[Ukraine] can lose. And it should lose, for the sake of the world & for its own sake.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Ukraine] can lose. And it should lose, for the sake of the world & for its own sake.

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Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1587503755066757120

quote:

Director of foreign/defense @AEI
, author of Safe Passage, contributing writer at The Atlantic and War on the Rocks. Californian. RT = said better than I could.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2022 23:13

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 11, 2024 22:04

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/uncle_authority/status/1588010885020270596

# ¿ Nov 3, 2022 23:18

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

HashtagGirlboss posted:

The CPC letter and the push to deplatform BJG are other examples. It�s wild out there

https://twitter.com/briebriejoy/status/1587916575310745601

:ukraine:

can't help but go mask off when they think they can get away with it

# ¿ Nov 3, 2022 23:45

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/briebriejoy/status/1587569238918811650

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 00:26

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

euphronius posted:

did the something awful mod event have any impact on the war ?

KPIs have gone down so the posting bonus for 100k rubles is unlikely to be achieved

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 00:32

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Военный Осведомитель posted:

Фото с прошедшего сбора командного состава ВС Республики Беларусь на полигоне �Осиповичский�. В частности там были продемонстрированы вот такие варианты �кустарного� добронирования БМП-2 и грузовика МАЗ.

@milinfolive

_{(from t.me/milinfolive/92869, via tgsa)}

bespoke belarussian log, tire, and bag armor additions

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 00:55

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Cyberspec News posted:

_{(Click thumbnail to open video)}
Video on T-90M and T-72B3M production & upgrade in UVZ. They say production has increased and modifications implemented based on feedback from the frontline

_{(from t.me/CyberspecNews/11970, via tgsa)}

new tank content for the tankies of cspam

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 01:16

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/korry1389/status/1576124102758178816

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 01:51

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/wyattreed13/status/1586671421933191168

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 06:48

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1588579668986572801?s=20&t=dqp1mJfekkIh4Ph6MAp9mg

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 21:35

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

bongmaster posted:

have a guess

It's that wargame unit that everyone hates but has to use anyways.

What are the odds on M47 Dragons being sent to Ukraine.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 22:56

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Raskolnikov38 posted:

hey you can also use rolands and crotales if you play france or germany

Sadly I like gimmick decks too much for my own good so good NATO AA is a bit hard to come by.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 23:07

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

The actual reason is that it's hard to photoshop an Abrams and Bradley with Z's and launder it as a Russian loss for OSINT to use in their daily navel gazing. :tinfoil:

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 23:15

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

CODChimera posted:

What sort of non-nuclear escalation does Russia have left other than more mobilization?

war economy

# ¿ Nov 5, 2022 20:42

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/MayaSashenka/status/1588925101776711680

# ¿ Nov 5, 2022 20:45

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

# ¿ Nov 6, 2022 05:42

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/NieblaGuerra/status/1588909971965906944

good north korean train news

# ¿ Nov 6, 2022 05:49

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Военная хроника posted:

AFU offensive in Kherson may be halted due to NATO mistake: details

According to the Military Chronicle, the AFU plans to use small infantry units for a breakthrough in the Beryslav direction, equipped with French-made VAB light armored personnel carriers and British Husky TSVs supplied to replace the BTR-70 and BTR-80 8�8 vehicles lost in combat.

By early November, the 28th Mountain Assault Brigade, 60th Infantry Brigade and 46th Brigade of the AFU had been equipped with these types of vehicles by 90%. According to radio intercepts, the command of the 46th Brigade doubts the effectiveness of these vehicles against Russian artillery and in late October appealed to the AFU General Staff with a request to cancel the attack on Beryslav without heavy weapons cover.

According to the Military Chronicle, it became known from radio intercepts of the 46th AFU brigade that the command of this unit was ready to attack in the Beryslav direction only if supported by the 17th AFU Tank Brigade. However, this formation has less than half of the tanks required by the brigade's standard structure in combat ready condition.

Serious damage to French and British APCs in the AFU concentration areas is caused by Giatsint-S and Msta-B guns, as well as 203 mm Malka special power gun division from the AFU artillery arm on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

The Russian Armed Forces artillery's combat operations on the Beryslav direction exacerbated another problem of the AFU - poor availability of spare parts and specialized tires for foreign-made armored personnel carriers.

