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https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1577337111803576321?s=46&t=ElYglJHjFAM05i1Txk92ag This seems pretty high. Barzal owns and is one of the shiftiest skaters in the league, great at entering the zone with the puck, but hasn’t come close to 80 points since his rookie year Cap going up $10mil soon so it will probably be decent value in the end
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Oct 4, 2022 17:42
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Twin Cinema posted:Regular season doesn't really matter for the Leafs. Other than seeing Matthews hit 50-in-50 again. I mean, if the past is any indication the post season doesn't really matter for them either The Dirty Burger posted:https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1577337111803576321?s=46&t=ElYglJHjFAM05i1Txk92ag Yeah it's not a terrible contract that will handicap them assuming the cap goes up as expected but also feels like "no really, the real Barzal is going to show up this time and bust out 90 points we swear"
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Oct 4, 2022 18:03
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ThinkTank posted:My extremely accurate and informed takeaway from the preseason so far: the Canucks suck a lot. It's been really bad.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:25
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Koopa Kid posted:The season predictions are mostly for hype because fans eat this stuff up, each model is a jumble of judgement calls and acceptable weirdness after tossing a bunch of numbers in a blender. As the person posting these dumb long previews, this is 100% correct. pseudodragon posted:Dom's writeup last year included this classic This is still hilarious.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:35
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Not a bad contract but holy poo poo Jason Robertson sure keeps getting more expensive doesn't he
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Oct 4, 2022 18:40
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:Not a bad contract but holy poo poo Jason Robertson sure keeps getting more expensive doesn't he and he will deserve it
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Oct 4, 2022 18:41
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Levitate posted:I mean, if the past is any indication the post season doesn't really matter for them either They mean something. They just don’t mean something positive.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:53
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https://twitter.com/andystrickland/status/1577317132186042368?s=46&t=ElYglJHjFAM05i1Txk92ag Big blow for the Blues, he looked like a solid NHLer down the stretch last season. St Louis are super good at getting value out of picks in the 20-50 range, they should stop trading all their second rounders.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:26
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Good soup! posted:https://twitter.com/DrEvilGritty/status/1577293195490349056?t=f2cd-aex7V4zNxgiQC192Q&s=19 that is one hell of a Lets Remember Some Guys LILJA!! 
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Oct 4, 2022 19:35
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Koopa Kid posted:Dom's model has always overrated the Leafs offensive talent because of how it projects the aging curve and its weight on individual contribution, like similarly you'll notice this year Matthew Tkachuk is now the third-most valuable forward in the league (that we've seen, anyway) based off of one great season at 24. Despite him recognizing its flaws and tweaking his model I assume he's also still underrating defence and goaltending a little too. Matthew Tkachuk was the third most valuable forward on his line last year. any model that rates him this highly is, for lack of a better word, fuckin dumb
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Oct 4, 2022 20:05
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mennoknight posted:Matthew Tkachuk was the third most valuable forward on his line last year. any model that rates him this highly is, for lack of a better word, fuckin dumb The model took into account how shattering your hand on a guys helmet in the first round can pump up your team, boom top-5 forward in the league
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Oct 4, 2022 20:17
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wellwood was so fast, shame he had his career cut short with that horrible injury
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Oct 4, 2022 20:17
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triple sulk posted:wellwood was so fast, shame he had his career cut short with that horrible injury I loved that speedy little gremlin man https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1577394732329836545 well who could have seen this coming
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Oct 4, 2022 21:52
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The Dirty Burger posted:https://twitter.com/andystrickland/status/1577317132186042368?s=46&t=ElYglJHjFAM05i1Txk92ag THey're going to struggle to make the playoffs this year lol
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Oct 4, 2022 22:17
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I'm sorry Scotty P, I also took Sean Walker in last year's SAS Fantasy Draft and he's finally back after tearing his ACL and MCL in a game against St. Louis last year so clearly someone had to go. (also the Kings have loads of RHD and the Leafs really could use one and also do something about the whole being ~$2M over the cap thing, unless they're just planning on always having somebody on LTIR)
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Oct 4, 2022 22:53
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Mike_V posted:THey're going to struggle to make the playoffs this year lol I could be wrong, but I disagree only because 1. The west is like, the Aves and then every other team has flaws, and 2. They’ll likely outscore their bad defense.
