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Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Vahakyla posted:

Well the cops lied about rifles and shields, too. It wasn't just "oh we only had pistols". They had rifles.

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/20/uvalde-police-shooting-response-records/



It is my honest hope that if there is one good thing to come about from this tragedy, it's that gun control advocates are able to use the police's lack of a response to the crisis to ram through some form of gun control, because we know for a fact that the "A good guy with a gun" line we kept getting fed is just a load of BS. 5 officers in that image, and apparently that was too few to even try bringing down the "bad guy with a gun".

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Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Somehow youtube recced me a 30 minute long scene from some network cop show. Specifically a graphic 30 minute scene of a school shooting. With realistic depictions of dying kids, not network style "pow" *falls over dead*

Prolly the only on-screen violence that has ever phased me and more importantly, where the gently caress are we at that this was made? Christ on a cracker.

Focused on hero cops charging through the corridors rescuing kids and taking down the shooter, which, lol.

Is this one of those "cognitive disconnect" things like where people were posting pictures of bare store shelves from the start of the pandemic saying "This is what stores would look like under Communism" and being very confuses when people posted that's literally stores under Capitalism at that time?

"This is what mass shootings would look like if police were defunded!" "That's literally what happened a month ago."?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



haveblue posted:

That’s what I meant- I don’t know if DeSantis would accept VP, but I am absolutely sure that Trump will not accept VP under any circumstances.

The only way I can see Trump accepting the VP slot is if he tries to steal the 2028 election from both candidates as VP. "I'm going to do what Mike Pence was too weak to do" and all that.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Kramer had previously said that he would give an arm and a leg to ban abortion and that the U.S. has normalized perversion and perverted God's natural law.

The Supreme Court might drop the abortion ruling this Friday. I would keep an eye on Kramer's legs this week if you believe in fate.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1539639301322989576

How typical, they promise you an arm and just deliver a hand.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Have Some Flowers! posted:

Probably sooner than we think. Here's the green light to reactionary activists to bring the cases forward:

https://twitter.com/fordm/status/1540338064324698112?s=20&t=icRhPAD_I3R1HoHqrTDYIg

Cool, cool, just immediately roll everything back to the... what... 1950's, 1960's? Tell me again why the SC hasn't been expanded yet?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



And just to clarify, but that means a full 1/3rd of the Supreme Court lied under oath, right? I know there's no actual repercussions for doing that, I'm just wanting to confirm that the SC is just a puppetshow of the Republican extremists at this point.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Cimber posted:

I wonder though if there is a silver lining. Abortion was pretty much the thing that held a lot of the various conservative groups together. With that gone are we now going to see the high water mark of modern American Conservatism? Will the big tent republicans start fracturing?

If anything, this will galvanize them. Remember that after this decision leaked, there were a few protests that the DEMOCRATS quashed. They have carte blanche from both parties to strip away as many rights as they can.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



So what's people's guesses on what the GOP's messaging about literally anything the Democrats do now, after spending the past two months screaming about ignoring the message and shooting the messenger?

"Clearly this is just the Democrats playing politics, after all, they had two whole months warning that this was coming, and we would have gladly enshrined Roe v Wade into federal law if they asked"?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Velocity Raptor posted:

The people who were watching have only seen that the Dems were lying to them, or at least didn't care. So the best thing the GOP can do is stay quiet, lest they risk people turning their anger from the ineffective self-proclaimed protectors to those actually making the bad things happen.

Right, but considering this is the party that has MTG, Boebert and Cruz and all three seem to be incapable of shutting up...

I'm guessing MTG is probably going to try to literally laugh in Democrates faces.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Lemming posted:

I would love to work together with the Democrats, the problem is specifically that the Democratic establishment is not interested in working with the people who want to protect abortion rights. You can't blame the activists for the Democratic party being intransigent

I honestly think the only way progressives have a legitimate shot at actually making change is to splinter off from the Democrats and either run as independents or form a new party, because the Democratic party has shown time and time again that if they have to choose between a progressive or someone who's just running as a Democrat because they're in a blue state, they'll throw everything they have behind the Republican.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Susan Collins is giving an interview on CNN and said she has "been crying" because she was "blindsided" by this decision and doesn't understand how not only one nominee could lie to her, but three different nominees all lied to her.

She said she knew they were all conservative, but that being conservative means being cautious, respecting tradition, and not making radical changes. She also says that they all looked her in the eyes and she felt they were honest men and women of integrity and doesn't know what happened.

She says she "understands" if some people lose confidence in the Supreme Court, because she has lost some confidence, but she will spend all day trying to figure out how this happened.

:kiddo:

Get hosed Collins, you knew exactly what was going to happen. Unless you're going to call for removing them from the bench or expanding the court, you're not feeling sorry at all.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Reviving the Iran nuclear deal seems to have gotten 98% of the way there and has been stuck on the last 2% for several months. That last 2% might end up killing the entire effort to revive it.

