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The Notorious ZSB
Apr 19, 2004

I SAID WE'RE NOT GONNA BE FUCKING SUCK THIS YEAR!!!

Hey gang, a bit late, but the season hasn't technically started yet! Let's do some predictions as this wild game we love gets even more money and TV driven. Here's to the death of the NCAA oversight on major CFB, time for the minor leagues (aka the B1G and SEC while everyone else sucks their fumes as they're priced out of competition).

I will provide my feelings on the winning probability for each game (W%/L%) and then a best, expected, and worst case scenario for the team.

Virginia Tech Hokies


Man oh man, another losing season where we barely made a bowl? Fu is gone, he poo poo all over the place during his time in town and now we're truly rebuilding, but in a brand new landscape that will be way harder to return to our former glory in. That said, what a breath of fresh air Brent Pry has been. The energy (coach speak 101) has been way better from what we've gleaned on social media, the dude has worked hard to repair the relationships in the state, and I think will actually manage to recruit at a high level in a year or two once he has an on field product to show recruits. The team is low on talent, but the lovely staff before managed bowl games, and my expectations aren't much off that still. 6 wins is a minimum, but I don't think Hokie fans will be truly that hurt if the team just bottoms out, we all know what he walked into.

9/2 @ ODU (90/10) - Ah the return to the site of Fu's first major red flag. Going back to the 757 for nominal recruiting and travel cost purposes isn't bad on paper, but man oh man...I can't go as full on the "we will win easily" as I should. This program has some PTSD from that '18 game. They lost their OC right at the start of camp, and its all cast off QBs. It should be an easy paid W, but oof its hard to say with all new everything and the ghosts of Fu haunting some of the players (i know we beat them in 19 no issue, but oof).

9/10 BC (50/50) - They beat us last year p soundly, but this is usually a decent one in terms of chances. It's a rivalry game i won't be upset to leave behind with the new scheduling model next year (even though they're still on it again they wont be a guaranteed play). At least its at home, that helps.

9/17 Wofford (100/0) - No excuse to lose to a not very good FCS team. Get some confidence before the rivalry game the next week.

9/22 WVU (50/50) - Ugh we should have won last year, but the incompetence and lack of talent did us in. JT Daniels is maybe a better QB, I'm not really sure, but I think its another tight rivalry game on a Thursday night in Lane. It'll be a fun one, fingers crossed the Black Diamond Trophy comes home like the Commonwealth Cup, just a brief stay with the wrong team.

10/1 @ UNC (45/55) - I dont think Mack really has it, their defense was so loving bad last year. I mean realistically they have a huge talent advantage, if it plays out that way on the road. Wouldn't surprise me to see us drop it, but I also think this roster knows they can beat them and that matters a bit. Close one imo.

10/8 @ Pitt (30/70) - Yeah I mean I never want to give Narduzzi that much credit, but he's crafted a floor at Pitt that is higher than ours right now. The defense will be stiff, just a question of if they can shread our defense like they have the last few without standout RBs or a QB with a track record. That said it's mid october, so probably have a good grasp on if they've figured it out or not on offense. Just doesn't feel like one we will get this year while Pry figures out the roster and can recruit some more talent in.

10/15 Miami (30/70) - At least its at home, they have more talent, a more established QB and Cristobal has a high floor as a coach with talent to work with. I want this to be a real rivalry again, and despite some ups and downs its been back and forth. Don't expect a W this year, but it would be a good one for him to get.

10/27 @ NCSU (30/70) - Bonus points on the fun/hate factor since 2 of our former coaches are on their staff now, but this is a developed team way further ahead with their coach than ours. Carter Finley is a great time and it'll be a fun time for one team, I just don't think it'll be the Hokies.

11/5 Georgia Tech (70/30) - Man they're bad, they've been bad, their best player left, Collins is ahead on the program timeline side of things I guess, but I just don't see us dropping a game to this squad. They just aren't talented or have anything going on that impresses me. Maybe they are actually better, but 3-9 has been them, and we aren't gonna be that kinda bad.

11/12 @ Duke (60/40) - Elko is a good coach, but that team has no real talent and plays in an empty bowl of a stadium. Should not be losing here with both teams having new staffs.

11/19 @ Liberty (55/45) - Man gently caress this school and us paying to play them and going the hour up the road to em. I want them wiped off the schedule, but that isn't likely. No Malik Willis says to me we should win this, but its late in the season who knows and its not like Hugh Freeze is a bad coach (just a poo poo person).

11/26 @ UVA (95/5) - They still can't beat our worst teams with their best players. Prove it to me that this isn't a sure W and I'll reconsider it. UVA won't have a better defense and the offense will be good, but that O line is scary not great which I think prevents them from being more than mediocre at best.

12/7 ACC Title Game (5/95) - lol no, even with a final year of coastal chaos it won't be us representing, if it is, we've either massively overachieved or everyone else sucked even harder.

Best Outcome: 9-3/5-3 ACC - Best possible case scenario is this team wins all the non conference and beats everyone but the clearly better programs on the schedule. This would result in a 3 game losing streak in the middle of the season, but the back end will certainly create the opportunity to close strong. This would prob be good for 2nd or 3rd in the Coastal which would be a huge win. It also means Wells at QB is a huge upgrade and we finally have WRs that make an impact. Defense would also have to take a step forward which with Pry at the helm wouldn't be impossible for him to make something nice out of the scraps he has.

Expected Outcome: 6-6/4-4 ACC - Lose to WVU, lose to who you should, and drop one of UNC/BC/or :shudder: UVA and that firmly puts you in off to a decent start, but doing what you could with what you had. The team is low on talent, but I think a bowl game is the expectation. There are a lot of programs with the same or worse talent in the division we will be battling with which will make for some toss ups. The team will need all the practices it can get so a bowl game is important in Pry's first year imo.

Worst Outcome: 5-7/2-6 ACC - This would be bad, but it would entail beating our instate minor league games, Duke & GT and dropping games to everyone else on the schedule. I suppose it could go one worse (4-8) if Liberty could beat us in November, but I won't be that pessimistic. The margins are going to be tight on this team, and the worst case is bad, but I still don't think its truly truly dire. I could be wrong though, lots of media folks think we're basically the worst team in the ACC above only Duke.

Tennessee Volunteers


As predicted Milton wasn't actually a QB and Hendon Hooker from VT took the Vols to excitement and a bowl game. Heupel seems like a good fit for the mess that is generally UTK sports, and most importantly...they were fun to watch again. Win or lose the team was not embarrassed generally and did plenty to get hyped about. Let's not forget we can add now iconic mustard bottles to our wall of identifiable things about the Vols. I dunno if they're really the 2nd best team in the East, but they could be! That's fun we haven't had in a long while

9/1 Ball State (85/15) - Vols gonna score many TDs against them I think. Second year in the 4 verts life I expect big plays, and not a lot of TOP.

9/10 @ Pitt (55/45) - A flip of my prediction from last season where they played a more established program close enough they could have won if Hendon started the game. Their defense will still be tricky, but the QB edge is here esp for a player thats been to lovely Heinz Acrisure whatever the gently caress field before. Should be a good one.

9/17 Akron (85/15) - The Zips occasionally can score I don't really know that much about them, but I feel good this is a comfortable win.

9/24 Florida (45/55) - Florida owns us. 1 win in the last like 15 something years. That said, this Vols team should beat them in a transition year where a lot of the incoming talent won't be there until next year. Can't really give us the edge, but it feels like a good year to get a W against the Gators.

10/8 @ LSU (50/50) - Yeah umm I dunno. LSU has some talent, but they haven't exactly been good and its hard to say how quickly Brian Kelly can get them playing his brand of ball. Feels like a toss up, my prevailing memory of @LSU is Dooley loving up a sure win by substituting when he didn't have to. CHAOS BABY DUMB SEC CHAOS

10/15 Alabama (20/80) - Yeah I don't see us beating Bama, but I think it'll be competitive and fun like last years before it got away from them at the end. They have an actual chance maybe? If it isn't a blow out or an embarrassment I'm okay.

10/22 UT Martin (95/5) - In state FCS NOT IN NOVEMBER BUT LATE OCTOBER HOW DARE WE. Yeah nice W after getting beaten up by the SEC West the prior two weeks.

10/29 Kentucky (50/50) - I really like Stoops and wanted VT to get him, but hey this is now a fun rivalry. Got em last year unexpectedly, so we shall see, but this is a tight competitive game again.

11/5 @ Georgia (20/80) - I mean...like Bama i think we have a slim chance to be surprising, but I don't expect a W esp on the road.

11/12 Mizzou (55/45) - I think we should get a W at home, hung a ton on em last year, so lets see it happen again.

11/19 @ South Carolina (55/45) - I think Shane is gonna get them going, but I think we've still got an edge this year. Rattler will be an upgrade, so I think it'll be tighter, Vols just started with more talent and I think it should carry them. Slight lean for the Vols.