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Oct 4, 2022 23:03
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I look forward to another 35 goals against the Blues that involve Justin Faulk standing 10 feet from the net, rolling his eyes.
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Oct 4, 2022 23:29
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DJExile posted:I loved that speedy little gremlin man As bad as the Coyotes situation is it's probably still better than the saddledome when it comes to comfort level lol... doesn't seem to effect the Flames that much
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Oct 4, 2022 23:38
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The Dirty Burger posted:https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1577337111803576321?s=46&t=ElYglJHjFAM05i1Txk92ag I'm glad that our beautiful boy is sticking around for a while and getting paid BIG BUXX to do it, but drat I hope we score a winger who can keep up with him. He's been paired with 38 year old Zach Parise in the preseason, which... I don't know, man.
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Oct 4, 2022 23:54
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Danny Dekeyser was so bad he couldn't crack the Canucks' lineup
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Oct 4, 2022 23:56
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The Chicago Blackhawks are going to be one of the worst teams in modern NHL history. They wont beat expansion year Caps for worst team, but I could see them being worse than 93 Sens/Sharks.
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Oct 5, 2022 00:22
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Furnaceface posted:The Chicago Blackhawks are going to be one of the worst teams in modern NHL history. They wont beat expansion year Caps for worst team, but I could see them being worse than 93 Sens/Sharks. you wanna wager on them being worse than the Coyotes? cause I can't see it.
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Oct 5, 2022 00:40
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Furnaceface posted:The Chicago Blackhawks are going to be one of the worst teams in modern NHL history. They wont beat expansion year Caps for worst team, but I could see them being worse than 93 Sens/Sharks. How unfortunate. After three Stanley Cups the Hawks are going to be terrible in a year where the prize for doing so is the second best prospect since Crosby.
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Oct 5, 2022 00:51
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Furnaceface posted:The Chicago Blackhawks are going to be one of the worst teams in modern NHL history. They wont beat expansion year Caps for worst team, but I could see them being worse than 93 Sens/Sharks. Starsfan posted:you wanna wager on them being worse than the Coyotes? cause I can't see it. 
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Oct 5, 2022 00:56
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Furnaceface posted:The Chicago Blackhawks are going to be one of the worst teams in modern NHL history. They wont beat expansion year Caps for worst team, but I could see them being worse than 93 Sens/Sharks. I wouldn't underestimate the current-day Canadiens' incredible prowess at losing games in hilarious or humiliating fashion.
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Oct 5, 2022 01:00
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I like this guy. https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1577444503606202368
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Oct 5, 2022 01:00
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Furnaceface posted:The Chicago Blackhawks are going to be one of the worst teams in modern NHL history. They wont beat expansion year Caps for worst team, but I could see them being worse than 93 Sens/Sharks. Op have you seen the Montreal Canadiens this preseason
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Oct 5, 2022 01:38
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Season's over, 30 of 32 teams are complete garbage and the last two are worse than they were last year but still okay. Let's just skip to the final.
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Oct 5, 2022 02:13
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The models also can’t account for ~~vibes~~ which is why the Sabres will do better than the models predict. Unfortunately the models are predicting them finishing at the bottom of the league so that means they won’t make the playoffs but won’t be low enough for a meaningful draft pick.
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Oct 5, 2022 02:22
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Starsfan posted:As bad as the Coyotes situation is it's probably still better than the saddledome when it comes to comfort level lol... doesn't seem to effect the Flames that much It's still 2 months away from the Coyotes locker rooms being completed, their current situation is probably worse than the Saddledome as they are currently guests in the ASU home locker room and the college players have precedence in that locker room. Their first game where they have their own locker room is December 9th vs. Boston
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Oct 5, 2022 03:42
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grack posted:Danny Dekeyser was so bad he couldn't crack the Canucks' lineup Wasn’t he just pto’d so they could reach the veteran min player requirements. Like the Canucks problem isn’t a lack of 6/7 defencemen - they already have like 5..
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Oct 5, 2022 03:54
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VOTE1 posted:Wasn’t he just pto’d so they could reach the veteran min player requirements. Like the Canucks problem isn’t a lack of 6/7 defencemen - they already have like 5.. Probably, but the bar for actually making the team was so low you'd need a shovel to reach it.
