Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

A big flaming stink posted:

Honestly incredible. It's not a surprise to me that Biden considers politics be nothing more than a game played with people's lives, but I'm still shocked at how loving bad he is at playing the game.

eh you're confusing the win conditions of politics with getting stuff done. you win in politics by getting elected to progressively higher office

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
also the deer was wearing glasses that ended up on his passenger seat

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
he was reading an article on some far right news site for apparently a couple minutes before and after hitting the guy, iirc

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
yeah certainly seems like stupid timing, but bringing up cop salaries in major cities to counter her point is actually the exact dynamic that small towns face with policing. Cities pay more, far more, often like 2-3x more than being a cop in some small town so the only people left taking small town policing jobs are the people who some how are too obviously poo poo to get hired by a metro PD. Like all those utterly poo poo minneapolis, seattle, philly, la, nyc cops that come to mind? of the national hiring pool of cops, those are the cream of the crop. The small towns are then getting final pick after every area that can pay more than them has had their pick.

Personally I find paying police more pretty distasteful currently, but that metro vs small town dynamic loving up hiring to the extent that it basically guarantees that small towns have by far the worst cops is very much a known thing wrt activist attempts to make policing be less bad

There's a reason why you can put literally any words after 'small town police did' and it is believable. No one anywhere expects anything other than huge incompetence and the worst of american policing from small town police forces. Maybe you get lucky and the department has one or two people who, for whatever reason, are settled in the area and don't want to relocate and are okay with the pay? well now they've quit or become poo poo themselves because of their unending stream of extremely poo poo coworkers.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Jun 23, 2022

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Lemming posted:

I would love to work together with the Democrats, the problem is specifically that the Democratic establishment is not interested in working with the people who want to protect abortion rights. You can't blame the activists for the Democratic party being intransigent

u dont have to work with democrats u can work against conservatives, hth

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Lemming posted:

No poo poo. The drastic thing that needs to happen is for Democrats to actually support pro-choice candidates who will protect and codify abortion rights. Pointing out that the Democratic establishment isn't interested in doing this is just recognizing the reality of the situation. There is nothing any of us can actually do to stop it, because the Democratic establishment will not let that happen. The things we can focus on that will actually help in the short term is helping organizations that will provide aid to women to travel and get safe abortions where they can. Voting for the Democrats who will do nothing (and to be clear, this is not all Democrats. The problem is that, like with Cuellar, the establishment will step in and stop anyone who is sincerely interested in taking action on the situation) will not help

i mean sure, yeah, but also i don't think one single dem is offsetting the entire gop

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
yelling about what certain individual dems are doing is kinda secondary to the core rot that is 100,000,000 conservative voters actively trying to enforce their will on the country

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
As far as I'm aware this forum is primarily not democrats and is almost completely people entirely disbelieving of the possibility dems even being fixable. I don't know why people who I know know better are fixated on getting water out of that stone.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
yeah scotus was saying it was 'settled law' right up until they weren't

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Orthanc6 posted:

I mean you might be right but the forum is literally labelled "Debate and Discussion" and I imagine for a bunch of people here the idea is to discuss things to find solutions. Cause the alternatives are sticking our heads in the sand, or violence, neither of which are good. Defeatism and doomerism will constantly rear their heads because yeah, things suck and not everyone is in the mental state to resist despair. But those of us that can need to keep talking.

Yeah I'm objecting particularly to the idea that there is nothing but 'head in sand or violence'

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

what are those signs that they're holding?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Josef bugman posted:

Then split. The country, long united, must divide in this instance. If you cannot have anything in common with people then part from them.

This is beyond useless right now, dude

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Pollyanna posted:

We have to realize that this can happen and will if nothing is done about it. You can’t just bury your head in the sand and claim that everyone’s going to get along forever. People are angry, upset, and looking for someone to blame.

We are living, right now, in that-won’t-happen.

I'm saying that a brit coming in here and saying 'well why don't you guys just split your country up' is loving stupid and beyond useless.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Pollyanna posted:

It’s not going to accomplish anything but we can’t pretend it can’t happen, is all I’m saying.

considering that the civil war happened, I don't think anyone anywhere is in doubt that it is a possibility

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Is there anything about Roe in the "Spicy Lingerie Warehouse" newsletter?

the spicy lingerie industry would have a lot of interest in abortion rights, I would think

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
I struggle to imagine an outcome to the left rolling over and letting conservatives win that results in anything good. both at home and abroad

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Yinlock posted:

Well Democrats have helpfully provided a useful example of what would happen if the left did so.