11/26 Vanderbilt (90/10) - Lol Vandy, you don't even have a unique logo anymore. Bad team that will take a good coach a while to drag back to decent. One of the few assured Ws on the schedule I think.

Best Outcome 10-2/6-2 SEC - If Heupel wants to strap a rocket to the hype train for this team, becoming the actual 2nd best team in the East is what its going to take. The offense continues to be explosive, the defense tightens up, and the offense can control the ball when they need to. Beat everyone out of conference (taking down a ranked Pitt team with a new QB on the road would be nice) and lose only to the juggernauts. This feels like it would need a lot of injury and other luck to pull off, but given they got to 7 and were close to 8 or 9 wins last year, I think year 2 could produce a big jump.

Expected Outcome 8-4/5-3 SEC - I feel like they're gonna manage 8 wins. Maybe they beat Pitt and lose to someone in conference they maybe shouldn't later, or they lose to Pitt but find an extra W somewhere against Florida/LSU/Kentucky. A bowl game should be a given. This would mean the offense is just a bit better than last year, but still manages to disappear at a critical point or two and the defense while better isn't good enough to really hold up over the entire season.

Worst Outcome 6-6/3-5 SEC - I think that if things go badly (Hendon gets injured), the defense doesn't really improve, and it just continues to be classic Vols luck (for me as a fan) it likely means dropping every game thats a toss up and needing a run in November to make a bowl game. This would be hurtful, but hopefully if the team is exciting and there are reasons for the let down, it could be a good springboard to next year. Year 3 is where we should really expect things from this staff and team. This would be bad, but not so bad that I think there would be major cause for concern. If the floor is a bowl game, we're doing okay.

What do y'all have for your teams? Optimism springs eternal in this thread for a snap hasn't happened yet.

Better late than never i suppose to get those predictions up.

The Notorious ZSB fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Aug 25, 2022

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Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Thanks for the thread and good OP, ZSB! Copy-and-pasting my post from the N/V thread:

Here's my preseason predictions for the Oklahoma Sooners

HC Lincoln Riley, QB Caleb Williams, and a bunch of recruits left to be replaced by Clemson DC Brent Venables as HC , UCF QB transfer Dillon Gabriel, and a bunch of other transfers. Jeff Lebby is hired away from Ole Miss as OC, and is reunited with Gabriel who he coached at UCF. Team is very much in flux but still has talent on the roster, meaning expectations are high-ish with the caveat of "no one really knows how this season will go." I suspect the Nebraska game will be tougher than many think, and how that game swings could have downstream effects on the rest of the season.

Week 1: vs. UTEP--W

Week 2: vs. Kent State--W

Week 3: @ Nebraska--Toss-up
  • OU is favored by 4.5. Nebraska played to their level of competition throughout last season (even if they couldn't ever finish the jobs), and being in Lincoln the crowd is gonna be jazzed the gently caress up. Sooners will have had two games to help gel. If OU wins this I think most games I have marked as toss-ups below are Ws, if OU loses those swing the other way. And 11:00 AM kickoff!!:bahgawd:
Week 4: vs. Kansas State--W
  • I think Klieman is a decent enough coach and will consistently get KState to 7-8 wins each season but OU should handle them this year, especially since it's in Norman.
Week 5: @ TCU--W
  • TCU had been trending down for a few years before Patterson got ran out last season, Sonny may get them moving in the right direction but probably not this quickly.
Week 6: Texas--Toss-up
  • The shootout is always insane and I loving love it for that.
Week 7: vs. Kansas--W
  • I genuinely hope Leipold gets the Jayhawks to at least not be embarrassing even if not a team that can consistently win games, but this one's a lock.
Week 8: BYE

Week 9: @ Iowa State--W
  • Cambell has gotten ISU to play OU really loving tough the last few years, but ISU loses too much talent. Bet it's a good game but OU pulls it out.
Week 10: vs. Baylor--Toss-up
  • It pains me greatly to say that Baylor is likely to stick around as a solid football program for the next few years at the least. Being in Norman is a plus, but the Bears have played OU well lately.
Week 11: @ West Virginia--W/Toss-up?
  • WVU seems to have unfortunately fallen off quite a bit, but that + on the road + Bedlam next week is a perfect recipe for a trap game. I do think OU wins this one but wouldn't be surprised at all to see them poo poo the bed.
Week 12: vs. Oklahoma State--Toss-up
  • If this is in Stillwater I pencil it in as an L. I've got a bad feeling ol' Gundy may have shaken off the little brother complex that has always made him crawl into a hole in Bedlam. The 'Pokes lose a lot on defense but Spencer Sanders is back at the helm yet again--not that he's some QB wonder but he'll be seasoned against OU and has played in Norman.
Week 13: @ Texas Tech--W/Toss-up?
  • This seems like a big let-down game the week after Bedlam. If OU is in contention for the Big 12 title game and/or won Bedlam the week before I think it's a pretty solid W, if either of those aren't the case I can see a trip out to Lubbock to cap an uninspired season being rough.

OU's reasonable ceiling: 11-1
OU's reasonable floor: 7-5

I'm gonna say OU finishes 9-3 this year; most likely losses are to Baylor and OSU, and then take your pick of Nebraska, Texas, or one of the ? games.

Judgy Fucker fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Aug 25, 2022

Stanley Tucheetos
May 15, 2012

Since an Oklahoma prediction was already done I suppose I'll do a prediction on my #2 team Louisville.

Last Year Louisville had a disappointing season and ended up 6-7. Scott Satterfield is on the hot seat this year. All is not lost however as Louisville has plenty of returning players that should help make the difference and come out with a winning season this year. Of particular note is the return of QB Malik Cunningham who last year racked up over 1000 yards rushing while being just shy of 3000 yards passing. The defense hasn't been amazing under his tenure, however they have steadily improved each year under Satterfield and I see no reason why this won't be the case this year.

Week 1: At Syracuse - Win

Week 2: At UCF - Tossup

Week 3: Florida State - Win

Week 4: USF - Win

Week 5: Boston College - Win

Week 6: At Virginia - Win

Week 7: Pittsburgh - loss

Week 8: Wake Forest - Win

Week 9: James Madison - Win

Week 10: At Clemson - Loss

Week 11: NC State - Loss

Week 12: At Kentucky - Loss

Ceiling: 8-4

Floor: 6-6

My Prediction: 7-5

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.
Copying my outrageously homer take over here.

Go Ducks!!! Ain't no stopping the quack this year!

9/3 - Georgia - W
9/10 - Eastern Washington - W
9/17 - BYU - W
9/24 - Wazzu - W
10/1 - Stanford - W
10/8 - Arizona - W
10/22 - UCLA - W
10/29 - Cal - W
11/5 - Colorado - W
11/12 - Washington - W
11/19 - Utah - W
11/26 - OSU - W
12/2 - Pac 12 championship - Utah - W
12/31 - Fiesta Bowl - tOSU - W
1/9 - CFP Championship - Bama - W

Seriously, you think you can stop this?



Yeah right.




15-0 gonna be so sweet :smug:

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Stanley Tucheetos posted:

Since an Oklahoma prediction was already done I suppose I'll do a prediction on my #2 team Louisville.

I don't know about anyone else but I'd love to read your take on OU's season :)


This and the Duck shredding a bag of Tostitos are among my favorite CFB images

Judgy Fucker fucked around with this message at 02:04 on Aug 25, 2022

LeeMajors
Jan 20, 2005

I've gotta stop fantasizing about Lee Majors...
Ah, one more!


Flawda Gators

Napier’s first year, thin at receiver, decent backs, talented but unproven QB. D should be pretty good but also thin. D line has some real potential breakout talent.

Utah Utes: L

I want to think we have a punchers chance in this but with no warm up, I think we take a pretty healthy beating.

Kentucky Wildcats: L

Kentucky might be better than last year and we are likely to be worse.

USF Bulls: W

Tennessee Volunteers: W

We have a hex on them currently (somehow) and I’m not going to question it.

Eastern Washington Eagles: W

A real chance for a Georgia Southern redux here but I think/hope we get it done.

Mizzou Tigers: Tossup

I don’t have a feel here. Mizzou always seems to have our number. Gut says loss.

LSU Tigahs: L

Too talented. Hopefully there’s a classic Kelly QB cockup here and they won’t play up to their potential. But they’re loaded.

Georgia Bulldogs: L

:laffo:

Napier pulls this off and expectations will be so high he won’t survive for long. It won’t happen anyway.

TAMU Aggies: L

At college station, shiny stable full of expensive defensive stars. Jimbo likes to outclever himself on offense, but I think there’s too much firepower here.

South Carolina Gamecocks: tossup

Beamer has made believers of this team and they should be better if Rattler gets his loving confidence back. Otherwise, I think it’s a likely win.

Vanderbilt Commodores: W

Vanderbilt is Not Good. But you never know!

