This one rule could have the greatest impact on public health in the history of public health,� said Mitch Zeller, the recently retired F.D.A. tobacco center director. �That�s the scope and the magnitude we�re talking about here because tobacco use remains the leading cause of preventable disease and death.�

About 1,300 people die prematurely each day of smoking-related causes, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

quote:

The F.D.A. would likely have to overcome opposition from the tobacco industry, which has already begun pointing out the reasons the agency cannot upend an $80 billion market. Legal challenges could take years to resolve, and the agency may give the industry five or more years to make the changes.

quote:

A statement from the tobacco company Altria, the maker of Marlboro, offered a preview of arguments that opponents are expected to make against any rule that drastically slashes nicotine levels. �The focus should be less on taking products away from adult smokers and more on providing them a robust marketplace of reduced harm FDA-authorized smoke-free products,� the company said in a statement on Tuesday. �Today marks the start of a long-term process, which must be science-based and account for potentially serious unintended consequences.�

RAI Services, the parent company of RJ Reynolds, declined to comment on the announcement, but said: �Our belief is that tobacco harm reduction is the best way forward to reduce the health impacts of smoking.�

Altria and RAI Services have previously warned that a standard that makes tobacco unappealing to adult smokers would be considered a cigarette ban and would violate tobacco control laws.

�Both an express and a de facto ban would have precisely the same effect � both would eviscerate Congress�s expressly stated purpose �to permit the sale of tobacco products to adults,�� according to a letter in 2018 from RAI Services to the F.D.A. about an earlier proposal.

quote:

A 2018 study led by Dr. Hatsukami that followed the habits of 1,250 smokers found that participants who had been randomly assigned cigarettes with ultralow nicotine smoked less and exhibited fewer signs of dependency than those who had been given cigarettes with nicotine levels that were gradually reduced over the course of 20 weeks.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1539358919285477379

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 18:31

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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The NLRB has accused Starbucks of "extensive illegal activity" and violating labor laws with its attempt to stop unionization.

The NLRB is going to federal court to seek permission to temporarily gain control of 150 Starbucks locations and force the company to reinstate workers they fired or disciplined in retaliation for union organizing.

If you live in New York, Arizona, or Missouri, then you might briefly have a literal government-run Starbucks in your neighborhood.

https://twitter.com/noamscheiber/status/1539659043241078784

quote:

Labor Agency Seeks Broad Order Against Starbucks in Federal Court

Federal labor regulators have asked a court to force Starbucks to stop what they say is extensive illegal activity in response to a nationwide campaign in which workers at more than 150 corporate-owned stores have voted to unionize.

In a petition filed Tuesday with U.S. District Court in Buffalo, officials with the National Labor Relations Board accused the company of firing and disciplining union supporters; intimidating and threatening workers to discourage them from voting for the union; and effectively offering benefits to workers if they opposed the union.

The agency is also seeking the reinstatement of seven Buffalo-area employees who, it said, Starbucks had illegally forced out in retaliation for their union-organizing activities, and an order effectively recognizing the union in a Buffalo-area store where the union lost a vote despite strong initial support.

The agency said in its filings that the court�s intervention was necessary to stop Starbucks�s �virulent, widespread, and well-orchestrated response to employees� protected organizing efforts� and that without the proposed remedies, Starbucks would �accomplish its unlawful objective of chilling union support, both in Buffalo and nationwide.�

Reggie Borges, a Starbucks spokesman, rejected the accusations. �As we have said previously, we believe these claims are false and will be prepared to defend our case,� Mr. Borges wrote in an email.

Matt Bodie, a former lawyer for the labor board who teaches labor law at St. Louis University, said it was not unusual for the agency to seek reinstatement of ousted workers. But he said the nationwide breadth of the injunction the agency is seeking was far less common, as was the request for the court to order recognition of a union at a store where the union initially lost its election.

�It�s a big step in line with the Biden board�s commitment to a more rigorous and aggressive approach to labor law enforcement,� Mr. Bodie wrote in an email.

The labor board has already issued more than 30 formal complaints finding merit in allegations similar to the ones it cataloged in its petition on Tuesday. It typically takes months or years to adjudicate such complaints, and the board asserted that allowing the process to run its course while the company continues to break the law would �cement this chill and nullify the impact of a final remedy.�

The agency said that unlawful anti-union activity began shortly after workers in Buffalo went public with their union campaign in late August, and that it escalated after two Buffalo-area stores won union votes in December. It said Starbucks had forced out several union supporters for violating rules that the company had not previously enforced.

The company �quickly jettisoned its past practices to target union supporters more effectively,� the labor board wrote.

A federal judge recently denied the labor board�s request to reinstate pro-union workers it said Starbucks had unlawfully forced out in a similar, if narrower, case in Arizona.

The judge found that in the case of two workers, there was not evidence of retaliation for union activities, or the evidence was �inconsistent� with the accusations.