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Oct 5, 2022 04:06
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stab posted:Op have you seen the Montreal Canadiens this preseason Come on. Losing in the preseason is good. They're going to improve this year and finish not-last.
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Oct 5, 2022 05:10
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The year that the Avs got 48 points, they won all 6 preseason games. Preseason games mean nothing. Freak out in December
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Oct 5, 2022 05:58
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fermun posted:Their first game where they have their own locker room is December 9th vs. Boston Sure that sounds bad but don’t they also only have 4 or 5 home games between now and then …I mean being on the road that much to start the season is also bad but when your home base sucks so much it’s probably nice to get away
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Oct 5, 2022 07:44
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deoju posted:I like this guy. that’s garbage starting a fight after a completely clean hit, he rightfully got the 10 for instigating
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Oct 5, 2022 11:52
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Ace Jameson posted:that’s garbage starting a fight after a completely clean hit, he rightfully got the 10 for instigating Yeah it seemed kind of excessive, like why fight in a preseason game? Maybe he just wanted to say he got the Gordie Howe hat trick lol
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Oct 5, 2022 12:49
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Other guy probably pointed out hes not gonna live up to his contract
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Oct 5, 2022 13:04
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The theme for the day: Canada is back, baby : "It’s difficult to recall a team in recent memory that had a more chaotic offseason than the Calgary Flames. Need a refresher? Well — they lost a franchise player in free agency, had their other franchise player ask for a trade, somehow won that trade in the short term by acquiring two high-end pieces, and then added an elite second-line center soon after. Take a snapshot of Calgary’s roster at different points this summer and the Flames projection has arguably one of the widest offseason ranges of all time. No Johnny Gaudreau and no Matthew Tkachuk might have honestly meant no playoffs for one of the league’s best teams last year. Those two were that good. Instead, add Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and MacKenzie Weegar into the fold and the Flames are right back to last year’s heights … and maybe even higher.  The projection Hockey is not an easy sport to model, not with how fluid and dynamic the game is, not with how random and chaotic the results can be, and not with how 10 skaters interact with each other on the ice. It’s a mess and those who have doubts about how the hockey nerd community analyzes the game have every right to reserve skepticism. Of course, it’s not perfect, it’s impossible to even be close; especially with the data at our disposal. But that doesn’t mean not trying — as tempting as it may be to analyze players purely off vibes — because we’re not aiming for perfect. Usually, it just means a bit more explaining. That’s what these season previews are … the data, charts and projections are a starting point for a broader discussion. Not the endpoint. That brings us to the Flames, an utterly fascinating team when it comes to measuring team strength going into next season. One of the easiest ways to confound a model like this one is to introduce some anarchy into the roster and no team in recent history has done that better than Calgary has this summer. The Flames made massive changes and while we can make our best guess at how the pieces fit here based on what each player did previously, a player switching teams comes with much higher degrees of uncertainty. There’s no telling just how they’ll fit in a new environment and while a model can give a best guess, there’s even more room for error than usual. Usually, top teams lose a lot of value during the offseason while bottom teams gain value — a feature of the salary cap to create parity. Calgary looked well on its way to losing a lot of value, but unlike its peers, the Flames were able to recuperate a lot of it … in the aggregate. That’s the famous line from “Moneyball” and the basic premise is there on a superstar level. Gaudreau and Tkachuk are better than all of Huberdeau, Kadri and Weegar; but in the aggregate, the new trio is worth just as much as the lost duo. The Flames end up right where they started, projected for 107 points — just four fewer than last season. But while Moneyball works well in baseball, obviously, it can be a bit more hit or miss in hockey where value still remains difficult to properly assess. Calgary’s success last year came from having an ultra-high-end core with capable support. This year the script is flipped as the Flames will be depending on a strong supporting cast to prop up a weaker core. It’s one that still ranks