Florida State Seminoles: W

Somehow still a dumpster fire.


I really only see 4-5 likely wins here. Several tossups. If Napier steals games against Kentucky, Tennessee, SC and TAMU I’d consider it a success.

2022 is going to be painful, I’d reckon.

downout
Jul 6, 2009

OSU schedule:

vs Notre Dame 9/3
vs Arkansas State 9/10
vs Toledo 9/17
vs Wisconsin 9/24
vs Rutgers 10/1
@ Michigan State 10/8
vs Iowa 10/22
@ Penn State 10/29
@ Northwestern 11/5
vs Indiana 11/12
@ Maryland 11/19
vs Michigan 11/26

If Knowles' defense is as good as the preseason hype, then OSU is probably favored in all games. If not, welp if they can reduce 3rd and 4th down conversions by even 25% from last year, then it should be a 10-2 year at worst. The offense should be pretty impressive again this year. The fact is ~5 teams on their schedule have the ability to be good, but it's rare they all put it together. And this year all five of those teams have turnover and questions.

Worst case: 9-3
Reasonable case: 11-1
Best case: 12-0

D.N. Nation
Feb 1, 2012

2022 Georgia Bulldogs

Last year: :smuggo:

Departing: A whole bunch of guys

Returning: Stetson Bennett IV, who legitimately turns 25 this season; the BEEFDOZER® (TEs Brock Bowers, Arik Gilbert, Darnell Washington, and Oscar Delp, who should all be on the field at the same time running tunnel screens because it'd be hilarious), Kenny McIntosh, taking over at RB1; Jalen Carter, taking over as That Dude on the DL; LB Nolan Smith, who was once the #1 recruit in the country and has had a fine enough career at UGA but still seems like he has something to prove; Kelee Ringo :smuggo:.

Schedule:

Oregon (in Atlanta)
Samford
@ SCAR
Kent State
@ Mizzou
Auburn
Vandy
Florida (WLOCP)
UT
@ Miss. State
@ UK
GT

Georgia will be favored in all of these, usually by double digits. That said, they lost a TON of talent and flipping the knob from "historically great defense" to "probably great defense" could make things a little wonky. The '21 offense had the benefit of knowing that D just wasn't gonna let anyone score; what happens when they have to work a little? Also the punting situation is apparently not great.

Best case: Repeat. It's a stretch, but this is a runnable regular season table.

Worst case: Start with a greasy upset against Oregon, lose @ SCAR or something, get right enough to come back and win the East only to get obliterated by Bama and head to, oh, the Citrus.

Likely case: 11-1, SEC East champs, lose to Bama again with no mulligan this time, go to a NY6 bowl as a lowkey close to the Stetson Era. Flags fly forever, baby. We now live in a world where LOL 1980 doesn't apply and Kirby won a natty his way. You may not like it, but accept it.

D.N. Nation fucked around with this message at 02:53 on Aug 25, 2022

Troy Queef
Jan 12, 2013




Missouri Football 2022

Nobody knows anything about this team! Last year's starting QB got hurt and transferred to Indiana, the defensive coordinator who gave up n+1 yards to Tennessee went back to the NFL and got replaced by an ex-LSU guy, they had the best recruiting class in school history headlined by #1 national WR Luther Burden III (who has his own line of potato chips in an NIL deal with Red Hot Riplets, available soon at your local Schnucks), but the gap between the incoming talent and the current talent is pretty stark. They've been picked by just about everyone in the media to finish P6 in the SEC East (Vandy, as per usual, is DFL), get about 6 wins, and play in a Poulan-Weed Eater Bowl.

Sept 1 vs Louisiana Tech: A rare midweek kick for the Tigers, and on Week 1 no less. Tech has a new coach in Sonny Cumbie so they are an unknown quanitity. I'm thinking win but this is Mizzou after all, 70/30.

Sept 10 at Kansas State: Hoo boy, this should be interesting. K-State has a bunch of heat around them now that Klieman has got his guys in and all, but it's enough of a "get up for it" game that I have Mizzou winning, 60/40.

Sept 17 vs Abilene Christian: FCS game, it's a win with 95/5 certainty.

Sept 24 at Auburn: This game has a lot of intrigue around it because Bryan Harsin's seat is very hot, Drinkwitz got his start coaching under Gus Malzahn, and the Yella Fella has been pretty vocal about getting a member of the Family back in charge. Auburn did not impress me much last year and they've lost Bo Nix to Oregon, but at the same time this is Mizzou we're talking about. I have this as a true push, 50/50.

Oct 1 vs Georgia: Nope. 90/10 loss.

Oct 8 at Florida: Florida's in a weird place and Mizzou has made them sweat quite a bit since joining the SEC, but again since they're such an unknown quantity I'd have to go 55/45 win.

Oct 22 vs Vandy: It's Vandy. They're down bad. 90/10 win.

Oct 29 at South Carolina: Weird things happen in this game! I am honestly rating it as a toss-up, mostly because Spencer Rattler fits Shane Beamer's system pretty well.

Nov 5 vs Kentucky: The Cayuts have been our bogey team quite a bit and honestly seeing media go gaga for them and another team on this list has angered me a bit. Stoops always seems to pull some stupid luck out of his rear end so I'm going 60/40 loss, but then again we are getting into the colder months and that's honestly Mizzou's only home-field advantage.

Nov 12 at Tennessee: I have this as a 65/35 loss because of away game/Josh Heupel knowing a lot of Mizzou's weaknesses.

Nov 19 vs New Mexico State: 90/10 win, NM State really should think about going FCS.

Nov 25 vs Arkansas: Hoo boy. Arkansas got their tires pumped quite a lot by quite a lot of people (including a certain podcast that rhymes with "Shmutdown Shmullcast" that has cancelled Mizzou for vibes and beating the Gators/Vols when they first came into the league) but I do not think it's sustainable. That being said, Arky does have a good bit of talent, but they've struggled a lot in Columbia. 55/45 win but you never know.

Best case: 10-2 with wins over Auburn/Florida/Arky/Kentucky, losses to UGA and Tennessee put them in the top half of the SEC East, Luther Burden really is as advertised, and we make the Holiday Bowl or similar.

Worst case: 6-6, Luther Burden does his ACL, the quarterback situation gets so bad Sam Horn quits to play baseball, and we go to another Poulan-Weed Eater Bowl.

Likely case: Either 8-4 or 9-3, with Arky/Kentucky/Auburn being the swing games.

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

2022 Houston Cougars

So Houston's got a senior QB, tons of depth on offense, and the most talent on the other side of the ball than there's been in a long time. Usually when this happens it's time to wreck shop, and I think they can run the table in the AAC. UH is getting run as a playoff contender but I don't see it - no marquee OOC opponent and no Cincinnati or UCF on the schedule - nor do I care. Winning the AAC and getting to the Cotton Bowl is the real goal for UH fans, and the playoffs can come eventually because the long Coog national nightmare ends on July 1, 2023 when UH finally joins the Big 12.

Sept 3 at UTSA - W - Scoreboard's going to get a workout but the defensive talent gap is too much in UH's favor.

Sept 10 at Texas Tech - L - UH hasn't won in Lubbock since 1990 and this is probably the best chance to win there since then, but Tech is going to be a sneaky good team and a tough out in Lubbock. Gonna go with historical trends here and call a close loss. Tech are bros for playing UH through the mid-major era.

Sept 17 vs Kansas - W - Kansas isn't gonna just walk in and throw their feet up like it's some candy rear end place like DKR.

Sept 24 vs Rice - W

Sept 30 vs Tulane - W - Always a tougher out than they ought to be, but I kinda get a feeling Willie Fritz has taken Tulane as far as it's willing to go...and they'll have better luck in Houston against Rice next year.

Oct 7 at Memphis - L - The jilted brides. Memphis would burn their entire program to the ground to win what's likely the last meeting between these two. And for all the cheap tricks and dirty plays they're going to throw at UH, they might just do it.

Oct 22 at Navy - W - Navy still doesn't have the QB they need to make their option work, so it's gonna be another ugly year at Annapolis.

Sept 17 vs USF - W - USF is a hot mess and a perfect opponent to play on Homecoming weekend.

Nov 5 at SMU - W - See Memphis, but not the same rage.

Nov 12 vs Temple - W - They're not going to offer much resistance while they take a year to retool. They'll feast on the incoming CUSA teams in the near future.

Nov 19 at East Carolina - W - If they improve a little on last year this is gonna be a massive trap game.

Nov 26 vs Tulsa - W - Not gonna miss these guys.

AAC Title Game - Dec 3 vs Cincinnati - L - They're gonna take a step back with all those losses to the NFL but they still have tons of depth and should cruise through AAC play. I figure UH will be the higher ranked team so they host. Never has been easy to beat Cincy and it won't be in the future either.