Due to a mistake made by the NATO shippers of the equipment, the VAB and Husky TSV APCs, as well as the American FMTV M1083 (M777 howitzer transports with a protected cabin) were delivered to Ukraine without spare tires. Fragments of 152mm shells hitting the wheels repeatedly resulted in the armored vehicles having to be scrapped.

The use of third-party rubber and a different size led to transmission overheating, engine failures, and off-road problems.

Before the anticipated November offensive, losses in light armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could reach 70%. After that, Ukrainian troops risk losing the ability to maneuver tactically and will be forced to switch to passive defense.

@milchronicles
*** Translated with https://www.deepl.com/Translator (free version) ***

_{(from t.me/milchronicles/1279, via tgsa)}

history rhymes itself again

# ¿ Nov 6, 2022 19:53

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Majorian posted:

THAT'S it, thanks!

In the meantime, in Makiivka, ~9ish miles from Donetsk city:

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1589334148745158656

things that totally happened

# ¿ Nov 6, 2022 21:20

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Majorian posted:

Eh, I get that, but it seems in-line with other reports of what's going on on the ground:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1589337881705078786

That first guy you're quoting posts every dumb rumor like this and treats it as truth:
https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1587997806136025088

Would post the one where he slapped a photo back from March of a destroyed Ukrainian S300 that he claimed was a result of HARMs but finding quote tweeted stuff is a PITA.

Second guy draws from the same sources as the first guy and uncritically posts every brouhaha pro-Ukraine propaganda victory in some village that can't be named for opsec (aka stdh).

Fundamentally the assertion was based on a story that is extraordinary and something that would have been propagandized by the Ukrainians with numerous photos and videos:

Рыбарь posted:

🖇🇷🇺🇺🇦 About "the deaths of hundreds of mobilized," "elephant radio" and problems with troop management

A publication appeared online about a mobilized man from Voronezh, who claims that his entire battalion was killed in one morning near Makiivka in the LNR. The casualty figures increase as the story goes on: first the fighter's wife says that "more than half the battalion" died, then he himself reports 41 survivors out of 570, and later that "at least one battalion" had been completely defeated there earlier.

🔻How much of this can be true?

To begin with, the death of as many as five hundred men in defense in just one day in a single small area is an extraordinary event. And the hundreds of corpses lying compactly after an artillery bombardment would certainly have been caught by the lenses of the enemy's fighters and copters.

Surprisingly, no shocking footage has ever appeared on the net. Judging by their own internal reports, the AFU themselves are clearly not aware of the sensational event.

🔻So where did the huge numbers from the story of a kind of eyewitness come from?

▪️The basis of such reports is often "elephant radio" - a hodgepodge of rumors from the front lines. This is where stories of Baltic snipers, an underground airfield in Khmelnitsky and a battalion of Poles near Kupyansk come from. On the other side of the front it is the same - the ubiquitous "Chechen divisions" and the Chinese in Donbass.

▪️A similar thing is happening with casualties, where with each new link in the "tainted telephone" the number of killed and wounded is becoming less and less like the real figure. As a result, the death of two people can eventually be transformed into "half a company of guys went down.

▪️Lack of organization plays an important role in stories about the death of entire battalions per battle. Due to the lack of communication, a soldier may honestly believe that all neighboring units are already defeated and dead.

That is why a man who was mobilized for the first time under fire and the chaos in the command of the troops can in all seriousness tell about the enormous losses. Even if he has not personally seen dozens of corpses. And the "elephant radio" adds more details and gradually brings the figures up to hundreds of killed per day.

❗️The most effective way to deal with such stories is to eliminate problems with the organization. When every commander at least knows his location and has contact with headquarters, and when his unit will not consist entirely of untrained mobilized men who are not even afraid of being court-martialled for fleeing their positions.

Otherwise the media space will be flooded with "eyewitness accounts" of divisions destroyed in a day. This will be willingly used by Western and Ukrainian resources with foreign-agent publications to spread panic in the army and society.
#mediatech #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar

*Support us: 4377 7278 0407 7977
*** Translated with https://www.deepl.com/Translator (free version) ***

_{(from t.me/rybar/40927, via tgsa)}

In other words, it's a 'Chinese Telephone' story that was most likely a few dozen guys at most dying that then became exaggerated out of proportion to reality when it was published.

# ¿ Nov 6, 2022 22:03

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Majorian posted:

I think you're conflating two stories that are not actually directly related. The story about the ~570 conscripts who were supposedly almost completely wiped out happened a couple of days ago, and is only being talked about now. I agree that there's reason to doubt the narrative of that incident that's going around twitter right now.