The three main things they can't resolve:

1) Russia pulled out of its role to take excess enriched uranium from Iran and no other country is equipped to store or handle it right now. Russia says they won't rejoin unless all European, Asian, and American sanctions on it for the invasion of Ukraine are lifted.

2) Iran says they won't sign back on unless the U.S. takes the Iranian Revolutionary Guard off of the terrorism blacklist and allows them to use American financial institutions. The U.S. says that wasn't part of the original 2015 deal and they will only agree if Iran offers an equivalent concession.

3) Iran wants a guarantee that the U.S. won't pull out again like Trump did, but the U.S. has no way of guaranteeing 100% that a future President won't do it. Neither the U.S. nor Iran insisted on this in the 2015 deal because nobody thought anyone would actually do it.

Honestly, it's hard to blame Iran for wanting points 2 and 3, and considering that the US was the one that unilaterally broke the agreement Iran had been faithfully abiding by and is now asking Iran for an equivilant concession for point 2... yeah, I find it hard to blame Iran for sticking to their guns and wanting a better deal and a guarantee on the deal considering the US hosed them over last time.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



FizFashizzle posted:

McConnell might realize that time is no longer on his side.

Impossible. Humans have never recorded a turtle dying of old age (as far as I can find, anyways).

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Rigel posted:

Yeah, I did not have the energy or the desire to break it down, but this really is not a big deal. These are just circuit court judges, they don't decide nationally important things. The only reason to not do the deal is if you want to say "gently caress your friend and gently caress you Mitch, I don't like you, so I'm going to be an rear end in a top hat. You want to delay some of our circuit court judges too? Fine"

This is the part that has me shaking my head. Mitch has shown that he will gleefully gently caress the Dems with a pineapple turned sideways every chance he gets, so why do any favors for him? It's not like he's going to have a magical change of heart after the past 8 to 12 years of ignoring decorum and playing Calvinball with the judicial system appointments.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

In this situation, Mitch is actually giving something up now for the promise of something later. And, to fulfill that promise, Mitch needs either a Senate majority or for a majority of a Democratic judiciary committee to go along with it before Biden could even be obligated to fulfill his end.

In a completely neutral scenario, Mitch would be the one taking a big risk. But, we all know that the Dems aren't coordinated or ruthless enough to actually pull that and renege on the deal. So, it's not really much of a risk for him at all.

Oh, okay, I thought it was another case of "Mitch is getting what he wants now, and will TOTALLY not pull the football away this time guys". The best case I could see is if Biden said "Okay, I'll add your judicial appointee to the list. Right as soon as it's cleared of all these other appointees. Guess you should look into fast tracking that, huh?". Hopefully that is what happened and not "Mitch continues to play Dems because every Dem in power lacks basic pattern recognition skills".

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:


87% chance for Republicans to take the House.

Most likely scenario is ~237 seats for Republicans (net of +27)

Senate is a toss up (53% chance for Republican control).

Most likely scenarios are 50/50 split (net change of 0) or 53 Republican seats (net change of +3)

*Insert obvious disclaimers about how there isn't a ton of polling out for specific races and there are still 4 months, etc. etc.*

87% chance of success means that the Dems have a 13% chance of pulling out a Hail Mary. Hopefully Joe's Executive Orders will help sway things a bit, now that he's remembered that he can, in fact, actually do something.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



FlamingLiberal posted:

Well Democracy had a good run I guess

https://twitter.com/scotusblog/status/1542521353344913417?s=21&t=qesPTpaIeqESaGXZuuteGA

I can’t imagine them taking this up is going to end well for this country

Cool, cool, so how long until we see the "answer a question with vague wording correctly, where the answer is up to the discretion of the person giving the test who also happens to be holding a paper bag up next to you" types of "requirements" again?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Herstory Begins Now posted:

1) This would be wildly premature to kick off a constitutional crisis and 2) if they give up the appearance of neutrality now then they lose the ability to lend legitimacy to a seizure of power later, assuming for the purposes of this hypothetical that that is indeed their motivation.

unless the goal was to kick off the crisis over the midterms, but again, why take the risk when they already believe that they will win those without cheating

Why do you think they care about maintaining appearances of neutrality now? They're in lifetime appointed seats, and the Democrat party has shown that they keep wanting to follow the "rules" that Republicans have been playing Calvinball with for over a decade, and the Supreme Court seems to have final say on. This is the Republicans showing they've won the game at this point, because Democrats are refusing to flip the table.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



OAquinas posted:

We've already lost the game. McConnell outplayed us all. Gotta say, nice work end-running the government via the courts.