in the top 10, but it’s lacking compared to Colorado and the four behemoths in the Atlantic. That might make it difficult for the Flames to live up to this projection come playoff time. This is a very deep team that should clear 100 points during the regular season — something the Flames do 83 percent of the time — but the playoffs are a different beast. Last year’s team was undone by Edmonton’s star power and that problem is only going to be worse this season. The model gives Calgary a 12 percent chance of winning it all, but that may be overselling things a bit based on the current roster construction. On paper, the Flames look very strong, but it’s extremely difficult to know just how well everything will fit together. The big question Can Jonathan Huberdeau be The Guy on the top line? What started as a cruel summer for the Flames quickly picked up with a game-changing trade that brought Huberdeau and Weegar to Calgary. The Flames’ offseason shows their commitment to compete these next couple of years before contracts start aging poorly. But with the departure of Gaudreau, the team now needs Huberdeau to step up on that top line. Last year, Calgary’s top line wasn’t the product of one player alone; it was a combination of Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Tkachuk together. But the most valuable piece of that line, the driver, was Gaudreau without question. That’s the role Huberdeau has to fill. On the surface it may seem like this will be a slam dunk for the newly acquired Flame, who is coming off his hottest season yet. Huberdeau scored a career-high 115 points — the same total as Gaudreau in two fewer games — that trailed only Connor McDavid’s 123 points. And with 85 assists, he stood out as a top passer in the league. But a deeper look shows why there may be questions about just how well he can handle this role himself. There are two key drawbacks with that point total: his primary points and power-play scoring. About 72 percent of Huberdeau’s all-situation points were primary, which does lack compared to other top scorers in the league like McDavid (75.6 percent), Gaudreau (80 percent), Leon Draisaitl (80 percent) and Kirill Kaprizov (79.6 percent). Even Tkachuk finds himself at 77.9 percent. Primary points are more repeatable than secondary and show how much a player directly impacts scoring. Huberdeau earned about 33 points on the advantage. Tons of players collect a ton of their scoring on the power play — McDavid and Draisaitl did. But Gaudreau, the player whose role he’s stepping into, was much more of a five-on-five scorer; less than 21 percent of his points were tallied on the advantage. As highly as Huberdeau ranks in most passing categories — he is a dangerous passer who will likely click well with someone like Lindholm and his finishing talent — taking out the power play does wilt some of his puck movement. That’s an area that Gaudreau ran away with, comparatively. And while the idea isn’t for Huberdeau to be Gaudreau, these are individual players on different iterations of the Flames; comparisons are natural when they’re similar stylistically. Huberdeau’s play below the surface also sparks some questions around whether he can be the No. 1 player this Flames team signed him to be. In Florida, Huberdeau wasn’t tasked with going up against top competition. The Panthers kept the second line more sheltered with Aleksander Barkov’s line taking on top forwards and defenders. That may not be the case for him in Calgary. Last year, the Flames split up top forward competition between Lindholm and Mikael Backlund. The fact that Huberdeau will have a two-way center like Lindholm for support should help in that role if the workload distribution continues, seeing as the winger isn’t very strong in his own end. He doesn’t always make the right defensive reads, whether he’s out of place, coasting, or overcommits to pull himself out of position. The Flames’ structure should help mask some of that when he takes on tough forward competition, but taking on top defenders trying to shut him down will be a change from last year. And what hurts Huberdeau is that there isn’t as strong of a right winger now to complete the line, regardless of who slots there, to draw attention away from him as there was last year. These flaws in his games are what influenced his ranking in this year’s Player Tiers, with a few sources pointing out he’s not dimensional enough to fit with some in higher tiers. “I think that he’s a really good player. He’s always found a way to be productive,” an analyst said. “He’s not really a pure driver, though” “(He) doesn’t play defense, his skating is fine, he’s not super competitive. But he’s a good passer. That helps, but is that a winning hockey player? I would say no,” said another analyst. So there’s a lot that Huberdeau is going up against to prove that he can be the driver and most valuable player in Calgary to lead the way. It’s possible he thrives in this new environment — one where there’s a lot more two-way support versus a live-by-the-blade, die-by-the-blade style. The Darryl Sutter factor can’t be ignored either. Gaudreau didn’t have the most staunch defensive reputation either before Sutter’s arrival, but he absolutely held his own in 