Best case - 14-0, AAC Champs, Cotton Bowl win over Notre Dame
Worst case - 6-6 and a ton of questions heading into the Big 12
My Prediction - 10-3, another bowl win over an uninterested P5 team

Other conferences -

ACC - Clemson over Pitt
Big 10 - Michigan over Wisconsin
Big 12 - Oklahoma over Baylor
Pac 12 - Utah over Oregon
SEC - Alabama over Georgia

AAC - Cincinnati over Houston
CUSA - UAB over UTSA
MAC - Toledo over Kent State
MWC - San Diego State over Air Force
SBC - Coastal Carolina over Louisiana Lafayette

Peach Bowl - Georgia vs Michigan
Fiesta Bowl - Alabama vs Clemson
CFP Title - Alabama vs Georgia
National Champions - Alabama

Orange Bowl - NC State vs Baylor
Cotton Bowl - Notre Dame vs Cincinnati
Sugar Bowl - Texas A&M vs Oklahoma
Rose Bowl - Ohio State vs Utah

dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Aug 25, 2022

TheAlmightyFrog
Oct 7, 2007

squeeeak
Kentucky
There is more hype this year than there has ever been for Kentucky football since Bear Bryant in the early 50s. First preseason ranking in over 40 years. A quarterback with first round potential. Questions abound with unproven receivers, a revamped O line, and depth in the secondary, but reports out of fall camp are all positive so far.

Stoops is 2 wins from passing Bryant as the winningest coach in program history, and the only coach with 2 10-win seasons (out of 4 ever). Stoops seems to be at his best when he has a chip on his shoulder, and Calipari's recent comments has him out to prove this is more than just a basketball school. and honestly, rifle, volleyball, and track have all had more recent success than basketball

Miami (OH) - W - nothing special to see, play calling stays pretty vanilla ahead of big week 2

@Florida - W - I really think they pull this one off, having Florida early in the season helps

Youngstown St - W - Stoops' home town school

N Illinois - W - don't look ahead, don't want a repeat of Chattanooga last year

@Ole Miss - L - I think they split against the Mississippi schools, and this one is on the road

Sout Carolina - W - at home, and I've watched enough Oklahoma games the past two years to not buy the Spencer Rattler hype

Mississippi St - W - at home, avenging last year's loss, but the vertical game is concerning

@Tennessee - L - it's a curse, Tennessee could field a team of middle schoolers and I would still pick them to win

@Missouri - W - with all due respect to Troy Queef above, Kentucky is the SEC team that would least affected by cold weather

Vanderbilt - W - a late season breather, but again don't get caught looking ahead

Georgia - L - the SEC made this the last game for a reason, come in with one loss and this could be for the East, still could be if Georgia slips at all, but despite Chris Doering's optimism I don't see a win here

Louisville - W - last 3 games UK has won by a combined score of 153-44, trend continues

Prediction: 9-3, and maybe sneaking into a NY6 bowl finally

Best case: 11-1 is a pipe dream, so I'll say a 10 win regular season is the ceiling

Worst case: 7-5, UF, Ole Miss, SC, MSU, UT, and Missouri could all be toss-ups, but I don't think they lose all 6, 2-4 against the group would be disappointing though, even 8-4 overall would feel like a disappointment which is crazy considering there have only been 5 8-win seasons in my life (and 3 of those included bowl wins)

The Notorious ZSB
Apr 19, 2004

I SAID WE'RE NOT GONNA BE FUCKING SUCK THIS YEAR!!!

dirty shrimp money posted:

Other conferences -

ACC - Clemson over NC State


lol they're in the same division, fair though that might be about who really gets a shot to win the conference. next year with the new scheduling you could be right!

D.N. Nation
Feb 1, 2012

Time for my sidepiece team, the Duke Blue Devils

Last year: Cutcliffe was the best coach in school history other than Wallace Wade, but he got old (still younger than Saban, somehow!) and bad and Duke hit rock bottom once again. Though probably not the rock bottom they've had in the past, like say under Ted Roof when they won 4 games in 4 years.

Dookies went out and hired Mike Elko, which is an interesting and probably good choice and hoo buddy thank goodness it wasn't Jason Garrett as had been rumored. Elko's defensive mind will be tested as Duke was literally the worst defensive team in college football last season. Gave up 518 yards and 40 points a game, just LOL.

This year: OOC isn't that strenuous and the ACC is butt, so there might be some wins here. But Duke will probably be favored in only two games, none of them in-conference.

Temple- these guys suck and Duke gets them at home in front of a crowd of hundreds, I think Elko can get his first win in Game 1, W
@ Northwestern- these guys suck too (they'll still beat Nebraska) but it's a road game, Tossup
NC A&T- Duke seems to play A&T or NC Central every season and always rolls, W
@ Kansas- Duke blew the Jayhawks, who beat Texas, out last season, but KU's further through the rebuild right now, L
Virginia- Bronco hit a program wall and retired, but their current ebb is still > Duke's, Tossup
@ Georgia Tech- Geeeeeoooooff is a terrible coach and will be fired after the season (don't wanna pay that buyout!), at this point I figure the Jackets will have quit on the year so Duke gets a surprising W
North Carolina- Why don't they play this game at the end of the year anymore? It's weird. L
@ Miami- Count me as someone who thinks Cristobal will only get the Canes back to "pretty good," L
@ Boston College- Eagles started the post-Addazio Era by being every bit as forgettably average as they were before, L
Virginia Tech- Man, Fuente was bad. Remember when Duke straight blew the Hokies out at Lane Stadium? Just like the other Virginia, the Hokies' ebb is still > Duke's, L
@ Pittsburgh- Pitt is so overhyped this season, but they aren't losing to Duke, L
Wake Forest- Deacs have whipped Duke's rear end for a while now, L

Best case: Uh...jeez, even saying "bowl" seems like stretch. Maybe "vague bowl contention"? 5 wins by midseason and then lose out to barely miss a bowl? Something like that?

Worst case: Total Year 0 awful, Dookies beat A&T and no one else

Likely case: Wins over Temple/A&T and they sneak in two more upsets to finish 4-8. Better'n last season, but a ways to go

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.
So to try and be more realistic about Oregon this year, let's look at things again.

Critical factors:

A new head coach! Former Georgia DC Dan Lanning is now in charge.
A new QB! Auburn transfer Bo Nixon is helming the offense.
Solid returning talent on both sides. Ducks may have the most player talent in the Pac 12 this year.

9/3 - Georgia - Georgia's lost a lot of players to the NFL, but still has tons of talent and confidence, this is basically a home game for them, and Oregon is coming in with a new coaching staff. Georgia probably has a talent edge even with the NFL departures, but Oregon under Cristobal has been really good at recruiting the last few years and actually has lines on both sides of the ball that could probably hold up in the SEC. New Oregon head coach Dan Lanning coming out of Georgia makes this interesting because he has all the schematic knowledge and player insight on Georgia you could ask for. Oregon's offense under Cristobal had been pretty conservative, it'll be interesting to see if it opens up under Lanning. Incoming transfer QB Bo Nixon from Auburn has plenty of experience against SEC defenses. Oregon has good talent on both sides of the ball. This is definitely an uphill battle for Oregon, and will probably be a loss, but if it's at all close it'll still be a good launching point for the rest of a successful season. L, but hopefully close.

Secondary prediction: I will have consumed a fair amount of beer by mid afternoon on 9/3 no matter the outcome of the game! My posting may be bad/sloppy/incoherent! Expect disjointed GIFs of various ducks doing things!

9/10 - Eastern Washington - W I know nothing about Eastern Washington, but Oregon should have significantly better talent on both sides of the ball. Should be a tune-up game before going up against BYU and then conference play.

9/17 - BYU - W Ducks should again be the better team at home. BYU should put up more of a fight then Eastern Washington, but the Ducks should again be able to put them away without too much trouble.

9/24 - Wazzu - W Ducks are the more talented team. Should be a W.

10/1 - Stanford - W In Eugene, Ducks take this one easily.

10/8 - Arizona - W On the road, but Arizona was bad last year. Should be a W.

10/22 - UCLA - W This one's in Eugene. Ducks should again be the better team.

10/29 - Cal - W On the road but Cal wasn't great last year. Should be a W

11/5 - Colorado - W Much like Cal, Colorado wasn't great last year. Should also be a W.

11/12 - Washington - W In Eugene, Ducks should be favored and come away with a win.

11/19 - Utah - Toss Up The ducks couldn't get anything going against Utah twice last season. Game's in Eugene this year. With a new QB and coach, this one's a complete question mark to me. The Ducks should have more player talent, but that was true last year as well and it didn't matter. This will be the game that really decides where the Ducks are going in the postseason.

11/26 - OSU - W Ducks have more talent. Unless this becomes a trap game because of a hangover from Utah, they should roll to a victory comfortably.

Best case: Ducks have another marquee stunner to open the season on the road (neutral game my rear end). They build on this momentum through the regular season, sweeping through the rest of their OOC and conference slate before getting revenge against Utah. They finish regular season 12-0, favored going into the conference championship and a real shot at a CFB berth.

