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Herstory Begins Now posted:you are misinterpreting what forecast means in this context, the product that forecast produces is a probability range of where the hurricane is likely to go, it at no point produces a specific forecasted track you seem to be projecting something on me and i'm not sure why. i know that these are probabilistic and that the center line is (not mathematically, but essentially) the average track of the models they use rather than a set-in-stone prediction. i'm saying that it wasn't as close as it usually is. it's never perfect, but it's somewhat unusual at 2-3 days out for a storm to go this far off the "forecast line" -- with no special meaning there other than it's the line they draw. i look at these products a lot as a coastal FL resident, as well as model outputs. i'm not saying it's unprecedented, just that the retrospective on this one would be interesting to understand why the models seemed to have a persistent west bias. (particularly GFS)
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Oct 2, 2022 05:27
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Bad Purchase posted:you seem to be projecting something on me and i'm not sure why. i know that these are probabilistic and that the center line is (not mathematically, but essentially) the average track of the models they use rather than a set-in-stone prediction. The forecast line is not what you think it is, you're not listening to any of us trying to explain that fact to you. That line is literally just the middle of the cone, not where they are predicting the eye to be at any of those times. The line and cone are not separate entities.
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Oct 2, 2022 05:31
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quote:the center line is (not mathematically, but essentially) the average track of the models they use rather than a set-in-stone prediction. Yeah this is not true, the line only marks the progress of time. The location of the storm within the cone is entirely indeterminate and no location should be regarded as more probable than any other.
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Oct 2, 2022 05:32
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it's the center of the forecast e: argh, meant "center of forecast cone" not "center of forecast track", sorry Bad Purchase fucked around with this message at 05:58 on Oct 2, 2022 |
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Oct 2, 2022 05:35
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Bad Purchase posted:i understand what they mean. no you don't quote:i'm not trying to nitpick about terminology. yes you are
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Oct 2, 2022 05:37
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Bad Purchase posted:it's the center of the forecast track at the indicated time. how do you think they pick the center? you don't think it's an average of models? (not a literal, add them all up and divide by N average, but a weighted average of some system) no? It's about the extremes of potential steering forces that are likely to act on the storm, not a literal average of forecast tracks with x miles of uncertainty added
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Oct 2, 2022 05:38
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Herstory Begins Now posted:no? It's about the extremes of potential steering forces that are likely to act on the storm, not a literal average of forecast tracks with x miles of uncertainty added yes, exactly what i am trying to describe. if i am not saying it well, my bad. edit: like, as a simple 1 dimensional example: if you have 2 models which you trust equally predicting where an event will occur at a given time along an axis, and one says it has 90% confidence of the event occurring between X1 and X2, and the other says it has 90% confidence of the event occurring between X3 and X4, you draw your "cone" (or line in this case) from a probabilistic weighted version of those 2 regions (which may have some overlap and the new 90% confidence interval may not fully cover the extremes of the original ranges), and the center or "forecast" would simply be the point in the middle of the new range (at the given time). if you add more models and they have different confidences, probability distributions, or other factors like historical performance to weight in, then it gets more complicated, but it's still more or less a probabilistic average of a bunch of regions. Bad Purchase fucked around with this message at 06:00 on Oct 2, 2022 |
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Oct 2, 2022 05:40
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I swear at least a few of the last several storms ended up taking a path that was completely out of the cone of uncertainty. Maybe it was just for day 4 and 5.
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Oct 2, 2022 05:51
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Yeah I think statistically/historically it’s supposed to remain in the cone about 2/3 of the time. So it’s not unlikely for a storm to wander outside of it.
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Oct 2, 2022 06:10
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they quote a "60-70%" historical accuracy of the 5-day cone in the product description, but from the post-season reports i've read in the past they usually characterize verification in distance rather than probability at each day mark. not sure if they even publish a figure for 3 day accuracy as a percentage, but as a FL resident it's a pretty good bet that if you're in the 3 day cone you're gonna get some bad weather. 5 day cone is more like a coin flip.
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Oct 2, 2022 06:18
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Yeah that tracks
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Oct 2, 2022 06:24
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ok, i probably wasted a good saturday night, but i got curious and wanted to check myself against the actual data from NHC to see if the 3-day forecast track [their words] i quoted was actually any worse than usual. the image i linked on the previous page was the 11 am EDT update on 9/26, so i'll pick the closest forecast product from the morning of the 26th for ~72 hours ahead, which would be: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al09/al092022.fstadv.014.shtml posted:FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 83.2W note: the "Z" in 29/1200Z means UTC ("Zulu"). 12:00 UTC is 8 am in EDT. So not quite 72 hours ahead of the 11 am EDT guidance on 9/26, but close enough (69 hours  ). if you take anything away from this long dumb post it should be the number 69.the actual location of the storm 72 hours later at 8 am EDT can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al09/al092022.public_a.027.shtml posted:SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION the distance between the two locations (28.5N, 80.7W and 28.0N, 83.2W) is 135 n mi, using https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml. NHC publishes historical forecast track accuracy here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/1970-present_OFCL_ATL_annual_trk_errors_noTDs.pdf note that the document above is not about the cone -- it is only evaluating the forecast track points (i.e., the dots in the middle of the cone). for 2020-2021, the 72 hour average error was 80.5 n mi for 2010-2019, it was 98.8 n mi so at least for this forecast, an error of 135 n mi is worse than average by at least 35% compared to the last decade or so (and ~67% worse than the past 2 seasons), and more in the range of what you'd expect the average 4 day error to be. but, emphasis on average. without the standard deviation it's not possible to say how much of an outlier this is. plus this was only one singular point in time that i picked, quite arbitrarily because there happened to be a handy image posted earlier in the thread. individual forecasts will be a lot noisier than the overall average for the storm. so i guess the answer is yes, kinda. in this single example the track error was higher than the recent average, but i'd have to do a bunch more of these to know if that result was consistent over the course of the whole storm. and i'd need a lot more data about past seasons to know if it's off by a statistically significant amount or not (e,g., how many standard deviations). in conclusion, i definitely should not have spent time on this on a saturday night.
