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Knowing what I know about the cretins my state produces, I don't get how so many are coming to the conclusion he doesn't run again.
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Aug 26, 2022 16:36
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Good thread, bookmarked. Thanks OP
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Aug 26, 2022 17:38
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I'm gonna win OP. I've been practicing real hard and I really feel that this is my year.
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Aug 26, 2022 19:11
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mags posted:my prediction: poopoo pee caca fart and doo doo 
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Aug 26, 2022 21:19
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I didn't include anything in the OP about the 36 gubernatorial elections this year or state legislatures, even though these are increasingly important races when it comes to abortion, which is now controlled at the state level, as well as entire sectors regulated at the state level from insurance to education.
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Aug 26, 2022 22:53
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Warren/Gabbard ticket called the Red-Brown Alliance 2022.
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Aug 27, 2022 00:00
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the october surprise will the biden admin using the strong arm of the federal government to legalize weed and abortion nationwide. as a result the dems will hold on to the house by, like, 2 or 3 seats. joe biden will be rejuvenated by the win, run in 2024 and win
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Aug 28, 2022 02:29
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Grevling posted:Warren/Gabbard ticket called the Red-Brown Alliance 2022. Who's the red and who's the brown? 
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Aug 28, 2022 02:32
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The Voice of Labor posted:the october surprise will the biden admin using the strong arm of the federal government to legalize weed and abortion nationwide. as a result the dems will hold on to the house by, like, 2 or 3 seats. joe biden will be rejuvenated by the win, run in 2024 and win Biden would sooner lose the presidency in a Mondaleesque blowout than ease up federal laws on the devil weed one iota. My predictions: House: Flips to GOP Senate: Dems hold. Oz and Walker have proven themselves so underwhelming that the Dems may gain a seat or two. 2024: Joe runs again. Bernie tries to primary Joe, fails. GOP win if Trump runs. Less certain GOP win if DeSantis runs. Tossup if it’s anybody else. Massive, humiliating Dem loss if Liz Cheney runs. Chaos predictions: Lincoln/Anti-Trumper Republicans make an earnest and initially semi-successful attempt at starting a GOP successor party. It doesn’t quite take and is absorbed into the Democrats. Obergefell and possibly Lawrence get overturned.
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Aug 29, 2022 00:33
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looks like Vote Blue No Matter Who is running 5 percentage points behind Vote Red or We'll Be Dead this year: from the cbsnews poll released today
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Aug 29, 2022 00:42
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dems being dems and boosting another far-right candidate, this time in NH:quote:Democrats are once again meddling in a GOP primary — this time in a competitive New Hampshire House district, with the goal of elevating a far-right candidate over a moderate backed by GOP Gov. Chris Sununu. Let's see how that play is working out in CO: quote:Democrats sought to bolster Mr. Bennet’s chances through backdoor advertising on behalf of hard-right, MAGA-embracing candidates in the Republican primary who would most likely have been weaker adversaries with little chance of being embraced by the state’s unaffiliated voters, now the largest voting bloc in Colorado. Bennet has 8x the money that O'Dea was, and CO has trended blue for more than a decade so I don't think he's in danger of losing his seat, but dang, did they ever hear of unintended consequences? I guess that doesn't matter when there's fundraising to be held to fight the terrors that dems are boosting to run against.
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Aug 30, 2022 20:27
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Is vermin supreme running in 2024?
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Aug 31, 2022 00:12
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Charlie Crist will singlehandedly destroy the democrats' party in 2022, and the people who refused to vote for either republican candidate for governor will take 100% of the blame in The Discourse
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Aug 31, 2022 19:03
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Lib and let die posted:Charlie Crist will singlehandedly destroy the democrats' party in 2022, and the people who refused to vote for either republican candidate for governor will take 100% of the blame in The Discourse why are you trying to make me like him
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Aug 31, 2022 19:09
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Some polling that is probably outlier stuff, but could be potential wild cards: Susquehanna has Deming in spitting distance from Rubio (47R-44D) and Crist from DeSantis (50R-47D). Fabrizio/Anzalone, on behalf of AARP, has similar nos.: Rubio 49-47 and DeSantis 50-47. Trafalgar Group, a GOP polling outfit but rated A- by 538, has Tiffany Smiley only 3 points behind Sen. Patty Murray in Washington. Smiley says she's pro-life but would oppose a federal abortion ban. PPP (Dem polling outfit, also A-) has Murray up +9. Joe O'Dea, who's running against Michael Bennet in Colorado, is about as pro-choice as you might find in today's GOP, i.e.: on the same page as most conservative Democrats. Colorado has been pretty solidly blue since the Obama years, but having spent a lot of time there I'm going to say there's still a purple streak in them thar hills. PPP had Bennet +11 last month, while Trafalgar had him at a much-closer +5. Bennet will likely win but I'm keeping an eye on this race. It's gonna be a wild couple months.
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Sep 8, 2022 04:02
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good morning, friday morning, from willa's midterms blog. another poll, this time by insideradvantage on behalf of a FL news outlet, has demings within spitting distance of rubio at -2, 46-44. same poll has desantis up over crist by 5 pts. I would've thought that rubio's seat was safer than desantis's, given the latter's press over the last couple years.
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Sep 9, 2022 17:09
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Willa Rogers posted:good morning, friday morning, from willa's midterms blog. DeSantis energizes his base way more than lil’ Marco and probably depends on DeSantis’s coattails. As alienating as DeSantis is he’s really inspiring if you’re open to the slop he’s shoveling out in that he’s actually doing things (horrible pointless things but flashy nonetheless) and he’s also owning the libs which… 
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Sep 9, 2022 17:13
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desantis also did a better job of keeping the olds alive thru covid than many northern democrat governors did, probably bc they're his primary constituency.
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Sep 9, 2022 17:44
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2024: Republicans push about 10 primary candidates and hype them to hell and back and then Trump demolishes them all.
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Sep 9, 2022 17:45
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Willa Rogers posted:desantis also did a better job of keeping the olds alive thru covid than many northern democrat governors did, probably bc they're his primary constituency. X doubt
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Sep 9, 2022 17:45
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Zerg Mans posted:X doubt Yeah I mean everywhere is lying about real Covid numbers but everything about Florida tells me they’re like the king of the hill. So yeah maybe he kept it under wraps more than northern govs I can believe that
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Sep 9, 2022 17:47
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Willa Rogers posted:desantis also did a better job of keeping the olds alive thru covid than many northern democrat governors did, probably bc they're his primary constituency. lmao
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Sep 9, 2022 17:50
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nah, it's true, and taken from the cms nursing-home data, which was reported directly to the feds from nursing homes & bypassed state reporting. counterintuitive, I know, but true nevertheless. the northern states were death camps for the olds, bc they allowed the owners of private nursing homes (ie: donors) write the executive orders that did poo poo like provide overly broad immunity for negligence + suspended state inspections.
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Sep 9, 2022 17:53
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before you all go succ & accuse me of kissing desantis on the lips & wanting to marry him, as dnd did when I pointed out that desantis did one good thing bc of political expediency, read thru my posts in the dnd covid thread bc I put forth the data there.
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Sep 9, 2022 17:56
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the elderly in Florida tend to live not in nursing homes because it's a place you retire to and then die in your terrible The Villages bungalow
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Sep 9, 2022 17:57
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Willa Rogers posted:desantis also did a better job of keeping the olds alive thru covid than many northern democrat governors did, probably bc they're his primary constituency. lol
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Sep 9, 2022 17:59
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Relevant Tangent posted:the elderly in Florida tend to live not in nursing homes because it's a place you retire to and then die in your terrible The Villages bungalow This doesn’t seem right. I mean yes, lots of people retire to Florida, especially people with money, but they still get to the point where they need to be in assisted living or long term memory care or the like and they aren’t shipping them back up north when that happens. People capable of living independently don’t usually end up in these places regardless of geographic region But idk and if the numbers say that nursing homes did better I guess I’m not going to argue, although I do think it’s evident Florida was gaming Covid fatility numbers even harder than other states in general
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Sep 9, 2022 18:01
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there was one governor who was investigated & found to be covering up the deaths of olds in nursing homes & who it was might surprise you!
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Sep 9, 2022 18:05
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Willa Rogers posted:there was one governor who was investigated & found to be covering up the deaths of olds in nursing homes & who it was might surprise you! Lol nah not at all, but part of that I think was that the machine was starting to turn against him, and I think that investigation in retrospect was the first cracks showing through and not uniquely bad behavior by our favorite man/woman/lesbian/Muslim/trans person/molester
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Sep 9, 2022 18:08
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HashtagGirlboss posted:But idk and if the numbers say that nursing homes did better I guess I’m not going to argue, although I do think it’s evident Florida was gaming Covid fatility numbers even harder than other states in general as I said, these were deaths reported directly to the feds from nursing homes, who rely on federal money. the one caveat is that the direct reporting didn't begin till july 2020, so desantis certainly could have jiggered the nos. before then, but allover the northern states that let the industry write the rules killed way more olds; I think for the first six months of the pandemic like 60 percent of PA deaths were olds in nursing homes & 80 percent in MN. I have to go touch grass now, but I'll try to find some more stats later about total deaths among olds by state.
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Sep 9, 2022 18:09
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HashtagGirlboss posted:This doesn’t seem right. I mean yes, lots of people retire to Florida, especially people with money, but they still get to the point where they need to be in assisted living or long term memory care or the like and they aren’t shipping them back up north when that happens. People capable of living independently don’t usually end up in these places regardless of geographic region the vast majority of americans die in the community rather than at an assisted living home, pride is extremely real, six and a half percent total live in nursing homes and assisted living combined there's only ~72k floridians living in nursing homes I couldn't find good numbers on assisted living but if florida is like the rest of america it's about half as many people as live in nursing homes so call it another ~32k
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Sep 9, 2022 18:12
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Relevant Tangent posted:the vast majority of americans die in the community rather than at an assisted living home, pride is extremely real, six and a half percent total live in nursing homes and assisted living combined Sure, but is this more or fewer per capita than other states is the question Willa Rogers posted:as I said, these were deaths reported directly to the feds from nursing homes, who rely on federal money. I agree with you that northern states were completely malfeasant and that the laws that gave blanket immunity were bullshit. No doubt. I just question how much we can trust Florida’s record keeping and certification. I believe Florida has a state run medical examiners office rather than local elected coroners, which each can be bad in different ways, but the certified numbers are still coming from policy set by that office for determine cause of death, right? Anyway, I’m not at all saying I think the northern states did better, just skeptical that Florida wasn’t pulling some bullshit
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Sep 9, 2022 18:23
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Willa Rogers posted:desantis also did a better job of keeping the olds alive thru covid than many northern democrat governors did, probably bc they're his primary constituency. wasn't he just juicing up anybody willing to stand in line on monoclonals because he had a bunch of stock or was on the board or some poo poo
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Sep 9, 2022 18:26
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one has to be a special type of rube to believe anything desantis or his goons say
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Sep 9, 2022 19:19
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turn florida into one giant nursing home let em fly jets out of pensacola and run airboats in the everglades
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Sep 9, 2022 19:20
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my 2024 prediction is that trump’s hamberder-laden heart finally gives out but only after he’s obliterated all challengers, so like sometime that summer. chaos proceeds to reign dems are I dunno gavin newsom/some midwestern safe pick, like tina smith or something
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Sep 9, 2022 19:26
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:one has to be a special type of rube to believe anything desantis or his goons say  you thought biden made a good speech last week.
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Sep 9, 2022 19:29
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be back later, now I've got to go touch sand.
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Sep 9, 2022 19:30
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Willa Rogers posted:
his favorables went up, yeah? i didn't bother watching
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Sep 9, 2022 20:06
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*A Note on My Methodology* We are in a new reality. The old ways are irrelevant. Polls are misleading and exaggerate how well Democrats will do. This is amplified by the fact that these are midterm elections. Therefore I am taking forecasts like Nate Silver's and deducting roughly 5-10% percentage points from the Democrats, depending on the race. In addition, outcomes of elections can no longer be assumed by announcements from the media - outcomes can only be determined by the final certification. Before certification there are going to be unprecedented levels of litigation which will end up in the hands of corrupt judges. I am going to deduct a few extra points from the Democrats for this reason. Predictions, final & unchanged as of 9/9/22 (going on a politics hiatus until late October, I hope): - The GOP will win the House 242-203 - The GOP will win the Senate 52-48 - Donald Trump will announce his candidacy for president on January 6th, 2023. Joe Biden will fall down the stairs or something and not run again for president. Kamala Harris will run but due to her low popularity will have some serious contenders.
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Sep 9, 2022 21:20
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