Worst case: Ducks get blasted by Georgia, drop a random game against an inferior team per Pac 12 style, and get embarrassed by Utah for the third game in a row. 9-3 but still probably with a berth in the Pac 12 championship game as the rest of the Pac 12 North looks worse than the Ducks this year. They then get embarrassed by Utah for the fourth (gently caress) game in a row, go to a decent bowl game, and get embarrassed in that as well to finish 9-5.

Likely case: 10-2 or 11-1. Ducks are loaded with talent, will be favored in every game that isn't against Georgia or Utah, and the Pac 12 North should be theirs for the taking. More than anything, this season hinges on the outcome of the Utah game on 11/19. Even with an opening loss against Georgia, as long as they looked respectable in that matchup and took care of business the rest of the way, they should be able to make a NY6 bowl or better. If they drop the game against Utah, they still get another shot in the Pac 12 CCG to make a NY6 bowl.

Nervous fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Aug 25, 2022

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006


Aww yeah that's the stuff

kayakyakr
Feb 16, 2004

Kayak is true
I'm not going to give a game-by-game w/l for TTU. They're just so hard to predict this year that it's not worth it.

I think they can finish anywhere from 5-7 (1-2 in non-conference, 4-5 conference) to 9-3 (3-0 non-conference, 6-3 conference).

Sep 3, 2022 - Murray St.
Sep 10, 2022 - Houston
Sep 17, 2022 - @NC State
Sep 24, 2022 - Texas
Oct 1, 2022 - @Kansas St.
Oct 8, 2022 - @Okla. St.
Oct 22, 2022 - West Virginia
Oct 29, 2022 - Baylor
Nov 5, 2022 - @TCU
Nov 12, 2022 - Kansas
Nov 19, 2022 - @Iowa St.
Nov 26, 2022 - Oklahoma

Key games: Houston, @NC State, @KSU, @Iowa St.

So many questions: will Tech's defense be any better under the new regime? Will the pass-heavy offense put up points in its first year? How much will McGuire interfere with the offensive play-calling to play a more conservative game?

By all accounts, this McGuire gameday philosophy is similar to the Kingsbury years: put up points and get the ball back to your offense in any way possible. The biggest difference being that McGuire spends most of his time recruiting rather than scheming. We'll see how that plays out in the long term. Previous coaches (Tubs, Wells) said that, but they didn't deliver.

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

Judgy Fucker posted:

Aww yeah that's the stuff

This is probably my favorite.

dphi
Jul 9, 2001

Nervous posted:

Likely case: 10-2 or 11-1. Ducks are loaded with talent, will be favored in every game that isn't against Georgia or Utah, and the Pac 12 North should be theirs for the taking. More than anything, this season hinges on the outcome of the Utah game on 11/19. Even with an opening loss against Georgia, as long as they looked respectable in that matchup and took care of business the rest of the way, they should be able to make a NY6 bowl or better. If they drop the game against Utah, they still get another shot in the Pac 12 CCG to make a NY6 bowl.

I agree for the most part - Mario was completely outcoached in the Utah games and knowing what we know now, he'd already been talking to Miami and had one foot out the door, so hopefully the new staff is a little more prepared. One thing to note is there are no divisions anymore starting this season so it's no longer about winning the North to make the CCG, just gotta hope Riley doesn't turn USC around quicker than expected.

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

The Notorious ZSB posted:

lol they're in the same division, fair though that might be about who really gets a shot to win the conference. next year with the new scheduling you could be right!

oops, fixed

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

dphi posted:

I agree for the most part - Mario was completely outcoached in the Utah games and knowing what we know now, he'd already been talking to Miami and had one foot out the door, so hopefully the new staff is a little more prepared. One thing to note is there are no divisions anymore starting this season so it's no longer about winning the North to make the CCG, just gotta hope Riley doesn't turn USC around quicker than expected.

I forgot about the divisions going away. I'd still favor Oregon to be in the CCG. They should out talent the rest of the Pac 12 this year and don't square off against USC. If they're 8-1 in conference play with a lone loss to Utah, it's hard to see them not making it in.

Stanley Tucheetos
May 15, 2012

Judgy Fucker posted:

I don't know about anyone else but I'd love to read your take on OU's season :)

Well I suppose I can do my own take then.

2021 Recap:

Last year if you ask any Sooner fan they will must assuredly all agree that the entire season was a let down. I know 11-2 including a bowl game win over Oregon sounds like a successful year but the sooner faithful are truly a spoiled bunch. They started out 9-0 yet the entire time they looked like a 6-6 the entire time. Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas were only single possession games. Kansas was ahead by at least a touchdown the entire game until the fourth Quarter. Only by not being Texas did they manage to overcome the mighty Jayhawks. Truly the only games they looked good against was Western Carolina, TCU, and Texas Tech. Their first Loss was against Baylor where Dave Aranda's team looked in control the entire time. They dropped their second and last game against Oklahoma State which has only happened 3 times in the past 20 years. In what was most certainly the most shocking development of the coaching carousel USC managed to steal away Lincoln Riley who brought with him Dennis Simmons, Alex Grinch, Roy Manning, Brian Odom, and Bennie Wylie. To counter this Oklahoma brings back Brent Venables as the new head coach. He brings with him Todd Bates, Ted Roof, Jay Valai, Miguel Chavis, Brandon Hall, Jeff Lebby, and Jerry Schmidt.

Key Departures Offense: QB Caleb Williams, QB Spencer Rattler, RB Kennedy Brooks, WR Jadon Haselwood

Key Departures Defense: DT Perrion Winfrey, DE Isaiah Thomas, LB Nik Bonito, LB Brian Asamoah

Key Additions Offense: QB Dillon Gabriel, OG McKade Mettauer, OT Tyler Guyton, TE Daniel Parker

Key Additions Defense: DT Jeffrey Johnson, DE Jonah Laulu, DB Trey Morrison

With that out of the way sooners are excited, and rightly so, for the start of the 2022 season as there is no other reason to live in the state of Oklahoma besides football. Even with all the departures Riley and Grinch didn't leave the cupboards empty and is still loaded with talent. Venables and a large chunk of the Clemson defensive staff are an immediate upgrade on the defensive side of the ball and should have a noticeable year 1 impact. I still don't like Lebby and he should be blacklisted from the sport but unfortunately he is very good at his job making UCF a national champion and being a large part of Ole Miss being the top offense in the sec. If there is one thing you can get a Texas and Oklahoma fan to agree on besides bolting for the sec is that Bennie Wylie is not a good football s&c guy. Bringing back Jerry Schmidt is huge and should be a huge boon especially along the trenches.

Now onto the part everyone actually cares about, the prediction.

Sep 3: UTEP - Win
This game needs no explanation if Oklahoma loses this game Brent Venables will not be a head coach for long.

Sep 10: Kent State - Win
Much like against UTEP this should be an easy win. One notable thing about this game is that due to the new third tier rights with epsn+ this game will no longer be a paperview game that costs over $50 dollars. Hallelujah!

Sep 17: At Nebraska - Win
Nebraska might be our traditional rival but I have serious doubts about them being any good this year. I believe Oklahoma will be much more disciplined and if the peaks at practice and the spring game we have gotten are anything to go by a much more physical team. If they do lose this game Nebraska is either going to be a decent team or more likely Oklahoma is going to have a terrible season

Sep 24: Kansas State - Win
Kansas State has been a thorn in Oklahoma's side recently and by all accounts they should have a solid team this year. Oklahoma still has a massive talent advantage and should win this game on that alone.

Oct 1: At TCU - Win
I'll be honest I don't know much about this this team but it was one of the few teams Oklahoma looked good against last year.

Oct 8: Texas - Tossup
Its hate week and by all accounts Texas is probably not going to be a good team this year. From everything I have heard Texas will have a historically bad offensive line and Quinn Ewers has not impressed. Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy on the other hand are exceptional players and could overcome these deficits. This game is always a tossup and Texas is theoretically if not in practice is the only team with the same quality of talent on the roster in the big 12.

Oct 15: Kansas - Win
Unlike Texas Oklahoma doesn't lose to Kansas. We might play terribly against them and be embarrassed for 40 minutes but by god they will win this game.

Oct 29: At Iowa State - Win
Iowa State has had some strong showings against Oklahoma recently however this year is a rebuilding year for them and it should be a convincing win.

Nov 5: Baylor - Loss
Baylor should have a very physical and disciplined defense that will be able to give anyone trouble. Aranda seems to like what he sees in Blake Shapen and I have no reason to doubt him as he gave plenty of warning to thier previous starting quarterback who he let transfer early into the off season. Oklahoma could still win this game but if they are going to drop a game it will be this one.

Nov 12: At West Virginia - Win
JT Daniels might have all the talent in the world but he has a history of injuries and losing his starting job including to people named after a hat. I think it will be a hard fought victory but a win none the less.