I don't think we've even scratched the surface of how bad things can get.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Majorian posted:

A lot of folks are taking direct action as we speak! It's not all about protests, after all. The labor movement is back with a vengeance. Workplaces are unionizing like gangbusters, workers are refusing to go back to work in the wake of the pandemic, and left-wing groups are preparing funds and supplies for strikes. The American economy is already in a tight spot, and it hypothetically wouldn't take much disruption of commerce in a few strategic areas to grind it to a halt, if strikers are organized, disciplined, and well-supplied. Hypothetically, of course. I'm not saying it's a sure-fire path to luxury space communism or whatever, and it's guaranteed to be a tough struggle, but hey, it's got a better chance of working than electoralism at this point IMO.

??



We're at like 2-4% of the strikes and work stoppages that we were in the 1960s and 1970s and before. scale of people involved is also hugely down as is total % of people in unions. (1960s and 70s were seeing ~300-400 strikes per year, last decade has averaged about 15 per year. https://www.bls.gov/web/wkstp/annual-listing.htm

Like yeah there's some promising news about unions getting their first toeholds lately, but american labor is in an exceedingly rough spot by pretty much any analysis.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Gripweed posted:

Not in the immediate future. But if you can imagine anything good happening in the immediate future by voting for the Democratic party then I don't think you have a good grasp on American politics.

where have i said anything even remotely like this?

Gripweed posted:

The labor movement is growing, there is genuine potential for labor to become a significant power in American politics again. That is one of the few potential sources for positive political change.

I'm optimistic about its current trajectory in spite of the bleak charts and numbers, but how is the labor movement going to survive total republican control?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Gripweed posted:

In response to people saying we need to stop voting for Democrats, you said that would lead to nothing good. So the logical inference is that you believed voting for Democrats could lead to something good.

No, I think people are deluding themselves about what full right wing control of this country looks like. The most charitable thing I'll generally say about dems is that they're maybe a speedbump to some of the worst things that the right wants to do. Personally I don't care who anyone does or does not vote or agitate for.

Gripweed posted:

It survived the Lochner era, it survived when unions were literally illegal. Read up on your labor history, times have been much, much worse for labor than they are now.

Yes it has survived literally being massacred. However 1) I think there's no guarantee it survives literal massacres again and 2) I would prefer the far right not get to do what they want to do the left, which is a lot worse than merely make things illegal. Just a week ago people in this thread were saying that leftist organization has been impossible to gain traction with because police killings and other violence were so disruptive and discouraging. Currently they're targeted primarily by local cops and far right 'vigilantes' or militia idiots how is that going to work when it's the full might of the federal government?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

theCalamity posted:

I don’t think people are deluding themselves at all. They just don’t want to support the Democrats who have shown themselves to be ineffectual time and time again. The democrats are literally in control of Congress and the White House but can’t pass abortion rights, voting rights, healthcare reform, LGBT civil rights, and so on. The promises of 2020 election have been broken.

This really has nothing at all to do with what I'm talking about? I legit do not care about the dems or who people vote for. The dems are exactly what they are and have been for a long time and honestly I'm perplexed that people are still tricking themselves into seeing whatever they want to see there. I really do not get where peoples' idea that a government fully controlled by the right is going to give the left space to breathe. Figuratively or literally. That has literally nothing to do with the dems and no one has brought up anything tangible to explain how the left is going to exist in a world that the right wing fully controls. I agree that the dems are whatever, but they have zero bearing on what the right will do.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Majorian posted:

It helps that Capital is very much on their side and very much not on ours. The billionaire class is only too happy to bankroll insurgent right-wing candidates and movements because hey, shockingly they always seem to benefit from it. But also, the broader left (let's say that's everyone to the left of the Dem mainstream) does reliably turn out in elections to vote blue no matter who. See this Pew study, and of course, read "liberal" as "left-wing," because our political media is really stupid and loves to treat those labels as synonyms. The groups that don't reliably turn out for the Dems tend to be working-class people of color.

that article is really not make the case that you're suggesting it does

quote:

Black voters form the core of the Democratic Party base. They cast ballots for Democrats in greater proportions than pretty much any other demographic group. Without the massive backing of Black voters, the last three Democratic nominees (Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) would not have made it to the general election.

Yet, recent polling suggests the advantage Democrats have had with Black voters may be slipping, at least a little bit. This follows the 2020 election in which Biden won Black voters by less than 80 points -- the weakest margin for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996 (if your baseline is the network exit polls).

A few weeks ago, Gallup released results comparing Biden's approval rating since October with the first six months of his administration. Much attention has been paid to his 20-plus-point drops with young adults and Hispanics.

