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LADIES, GENTLEMEN, NONBINARY FANS OF NO-LOOK PASSES YOUR 2022-2023 DENVER NUGGETS!  ------------- 2021-2022 Season Review https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCvMAVz0syk Other than the individual accolade for Jokić, basically a lost season. What it did establish was a baseline of just how good a team of Jokić And Whoever is: 48 wins and an unlucky first-round matchup with the Warriors. This was a team that played Facundo Campazzo for 1,184 minutes, who was probably the worst player in the NBA (though he also made some insane passes, seriously watch this if you haven't seen his clips). ------------- Offseason Moves copy/pasted from Hollinger at The Athletic to save me a couple seconds quote:Last season: 48-34 (lost in first round); eighth in offense, 13th in defense The big move was the trade with the Wizards of "Mr. Nugget" Monte Morris and Will Barton for Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith. Essentially, the Nuggets gave up one of the best backup point guards in the league for a solid 3-and-D wing. This is what NBA trades are truly supposed to be: something that truly makes both teams better. The reasoning is that with Jamal Murray coming back, and the emergence of Bones Hyland, the solid play of Monte won't be needed nearly as much as someone who can chase around scoring guards and sit in the corner on offense. Losing Will Barton was an absolute blessing; he's one of the most average starters in the league at everything. 36.5% from three is fine, but not "play him to shoot threes" good. He can handle the ball, but he wasn't good enough at it to want him to do it. He wasn't good enough at running the offense to have him lead the second unit (though they did try), and he's too ball-dominant to fit him in alongside Jokic and Murray. Aside from that, the Nuggets failed to re-sign DeMarcus Cousins, not listed above despite the enormous boost he gave to the bench last year as a backup to Jokić, replacing him with DeAndre Jordan. This is not good. I would go so far as to say this was very bad. If the Nuggets struggle more than expected this year, one of the reasons will be not finding a backup big for Jokić, someone who plays in at all a similar way to the man himself. Cousins, even if he can physically only play 10mpg and racks up technical fouls, absolutely did that. Apparently, they wanted a ~solid veteran presence~, and there were some vague whispers that Cousins was bad for the locker room or whatever. I'm sure Malone wasn't happy about it, he had been publicly lobbying for Cousins before the Nuggets had even signed him. I wish Boogie only the best, and will miss him dearly. JaMychal was superfluous with Jeff Green also on the roster, and Bryn Forbes was on the team so briefly I often forget he ever played (even though Denver inexplicably gave up a 2nd round pick for half a season of him off the bench, yes I still get mad at Tim Connelly for minor poo poo like this). ------------- Starting 5! Center (if you're normal)/PG (if you read CSPAM) - Nikola Jokić https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQQQDc98efQ How much do I still need to talk about this guy? Reigning back-to-back MVP. He is the Denver Nuggets at this point. He's the most impactful offensive player in the NBA, and this past season he worked a lot on improving his defense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ptmuX7AqM Especially in clutch moments, he had some truly impressive defensive plays. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXWt6LXysj0 Were half of them things that would be called a foul in the first 46 minutes? Yeah. Doesn't change the fact that it was good and impactful, though. After a year of hard-carrying the team, 2022-23 will be a year that Jokic can use his energy a bit differently. He's by nature a pass-first guy, but last season, he had to be score-first due to the complete lack of help. His second-leading scorer was Aaron Gordon at 15ppg, which was the lowest scoring of any second-highest-scorer in the NBA last year. Jokić's assists were down (slightly, in per-game but not AST%) while his usage, turnovers, rebounding, and even his shooting efficiency, somehow, were all up. He got better at shooting around the basket and in the short midrange, while his free throw and long-range shooting took a hit, probably due to how tired he was. Also, the most common nickname is "Joker" but "Big Honey" is way better. Unrealistically optimistic hope: the improved supporting cast leads Jokić into averaging a triple-double for his third straight MVP. More realistic expectation: 1st team All-NBA unless Embiid gets MVP. PG - Jamal Murray https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPg7fBt6X7I Is he simply back, or is he BACK? "539" was thrown around a lot: the number of days between his injury and playing in a Nuggets uniform again for the first time in preseason. Everyone will be holding their breath every time Jamal leaves his feet for the next five months, but the injury really took away people's memory of just how good Jamal was. It wasn't just "bubble Murray:" while he's known as the guy who