Nov 19: Oklahoma State - win
OSU lost a bunch of players on the defensive side of the ball including their coordinator to the other OSU. Spencer Sanders should be a good starter yet every year he has regressed slightly instead of improving. This will be a close game and the namesake Bedlam usually applies to this game every year even if Oklahoma still ends up winning 9/10 times.

Nov 26: At Texas Tech - win
Joey McGuire seems to be doing the right things at TTU. Last year this game was one of the few games Oklahoma looked great against and I expect it will take more than one off season with a new head coach to change this.

These predictions have the caveat that Dillon Gabriel must remain healthy year round. For the most part Oklahoma should have enough depth at the other positions to come out okay with the odd injury. I just have little faith with the current QB room beyond Gabriel.

Floor: 9-3
Ceiling: 12-0
Reasonable: 10-2
If Dillon Gabriel gets a season ending injury floor: 7-5

Stanley Tucheetos fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Aug 25, 2022

Roasted Donut
Aug 24, 2007

NWA WHITE POWERRR!!!!
Penn State

PSU feels like a total crapshoot to me. They have a ton of talent, though most of it is either a few seniors, the true freshmen class, and last years' true freshmen so it's really unbalanced. The skill positions have a metric ton of talent, it's just about whether they get utilized correctly both in scheme and if the oline and qb will allow anything good to happen. The oline is a constant concern but looks more passable this year than any of the last...i dunno decade or so on paper. the linebackers scare me. We have one absolute stud there, a bunch of typical slower mlb types, and are starting a converted super senior safety at the other outside spot. I'm really hoping this is a situation where they just don't feel comfortable starting one of the freshmen freaks until a few games in or keep them in heavy rotation.

then there's qb. sean clifford returns for his 48th consecutive season starting at qb and that's where all my enthusiasm dies. if you go by stats he was actually playing extremely well before getting hurt in the iowa game. the eye test never matches his stats though, he's always throwing off his back foot, making the wrong reads in rpo, and passing over wide open receivers in the short and intermediate range to make a throw downfield that lands 3 yards out of bounds. i think the best hope is that he starts the first few games to try to avoid a rocky start with a tougher than usual opening schedule then gets hurt and either Allar or Veillieux takes over and owns.

the coaching leaves a lot of questions this year too. franklin is what he is at this point, not a particularly great gameday coach but can recruit like hell. the offense will be in it's second year under Yurcich and really needs to show a lot more than it did last year. this will be the first time in clifford's career that he's had the same oc for back to back years which is loving insane to think about. there's been so much turnover on the offensive staff over the year due to guys getting head coaching gigs or coordinator promotions elsewhere that they've really needed some stability. brent pry is gone to VPI and that bums me out, his defenses have been consistently excellent. manny diaz takes over at dc and i think we'll see a lot more sacks/pressures (hopefully also leading to turnovers) but i doubt it will look as good on the scoreboard as pry's defenses did.

the first 3 games will tell a lot i think. week one is a stupid rear end thursday night bullshit game against Purdue, and week 3 is on the road at auburn. lose both of those, which is a possibility, and the season goes sideways real fast. get through the first 3 games at 2-1 or better and things should be looking alright. i could see this team going 10-2 with their talent level, or i could see them going 7-5. the clifford factor has me feeling like 7-5 is the much more likely option though. i do think they're going to be really loving good the next two seasons, but probably a lot of growing pains this year.

I'll go with my gut instinct that things start turning around this year and they go 9-3. For sure lose to Ohio State, then maybe opening season jitters with a loss to Purdue, then a loss to one of either Michigan or Sparty. Probably Michigan because they have to go on the road this year. End up in the outback bowl or whatever against ole miss or some poo poo. Just hoping for good signs to build off of in to next year.

The Notorious ZSB
Apr 19, 2004

I SAID WE'RE NOT GONNA BE FUCKING SUCK THIS YEAR!!!


Being an ACC football fan is basically being a degenerate can't blame anyone for missing that.

Komet
Apr 4, 2003

It's hard to see Penn State finish as poorly as last season. If they go 8-4 with signs of improvement, especially with younger players, over the course of the season, I'll be happy. This pieces are in place for this to be a pretty good defense. The secondary should be good and the front four should be good, but the linebacker talent and depth is a concern. I think teams will exploit that, especially considering how Jonathan Sutherland is always a step behind in coverage. It's been awhile since I've had this little confidence in the linebacking corp.

This team can go only as far as Clifford can take them. He's got to be the most inconsistent QB at Penn State in over a decade. I'm really unenthusiastic about his return. I'd rather see growing pains under a new QB than watch Clifford continue to blow winnable games.

I think Penn State should beat Purdue Thursday, but anything can happen. Purdue has lost an awful lot of talent from last year.

General Dog
Apr 26, 2008

Everybody's working for the weekend
C/P from earlier:

Texas Aggies:

Overall thought on the schedule is that the conference slate is as favorable as it's going to get- catch LSU and Florida in reset years, Auburn may be a mess, and Ole Miss has a lot to replace from last year. App State and Miami make for a spicy non-conference.

9/3 Sam Houston State - W, but in the future maybe don't schedule a recent FCS champ who's also in a transition year where they're ineligible for postseason play of any kind and have nothing to lose

9/10 App State - W, but again, please don't schedule this team; it's a no-win

9/17 Miami (FL) - W, one of several teams that I'm glad we're getting this year and not in a year or two (NOTE: it's very possible we play them again in a year or two, I haven't checked)

9/24 Arkansas - L, I think we go 2-1 against Arkansas and the Mississippi schools; I'm going to arbitrarily predict this one as the loss

10/1 at Mississippi State - W see above

10/8 at Alabama - L

10/22 at South Carolina - W, since we get two weeks for the bruises to heal

10/29 Ole Miss - W, see Arkansas entry

11/5 Florida - W

11/12 at Auburn - W, odds on this being Harsin's last game?

11/19 UMass - W, really the only true gimme of the season

11/26 LSU - L, this game is always stupid; I don't think they're very good this year but we may find a way to lose it

9-3. Media will giggle at Jimbo some more and post more bad-faith infographics comparing him and Sumlin's records through x games, but with all the young talent that's a successful season IF we've found a quarterback we can feel okay about for 2023.

Coco13
Jun 6, 2004

My advice to you is to start drinking heavily.
The University of Wisconsin Badgers
Pass Offense
Last year, Wisconsin was looking for highly rated QB Graham Mertz to finally be the catalyst to take the Badgers from "almost" to "contender." He did not do that, turning in one of the saddest passing seasons in the last 20 years of Wisconsin football. He showed physical flashes of arm talent and strength, but the decision making crumbled often. Three picks against Notre Dame in the fourth quarter! Compounding matters, the top 3 pass catchers graduated.

Run Offense
Thankfully, there's still some drat good running backs next to Mertz. Braelon Allen is the next "holy poo poo" back, a Ron Dayne-esque body that finally got a full college offseason of conditioning under his belt. He was a beast as a 17 year old! Chez Mellusi is a Clemson transfer that was the original starter before Allen burst on the scene, who provides a pass-catching compliment to Allen. There's a fun wild card in Issac Gurrendo, who is a pure speedster. Put this at 7:38 if it doesn't start there:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SurD8R0Npzg&t=458s

Run Defense
The 3-4 has the mass up front to really be a force, and NT Keanu Benton is the main space-eater. He'll let his linebackers get the glory, especially Nick Herbig.

Pass Defense
The starting secondary looks completely new, with a lot of transfers replacing last year's senior-laden class. Putting a lot of faith in Jim Leonard to turn it around quickly, because whoo boy if they get picked on it'll be a long season.

Schedule
Non-conference is Illinois State, Washington State and New Mexico State in a row - all 3 are wins.
Then @ Ohio State. gently caress me, that's a big ol L and I'm hoping I make it out of the 'Shoe.
Afterwards, it's back to Big 10 West territory with Bret Bielema's Illinois as the Homecoming game and a trip to Ryan Field against Northwestern. Northwestern is supposedly horrible, but Ryan Field is the dumbest loss Wisconsin takes on a regular basis.
Then @ Michigan State, which... maybe? Doubtful but maybe? I say loss.
Back to back home wins against Maryland and Purdue, followed by trips to Iowa and Nebraska. Nebraska looked awful, and Wisconsin's been OK in Iowa City. Maybe a loss in there, maybe a sweep?
Finally, Axe game during Thanksgiving weekend and I will never pick Minnesota to win anything.
I could be talked into a 9-3 season, but this feels like an 8-4. Maybe Mertz gets it together and cuts the picks down. Maybe!

Roasted Donut
Aug 24, 2007

NWA WHITE POWERRR!!!!

