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Hey gang, a bit late, but the season hasn't technically started yet! Let's do some predictions as this wild game we love gets even more money and TV driven. Here's to the death of the NCAA oversight on major CFB, time for the minor leagues (aka the B1G and SEC while everyone else sucks their fumes as they're priced out of competition). I will provide my feelings on the winning probability for each game (W%/L%) and then a best, expected, and worst case scenario for the team. Virginia Tech Hokies  Man oh man, another losing season where we barely made a bowl? Fu is gone, he poo poo all over the place during his time in town and now we're truly rebuilding, but in a brand new landscape that will be way harder to return to our former glory in. That said, what a breath of fresh air Brent Pry has been. The energy (coach speak 101) has been way better from what we've gleaned on social media, the dude has worked hard to repair the relationships in the state, and I think will actually manage to recruit at a high level in a year or two once he has an on field product to show recruits. The team is low on talent, but the lovely staff before managed bowl games, and my expectations aren't much off that still. 6 wins is a minimum, but I don't think Hokie fans will be truly that hurt if the team just bottoms out, we all know what he walked into. 9/2 @ ODU (90/10) - Ah the return to the site of Fu's first major red flag. Going back to the 757 for nominal recruiting and travel cost purposes isn't bad on paper, but man oh man...I can't go as full on the "we will win easily" as I should. This program has some PTSD from that '18 game. They lost their OC right at the start of camp, and its all cast off QBs. It should be an easy paid W, but oof its hard to say with all new everything and the ghosts of Fu haunting some of the players (i know we beat them in 19 no issue, but oof). 9/10 BC (50/50) - They beat us last year p soundly, but this is usually a decent one in terms of chances. It's a rivalry game i won't be upset to leave behind with the new scheduling model next year (even though they're still on it again they wont be a guaranteed play). At least its at home, that helps. 9/17 Wofford (100/0) - No excuse to lose to a not very good FCS team. Get some confidence before the rivalry game the next week. 9/22 WVU (50/50) - Ugh we should have won last year, but the incompetence and lack of talent did us in. JT Daniels is maybe a better QB, I'm not really sure, but I think its another tight rivalry game on a Thursday night in Lane. It'll be a fun one, fingers crossed the Black Diamond Trophy comes home like the Commonwealth Cup, just a brief stay with the wrong team. 10/1 @ UNC (45/55) - I dont think Mack really has it, their defense was so loving bad last year. I mean realistically they have a huge talent advantage, if it plays out that way on the road. Wouldn't surprise me to see us drop it, but I also think this roster knows they can beat them and that matters a bit. Close one imo. 10/8 @ Pitt (30/70) - Yeah I mean I never want to give Narduzzi that much credit, but he's crafted a floor at Pitt that is higher than ours right now. The defense will be stiff, just a question of if they can shread our defense like they have the last few without standout RBs or a QB with a track record. That said it's mid october, so probably have a good grasp on if they've figured it out or not on offense. Just doesn't feel like one we will get this year while Pry figures out the roster and can recruit some more talent in. 10/15 Miami (30/70) - At least its at home, they have more talent, a more established QB and Cristobal has a high floor as a coach with talent to work with. I want this to be a real rivalry again, and despite some ups and downs its been back and forth. Don't expect a W this year, but it would be a good one for him to get. 10/27 @ NCSU (30/70) - Bonus points on the fun/hate factor since 2 of our former coaches are on their staff now, but this is a developed team way further ahead with their coach than ours. Carter Finley is a great time and it'll be a fun time for one team, I just don't think it'll be the Hokies. 11/5 Georgia Tech (70/30) - Man they're bad, they've been bad, their best player left, Collins is ahead on the program timeline side of things I guess, but I just don't see us dropping a game to this squad. They just aren't talented or have anything going on that impresses me. Maybe they are actually better, but 3-9 has been them, and we aren't gonna be that kinda bad. 11/12 @ Duke (60/40) - Elko is a good coach, but that team has no real talent and plays in an empty bowl of a stadium. Should not be losing here with both teams having new staffs. 11/19 @ Liberty (55/45) - Man gently caress this school and us paying to play them and going the hour up the road to em. I want them wiped off the schedule, but that isn't likely. No Malik Willis says to me we should win this, but its late in the season who knows and its not like Hugh Freeze is a bad coach (just a poo poo person). 