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Oct 2, 2022 07:58
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like, seriously, i could've been drinkin' and gamin' instead of doing that gonna chalk this one up to post-power outage hysteria
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Oct 2, 2022 08:01
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Death Toll: 101 and climbing as of 10/04/22. All the people who are angry because they weren't told to evacuate are the same people who say they dont want big Govt. telling them what to do.
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Oct 4, 2022 13:27
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Well, be that as it may, I have spoken with my lawyers and many say we will sue the hurricane producing company (Biden's NHC/NOAA/GOV)!!!
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Oct 4, 2022 13:53
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Turrurrurrurrrrrrr posted:Well, be that as it may, I have spoken with my lawyers and many say we will sue the hurricane producing company (Biden's NHC/NOAA/GOV)!!! That hurricane had socialism all over it!
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Oct 4, 2022 14:18
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Anyone on site to post pics of their new aquatic neighborhood?
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Oct 4, 2022 17:03
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Here's the current state of things. No imminent threats, but #2 has me  Just a weird track.  quote:1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
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Oct 4, 2022 17:48
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Replace every house in Florida with hurricane strength wind turbines.
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Oct 5, 2022 15:48
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return florida to its rightful owners, the birds and gators.
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Oct 5, 2022 15:55
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big nipples big life posted:return florida to its rightful owners, the birds and gators. Sorry, Florida belongs to South American boas and Australian Eucalypts now.
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Oct 5, 2022 15:59
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fuckingtest posted:Death Toll: 101 and climbing as of 10/04/22. Tampa was told to evacuate 4 days out. Lee County was going to tell everyone 36 hours out, but they decided to wait overnight to see what the forecast looked like in the morning. No one was told there was a mandatory evacuation until 4 hours before the county started to see the outer bands and wind. One of the guys that work for me was in mandatory evacuation and he didn't know about it until the beginning of the work day on Tuesday. Lee County really hosed this one up.
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Oct 5, 2022 18:06
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big nipples big life posted:return florida to its rightful owners, the birds and gators. I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant “Seminoles“
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Oct 5, 2022 20:34
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clambake posted:Tampa was told to evacuate 4 days out. Lee County was going to tell everyone 36 hours out, but they decided to wait overnight to see what the forecast looked like in the morning. No one was told there was a mandatory evacuation until 4 hours before the county started to see the outer bands and wind. Look there was no way to do this or see this coming. It's a once in a 500 year event, unprecedented. Impossible to evacuate early safely something something something.
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Oct 5, 2022 20:44
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So the good news there is in another decade when it's a twice-a-year event people will be well practiced.
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Oct 5, 2022 20:52
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Outrail posted:Sorry, Florida belongs to South American boas and Australian Eucalypts now. And nutria!
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Oct 6, 2022 01:18
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Pyrotoad posted:And nutria! And Boomers! No, wait
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Oct 6, 2022 04:25
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Pyrotoad posted:And nutria! 
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Oct 6, 2022 04:41
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Pyrotoad posted:And nutria! And green iguanas. Being from the SW coast myself, it is still a bit surreal to look at the pictures of the damage and see that "The Big One" has indeed come. I used to attend those hurricane preparedness seminars in person with my parents and they'd show us those "worst case scenario" pictures of landmarks under 10 feet of water, and it scared the stuffing out of us. I don't have any family out there anymore, but it's just... strange. I knew that area's days were numbered even before I left in the late 1990s. Too many canals, too much water, too precariously built.
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Oct 6, 2022 22:10
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New hurricane incoming
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Nov 9, 2022 22:46
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I'm supposed to be flying into Tampa tomorrow afternoon right around when Nicole will be overhead, for an outdoor wedding on Friday RIP
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Nov 10, 2022 00:00
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^ the storm will be clear of tampa by friday. airports in east and central FL are closing, tampa seems to be open still: https://news.tampaairport.com/tampa-international-airport-plans-to-remain-open-during-tropical-storm-nicole/ anyway, i'll be riding this one out from the barrier island. i'm in the cone pretty close to the north edge, so i'll be getting high tropical storm and potentially cat 1 hurricane winds overnight. the wind has been howling on and off most of the day, but it's getting very gusty now. i closed the storm shutters on the north an and east side of my house about an hour ago. that's where the bulk of the wind will be coming from. not much else to do except cook and eat as much cold or frozen food as i can before the power goes out.
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Nov 10, 2022 00:33
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7 pm NHC update just hit and uh 
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Nov 10, 2022 01:19
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this "hurricane" is a little bitch you can't knock my power out this time motherfucker
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Nov 10, 2022 01:32
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how does florida even exist
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Nov 10, 2022 01:34
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Bad Purchase posted:7 pm NHC update just hit and uh No ring
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Nov 10, 2022 01:36
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Bad Purchase posted:7 pm NHC update just hit and uh Current hurricane status: 
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Nov 10, 2022 01:36
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Philthy posted:how does florida even exist I seriously wonder that. They get annihilated constantly and just rebuild.
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Nov 10, 2022 01:37
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welp, there went power, right in the middle of making food seems to be just my little block again like last time, i still see lights on on the other side of the circle i’m on, and the corner gas station as well Bad Purchase fucked around with this message at 02:24 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 02:10
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I'm flipping the bird at the storm from Texas Come over here and try something lil piss bitch
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Nov 10, 2022 02:21
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