Komet posted:

It's hard to see Penn State finish as poorly as last season. If they go 8-4 with signs of improvement, especially with younger players, over the course of the season, I'll be happy. This pieces are in place for this to be a pretty good defense. The secondary should be good and the front four should be good, but the linebacker talent and depth is a concern. I think teams will exploit that, especially considering how Jonathan Sutherland is always a step behind in coverage. It's been awhile since I've had this little confidence in the linebacking corp.

This team can go only as far as Clifford can take them. He's got to be the most inconsistent QB at Penn State in over a decade. I'm really unenthusiastic about his return. I'd rather see growing pains under a new QB than watch Clifford continue to blow winnable games.

I think Penn State should beat Purdue Thursday, but anything can happen. Purdue has lost an awful lot of talent from last year.

Allar got named the backup today so we'll be seeing him at some point this year. Cliff runs too much to stay healthy for long.

Komet
Apr 4, 2003

Roasted Donut posted:

Allar got named the backup today so we'll be seeing him at some point this year. Cliff runs too much to stay healthy for long.

Unfortunately, the Clifford-led teams don't seem to put up enough points early against bad teams for backups to get meaningful playing time in the 4th quarter. I hope Clifford can at least stay healthy through the Auburn game. @Michigan and Ohio State are probably losses, but the November schedule is pretty favorable this year for transitioning to Allar.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Arizona will still only win 2 games this year but will look a lot better in most of the losses.

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

Rick posted:

Arizona will still only win 2 games this year but will look a lot better in most of the losses.

Is this about the Cardinals, Coyotes, Diamondbacks, or Wildcats?

Chieves
Sep 20, 2010

Arizona winning is probably the biggest upset of the day thus far in my book

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Judgy Fucker posted:

Thanks for the thread and good OP, ZSB! Copy-and-pasting my post from the N/V thread:

Here's my preseason predictions for the Oklahoma Sooners

HC Lincoln Riley, QB Caleb Williams, and a bunch of recruits left to be replaced by Clemson DC Brent Venables as HC , UCF QB transfer Dillon Gabriel, and a bunch of other transfers. Jeff Lebby is hired away from Ole Miss as OC, and is reunited with Gabriel who he coached at UCF. Team is very much in flux but still has talent on the roster, meaning expectations are high-ish with the caveat of "no one really knows how this season will go." I suspect the Nebraska game will be tougher than many think, and how that game swings could have downstream effects on the rest of the season.

Week 1: vs. UTEP--W

Week 2: vs. Kent State--W

Week 3: @ Nebraska--Toss-up
  • OU is favored by 4.5. Nebraska played to their level of competition throughout last season (even if they couldn't ever finish the jobs), and being in Lincoln the crowd is gonna be jazzed the gently caress up. Sooners will have had two games to help gel. If OU wins this I think most games I have marked as toss-ups below are Ws, if OU loses those swing the other way. And 11:00 AM kickoff!!:bahgawd:
Week 4: vs. Kansas State--W
  • I think Klieman is a decent enough coach and will consistently get KState to 7-8 wins each season but OU should handle them this year, especially since it's in Norman.
Week 5: @ TCU--W
  • TCU had been trending down for a few years before Patterson got ran out last season, Sonny may get them moving in the right direction but probably not this quickly.
Week 6: Texas--Toss-up
  • The shootout is always insane and I loving love it for that.
Week 7: vs. Kansas--W
  • I genuinely hope Leipold gets the Jayhawks to at least not be embarrassing even if not a team that can consistently win games, but this one's a lock.
Week 8: BYE

Week 9: @ Iowa State--W
  • Cambell has gotten ISU to play OU really loving tough the last few years, but ISU loses too much talent. Bet it's a good game but OU pulls it out.
Week 10: vs. Baylor--Toss-up
  • It pains me greatly to say that Baylor is likely to stick around as a solid football program for the next few years at the least. Being in Norman is a plus, but the Bears have played OU well lately.
Week 11: @ West Virginia--W/Toss-up?
  • WVU seems to have unfortunately fallen off quite a bit, but that + on the road + Bedlam next week is a perfect recipe for a trap game. I do think OU wins this one but wouldn't be surprised at all to see them poo poo the bed.
Week 12: vs. Oklahoma State--Toss-up
  • If this is in Stillwater I pencil it in as an L. I've got a bad feeling ol' Gundy may have shaken off the little brother complex that has always made him crawl into a hole in Bedlam. The 'Pokes lose a lot on defense but Spencer Sanders is back at the helm yet again--not that he's some QB wonder but he'll be seasoned against OU and has played in Norman.
Week 13: @ Texas Tech--W/Toss-up?
  • This seems like a big let-down game the week after Bedlam. If OU is in contention for the Big 12 title game and/or won Bedlam the week before I think it's a pretty solid W, if either of those aren't the case I can see a trip out to Lubbock to cap an uninspired season being rough.

OU's reasonable ceiling: 11-1
OU's reasonable floor: 7-5

I'm gonna say OU finishes 9-3 this year; most likely losses are to Baylor and OSU, and then take your pick of Nebraska, Texas, or one of the ? games.

One game off from the floor. Got KState and TCU wrong (everyone got TCU wrong this year) but did get the last four games being dubious. Even Bedlam has the stink of L on it considering the second half.

General Dog
Apr 26, 2008

Everybody's working for the weekend

General Dog posted:

C/P from earlier:

Texas Aggies:

Overall thought on the schedule is that the conference slate is as favorable as it's going to get- catch LSU and Florida in reset years, Auburn may be a mess, and Ole Miss has a lot to replace from last year. App State and Miami make for a spicy non-conference.

9/3 Sam Houston State - W, but in the future maybe don't schedule a recent FCS champ who's also in a transition year where they're ineligible for postseason play of any kind and have nothing to lose

9/10 App State - W, but again, please don't schedule this team; it's a no-win

9/17 Miami (FL) - W, one of several teams that I'm glad we're getting this year and not in a year or two (NOTE: it's very possible we play them again in a year or two, I haven't checked)

9/24 Arkansas - L, I think we go 2-1 against Arkansas and the Mississippi schools; I'm going to arbitrarily predict this one as the loss

10/1 at Mississippi State - W see above

10/8 at Alabama - L

10/22 at South Carolina - W, since we get two weeks for the bruises to heal

10/29 Ole Miss - W, see Arkansas entry

11/5 Florida - W

11/12 at Auburn - W, odds on this being Harsin's last game?

11/19 UMass - W, really the only true gimme of the season

11/26 LSU - L, this game is always stupid; I don't think they're very good this year but we may find a way to lose it

9-3. Media will giggle at Jimbo some more and post more bad-faith infographics comparing him and Sumlin's records through x games, but with all the young talent that's a successful season IF we've found a quarterback we can feel okay about for 2023.

Well we didn't win 9 games and the media did more than giggle and the bad-faith infographics did fly, but I do think we have a quarterback I feel okay about in 2023, so it's not all bad. If we don't spot South Carolina a kick return to start the game and everyone doesn't get the flu against Florida, we're probably 7-5, which is disappointing but not national news.

General Dog fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Nov 28, 2022

Komet
Apr 4, 2003

I think Penn State exceeded my expectations in every way. Clifford was a reasonable game manager even if he did almost singlehandedly blow the Ohio State game.

-The team improved week to week.
-The defense got really loving good and can play with anyone, except Michigan apparently.
-A true freshman has emerged as the next great Penn State linebacker
-Two true freshman running backs are close to 1,000 yards
-The offensive line improved dramatically, even though injuries started to take their toll in the final week or two.

Allar doesn't need to be a Heisman candidate for Penn State to make a legitimate run at the playoff next year. He just has to be consistently good and not throw games away in an instant, like Clifford. Clifford's offensive stats are basically in the 60-70 ranking. That's not good for a 6th year guy. A QB in the top 30 could get this team over the hump.

EmbryoSteve
Dec 18, 2004

Taste~The~Rainbow

My blood sugar is gon' be like

~^^^^*WHOA*^^^^~

lol at all these Oregon predictions, especially the last 3 games of the year predictions.

downout
Jul 6, 2009

downout posted:

OSU schedule:

vs Notre Dame 9/3
vs Arkansas State 9/10
vs Toledo 9/17
vs Wisconsin 9/24
vs Rutgers 10/1
@ Michigan State 10/8
vs Iowa 10/22
@ Penn State 10/29
@ Northwestern 11/5
vs Indiana 11/12
@ Maryland 11/19
vs Michigan 11/26

If Knowles' defense is as good as the preseason hype, then OSU is probably favored in all games. If not, welp if they can reduce 3rd and 4th down conversions by even 25% from last year, then it should be a 10-2 year at worst. The offense should be pretty impressive again this year. The fact is ~5 teams on their schedule have the ability to be good, but it's rare they all put it together. And this year all five of those teams have turnover and questions.

Worst case: 9-3
Reasonable case: 11-1
Best case: 12-0

quote:

One team did, in fact, put it together.