11/26 @ UVA (95/5) - They still can't beat our worst teams with their best players. Prove it to me that this isn't a sure W and I'll reconsider it. UVA won't have a better defense and the offense will be good, but that O line is scary not great which I think prevents them from being more than mediocre at best. 12/7 ACC Title Game (5/95) - lol no, even with a final year of coastal chaos it won't be us representing, if it is, we've either massively overachieved or everyone else sucked even harder. Best Outcome: 9-3/5-3 ACC - Best possible case scenario is this team wins all the non conference and beats everyone but the clearly better programs on the schedule. This would result in a 3 game losing streak in the middle of the season, but the back end will certainly create the opportunity to close strong. This would prob be good for 2nd or 3rd in the Coastal which would be a huge win. It also means Wells at QB is a huge upgrade and we finally have WRs that make an impact. Defense would also have to take a step forward which with Pry at the helm wouldn't be impossible for him to make something nice out of the scraps he has. Expected Outcome: 6-6/4-4 ACC - Lose to WVU, lose to who you should, and drop one of UNC/BC/or  UVA and that firmly puts you in off to a decent start, but doing what you could with what you had. The team is low on talent, but I think a bowl game is the expectation. There are a lot of programs with the same or worse talent in the division we will be battling with which will make for some toss ups. The team will need all the practices it can get so a bowl game is important in Pry's first year imo.Worst Outcome: 5-7/2-6 ACC - This would be bad, but it would entail beating our instate minor league games, Duke & GT and dropping games to everyone else on the schedule. I suppose it could go one worse (4-8) if Liberty could beat us in November, but I won't be that pessimistic. The margins are going to be tight on this team, and the worst case is bad, but I still don't think its truly truly dire. I could be wrong though, lots of media folks think we're basically the worst team in the ACC above only Duke. Tennessee Volunteers  As predicted Milton wasn't actually a QB and Hendon Hooker from VT took the Vols to excitement and a bowl game. Heupel seems like a good fit for the mess that is generally UTK sports, and most importantly...they were fun to watch again. Win or lose the team was not embarrassed generally and did plenty to get hyped about. Let's not forget we can add now iconic mustard bottles to our wall of identifiable things about the Vols. I dunno if they're really the 2nd best team in the East, but they could be! That's fun we haven't had in a long while 9/1 Ball State (85/15) - Vols gonna score many TDs against them I think. Second year in the 4 verts life I expect big plays, and not a lot of TOP. 9/10 @ Pitt (55/45) - A flip of my prediction from last season where they played a more established program close enough they could have won if Hendon started the game. Their defense will still be tricky, but the QB edge is here esp for a player thats been to lovely Heinz Acrisure whatever the gently caress field before. Should be a good one. 9/17 Akron (85/15) - The Zips occasionally can score I don't really know that much about them, but I feel good this is a comfortable win. 9/24 Florida (45/55) - Florida owns us. 1 win in the last like 15 something years. That said, this Vols team should beat them in a transition year where a lot of the incoming talent won't be there until next year. Can't really give us the edge, but it feels like a good year to get a W against the Gators. 10/8 @ LSU (50/50) - Yeah umm I dunno. LSU has some talent, but they haven't exactly been good and its hard to say how quickly Brian Kelly can get them playing his brand of ball. Feels like a toss up, my prevailing memory of @LSU is Dooley loving up a sure win by substituting when he didn't have to. CHAOS BABY DUMB SEC CHAOS 10/15 Alabama (20/80) - Yeah I don't see us beating Bama, but I think it'll be competitive and fun like last years before it got away from them at the end. They have an actual chance maybe? If it isn't a blow out or an embarrassment I'm okay. 10/22 UT Martin (95/5) - In state FCS NOT IN NOVEMBER BUT LATE OCTOBER HOW DARE WE. Yeah nice W after getting beaten up by the SEC West the prior two weeks. 10/29 Kentucky (50/50) - I really like Stoops and wanted VT to get him, but hey this is now a fun rivalry. Got em last year unexpectedly, so we shall see, but this is a tight competitive game again. 11/5 @ Georgia (20/80) - I mean...like Bama i think we have a slim chance to be surprising, but I don't expect a W esp on the road. 11/12 Mizzou (55/45) - I think we should get a W at home, hung a ton on em last year, so lets see it happen again. 