2021-22. It’s possible that Huberdeau can elevate his two-way game in the same way under Sutter’s tutelage. And maybe the Flames’ new-look top nine brings more support so there isn’t as much emphasis on the leading line as there was last year. But for as excellent of an offensive player as he may be, some of the flaws may be what hold him back from being an MVP-caliber game breaker. Huberdeau is an elite forward. This season will show whether he can be a true franchise player. The wildcard Is MacKenzie Weegar the true No. 1 defender this team needs come playoff time? Analytically, yes. There’s no question. MacKenzie Weegar spent his first two seasons crushing soft minutes before proving his worth in a top-four role in 2019-20. That season, he had the best expected goals percentage on Florida by nearly four percentage points. He earned a spot on the top pair next to Aaron Ekblad the very next season, but it was what Weegar did without Ekblad down the stretch that was truly eye-catching. Ekblad missed the final 20 games of the season that year, and in that timeframe, Weegar’s numbers actually improved to the tune of a 62 percent expected goals rate and 72 percent of the actual goals. That was next to Gustav Forsling. Weegar had arrived and the next season was spent entrenching himself as a go-to guy on the top pair. While it should be crystal clear Weegar isn’t a product of Ekblad from that stretch in 2020-21, his microstats tell a similar story. Weegar is as involved in shot contributions as Ekblad and defends his blue line just as well, too — but with the puck on his stick, Weegar is much more involved in transition. In terms of zone exits, Weegar ranked sixth in the entire league last season in net successful exits per 60. He’s very good. But there’s another side to that, one that kept Weegar in Tier 4 during the Player Tiers project: Hockey people don’t seem to like him nearly as much. “We liked playing against him” is about as damning a quote as you’ll get from a scout about a supposedly high-end defender, one who has questions regarding his hockey sense and defending. That he’s prone to making The Big Mistake doesn’t help matters. This year will be a big one in terms of proving doubters wrong. Weegar’s results should already speak for itself, but a change of scenery always serves as the best way to prove a point — one way or the other. The model is very high on Weegar and Calgary’s lofty projection depends on him being That Guy. Time to see if he really is. The core Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson, Jacob Markstrom The Flames’ core is headlined by a few new faces that joined the organization during a transformative offseason. There’s no Matthew Tkachuk. No Johnny Gaudreau. To a lesser extent, no Sean Monahan. The end result is a core group that, based on GSVA, is the seventh best in the league with a combined 18.3 wins. Calgary’s core is rated slightly below average among a top 10 that otherwise averages 19.4 wins. That’s partially explained by players like Andrew Mangiapane (2.2 wins) and Noah Hanifin (2.2 wins) qualifying as “depth.” Mangiapane very well might be more of a core piece than Toffoli, but the latter is being given every chance in training camp to play with Lindholm and Huberdeau. Beyond that, not a lot of teams have a 2.2 win player — Hanifin — as their third-best defender on paper. That leaves Calgary nicely balanced with the fourth-best support group in the league and a top 10 core group of players. Huberdeau leads the forwards. He’s coming off a 115-point season and earned some Hart Trophy buzz. He’s long been one of the NHL’s best playmakers, and might be the best to wear a Flames jersey, according to head coach Darryl Sutter: “Jonathan Huberdeau is probably the best passer that this team has had, maybe ever,” he said last week. A direct hit! Huberdeau led the league with 85 assists last season. He was also among the best in the league in primary shot assists/60 — 15.63, behind McDavid, Brad Marchand, Mathew Barzal, Nikita Kucherov, Gaudreau and Barkov. His shots/60 (9.35) is lower comparatively, though, which makes Huberdeau more of a playmaker than a dual threat. Huberdeau’s defensive deficiencies have been discussed ad nauseam. His goals-against rate (2.99/60) was the worst among any regular skater on the Panthers last season. Some of that can be explained by playing in front of Sergei Bobrovsky; Huberdeau’s on-ice save percentage was 90.3 percent. But it also wasn’t far off his expected goals-against rate (2.88 per 60), which was ahead of only Anthony Duclair. Jacob Markstrom will certainly help improve Huberdeau’s goals against, as will playing in Sutter’s system which should help Hubderdeau bleed fewer chances against. That guy knows a thing about turning high-scoring left wingers into more complete players. And then there’s Lindholm, a Selke-finalist center with elite defensive metrics and a track record of making his linemates better. He’s also projected to be worth the same amount of wins (3.1) as Huberdeau. The question is whether Lindholm meshes with his new linemates, because we know how good Lindholm, Gaudreau and Tkachuk were — their 73 goals for and 31 against made them the most productive line at five-on-five last