In the case of a third worker, the judge found that both sides had arguments supporting their positions and that an administrative proceeding might ultimately show that Starbucks sought to retaliate over the worker�s union activities. But the judge concluded that Starbucks would have fired the worker even absent her union involvement.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 18:40

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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FLIPADELPHIA posted:

Trump murdered a foreign head of state and bragged about it on Twitter. He also suggested we use nukes against hurricanes.

So yeah, depends on what your definition of "dangerous" is.

He murdered a foreign politician/military general, but he wasn't a head of state. The head of state in Iran is officially the President, but really it's the head of the Supreme Council.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 19:00

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Here's some interesting things about that New Hampshire poll.

- Biden is actually slightly less popular than Trump in NH, but still wins by almost the exact same margin against Trump as he did in 2020.

- Biden is within the MoE against DeSantis, though.

- Fox News viewers and right-wing radio listeners actually prefer DeSantis much more than Trump. The "normal" Republicans prefer Trump more.

- DeSantis is the only potential 2024 candidate that doesn't have over 50% disapproval among New Hampshire voters.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1539641869545512961
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1539640732423790595

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 19:09

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:

Really, the only thing notable about that is the use of Twitter rather than television. Remember Gaddafi? And we've had to worry about psychopaths nuking everybody since Nixon. The most atypical thing about Trump was that he was so boorish that people noticed the fascist elements; DeSantis would be able to operate more quietly.

Having the citizens of a country kill their leader after supporting their side rebellion/civil war is a whole lot different than bombing a foreign government official while they are in an allied country without even telling the ally.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 19:12

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Rupert Murdoch is getting divorced for the 4th time and he, his soon to be ex-wife, and his oldest son Lachlan are fighting over Fox News and the Wall Street Journal.

Which, seems a little silly considering Murdoch is 91 and they will be fighting over the trust that owns the parent companies of Fox and the WSJ in a few years.

quote:

Some people close to Mr. Murdoch were surprised to hear of his split from Ms. Hall.

I am personally shocked that a marriage between a 91-year old billionaire who married a model 30 years younger than him only lasted a few years.

https://twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1539667769821564929

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 19:24

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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BiggerBoat posted:

I wonder what the road to tobacco and nicotine legalization would look like if they hadn't existed until now and some company came out with them last week? Like, pretend, RJ Reynolds never existed but just yesterday came out with this burning smoke stick that injected tar into your lungs. Or if a black guy invented it.

I'm against most forms of prohibition and think that public education about smoking and its dangers has worked really well. Pretty sure that smoking in the US is far lower than most other countries so mostly I'm in favor of keeping on doing that as opposed to possibly creating a black market or criminal ring around it. I dunno...

...

Its so crazy. I'm 55 years old and remember people smoking on airplanes, in movie theaters, HOSPITALS, waiting tables with smoking and non smoking sections, my parents and grandparents smoking in cars with the windows rolled up and even smoking in the house. I still (stupidly) smoke but now I might as well as be a leper, and rightfully so.

I can't remember who said it, but someone said that alcohol and cigarettes would never be legal if they were invented today and you had news reports about "the new drug sweeping the nation that kills half a million people per year, is insanely addictive, is the #1 cause of auto fatalities, and can give you cancer even if you don't use it just by being in the same room as someone who does."

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 19:29

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Democrats are expected to finalize their primary reform plans at the DNC summer meeting and then have a final vote on the new rules and primary states for 2024.

The big changes are:

- Effectively ending Super Delegates by not allowing them to pledge before the convention and only allowing them to vote for whoever they want if nobody receives a majority on the first ballot.

- Increasing the number of early primary states to 5 (from 4) and rotating the first 5 states.

- Giving preference for the early 5 states to states with:

1) Ethnically diverse voting populations.
2) Accessible ballot laws (this includes favoring primaries over caucuses)
3) Urban/rural diversity.
4) General election competitiveness.
5) Higher union representation.
6) Geographical diversity (i.e. At least one state from different regions)

So far, 16 states, Puerto Rico, and Democrats Abroad (lol) have submitted letters of intent asking to be one of the first 5 primary states.

Iowa has submitted one, but is most likely already eliminated because they are insisting on holding a caucus, have low union membership, are not ethnically diverse, and are less competitive in the general election.

Michigan seems to be the favorite to be the new first primary. Nevada also seems almost assured to be keeping an early spot.

New Hampshire and South Carolina have also submitted to keep their early spots, but there seems to be a little more division about them. Iowa is the only current early state that is basically 100% eliminated already.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised so many states are competing to get in early for 2024. There is no rule that says a state that made it into the first 5 last cycle can't be in the first 5 in the next primary cycle, but unless Biden dies in the next 18 months, there is not going to be a competitive primary in 2024. Seems like it would make more sense to shoot for 2028. I feel like there will be pressure to put at least a new state or two in each cycle (even though there is no rule saying they have to swap states each cycle) and 2024 is kind of wasting it.

My vote goes to Democrats Abroad as the new first primary for comedy purposes.

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1539677126735138818

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 19:43

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Meatball posted:

New Jersey is *right there*

They applied.

They fall in the "Northeast" geographic area, which doesn't actually have a lot of competition. It's just New Jersey, New York, and New Hampshire.