The game isn't over, the Democrats do have options (Like, say, expanding the Supreme Court) but because they refuse to do anything because "Decorum" and "Precedent", it's effectively over, and now it's just a matter of sitting through the endgame. Democracy dies because of inertia.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



cat botherer posted:

They're seizing the power right now, its just the boring way of doing it with courts instead of insane idiots dressed up as vikings. The ability of the feds to regulate state voting laws is gone, etc.

No empire ever pulls out of these terminal declines.

Yeah, this. I'm honestly curious how people are so optimistic about things working out when A) The Supreme Court is actively making it possible for the next Republican to walk into office (every Republican-led state will just be electoral votes for the Republican candidate once states are allowed free reign over their federal votes), B) The next Republican VP will be a boot-licking toady with no moral values, and C) Democrats have shown they are willing to do nothing except cry out for someone to do something while this happens. After the election is stolen? People protest, cops break out the teargas and beat protestors, and the US becomes a Banana Republic. All nice and legally, too.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Assuming that things stay their current course and the SC sets the groundwork for the GOP to steal the next election without even trying, what's the best-case scenario in that event? That the United States just... become independent States around what remains of the US? I'm talking absolutely best-case scenario, not what is most likely to happen.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



OAquinas posted:

Manchin is a hard no, Sinema is...basically on bath salts and crack all the time, who the gently caress knows.
And Leahy is out for the season due to pulling an Old and breaking his hip.

Any one of those would kill filibuster reform. I am curious to see how far they go for the performative effort though.

Presumably, the Republican senators that did the whole "Oh mah stars and garters! Those wily Supreme Court nominees hoodwinked us. I am shocked and appaled, appaled I say" song and dance after three SC Justices lied under oath may be able to be convinced to vote for carving a filibuster exception and codifying Roe V Wa... oh who am I kidding

Edit:

Herstory Begins Now posted:

?? Protests and riots took place all over the country after the ruling.

People protested and the Democrats chose to expand protections for Justices over people's rights to peacefully assemble.

Randalor fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jun 30, 2022

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Mendrian posted:

Even if the Dems somehow summoned up the requisite 60 senators to form a majority, Sinema and Manchin would still be there, and with the added senators almost certainly several more would be weird gloryhounds so the new angle would just be, 'well we have 60 votes but we just don't have a caucus on this so we need more senators' and then the line becomes we need like 67 senators to get anything accomplished and I don't even know if that's mathematically possible before you consider things like voter disenfranchisement or the GOP just straight up stealing elections.

Don't they just need 51 to make carveouts in the filibuster?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Criss-cross posted:

I assume some staffers actually write these opinions, not the judges themselves.

Who's ultimately in charge of hiring their staffers, and why do you insist on giving them for benefit of the doubt?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



FlamingLiberal posted:

I don’t believe Hillary is going to run. The only people who have been proposing it as a possibility are random Republican commentators.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the only time anyone has even mentioned the possibility of her running were "Former Hillary Campaign Staffers" (who both went on to work for right-wing media outlets), when directly asked she straight up said she wasn't planning on running, and I can't double check because I hate Twitter, but hasn't she been fairly quiet on anything political since she lost in 2016, usually only getting political when people ask her about specific subjects?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The hilarious thing is that in his memoirs, John Boehner says the Grand Bargain destroyed all his trust in Obama because Obama had offered something too good not to take, but he knew he couldn't take the deal and Boehner no longer considered him an honest broker because he set him up to fail.

So, literally everyone involved in the grand bargain thinks the other side proposed it as a trick to sucker each other and doesn't want to take credit for it.

So it's Obama's fault that other senators came up with a bipartisan agreement that was better than the secret agreement Obama and Boehner were working on? Am I reading that right?

Edit:

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Garland has apparently issued a memo saying that the DOJ aren't to make any indictments or announcements of new investigations into "declared candidates for president or vice president, a presidential campaign or a senior presidential campaign member or adviser" without explicit written approval from the Attorney General because of a policy of not making any prosecutions or announcements that might influence the election.

So is this Garland just admitting the DOJ won't investigate Trump because Trump has all but said he's running for president again in 2024, or will common sense prevail and they'll actually investigate the actual attempt at an insurrection that happened on Jan 6th?

Randalor fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Jul 19, 2022

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Civilized Fishbot posted:

It's probably better that the first woman president is Biden's bland liberal VP than Trump's frothing reactionary VP.

For all of Pence's many, MANY faults, could you just imagine if the timeline were a year or two later and MTG or Boebert were known enough to be on Trump's radar when he was shopping for a VP? At least Pence put up token resistance to Trump's Coup plan (he's still a horrible monster and I hope this comes off as damning with faint praise)

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



-Blackadder- posted:

No doubt all those R's that voted "Nay" have a good explanation for their decision. All the luck to them in fitting that explanation into a sound byte while they're getting drilled with "Republicans don't think you should be allowed to buy condoms", over and over in their midterm races.