Far less noted was that Biden's approval rating among Black adults stood at a mere 67%. That was down 20 points, from 87% at the beginning of his presidency, which was fairly in line with the percentage of Black voters who backed him in 2020.
To put this in context, Obama's approval rating with Black adults never dropped below 75% in any individual Gallup poll. Averaged across time, it almost always stayed safely above 80%.

Perhaps, it was the fact that Biden's approval rating with Black adults remains high when compared with other groups that the 20-point decline didn't get much notice. Regardless, the Gallup poll is hardly alone.

Our most recent CNN/SSRS poll on the subject found Biden's approval with Black adults was 69%. It stood at 74% with Black voters. A recent Quinnipiac University poll put Biden's approval rating with Black adults at 64%. A Pew Research Center poll last month had him at 72% among Black voters.

All these polls showed Biden losing a disproportionate amount of support from Black adults (and voters).

It's disproportionate mostly because it is so high. You're talking about by far the most solidly democratic constituency in the country and in 2020 much of the rise in black support of non-dem candidates was the result of non-partisan gotv efforts. black turnout as a whole was significantly up and efforts were not targeted towards any specific party and previously non-voters were less uniformly on one side than long-time regular voters.

Like he's less popular, but that framing you used is wilfully ignoring the bigger picture. Black voters are the core dem constituency more than anything else.



Chart ends in 2017, but you're looking at about a 1% change from 2016 to 2020. I am also deeply skeptical that republicans are going to succesfully convert a lot of voters as long as they're going full speed into their turner diary fantasy poo poo.

Zero_Grade posted:

The best way I've seen it put is essentially 'The Troubles, but American sized', which really sums it up succinctly.

Anyone who doesn't find that possibility terrifying is an idiot and is deluding themselves.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Jun 25, 2022

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Fister Roboto posted:

But under your definition, them losing their election is bad for us! We have to vote for them no matter what! Unless you're suggesting that we should withhold our votes if they're not satisfactory?

personally i think people should not vote for lovely candidates and should vote for candidates that are neutral-good

I would also question who tf was voting for lovely candidates before this? Is that a thing people here do?

Bar Ran Dun posted:

They need to pack the court and almost certainly can’t.

yeah

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Fister Roboto posted:

I'm just flabbergasted that someone here thinks that the whole point of mass demonstrations is to get people to vote. Guess what: if you've got a mass of people, you already have enough people to vote!

It pretty unambiguously is about voting at a certain point. More precisely it's about taking, holding, and ultimately using political power, which generally requires elections and candidates and voting whether we're talking about present day or after some hypothetical left wing revolution. You'd still going to be voting then, too. Transforming street-movements into political power has historically been one of the big sticking points for aspiring political factions. Left wing groups in particular really struggle here for reasons ranging from the green party's desire to not deal with national politics (a desire that led to multiple splits), to anarchists eschewing the level of organization necessary for their goals. Conversely a lot of marxists feel that nothing will change by voting... so they tend to not convert their movements into political power very effectively, at least in the last couple decades.

Like getting abortion rights codified in law and abortions themselves performed by licensed, state regulated providers is fundamentally a political goal in terms of how it can be accomplished. For better or for worse, mutual aid and unions will do basically nothing to get the country legal, regulated abortions. (with a small caveat here that unions can push for medically necessary travel compensation as a key part health care bargaining, which would be unambiguously good, but also that only can cover the ~10% of americans that are in unions and additionally it is still at the whim of national laws concerning abortion).

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Panzeh posted:

It's very much a weird politics of pure vibes. If you get yourself hopped up on internet-sponsored anger, it will overcome any problem, obviously.

1. Stop voting

2. Dems end up limited more strictly to enclaves, or maybe not, whatever, they fail

???

4. glorious communist party rules the USA wooooo

Which is, even if you read how Lenin won, not even close to how things went down, or really any of the others.

In historical terms it's closer to the german outcome than the russian outcome.

A big flaming stink posted:

leftists, at least ones who voted for bernie, voted for hillary in huge loving numbers, though.

This is really something lol. how tf are leftism and voting for hillary rodham clinton compatible

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:48 on Jun 26, 2022

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Civilized Fishbot posted:

Could it correspond to a greater sense of precarity? "Sure, my situation is good now, but that could change at any moment, so I would describe the economy overall as quite bad."