11/19 @ South Carolina (55/45) - I think Shane is gonna get them going, but I think we've still got an edge this year. Rattler will be an upgrade, so I think it'll be tighter, Vols just started with more talent and I think it should carry them. Slight lean for the Vols. 11/26 Vanderbilt (90/10) - Lol Vandy, you don't even have a unique logo anymore. Bad team that will take a good coach a while to drag back to decent. One of the few assured Ws on the schedule I think. Best Outcome 10-2/6-2 SEC - If Heupel wants to strap a rocket to the hype train for this team, becoming the actual 2nd best team in the East is what its going to take. The offense continues to be explosive, the defense tightens up, and the offense can control the ball when they need to. Beat everyone out of conference (taking down a ranked Pitt team with a new QB on the road would be nice) and lose only to the juggernauts. This feels like it would need a lot of injury and other luck to pull off, but given they got to 7 and were close to 8 or 9 wins last year, I think year 2 could produce a big jump. Expected Outcome 8-4/5-3 SEC - I feel like they're gonna manage 8 wins. Maybe they beat Pitt and lose to someone in conference they maybe shouldn't later, or they lose to Pitt but find an extra W somewhere against Florida/LSU/Kentucky. A bowl game should be a given. This would mean the offense is just a bit better than last year, but still manages to disappear at a critical point or two and the defense while better isn't good enough to really hold up over the entire season. Worst Outcome 6-6/3-5 SEC - I think that if things go badly (Hendon gets injured), the defense doesn't really improve, and it just continues to be classic Vols luck (for me as a fan) it likely means dropping every game thats a toss up and needing a run in November to make a bowl game. This would be hurtful, but hopefully if the team is exciting and there are reasons for the let down, it could be a good springboard to next year. Year 3 is where we should really expect things from this staff and team. This would be bad, but not so bad that I think there would be major cause for concern. If the floor is a bowl game, we're doing okay. What do y'all have for your teams? Optimism springs eternal in this thread for a snap hasn't happened yet. Better late than never i suppose to get those predictions up. The Notorious ZSB fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Aug 25, 2022 |
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Aug 25, 2022 00:39
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dirty shrimp money posted:Other conferences - lol they're in the same division, fair though that might be about who really gets a shot to win the conference. next year with the new scheduling you could be right!
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Aug 25, 2022 15:17
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dirty shrimp money posted:oops, fixed Being an ACC football fan is basically being a degenerate can't blame anyone for missing that.
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Aug 26, 2022 23:50
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So glad y'all brought this back to reflect on  Virginia Tech posted:Worst Outcome: 5-7/2-6 ACC - This would be bad, but it would entail beating our instate minor league games, Duke & GT and dropping games to everyone else on the schedule. I suppose it could go one worse (4-8) if Liberty could beat us in November, but I won't be that pessimistic. The margins are going to be tight on this team, and the worst case is bad, but I still don't think its truly truly dire. I could be wrong though, lots of media folks think we're basically the worst team in the ACC above only Duke. VT - wow didn't think it would get that bad, but WOOF it was very very loving bad. That said, if they close out any of their 1 pt losses this team goes bowling so they weren't as "far off" as the record sort of looks. That said, there wasn't much to be excited about moving forward (beyond D scheme which felt good?) but I'm going to reserve judgment on the staff until after next year as it appears they're going to overhaul the roster (which is needed). VT only managed 1 ACC win and we didn't play UVA (sensibly so) so I guess this year we are the worst team in the ACC. WTF. I still appreciated finally getting it together to beat Liberty, gently caress Liberty. Elko did do the coaching job of the year getting 8 wins out of that Duke roster, just amazing poo poo. Tennessee posted:Best Outcome 10-2/6-2 SEC - If Heupel wants to strap a rocket to the hype train for this team, becoming the actual 2nd best team in the East is what its going to take. The offense continues to be explosive, the defense tightens up, and the offense can control the ball when they need to. Beat everyone out of conference (taking down a ranked Pitt team with a new QB on the road would be nice) and lose only to the juggernauts. This feels like it would need a lot of injury and other luck to pull off, but given they got to 7 and were close to 8 or 9 wins last year, I think year 2 could produce a big jump. Vols - I nailed the record, just not the 2nd loss. That said I think I mostly nailed it, offense was mostly a more efficient explosive version of year 1, the defense had things it was good at until it forgot how to play USCe, and they were solidly the 2nd best team in the SEC East and arguably the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference (CFP rankings got it wrong, I wanted the Sugar Bowl drat it). The Notorious ZSB fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Dec 6, 2022 |
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Dec 6, 2022 18:42
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