"States Rights". That's all they need to say for their chud base.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Film it as a documentary/Face Off sequel and it would unironically be his best movie since Con Air.

Willy's Wonderland strongly disagrees with that statement (it's not a good movie, but it is enjoyably dumb and gleefully leans into the stupidity of the whole thing).

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

She's back in the spotlight and enjoying it.

She just assembled a group of reporters and said that, even though all of the provisions (except for the carried interest elimination) are all things she said she would support previously, that she is waiting to see "what final bill comes out of the parliamentarian process" and then she is going to "personally read the whole bill" and decide. And told everyone to "stay tuned," but she had no further comments at this time.

I see two outcomes (well, okay, three, but "The bill fails" is an assumed default). Either she thinks her voters are dumb enough that they'll just remember the last thing she did and votes for it as a Hail Mary, or the other democrats managed to work some backroom deals to get at least one R to splinter off and agree to vote for it.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



So once she's voted out of office, what are people thinking Sinema's post-senator career will be? Token "liberal" on various Fox News shows agreeing with everything the host says, or just going straight to OANN and going full avatar of chaos?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Susan Collins says she will be "forced" to oppose gay marriage if Democrats pass the reconciliation bill next week.

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1552740956738359296

Oh no. Susan Collins is enabling the removal of rights from more people. What a sudden surprise. If only we had some warning that she might do this like voting for judges that lie under oath.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



"We love our troops! What, help ones that got sick? Hell no". How many of the senators that voted no are up for re-election in a few months? I thought now would be the time they would be caring about optics.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Dubar posted:

GOP voters oppose helping people less fortunate than them and support petty revenge so theres really no downside

How many veterans are also R voters? You may be able to discourage them from voting by saying "Hey, you know how you can't afford your cancer treatment? This fucker is why. He wants you to die."

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Sephyr posted:

They watched Trump poo poo all over darling media veteran John McCain for years and only loved him more for it. They don't give a toss.

The GOP could punch them in the mouth all day and they'd just say "It's ok, they were aiming for a liberal they saw behind me, I'm sure! I had too many teeth anyway."

Jaxyon posted:

Trump literally called them losers and saluted a NK general.

Them being mad about minorities is still more important to them.

When was the last time something affecting VA funding came up that actually failed (rather than just Dems going "oh, we probably don't have enough votes? Okay, we won't vote on it")? This instance direct affects them, and if there's one thing that's been shown to piss Rs off, it's telling one "This directly affects you in a negative way" (or making them think something does). I'm not saying it'll cause all of the veterans to not vote, but considering how close some elections have been, even discouraging a dozen or two across the country from voting this particular election can tip some scales, and the Democrats can use all the help they can get right now.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Cpt_Obvious posted:

General question to the thread:

Why do you believe that Sinema does the things she does? What is her motivation?

Because she either has an escape plan to jump ship to a board of directors for one or more of the corporations that donate to her, she's planning on doing the right-wing media circuit as a token Democrat (that's my bet just because she seems to like attention almost as much as Manchin but without a political future), or she's jumping ship to the Republicans/worked out some deal with Mitch early on where she backstabs the Democrats for some reward when she's out of office.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



evilweasel posted:

i disagree because i think there's people who will take pleading the 5th as an admission

it's not going to like drop his support to 30% but every little bit helps - even if it doesn't change a vote it may change enthusiasm

There's something else that people are overlooking, is that pleading the 5th makes Donald look weak. I can easily see MTG or Gaetz running in 2024 (I don't know if they legally can, I just mean hypothetically) and hounding him on that. "Hey Donny boy, I thought you said only the guilty pled the 5th. What are you hiding?" They're loyal to Trump as of a few days ago, but there's a lot of blood in the water now.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



William Bear posted:

I love the evolution of Republican talking points about the IRS hiring funds in the Inflation Reduction Act. It's gone from the truth, which is that it's funds for hiring 87k IRS employees of all kinds, including for replacing existing employees as they retire, to:

1. All 87k will be enforcing tax law and auditing.
2. All 87k will be auditing middle-class Americans.
3. All 87k will have guns.

https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1557710812185231361

Why are you infringing on people's 2nd Amendment Rights, MTG? How are those IRS agents supposed to protect themselves from 50,000 wild feral hogs?

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Kalli posted:

It's a third generational reference to this extremely memed out tweet:

Basically. Though considering people are now taking literal shots at the FBI, I'm leaning towards meaning this one:

Crain posted:

Calling the GOP hogs is a new one.

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Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



Civilized Fishbot posted:

This is what Olpainless is referencing, personally I think it's ludicrous.

https://twitter.com/_Anunnery/status/1158576865453334528

Huh. That feels like a little bit of a stretch, but moreso because of the lack of a 14 in the original post, and usually when they have one set of numbers, they have the other one too.

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