season. Huberdeau and Toffoli are downgrades defensively from Gaudreau and especially Tkachuk, which puts more emphasis on Lindholm to be the defensive driver on the line. Will that mean Lindholm needs to pick up the slack and sacrifice some of his offensive production, or is it as simple as him doing what he did last year? It might be. Last season was the culmination of Lindholm’s progression as a player. He’s always had the raw tools to be a top-line offensive producer — he profiled that way as a prospect and was picked No. 5 in 2013. He has an elite shot with a deceptively quick release and has established himself as one of the most complete forwards in the NHL. Toffoli popped early in his Flames career but didn’t look great down the stretch or in the playoffs. He was one of the only regular forwards in Calgary with an expected goal rate under 50 percent. Toffoli is one of the most naturally gifted shooters on the Flames — he’s scored at least 20 goals six times in his career and has thrived with teammates who can get him the puck in the slot. There’s reason to believe Toffoli will fit with Huberdeau and Lindholm, given Huberdeau’s playmaking ability and Lindholm’s strengths as a No. 1 centre. But he’ll need to rebound to maintain that spot, especially with Mangiapane on the left wing depth chart. Kadri is an elite two-way center coming off a career year at 31. He scored 87 points in 71 games and finished top 10 in even-strength points/60 last season (2.98). His jump in production helped the Avs through stints without Nathan MacKinnon, and at full strength gave them two reliable scoring lines. That’s the hope in Calgary. Kadri is a volume shooter, and that held true this past season with 19.3 shot attempts per 60, the second-highest rate of his career. Kadri can use his size and strength to effectively bring the puck into the offensive zone. He can generate quality shots off the cycle as well. The issue for Kadri — and, on some level, the Flames — is that a follow-up act is going to be tough. Going back to that even-strength points/60 number, Kadri’s 2.98 represented a 1.19 year-over-year jump. In his previous five seasons, he’d only been within 0.93 of that number once. Mix in his age (32 at the start of the season) and his teammates’ on-ice shooting percentage of 9.79 in Colorado, and a repeat performance is tough to bet on. His quality of teammates in Calgary will also have an impact. Rasmus Andersson leveled up last season, turning into a legitimate top-pair defender who thrived with Hanifin as his most frequent partner. As a duo, they ranked fifth in the league in expected goals (57.6 percent) among pairs who played at least 500 minutes, mostly buoyed by a strong offensive presence (3.01 goals for/60) and playing with the Lindholm line. And while Hanifin is projected to be worth a tad more than Andersson this season, Andersson has added value as a right-shot defender with more minutes on the power play, on the penalty kill and at five-on-five. Something for him to work on is stopping carry-ins against when targeted; 70.4 percent made it past him. However, Andersson did well to protect the middle and stop offensive attempts against in transition. While Andersson struggled in the postseason, so did most defenders not named Chris Tanev. He is still only 25 years old and should take another step this season. We’ve already broken down Weegar’s presence. He’s an elite, two-way defenseman and one of the league’s top defenders in transition in terms of leading the rush and closing a gap to stop opponents. We’re projecting he’ll play with Tanev, especially with Oliver Kylington expected to miss the start of the regular season. The hope would be that Tanev’s reliability and Weegar’s dynamism with the puck on his stick would give the Flames two No. 1 pairings that can be solid in their own zone and dangerous on the counterattack. Markstrom was one of the best goalies in the league last season, posting a .921 save percentage (fourth among qualified goaltenders) and nine shutouts (No. 1). He saved 15.61 goals above expected (sixth among qualifiers) and finished second in Vezina Trophy voting. Lost in Jake Oettinger’s first-round star turn last season was the fact that Markstrom won the series. He went toe-to-toe in a great goalie battle that saw him post a .943 save percentage. Markstrom wasn’t nearly as busy as his opponent across the ice, but he still responded well to his workload saving 6.25 goals above expected in seven games. Then he got shelled against Edmonton in Round 2, where he had a .852 save percentage and conceded 7.76 more goals than expected. That essentially canceled out his Round 1 accomplishments for a total postseason GSAx of minus-1.51 through 12 games. The best thing for Markstrom this season would be if Dan Vladar takes another step. Vladar was solid in stints last year — save for a stretch in December and January where he lost the only three starts he made, letting 14 goals in over those three games — but he’ll need to be better to earn Sutter’s trust. Markstrom played 75 games last season, and you could tell by the end it was a lot. The Flames need him to be fresh when it matters most. The support Calgary’s biggest strength is its supporting cast which ranks second