will absolutely take over in the 4th in important playoff games (and he will!), this downplays just how good Murray was after the bubble. In the 48 games he played before getting hurt, he was averaging 21/5/4, shooting 40.8% on threes, while only being assisted on 58.1% of them. His ability to create something out of nothing is incredible, and takes the load off Jokić having to do this 40 times per game. And the connection Jamal and Jokić has is truly special, rivaled only by the Steph/Draymond connection in terms of two players that make each other better. I'm sure it'll take them a few months to shake the rust off, but they've been working at this stuff since they were coming off the bench together in 2016. They'll run 1/5 pick and roll, 5/1, playground-style give-and-go, whatever. If it involves the two of them, it's almost certainly a bucket. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkzoP3f4nYg Unrealistically optimistic hope: he's not just BACK, he makes his first All-Star team. He's not just second banana to Jokić, he's actually embracing his drive to be the primary scorer as Jokić is setting him up for easier baskets than he ever had before. More realistic hope: he can still shoot, he can still work magic with Jokić, but he's lost a bit of explosiveness and plays 50 regular season games. SF - Michael Porter Jr. https://twitter.com/HarrisonWind/status/1377363524809236480 ??? ?????? ????????????????????????? MPJ probably has the widest variance in the NBA in terms of what he'll put up this season. There's a very real possibility he's this generation's Greg Oden, a highly-touted prospect who shows great flashes when he plays, but cannot physically play basketball because of injuries. For MPJ, it's not a series of random freak occurrences like AD or others, but consistently his back. I can see MPJ reading a headline like that Itchy and Scratchy cartoon that says "you need a back to play basketball." He only played nine games last year before being pulled, and was very clearly not himself for those. His jump shot, one of the best in the NBA, wasn't hitting; he just seemed stiff and uncomfortable. But that's the bad stuff, that's almost all that anyone has talked about with MPJ: the "what if he can't play." Well, if he can, the man is really loving good. 6'10" with the ability to just completely ignore whatever poor fool is trying to "contest" his shot, he'll take threes that have you asking "why on earth would you shoot that" until it swishes perfectly. What was interesting in the nine games of 2022, though, was that aside from being completely off, he also looked better in his areas of weakness. He wasn't Jokić with his passing, but he was fitting into the offense instead of stopping the ball every time, and even had a couple nice finds. He seemed to be grasping some ideas of defense, which is a promising start for a 6'10" athletic guy. His preseason also looks good, which is a huge relief. I was terrified he'd be missing shots again like his nine games in 2021, but he's 10/20 on threes in preseason. Of course, he does have non-injury related weaknesses. Last we saw him, he still had work to do on defensive awareness. He cannot dribble, like, at all. People criticize his shot selection, but I'll defend him on this; he's shooting 44.5% on threes and 62.8% on twos, I'd never yell at him to shoot less. He does seem, overall, like kind of a dumbass, in a hybrid Kyrie anti-vax and Shaq actually-just-dumb kind of way. Unrealistically optimistic hope: his back issues are behind him, he becomes at least average on defense, and he makes the All-Star team. Jokić passes him the ball at the three-point line 14 times a game, he shoots it every time to make six of them, instead 18 PPG plus all the cuts for dunks. More realistic expectation: I really do not know. There seems like very little middle ground on this one, either he plays NBA basketball or he doesn't. Therefore because there's two options, it's a coin flip, Nuggets 50/50 to win the championship. PF - Aaron Gordon AG's career turn I can only compare to Andre Iguodala (though AG was never close to being an all-star): important piece on a bad team to key role-player on a contending one. The previous season, Coach Malone made him the team's #1 defensive option for 1-4; he had to chase Trae Young or whoever else around for the whole game, while circumstances also forced him to be the default #2 scorer (as discussed above). This year, he has help both in lessened offensive responsibility, and from an actual perimeter defender, so while I still expect him to spend a lot of time guarding wings, his overall energy expended per play will probably be way down. One of the positives of 2022 was the amount of time Jokić had to spend working on the two-man game with AG, and while it'll never be as good as the one with Jamal or MPJ, AG knows how to cut for Jokić for easy baskets. AG is nothing better than average as a shooter, but that's taking into account that he had to do a lot of bullshit shot creation with awful bench units or when Jokić was getting the ball denied to him by three guys. One thing I wonder about is if, similar to Camby and Millsap before