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Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

A bakery actually opened back up nearby but it’s gonna have a
all the same problems the last people had with it.
C'mon, dude, you gotta try harder than that while trolling.

Ok, kayfabe:

Pray tell, goon sir, what problems did it have? And why won't you have these problems?

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Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

Then I think I’ll also sell some stuff dirt cheap for the people like dollar drip, dollar raised glazed, loss leaders I think they’re called. I want people to come by every day and not just on payday.
He's going to lose money on every sale, but don't worry, he's going to make it up in volume.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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ilmucche posted:

question for OP:

When did you get your avatar there

I think it's both from the future and mistranslated into English. It should read "I am absolutely penniless."

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Uhhh I think the most important part is just to do a lot of business lol

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Whoever bought you the new avatar put more thought and effort into it than you have your new business venture. For example, they actually made a donut, even if it's only a .GIF.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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try more magnesium posted:

OP donut you dare abandon this thread it has so much potential
FTFY

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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It's been brought up before, but are you even going to try to get hired at a donut place, bakery, etc., so you will have some idea of what sort of hellish half-life awaits you from 1am-6pm every day? Or what the volumes and workload will be like? (Or, more precisely, what you hope they'll be like?)

BTW what will working a split shift like that do to your marriage? Or is that in the "worry about later" pile too?


Also BTW if you go through with this you dumb bastard you better make and serve both maple bars and lemon glazed old fashioneds. Those are both ambrosia.


My prediction/lame thread joke: in a few months, you'll be saying, "Those goons were right when they torus a new one!"

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

For the record I never said it would be simple or easy, just that I can do it. Maybe I’m not the baddest man alive but I been fuckin his old lady and he knows about it.

Is there a dough skill threshold to look for before I start trying to fry?

Have you got any specific recommendations for a sheeter/roller?

Jesus Christ, dude, no one is recommending that you give up your day job to go work at Krispy Kreme for the rest of your life, just that a week’s employment there would teach you way more than you could learn from all these scattershot questions on this dead gay forum

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Tarnop posted:

The Doughring-Cruller Effect

:emptyquote:

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

I’m trying to design my espresso bar by visiting coffee shops but they’ve all been catastrophically slow.
Maybe there's a hidden message here for you. Why are you going to be any different?

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Powerful Katrinka posted:

I'm curious where the confidence comes from that you're going to consistently sell 500 espresso drinks a day. There was a coffee shop right in the middle of several government and private business centers that did brisk business and regularly had a line to the door, and I'm not sure they sold that many espresso drinks a day. They also had tea and regular coffee, so they probably did 500 drinks a day total. It was a prime location, in a building connected to three massive office buildings, it took less than two minutes for me to walk from my desk to the counter. Incredibly convenient, and almost always busy. They still struggled, then closed with Covid

The shop is still empty, even though the offices have opened. Covid has changed a few things, like work from home; our union demanded permanent WFH options in our last contract negotiation and won. The only businesses in that center that avoided shutting down were the dollar store and the pizza place. Anyway, I don't see how a suburb with a median income of 41K is going to buy 500 espresso drinks a day, when a popular coffee shop in a convenient, densely-packed, urban business center didn't do numbers like that
When posts like this don't help, there's nothing to do besides piss in the well. I have to admire OP's confidence, but if he'd just use like 1% of that energy into creating a business plan to see what his projected revenue would need to be, then he'd get some idea of how crazy this plan looks.

Hopefully, OP is familiar with sunk cost fallacy and doesn't justify moving forward based on all the poo poo he's bought already. Best case scenario is that he's been trolling the whole time.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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I never thought I would write these words, but where is Zaurg to save us from this mediocre troll?

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

I can buy another rental house and net 6k/yr or I can use that same money to try and net 6k/wk. I understand this is a risky bet but I’m not getting any younger so if I’m ever gonna make a move it better be soon.
A. How many cups of coffee and how many donuts would you need to sell in a week to net $1K (let's start with a reasonable number, shall we?)? How many is that by day? (Hint: you can't just divide by 7, because your traffic is going to be different M-F vs. Sat vs. Sun. (Probably different M vs. T vs. W vs. R vs. F too, but let's keep it simple.) Is that a reasonable number, given demographics, traffic, population, etc.? These are things a business plan would tell you.

B. How much income justifies working these batshit crazy hours? Is it $52K a year? $78K? $104K? Don't forget to account for the fact you're probably going to get screwed on taxes due to self-employment taxes. (I am not an accountant so don't take my advice, but you should consider talking to one, just like you should have already talked to a lawyer to make this an S Corp or something. Not a lawyer either; don't know the right corporation type but I'm assuming you like living in your house and don't want to have to move out if you get sued and lose badly.)

C. If you're not getting any younger, then why are you trying to put yourself into donut slavery? Couldn't you do something like pivot into general contracting or something that takes advantage of your experience in the trades?