D.N. Nation
Feb 1, 2012

UGA:

D.N. Nation posted:

Likely case: 11-1, SEC East champs, lose to Bama again with no mulligan this time, go to a NY6 bowl as a lowkey close to the Stetson Era. Flags fly forever, baby. We now live in a world where LOL 1980 doesn't apply and Kirby won a natty his way. You may not like it, but accept it.

Only Mizzou (???) really challenged UGA in the regular season, and other teams did the Dawgs' dirty work w/r/t Bama. Barring, I dunno, a 70-point loss in the SECCG and the team bus crashing, Dawgs headed back to the playoffs. But that wasn't ever out of the realm of possibility. What was, though, was Duke:

D.N. Nation posted:

Best case: Uh...jeez, even saying "bowl" seems like stretch. Maybe "vague bowl contention"? 5 wins by midseason and then lose out to barely miss a bowl? Something like that?

Dookies went 8-4, with all 4 losses of the 1-score variety. No one cares about Duke football but Mike Elko might've done the coaching job of the year.

dphi
Jul 9, 2001

EmbryoSteve posted:

lol at all these Oregon predictions, especially the last 3 games of the year predictions.

lol "all these Oregon predictions"

LeeMajors
Jan 20, 2005

I've gotta stop fantasizing about Lee Majors...
Ah, one more!


LeeMajors posted:

Flawda Gators

Napier’s first year, thin at receiver, decent backs, talented but unproven QB. D should be pretty good but also thin. D line has some real potential breakout talent.

Utah Utes: L

I want to think we have a punchers chance in this but with no warm up, I think we take a pretty healthy beating.

Kentucky Wildcats: L

Kentucky might be better than last year and we are likely to be worse.

USF Bulls: W

Tennessee Volunteers: W

We have a hex on them currently (somehow) and I’m not going to question it.

Eastern Washington Eagles: W

A real chance for a Georgia Southern redux here but I think/hope we get it done.

Mizzou Tigers: Tossup

I don’t have a feel here. Mizzou always seems to have our number. Gut says loss.

LSU Tigahs: L

Too talented. Hopefully there’s a classic Kelly QB cockup here and they won’t play up to their potential. But they’re loaded.

Georgia Bulldogs: L

:laffo:

Napier pulls this off and expectations will be so high he won’t survive for long. It won’t happen anyway.

TAMU Aggies: L

At college station, shiny stable full of expensive defensive stars. Jimbo likes to outclever himself on offense, but I think there’s too much firepower here.

South Carolina Gamecocks: tossup

Beamer has made believers of this team and they should be better if Rattler gets his loving confidence back. Otherwise, I think it’s a likely win.

Vanderbilt Commodores: W

Vanderbilt is Not Good. But you never know!

Florida State Seminoles: W

Somehow still a dumpster fire.


I really only see 4-5 likely wins here. Several tossups. If Napier steals games against Kentucky, Tennessee, SC and TAMU I’d consider it a success.

2022 is going to be painful, I’d reckon.

Honestly I wasn’t too far off.

Didn’t foresee a win against Utah or a loss against Vandy. I also thought TAMU would be better, and had no idea Tennessee would be quite so good.

But yeah. The pain was about right.

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Stanley Tucheetos
May 15, 2012

Stanley Tucheetos posted:

Well I suppose I can do my own take then.

2021 Recap:

Last year if you ask any Sooner fan they will must assuredly all agree that the entire season was a let down. I know 11-2 including a bowl game win over Oregon sounds like a successful year but the sooner faithful are truly a spoiled bunch. They started out 9-0 yet the entire time they looked like a 6-6 the entire time. Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas were only single possession games. Kansas was ahead by at least a touchdown the entire game until the fourth Quarter. Only by not being Texas did they manage to overcome the mighty Jayhawks. Truly the only games they looked good against was Western Carolina, TCU, and Texas Tech. Their first Loss was against Baylor where Dave Aranda's team looked in control the entire time. They dropped their second and last game against Oklahoma State which has only happened 3 times in the past 20 years. In what was most certainly the most shocking development of the coaching carousel USC managed to steal away Lincoln Riley who brought with him Dennis Simmons, Alex Grinch, Roy Manning, Brian Odom, and Bennie Wylie. To counter this Oklahoma brings back Brent Venables as the new head coach. He brings with him Todd Bates, Ted Roof, Jay Valai, Miguel Chavis, Brandon Hall, Jeff Lebby, and Jerry Schmidt.

Key Departures Offense: QB Caleb Williams, QB Spencer Rattler, RB Kennedy Brooks, WR Jadon Haselwood

Key Departures Defense: DT Perrion Winfrey, DE Isaiah Thomas, LB Nik Bonito, LB Brian Asamoah

Key Additions Offense: QB Dillon Gabriel, OG McKade Mettauer, OT Tyler Guyton, TE Daniel Parker

Key Additions Defense: DT Jeffrey Johnson, DE Jonah Laulu, DB Trey Morrison

With that out of the way sooners are excited, and rightly so, for the start of the 2022 season as there is no other reason to live in the state of Oklahoma besides football. Even with all the departures Riley and Grinch didn't leave the cupboards empty and is still loaded with talent. Venables and a large chunk of the Clemson defensive staff are an immediate upgrade on the defensive side of the ball and should have a noticeable year 1 impact. I still don't like Lebby and he should be blacklisted from the sport but unfortunately he is very good at his job making UCF a national champion and being a large part of Ole Miss being the top offense in the sec. If there is one thing you can get a Texas and Oklahoma fan to agree on besides bolting for the sec is that Bennie Wylie is not a good football s&c guy. Bringing back Jerry Schmidt is huge and should be a huge boon especially along the trenches.

Now onto the part everyone actually cares about, the prediction.

Sep 3: UTEP - Win
This game needs no explanation if Oklahoma loses this game Brent Venables will not be a head coach for long.

Sep 10: Kent State - Win
Much like against UTEP this should be an easy win. One notable thing about this game is that due to the new third tier rights with epsn+ this game will no longer be a paperview game that costs over $50 dollars. Hallelujah!

Sep 17: At Nebraska - Win
Nebraska might be our traditional rival but I have serious doubts about them being any good this year. I believe Oklahoma will be much more disciplined and if the peaks at practice and the spring game we have gotten are anything to go by a much more physical team. If they do lose this game Nebraska is either going to be a decent team or more likely Oklahoma is going to have a terrible season

Sep 24: Kansas State - Win
Kansas State has been a thorn in Oklahoma's side recently and by all accounts they should have a solid team this year. Oklahoma still has a massive talent advantage and should win this game on that alone.

Oct 1: At TCU - Win
I'll be honest I don't know much about this this team but it was one of the few teams Oklahoma looked good against last year.

Oct 8: Texas - Tossup
Its hate week and by all accounts Texas is probably not going to be a good team this year. From everything I have heard Texas will have a historically bad offensive line and Quinn Ewers has not impressed. Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy on the other hand are exceptional players and could overcome these deficits. This game is always a tossup and Texas is theoretically if not in practice is the only team with the same quality of talent on the roster in the big 12.

Oct 15: Kansas - Win
Unlike Texas Oklahoma doesn't lose to Kansas. We might play terribly against them and be embarrassed for 40 minutes but by god they will win this game.

Oct 29: At Iowa State - Win
Iowa State has had some strong showings against Oklahoma recently however this year is a rebuilding year for them and it should be a convincing win.

Nov 5: Baylor - Loss
Baylor should have a very physical and disciplined defense that will be able to give anyone trouble. Aranda seems to like what he sees in Blake Shapen and I have no reason to doubt him as he gave plenty of warning to thier previous starting quarterback who he let transfer early into the off season. Oklahoma could still win this game but if they are going to drop a game it will be this one.

Nov 12: At West Virginia - Win
JT Daniels might have all the talent in the world but he has a history of injuries and losing his starting job including to people named after a hat. I think it will be a hard fought victory but a win none the less.

Nov 19: Oklahoma State - win
OSU lost a bunch of players on the defensive side of the ball including their coordinator to the other OSU. Spencer Sanders should be a good starter yet every year he has regressed slightly instead of improving. This will be a close game and the namesake Bedlam usually applies to this game every year even if Oklahoma still ends up winning 9/10 times.

Nov 26: At Texas Tech - win
Joey McGuire seems to be doing the right things at TTU. Last year this game was one of the few games Oklahoma looked great against and I expect it will take more than one off season with a new head coach to change this.

These predictions have the caveat that Dillon Gabriel must remain healthy year round. For the most part Oklahoma should have enough depth at the other positions to come out okay with the odd injury. I just have little faith with the current QB room beyond Gabriel.

Floor: 9-3
Ceiling: 12-0
Reasonable: 10-2
If Dillon Gabriel gets a season ending injury floor: 7-5


Well I was clearly wrong about the entire season outside the first 3 games and if Dillon Gabriel missed more than 1.5 games this team would easily be 3-9. In my defense when I made this prediction I didn't think that the #2 qb on the team would be the tight end running in wildcat with the punter a close #3.

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