New Jersey is trying hard to sell itself too:

quote:

New Jersey is leaning into its diversity and its compactness, arguing that candidates can quickly and efficiently stump throughout the state.

�That�s 50 years of doing the same thing, and when you do the same thing, you typically get the same result,� said New Jersey Democratic Party Chair LeRoy Jones. �Now, it�s time to recalibrate, change the script and New Jersey fits.�

quote:

"New Jersey has rural, it has urban, it has racial diversity, it has multiple cities with over a million people, it has the biggest farming industry for several types of agriculture, and New Jersey has been there for the United States and for the Democratic party throughout history. It's New Jersey's time."

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 19:58

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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World Famous W posted:

give alabama one of the first primary status so I can go and watch the circus firsthand

No other reason but its a good one

They didn't apply.

Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas are competing for the Southeast region.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 20:25

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Solkanar512 posted:

Maybe someone will finally pay some loving attention to Washington State.

They submitted for the "West" region.

Colorado, Nevada, Washington, and Nebraska are in the running for that slot.

This is the full list of applicants. The final decisions for each region will be made on July 8th and 9th.

quote:

Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, Washington, Puerto Rico, and Democrats Abroad.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Jun 22, 2022

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 20:31

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Colorado should be in the first 5 for sure. We're a trifecta blue state in the middle of a sea of red.

Does Colorado or Washington have better regional fair food that is disgusting, but people have to pretend to like because locals insist it is actually great?

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 20:44

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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World Famous W posted:

all fair food is good and to pretend otherwise marks you as a traitor of the working class

Even "Salad on a Stick"?

Or deep fried bubble gum?

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 20:57

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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DeeplyConcerned posted:

so I can give unlimited amounts of cash to a politician and that counts as speech. but not giving money to someone is not speech? so the state could theoretically force me to sign a pledge not to boycott the Trump merchandise store, and that would not be a curtailment of my free-speech rights? Maybe I should dig a little bit deeper, there must be some underlying bit of logic I'm missing here.

It's part of an employment contract for state contractors. They aren't ruling that boycotting itself is not free speech, they are arguing that it is something they can write into an employment contract for vendors and contractors and it isn't a free speech violation because the state has many other behavior and character clauses built into their contracts.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2022 21:12

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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I'm confused about what Kuwaiti citizen and President of the international swimming association Husain Al-Musallam's relationship is with the Democratic party and why you think he is writing the party platform.

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 00:01

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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Civilized Fishbot posted:

Trump himself was also a "nobody" in the political sense. No one would ever have considered him to be on the "GOP bench" before 2015.

He had run for President before, was a presumed front-runner in 1996 before he bowed out, and a pop culture/media figure for 4 decades who spent the last 5 years becoming a Republican celebrity by questioning Obama's birth certificate. Mitt Romney asked for his endorsement and he was invited to speak at the 2012 RNC.

He was only a political nobody in the "Ronald Reagan? The actor?!?" sense.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Jun 23, 2022

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 01:12

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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The gas tax holiday is bad policy and it is a good thing that Republicans are cynically opposed to it now because they don't want gas prices to go down and Democrats don't want to lower taxes or defund the federal highway fund.

- The last few times it has been done, about 30 to 35% of the benefit was kept by the gas retailers and oil companies.
- It would only be about a 14 cents per gallon reduction in retail prices if that trend held.
- Congress is too dysfunctional to find a new way to raise money and they will absolutely just let a crisis brew to restore funding at the last second and cause a lot of damage for no reason.

If you desperately need the retail price of gas to go as low as possible, regardless of costs or size of the reduction, and don't care about anything else, then it makes sense.

Honestly, I doubt Biden even really wants to do it. He was opposed to it in 2011 and this seems like another one of his "try something very visible to show than I am working on it, but I know it won't do anything" political moves, like calling the oil companies in to scold them.

There isn't much of anything he can do to single-handedly reduce the global price of oil, short of converting half the world's population to Amish, but he doesn't want to look like he isn't trying or just admit that there is nothing to be done for political reasons. So, they have decided his best option is to have a parade of highly visible actions that don't do anything because they assume it is the least bad option politically. They probably aren't wrong. Jimmy Carter destroyed his presidency by being honest and giving a televised address where he told Americans that there was nothing they could do about oil prices in the short term and they just had to try and manage it the best they could until it passes.

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 01:52

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 13:44

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

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FlamingLiberal posted:

Reagan almost got the nomination in 1976 over Gerald Ford as well. He was considered a major GOP figure going back into the '50s and then into the '60s when he was Governor of CA and cracking down on the Black Panthers and student protesters.

I have also never heard about Trump supposedly being a major frontrunner in 1996. It doesn't really matter anyway because he didn't actually launch a campaign.

Trump actually first floated his Presidential run in 1988 and had been active in politics since then.

If you want to see a disturbing video of Oprah talking to a much more coherent Trump in 1988 that is saying the same things as 2016 Trump, but couching the racism better in "universal" language, then watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jun 23, 2022

# ¿ Jun 23, 2022 02:48

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Summer 2022: You can't change the crisis settings.

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