D. Is this a risky bet? How do you know? You haven't sat down with a spreadsheet, let alone become a spreadsheet nerd, what are the risks?

E. You said you're making $36 an hour at what sounds like irregular hours. For the sake of argument, let's say you can clear $1K net a week working 10-12 hours a day 6 days a week (we'll be super generous and say that you can take Saturdays off, even though you can't). Is that a worthwhile tradeoff for someone who wants to spend more time with their kids? Doesn't sound like it to me.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

So I’m planning for the business to pay for itself in the first year and pay me in the second year and then the whole family after that.

That's what the business plan says.

code:
Year 1: sell enough donuts to earn enough profit to pay for business.
Year 2: sell enough donuts to earn enough profit to pay for business and Rationale.
Year 3: sell enough donuts to earn enough profit to pay for business, Rational, and family.
Year 4+: sell enough donuts to earn enough profit to continue exponential growth

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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socketwrencher posted:

Yeah I wonder about drive-thru. Out my way it seems like people are lazy as hell and they'll wait 10-20 minutes and even longer at places like In-N-Out, so I'm inclined to think drive-thru could be a draw. The OP may also be overestimating demand so it may not be 10-20 cars lined up even during the busiest times but more like 3-10. I'd even venture that most of his business would be drive-thru but who knows.

Who the hell is waiting 10-20 minutes for donuts? Is this 1996 and Krispy Kreme signs are new and popping up everywhere?

I think it's a safe bet that "OP may be overestimating demand." This might in fact be the understatement of the year on SA 2022.

Do Dunks or Tim Horton's or other lower-end drip-and-donut places do much business through drive-through? I've mostly only seen them in urban settings, so I don't know if they have big drive-through business in the burbs. But that's what OP should be looking at, not In-N-Out, as a comparison.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

54 cars in ten minutes

A car every eleven-twelve seconds? I'm no traffic engineer, but this does not sound like a very busy location.

What percentage of those cars would have to stop to earn you 37.5% of your daily target profit? (I'm saying half of 75% -- half because we'll be generous and say that half your rush hour business will come from people driving out of their way to buy donuts, and 75% because you'll get most of your revenue from rush hour; it won't be spread throughout the day, of course.) If that percentage is higher than 1% (and even that is generous), then your numbers are hosed.

(Do 1% of the people driving past McDonalds or Dunks stop in? Probably not. But note they're on high-traffic streets, because their owners are forced to do business plans by the franchising agreement. Irrelevant tangent, because being on a less-busy street is unlikely to get you a significantly higher % of cars stopping in. Am I sounding like a spreadsheet nerd? Tough. Successful businesses are run on numbers, not on gut feelings.)

Of course, you only spent 10 minutes during one rush hour looking at traffic and counting cars, said good enough, and bagged it, probably because it was cutting into your time looking for vent hoods at auction. I mean, gently caress it and yolo, it's not like this property has any intrinsic value other than as a donut hut.

Finally, did you do it today? If so, why are your numbers invalid? There's a very good reason why they are.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Thank you for your service

o7

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Have you gotten a quote to grade and pave that lot for parking and a drive through? How much does that cost? I have no idea. You need to find out, because it doesn't matter how cheap your donuts are, no one is going to drive up around a grass perimeter to get to them.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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In Seattle, local chain Top Pot has started making their seasonal egg nog glazed donuts. They are loving delicious, even though they're cake donuts. Just wanted to report that.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Powerful Katrinka posted:

"Self-rising dough" isn't a thing. There's self-rising flour, which is called that because its leaveners are already added. I beg of you, if nothing else, to learn what things are, and what they're called

I'm sorry, do you expect us to listen to you, someone with professional baking experience, or a goon who can make "-generally- good" dough-nuts that are jumped upon by Thanksgiving goers, a notoriously temperate and recalcitrant bunch when it comes to delectables, in quantities approaching almost a dozen?

Did you not hear? But a mere two months of this and he has already reached "-generally- good" quality in his product! The dough-nut revolution is nigh! I bid you good day, sir/ma'am/whatever is appropriate, I said good day!

Rationale, I apologize, the cheek of this malcontent, it's preposterous. Please continue as you were, you magnificent maestro of morning munchies!

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Try launching with this product, Rationale. We believe in you!

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Tnuctip posted:

OP have you applied for a liquor license yet?

Speaking of liquor, Blue Star used to make a donut with a Cointreau glaze that came with an ampoule of Cointreau that you'd squeeze into the filling of your donut just before you ate it. Given my issues with drinking, I would throw the ampoule away, but the donut was divine -- taste and texture of the glaze mixed with the crème filling was >chef's kiss<. They also had a lemon poppyseed donut that was impossibly good. Unfortunately, sometime around the beginning of Covid, they went to a reduced menu and neither were offered anymore, at least at the locations I stopped in on my trips through Portland back in 2020. (Haven't been back through since.)