him, he's a guy who really really wants his one or two long twos or post-ups called every game despite not being that great at them. In preseason, at least, he bizarrely wanted to do post isos a couple times, but hopefully that's just messing around and we won't see that too much during the year. HOPEFULLY. Unrealistically optimistic hope: first team all-defense while his three-point shot improves due to being more open than in years past. More realistic expectation: solid defense, 10ppg. SG - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Brought to do two things: Three, and D. Denver has been lacking a good version of this player for years (Jerami Grant was the closest, but wasn't actually at his best in Denver). I haven't watched much of him myself, but training camp interviews show he's working with Coach Malone on his job of "run to the corner," and he seems happy to do it. As with any Denver newcomer, we'll have to watch for how good he is at making opportunistic cuts to the rim when Jokić has the ball and his defender isn't looking, but other than that his job performance rating will just be looking at his 3P%. If he sticks to the ~40% he's shot over the last three seasons, phenomenal. If you've actually watched this guy, please, jump in with cool aspects of his game I don't know about. ------------- The Bench PG/SG - Bones Hyland AKA Bizzy AKA Bizzy Bones AKA Tresy AKA Did You Know There's A Streetball Scene In Delaware AKA BONE3 AKA Don't Call Him Nah'Shon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=be_me_2mvQs As president and founder of the Bones Hyland fan club, I call this meeting to order. Reminder do NOT interrupt when the chair is speaking, we are following Robert Parish's Rules of Order. RESOLVED: that Bones is a Hooper, and BE IT FURTHERMORE RESOLVED that Bones has That Dog in him. Okay I'm bored of this gimmick already, but Bones was an absolute steal at the 26th pick of the draft, and already as a rookie, was put in charge of getting the bench unit to score. Bones is absolutely in a Jamal Crawford kind of mold, a score-first PG with a ton of craftiness around the rim. He doesn't have all the crossovers of Crawford yet but who the hell does; instead, he has range out to the logo. He actually seems to prefer spotting up four feet behind the three-point line, where the defender is super far from contesting. His shiftiness, confidence, ability to find unconventional scoop layups to get buckets, and rail-thin frame that means he ragdolls whenever he gets fouled has made him my favorite non-Jokić player. He's the kind of bench scorer that gets HYPE when he scores, and his showboating to the home crowd has made him a favorite of highlight reels and the five Denver citizens who can find a way to watch the games. His "I can't hear you" celebration to the crowd is great. Actually, Crawford might not be the best comparison. Bones is a streetball player. He wants to do Hot Sauce moves and completely embarrass you, but instead of super flashy dribble moves, it just feels like his body is moving at the wrong speed. He does constant hesitations followed by a burst, followed by a layup that leaves his hand either a second too early or a second too late. Actually go watch that video above, it's real good. He claimed to put on  SIX POUNDS OF MUSCLE in the offseason, which, six? I mean, I guess that makes it more believable??He's probably never gonna be an amazing defender because he's so light, but he has good anticipation of passing lanes and he's so shifty in transition that it's a free two points if he intercepts your pass. He's a point guard, but his ability to run the offense instead of just do sick 1v1 moves is a work in progress. He had a good connection building with Boogie at the end of last season; if he finds a connection with a bench big, the Nuggets #1 weakness in the Jokić era (godawful bench that turns his leads into deficits instantly) evaporates. Unrealistically optimistic hope: sixth man of the year. More realistic expectation: 25 minutes a game, leads the bench unit in scoring. ??? - Bruce Brown While KCP will be the most impactful acquisition for the Nuggets, Brown might be the most interesting. His skillset (defend, cut, hit threes, even if last seasons 40% shooting was a fluke) fits perfectly with Jokic, but I have no idea where the hell they're going to fit him in the lineup. Those skills would want to make you play him with the starters, but what do those lineups look like? Do you take KCP or AG out for him? There were even discussions of putting this 6'4" guy in as backup center based on some stuff he did with the Nets last year, which, I dunno, dude, the NBA is weird these days. The Nuggets bench lineups in years past have had issues where all five players are role players who are allergic to making proactive plays, leading to hot potato into the worst end-of-shot-clock attempts possible, so I hope they figure something out. The bench unit with him in preseason looked bad. More practically, KCP/MPJ/AG aren't going to play 82 games, so I could see Brown moving up to the starting lineup in stints. PF/C - Zeke Nnaji Super promising young player that genuinely seems