in the league to only Minnesota. The Flames have a very deep team and that’s primarily due to their defense corps — an already deep group that added a potential star at the top in Weegar. That pushes Hanifin, a legit top-pairing defenseman, down into the support section along with Tanev, Kylington and Nikita Zadorov. The Flames may not have a Cale Makar or Victor Hedman-type, but no team is as stacked from one-to-six like Calgary. The team’s cumulative value from defensemen is second in the league, just 0.1 wins away from the Avalanche. Hanifin has really come into his own over the past two seasons. There were questions about whether he was a Tanev-byproduct in 2020-21, but he answered those swiftly in 2021-22 on an elite pair with Andersson. He led the team’s defenders in expected goals percentage at 57 percent last season, earning close to 60 percent of the goals. He’s a well-rounded player who can move the puck well and defend — a great fit with the more offensive-minded Andersson. That meant a new partner for Tanev — an addition to his legend. It’s no coincidence that Hanifin found his game next to the defensive rearguard and that Quinn Hughes thrived before him. Next up is Kylington who had a breakout season for the Flames. While Kylington may be difficult to trust defensively in a top-four role, he showed last year that he can be one of the league’s best puck-movers. Only Makar and Charlie McAvoy exited the zone with control more than Kylington’s 75 percent rate, and he did that at a similar volume per 60. Tanev’s presence allows him to do that, but it’s also a testament to his ability. He’s a luxury on the third pair and should form a solid duo with another defensive-minded player in Nikita Zadorov. As for Tanev, he looks to slot next to Weegar which immediately looks like one of the league’s best shutdown pairs. On the back end, Calgary is set. The Flames’ three pairs all rank in the league’s top five and are the biggest reason they rate so highly. Up front, things aren’t nearly as rosy — especially not the fourth line, which rates as one of the league’s absolute worst. Adam Ruzicka over Cody Eakin would help. The team’s second line has potential to be terrific with Mangiapane and Blake Coleman flanking Kadri. That’s one of the best second lines in the league, a frustratingly annoying trio that can score a lot and play terrific two-way hockey. While Mangiapane made headlines for his scoring last season, his ability to drive play has always been a feature of his game. It’s translated seamlessly in a top-six role where last year he earned a 58 percent expected goals rate which ranked only behind Calgary’s top line. Coleman may not have produced as much as usual, but his ability to drive play makes him an asset. The bottom six is a bit direr, though Backlund sliding down into that role might help elevate some players. He and Dillon Dube form an intriguing duo with the latter flashing some decent finishing talent over the last two seasons. The Flames have used Coleman with Backlund instead during camp so that may add some necessary balance to the top nine. Having Kevin Rooney on the left is far from ideal though and partially negates what Backlund and Dube or Coleman add. The best case Gaudreau and Tkachuk, who? The Flames’ bold offseason helps push this team deep into the postseason, past the Oilers, past the Avalanche and into the Stanley Cup Final where they finally bring the Cup back to Canada. Huberdeau puts up MVP-caliber play to elevate the top line despite their key subtractions. Kadri gives the team the second-line scoring punch they were missing. And Calgary has a true No. 1 in Weegar. The worst case Huberdeau can’t drive the first line alone, Kadri’s play starts to decline, and Markstrom’s hefty workload from last year weighs down his game. The Flames look more like pretenders and get ousted by a lesser team in Round 1, with the clock ticking on their playoff window. The bottom line The fact that we’re talking about the Flames as a legitimate Cup contender is, on some levels, a surprise. Not many teams are capable of losing their two best players and coming out in better shape — but that’s what happened, thanks in part to reeling in Kadri with their freed-up money. And really, the Kadri addition sums up the Flames’ approach. They’re ready to win, right now and for a few seasons afterward. Whenever the bill comes due in four or five years, maybe less, it won’t be pretty. No secrets there. But the goal is to stack wins and compete at the top level while they can, and with several high-end players at or around 30 years old, they’re in an ideal position to do just that. Circumstances forced their hand, and the end result is one of the best teams in the league. They’re going for it. What more can anyone ask for?
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Oct 5, 2022 13:11
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Ace Jameson posted:that’s garbage starting a fight after a completely clean hit, he rightfully got the 10 for instigating Feel like it happens constantly now. Nothing like taking a clean hit and turning it into CTE!
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Oct 5, 2022 13:28
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