However, the tweet from Chuck Pfarrer is about what's happening right now, ie: offensives and counteroffensives between the Russians and the Ukrainians in and around Makiivka. The same is true of the Warmonitor3 tweet. I agree with you that neither of those two sources are 100% credible, but 100% credibility is hardly something we require ITT when it comes to posting sources and using them to sketch out for ourselves what's actually going on on the frontlines.

Might as well just post a summary for "there's fighting on here":
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1589368440095399936

# ¿ Nov 6, 2022 22:37

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Блокнот Пропагандиста posted:

Exclusive! How the U.S. Defense Department is studying the Russian style of information warfare

The editorial staff of Propagandist Notepad (http://t.me/designersmil) received materials from the Russian Strategic Initiative (RSI), a unit of the US Defense Department based in Stuttgart, Germany, which is engaged in studying Russia. The military is actively engaging Western scientists. For example, in May of this year RSI held a conference on "Information, War and Ukraine. Changes in Russian information warfare tactics were studied. According to K. Keegan of Harvard, Russia's information space can be divided into open, gray and hidden instruments of influence

Keegan believes that prior to the SWO, Russian information warfare materials were thrown in from anonymous channels and then distributed to the audience through the involvement of major media outlets. Now, supposedly, everyone is following the "Official Russian Narrative," which is only developing locally

It's always nice when the enemy is deluded😁

_{(from t.me/designersmil/2287, via tgsa)}

beware of the russian psychohistorians

# ¿ Nov 6, 2022 22:39

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1589528686591897601

# ¿ Nov 7, 2022 19:03

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Intel Slava Z posted:

🇷🇺 The first finished span of the Crimean bridge is directed to the installation site

The builders have started transporting steel structures weighing more than 300 tons, said Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Marat Khusnullin.

_{(from t.me/intelslava/40705, via tgsa)}

beeg span

# ¿ Nov 7, 2022 21:27

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://tass.com/economy/1532963

quote:

Trade turnover between Russia and China up 33% in 10M 2022 � China�s Customs
It amounted to $153.938 billion

BEIJING, November 7. /TASS/. The trade turnover between Russia and China soared by 33% year-on-year to $153.94 bln in January - October 2022, the Main Customs Administration of China reports on Monday.

According to released data, China�s export to Russia gained 12.8% within ten months of this year to $59.6 bln. Imports of Russian goods and services surged by 49.9% to $94.34 bln.

Crude oil, natural gas and coal account for the overwhelming portion in the value of commodities imported by China from Russia. Other key items of export from Russia include copper and copper ore, lumber, fuel and seafood. China is exporting a broad range of products to Russia, with a significant share taken by smartphones, industrial and specialized equipment, toys, footwear, motor vehicles, air conditioners and computers.

The trade turnover between Russia and China gained 35.8% in 2021 and reached record-breaking $146.88 bln.

trade number up up up

# ¿ Nov 7, 2022 21:56

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Таврическая Республика posted:

_{(Click thumbnail to open video)}
🇺🇦 Легкая техника ВСУ не справляется с осенней погодой

📌 Нацики вязнут в своих траншеях, автомобили застревают на дорогах.

https://t.me/Tauride_Republic

_{(from t.me/Tauride_Republic/2619, via tgsa)}

welcome back general mud

# ¿ Nov 7, 2022 22:18

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

IL RUSSO 🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺 posted:

How the neural network sees the Supreme.

_{(from t.me/i20028843/24831, via tgsa)}

the ai does better propaganda than russian propaganda

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 02:07

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

dk2m posted:

that must include civilians too? were there really 115k russian/DLPR troops?

Oblast/region includes the big chunk east of the Dnieper; or it could be civilians and troops since the last count of Russian troops was ~40k.

Danann has issued a correction as of 21:38 on Nov 9, 2022

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 21:35

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

dk2m posted:

yeah makes sense - forgot for a second that Kherson could relate to both the city and the oblast

Russian telegram is a combination of extreme doom (�we got backstabbed�) or parroting Shoigu about saving lives.

ukranian telegram is a mix of extreme distrust and cautious celebration

the gently caress is happening

Ukrainian victory in Kherson came at the cost of a mountain of bodies, lost equipment, and loss of electricity. Compared to Kharkov where it was dashing valor and strategy, winning Kherson was meatgrinding and in the end it was on Russian terms effectively.