like he's bulked up in order to try to grab a backup center role away from the old farts. He's super skilled (37/80 on threes last year, 46.3%), good nose for offensive rebounding, promising in terms of defensive awareness, but the worry is he's just too small (6'9") to play a real role as a backup big. To which I say, who loving cares, the reporters and coaches won't shut up about what a great training camp he had, give the kid some run. This is his third year in the league and despite putting up incredible per-minute stats, he's played 1095 career minutes. My prediction is that at the start of the year, Coach Malone will play wayyyy worse people than him, then injuries will happen, then at the very end of the season, they'll realize "Nnaji actually... Good??" and he'll finally get some real playing time. But hopefully we can find out for real who this guy is with a larger sample. If Bones finds a real connection with a bench comrade, it's gonna be Zeke (they've shown some steps toward this already). Also, good piano player. PF/C - Jeff Green https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auxp_y7rTjg One of two remaining Supersonics players in the league, Uncle Jeff is playing into the age of 36. After being a high-flying tweener SF as a youngster, he's turned into a reliable backup big with acceptable shooting. He will, however, throw down the most thunderous dunk if you check your phone while he's in the game. He's going to obliterate some kid with no living memory of the time when Jeff Green was first in the league. Unrealistically optimistic hope: Jeff Green More realistic expectation: Jeff Green SF - Davon Reed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSKlBuOM2aU As a two-way player last year, he was ineligible for the playoffs, where I think he would have been really good. He got converted to a real contract this year, so I'm excited to see if he can be a three-and-D guy from the scrapheap. If his three-point shooting is real (37/86, 43% last year), that's huge alongside truly committed defense. Quick hits: SG/SF - Christian Braun (pronounced "Brown"): rookie, 3 and D potential, looks solid on that end already, has Tenacity and Hustle and Grit and white skin. PG - Ish Smith: throw-in in Washington trade. Third string, reliable PG. Hit a game-winner in preseason. Seems like a nice guy. C - DeAndre Jordan: should not be in the NBA. Super friendly, really funny, great mentor, please promote him to assistant coach instead of taking minutes from positive players. PF - Vlatko Čančar: his fourth year with the Nuggets, inexplicably. Has played 500 career minutes. Hit some good shots off Luka passes in Euroleague. ??? - Peyton Watson: project who was terrible even in college. G-League. C - Jack White: lol like the musician. Guys he's named Jack White! What is he a fucken uhhh Jack White? Like the musician. Actually he's Australian. ------------- Coach - Michael Malone https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwD5IQ0M4g0 Really friendly guy, kind of the opposite end of the "media interactions" spectrum from Pop in that he seems to enjoy giving in-depth thoughtful answers even to silly questions. Reputation as a "player's coach" who tries to build a family kind of culture in Denver. Trying hard to focus the team on defense this year. Two or three times a season, he'll purposefully get in a shouting match with a ref over Jokić no-calls to show Big Honey he's serious. Malone is respected enough that he didn't get trampled doing this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJ43kbTlt5E ------------- Strengths and weaknesses This is the best starting five in the NBA. Put up anyone you want against Murray/KCP/MPJ/Gordon/Jokić and I'm taking the Nuggets. They'll cruise to a top-5 ORTG. The question is going to be on the defensive end. They somehow ended up 13th overall, based on Jokić's strides in that area and Gordon making it his priority, but the anti-Jokić crowd is going to claim that this team's ceiling is always going to be low based on the inability to defend the rim. There's definitely a possibility this is true. But with KCP and Gordon, this team has its best chance to prove the opposite. The other issue is going to be that bench. Aside from MPJ, Bones has the biggest questions on the team as far as whether he's capable of leading the bench to putting up decent numbers in non-Jokić minutes. It's difficult to exaggerate how horrible they were at this in the past. But this year, I'm truly optimistic even about that. Whereas in years past they were giving real playing time (in the PLAYOFFS) to players like Austin Rivers, Markus Howard and Facu, this year their roster is at least solid eight deep. I mean... unless there's... injuries...  FINAL overly optimistic hope: #1 ORTG, #10 DRTG, FINALS WIN BABY YEAHHH FINAL more realistic prediction: #5 ORTG, #15 DRTG, competitive Western Conference Finals series kingcobweb fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Oct 14, 2022 |
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Oct 14, 2022 21:21
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 03:19 |
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