I never used to like donuts. It took moving to Seattle and trying Top Pot on a recommendation to get me to like donuts. Then Blue Star made me love donuts. Will Rationalized Donuts make me move to Ohio so I can hook myself up to a Homer-in-Hell-style donut feeding machine?

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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You're in ruralish Ohio, or at least on the far outskirts of one of the cities?

How about surfing that red wave with Let's Dough Brandon

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

Once the shop is making me money hand over fist
In your low-income area where people don't seem to be able to afford donuts and coffee as a regular thing (am I misremembering $40K household income?), where the bakery folded because they were in a bad location (e.g., not in a dirt parking lot), where the Perkins went under (because the strain of meeting the franchising overhead was too much, IIRC, which should tell you something about your customer base), and you still haven't really made any donuts (the batch of 12 "sorta good" donuts that people picked over at Thanksgiving doesn't count)...

I feel like I've invested more time and energy thinking about this 'business' than you have.

Dude, you've got to do something to test real demand for your product before you set all that money on fire. Food truck (expensive but not as expensive as blinging out your murdershack), baking at home then selling (not giving away, selling) them somewhere else, commissary kitchen, whatever. If you can make good product AND you can sell in good quantities, then you can move forward. You're trying to land on the moon without sending up John Glenn to orbit the earth first, and without commercial baking experience (or a plan to get anything like it) you're trying to build your launch vehicles without any Operation: Paperclip Nazi rocket scientists.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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He got a burn permit for all his cash.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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CubicalSucrose posted:

Also how much have you spent on this project already? $15k of your $75k? How much more do you "realistically" expect to shell out before you open for business?
That sounds like spreadsheet nerd talk. OP doesn't have time for that! He's a man of action. *swoon*

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

It’ll work or it won’t and it doesn’t depend on my homework grade which one it is

If only there were some way to judge whether it was likely to succeed before spending a shitload of money on it...oh well, put this inheritance on 17 black and let it ride!

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

Business is whatever keeps you busy

If you don't charge for it, it's a hobby.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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LanceHunter posted:

This is how the place looked:


Excuse me, but where is the "I could get killed at any moment in this place" ambiance? gently caress you for trying to fancify OP's dream donut delivery experience! There's no room for frills like "a likely murder-free experience" or "no fear of getting stuck by a used needle" if OP's gonna be stacking cash like he plans wants to.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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coconono posted:

I just wanna know when he’s gonna pave his parking lot

He just needs to visit 3-4 more junk auctions at defunct strip joints/pizza parlors to buy crap he doesn't need and then he'll be be good to go.

Hey OP, you know what adds class to any donut store? A High Life pool table lamp so impregnated with cigarette smoke that even the clear parts have turned also turned beige.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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I got the tude now posted:

You can’t post someone else’s food and say I’m zerod in on a concept uih dumb motherfucjer!!!!!

He is zeroed in on a concept, you dumb motherfucker!!!!!

He's going to make stacks selling donuts out of his murder shack without somehow actually doing anything except spending money on secondhand equipment and bar stools and eventually at this rate he's going to be dancing on all of our graves and it's all your loving fault for mocking him when he had a dream!!!!!


Seriously, Rationale, you're thinking you've spent all this money on stuff and pros, you can't back now. There are a lot of ways to marke a living that don't involve being apart from your family from 4am-4pm seven days a week. Just read this, please: https://www.google.com/search?q=sunk+cost+fallacy+definition

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

I sure hope the two-ingredient donuts i made last fall don’t get on the menu they were like, mediocre

I think any donuts on any menu would be a step forward

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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A+ troll, would get griefed again by OP

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Top Pot donuts here in Seattle offers Ovaltine lattes and Ovaltine-flavored donuts. OP, you can have those business ideas for free to dream about.

Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Lifehack: every day you don't make donuts is a day you postpone your dreams and ambitions

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Admiralty Flag
Jun 7, 2007

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Rationale posted:

Simple isn’t always easy

There’s the guy who carried a calf up the hill every day til it was a bull and then he went to town and kicked everyone’s rear end so hard he got famous.

He didn’t write asskicking plans he just worked on kicking rear end until it was time to kick rear end and then he kicked a bunch of rear end.

His name was Milo of Kroton.

He was a professional athlete, competing in the Olympic games, among other contests of strength and skill. Carrying the calf was his plan to get better at his business, being an athlete, by building his strength. You could almost say it was his...plan of business.

And of course to be a several-time winner at the Olympic Games you had to do more than be strong. You had to know how to wrestle, for example. No amount of carrying a calf on your back's gonna teach you that. It's almost like any endeavor requires knowledge of and repeated practice in multiple aspects of something.

Anyway, I'm missing the point. What's the calf you're carrying? Posting about making donuts? How's that preparing you for the "time to kick rear end" so you can then "kick a bunch of rear end?"

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