This would be my guess. That said, that's been the case for a long time, but so many businesses and livelihoods imploded in the last 5 years that I wouldn't be surprised if that precarity is felt much, much more strongly.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
Yeah lowkey the coverup and witness intimidation is a really loving big deal and it shines an interesting light on the recent direction the doj investigation has taken.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

u know that this is the largest doj investigation in the history of the us right

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Tatsuta Age posted:

got it, sorry

yeah I remember the Mueller report being a really big deal too

And how did trump do in 2020?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Accubitus posted:

I'm not sure I would attribute any outcome of 2020, regardless of framing, to Mueller's investigation. It seems like COVID, for example, was probably a much bigger motivator of outcome. I don't remember any discussion about Mueller at all during 2020; I don't think it was very front-of-mind for people heading into the voting booth.

I'm suggesting that things do matter to trump and am using the fact that he couldn't win an election against the most boring, uninspiring candidate the dems have ever run as evidence.

If trump was immune to consequences, he would be president right now. Hell, there wouldn't be hearings right now about how he choked a secret service driver.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Jaxyon posted:

You know he's done all sorts of poo poo but didn't see any consequences and nearly got a 2nd term, right?

Mueller report indicted dozens of people. Most people, even on this board, remember it as a nothingburger.

Yeah, dozens. This is around 900 currently and doj keeps seizing all the electronics of the main people trump was planning 1/6 with.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

can you post the story, it's paywalled

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Bel Shazar posted:

tl;dr "Famously anti-choice Democrat set to name fundie Republican judge to the bench"

Okay? I'd like to know what the linked article says.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
in the rare bit of good news coming from american courts

https://www.npr.org/2022/06/29/1105551227/r-kelly-sentence-30-years

r kelly got 30 years sexual exploitation of minors, racketeering, and more

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Of course this is how it was gonna go. The only thing Democrats do anymore is make drat well sure that every decrepit old gently caress gets to sit in the big chair until they die.

McConnell might be aware no matter what he does, chances are he's going to get unseated by a nazi in 24, so he's gotta get his last kicks in.

that is incredibly unlikely unless he dies or something

Blue Footed Booby posted:

Is there someone positioning to run against him?

no unless you count the generic D that will get an insane amount of money to oppose him, but no one really expects that to unseat him.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

I AM GRANDO posted:

Is he unpopular with his own voters or something? Or do you mean that he’s realized that he’s so old that he’s going to die soon?

A lot is up in the air right now with both the dems and especially the Rs kicking every single political hornet nest that they see. It's also unclear how the gop split over trump is going to resolve.

wrt mcconnel, the last one is particularly pertinent, though idk if there're really any trumpists who could unseat him.

Ghost Leviathan posted:

I'm mixing up Mitch with Manchin again, never mind.

Though also likely Biden is graciously letting Mitch inspect his wallet again.

who is challenging manchin that seems likely to win?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

FlamingLiberal posted:

Well Democracy had a good run I guess

https://twitter.com/scotusblog/status/1542521353344913417?s=21&t=qesPTpaIeqESaGXZuuteGA

I can’t imagine them taking this up is going to end well for this country

The timing on that is conspicuous and not in the direction you're suggesting.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Flying-PCP posted:

Can you explain what you mean by this a bit more? What reason do we have to think the court will uphold the current level of the federal government's ability to regulate elections?

If the court wanted to permanently enshrine republican power or some kind of electoral subjectivity they could have done that at many other points. That this comes specifically during the hearings as a significant effort to strengthen electoral institutions is, again, conspicuous. If the goal was to sneak something like that through, the best time to do that would not be at the exact moment people are most aware of trumpist threats to our elections. Additionally, idk if there's enough justices for a majority ruling of 'actually elections can be overturned by cranky state legislatures.'

I don't know what's going to happen with it, but if it's what flamingliberal thinks then they managed to somehow pick the least auspicious day for that announcement ever.

Also to come back to the original question: because courts like being relevant and respected and they tend to be obsessed with tradition and decorum. Even conservative justices.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

They are done "sneaking through" poo poo. I would think that's pretty obvious at this point.

1) This would be wildly premature to kick off a constitutional crisis and 2) if they give up the appearance of neutrality now then they lose the ability to lend legitimacy to a seizure of power later, assuming for the purposes of this hypothetical that that is indeed their motivation.

Unless the goal was to kick off the crisis over the midterms, but again, why take the risk when they already believe that they will win those without cheating? It's also a hugely more difficult battle against a hostile executive branch

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Jun 30, 2022

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Groovelord Neato posted:

Normally I'd agree it's too far but then I remember Roberts gutted the VRA with no constitutional basis after it was overwhelmingly re-upped by Congress and he, Kavanaugh, and Barrett helped steal an election.

I'm not ruling anything out and I'm no expert SCOTUS watcher, I'm just saying the timing on that really does not line up with that being their goal. I assume we'll know soon enough.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply