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some brave predictions, Mokelumne Trekka!Relevant Tangent posted:his favorables went up, yeah? i didn't bother watching the greatest jump was after the student-loan announcement, and even then as of today, after both his speech & loan forgiveness, he's still running -11.8 on RCP (caveat: includes rasmussen), the "highest" his approval's been since the halcyon days of May 15, 2022. 538 has him at -10.6 approval, but that includes rasmussen, too. biden's approvals haven't been above water for over a year now, lol.
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Sep 9, 2022 22:13
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| # ? May 9, 2024 20:08 |
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Two new AZ polls out for governor & u.s. senator: Emerson: Kelly +2 for senate; Hobbs +1 for governor InsiderAdvantage: Kelly +6; governor a tie As of a month ago, Kelly was +10 in 538's aggregate.
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Sep 9, 2022 22:20
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GOP wins House and Senate in 2022 in a last minute surprise when the economy pops.
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Sep 9, 2022 22:30
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polling has amped up post-labor day; lots of new data. Most polls are switching to a likely-voters screen this close to the election. Alaska U.S. Senate: Tshibaka (R) leading Murkowski (R) by 8 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate: Last few polls have Oz within 4-5 points of the Fetman; they debate on Oct. 25. Georgia U.S. Senate: Quinnipac has Warnock +6 over Walker, a change from other recent polls that show Walker slightly leading. Wisconsin U.S. Senate: Continues to be an extremely tight race. Nevada U.S. Senate: Also extremely tight; Cortez Masto has lost a lot of ground over the past few months. It's now been 2.5 months since Roe was overturned, and I'm not seeing those effects on the polling that dems were predicting; we're seven weeks out from election day.
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Sep 15, 2022 21:38
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looks like it's comin' up trump
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Sep 15, 2022 23:39
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"Overall, 91% of Trump's candidates won their open primaries, and 4 of 10 challengers topped incumbents."--npr
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Sep 16, 2022 00:27
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1570739530323599361
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Sep 16, 2022 15:01
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Here's the non-paywalled crosstabs for that Siena poll. Note that it's registered voters rather than likely voters but narrowing Biden's approval gap to -11 in two months across the same poll is good news for Biden; that's a change of +9 as noted by Cohn.
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Sep 18, 2022 16:37
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lolquote:AUSTIN — Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has gained on Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the high-stakes race for Texas governor and now has a 9-point cushion, up from 7 points last month.
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Sep 19, 2022 21:59
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Which seat will Beto run for and lose in 2024?
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Sep 19, 2022 22:04
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Nichael posted:Which seat will Beto run for and lose in 2024? Delaware comptroller
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Sep 19, 2022 22:06
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lmao i had no idea beto was thinking about a gubernatorial run e: oh, oh my god, he's actually doing it, hahahaha JAY ZERO SUM GAME has issued a correction as of 22:46 on Sep 19, 2022 |
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Sep 19, 2022 22:40
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JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:lmao i had no idea beto was thinking about a gubernatorial run "Thinking"? He was born to be in it!
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Sep 19, 2022 22:43
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JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:lmao i had no idea beto was thinking about a gubernatorial run Running losing campaigns in high profile races pays really nicely
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Sep 19, 2022 22:48
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https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1572031585616277505
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Sep 20, 2022 03:07
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yah, barnes is my wild card for the dems holding the senate if kelly & cortez masto lose (which I think they will). if biden's approvals hold, he might make it under -10 for the first time since march 2022. 
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Sep 20, 2022 03:41
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Willa Rogers posted:yah, barnes is my wild card for the dems holding the senate if kelly & cortez masto lose (which I think they will). I don't think Kelly is going to lose to Blake the Nazi lol
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Sep 20, 2022 05:04
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Spergin Morlock posted:I don't think Kelly is going to lose to Blake the Nazi lol I do. 
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Sep 20, 2022 05:07
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Just thinking about how Prefon is going to end up with a Republican governor and lmao at the useless libs
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Sep 23, 2022 23:30
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three weeks till election day! kelly is still leading in most AZ polls for the senate race:   but I still think he's going to lose.   for cortez masto imo:  PA senate races has tightened considerably; the fetman was +10 two months ago:   rubio looks to be pretty safe against deming, in spite of her closing the gap as of a couple months ago. a dem pickup could happen in NC:   I don't know wtf the result will be in GA or WI; they've both been tied in polling for a while now. Willa Rogers has issued a correction as of 03:42 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 19:01
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https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318 oh dear
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Oct 22, 2022 19:17
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Kelly will win but NV and I’m thinking GA will flip. and fetterman wins that’s still going to mean GOP takes the senate
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Oct 25, 2022 08:24
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Of all the races I think Ohio annoys me the most. Tim Ryan is going to lose which lol good gently caress that piece of poo poo, but also JD Vance is going to be so loving insufferable. At least Walker will be funny
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Oct 25, 2022 12:56
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predikkktions from the demokkkrats thread:joepinetree posted:Updating my prediction from earlier in the thread: Facehammer posted:Based on nothing but gut feeling: Mind_Taker posted:Republicans are going to have 54 Senate seats and 240 House seats. Grandpa Palpatine posted:literally the worst that's going to happen is Cortez-Masto is gonna lose yet Fetterman wins to make up for it, 50-50 senate
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Nov 6, 2022 19:46
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spacemang_spliff posted:GOP wins house handily I'm going to amend this to GOP also takes the Senate by 1 at least
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Nov 6, 2022 19:49
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Yeah, I probably lowballed the gop senate chances in the OP; it's looking a lot dire for dems now.
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Nov 6, 2022 19:52
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Willa Rogers posted:predikkktions from the demokkkrats thread: Ty for posting my prediction here. i don’t have faith in democrats to do much but I do have faith in them blowing it in hilarious fashion
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Nov 6, 2022 19:52
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Kelly will win Seconding this
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Nov 6, 2022 20:02
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last call.
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Nov 8, 2022 02:29
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Nov 9, 2022 12:19
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hearing reports that the demokkkrats will be destroyed in 2024
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Nov 9, 2022 18:20
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trump loses the popular vote for the third and final time, but he was running as a democrat, the prophecy is fulfilled
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Nov 9, 2022 19:51
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Trump converting back to Democrat and destroying that party too would be pretty great, would be hard to pull off but Americans are dumb as poo poo
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Nov 9, 2022 20:06
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spacemang_spliff posted:I'm going to amend this to GOP also takes the Senate by 1 at least I should have stuck with my original prediction
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Nov 9, 2022 20:30
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Relevant Tangent posted:trump loses the popular vote for the third and final time, but he was running as a democrat, the prophecy is fulfilled 
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Nov 9, 2022 20:31
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desantis
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Nov 10, 2022 19:10
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Spergin Morlock posted:I don't think Kari Lake will be AZ gov, and Kelly will definitely be retaining his seat in the Senate bam
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Nov 15, 2022 04:10
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trumo goes 3rd party, chaos reigns
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Nov 16, 2022 09:47
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even with betsy johnson splitting the vote, kotek barely got the oregon governor position
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Nov 16, 2022 20:19
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| # ? May 9, 2024 20:08 |
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Every one of Johnson's votes came from people who would have otherwise voted Kotek or stayed home and she still won by four percent.
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Nov 16, 2022 22:01
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