That said, the radicalization of Russian society is probably going to see Medvedev and company in power at this rate and attendant consequences.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 21:54

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Dr Kool-AIDS posted:

I'm not doubting that there are more losses, just any kind of certainty about the enormity of the losses and what it says about their continued ability to fight/the Pyrrhic nature of their victory.

The evidence used tends to be showcasing cemetery videos and the usual Ukrainian insider telegrams stating overflows into hospitals and blood drives. Could also try to compile the Russian MoD's claims if you're up for it.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 22:40

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Conspiratiorist posted:

Head of the Kherson occupation administration Kirill Stremousov reportedly died in a car crash while fleeing.

Genichesk is east of Kherson op.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 00:04

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Рыбарь posted:

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Against the background of the information vacuum on both sides around the withdrawal of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper River, reports about the tragic situation at the crossings and the entry of the AFU to Kherson started streaming around the network.

If we discard all the information of unclear origin along with rumors and "spoiled phone", then the following is more or less reliably known:

▪️The withdrawal of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper continues. In the previous days several formations with all their regular equipment had already been withdrawn in full strength.

▪️There are no 20,000 servicemen in Kherson piled up at the crossings. The actual number of troops remaining in the city is much smaller.

▪️Before withdrawing, the Russian Armed Forces mined the positions and part of the facilities to slow down the enemy's advance. This paid off: in the empty Oleksandrivka alone, the AFU lost three armored vehicles and a platoon of fighters wounded and killed.

▪️Reports of Ukrainian units approaching the Kherson or Novaya Kakhovka settlements are also unreliable. In particular, in the Beryslavsky section, even at night, the AFU were only in the vicinity of Melovoye and Novokair.

▪️Ukrainian formations are attempting to strike the crossings near Kherson and Novaya Kakhovka, firing whole packages of HIMARS MLRSs at them. Russian air defenses are working on the targets, and Russian Armed Forces rocket artillery is also hitting AFU positions on the right bank of the Dnieper River.

▪️ Contrary to the information that appeared in the network, the Antonov bridge in Kherson was not destroyed. However, its undermining after the withdrawal of troops is completed looks logical.

The full picture of what is happening will appear only by the morning. And it makes no sense to disperse information of highly dubious content until then.
#Russia #Ukraine #Kherson
@rybar

*Support us: 4377 7278 0407 7977

_{(from t.me/rybar/41051, via tgsa)}

Rybar report on the withdrawal from Kherson.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 01:05

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Slavyangrad posted:

Kherson Withdrawal Complete

By 23.00 on November 10th, 2022, the Russian Army�s grouping of troops in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog theatre of the Ukrainian conflict had completed its task and reached the prepared defensive lines on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

At that time, the furthest-advanced enemy units were still 40 km away from Novaya Kakhovka and 25 km from Kherson.

During the manoeuvre, over 20,000 personnel and about 3,500 pieces of equipment were withdrawn. Equipment losses amounted to 18 vehicles.

� Svarshchiki

Join Slavyangrad
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

_{(from t.me/Slavyangrad/19654, via tgsa)}

Russian evacuation done, mostly intact.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 07:31

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

evilmiera posted:

These are all sure looking like numbers and I am sure they are all correct.

Yeah by now Ukraine would've thrown up photos and videos if a disaster happened.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 08:02

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

МИГ posted:

Антоновский мост под Херсоном сегодня утром. Точнее, его отсутствие

https://t.me/mig41/22121

_{(from t.me/mig41/22124, via tgsa)}

Antonovsky Bridge demoed by Russians.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 09:57

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Raskolnikov38 posted:

400-500k is probably what russia needs to hold the line at this point

It's what they'll have in late December/early January.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 19:28

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-status-kherson-part-russia-unchanged-2022-11-11/

quote:

Kremlin says Kherson's status as 'part of Russia' unchanged despite retreat
November 11, 2022 2:03 AM PST Last Updated 8 hours ago
3-4 minutes

This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine.

MOSCOW, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian forces' withdrawal from Kherson would not change the status of the region, which Moscow has proclaimed part of Russia after moving to annex it from Ukraine.

Russia claimed Kherson and three other Ukrainian regions after holding what it called referendums in September � votes that were denounced by Kyiv and Western governments as illegal and coercive. But on Wednesday, in a major retreat, it announced its forces would pull out of Kherson city in the face of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters the region's status was "fixed" and that no changes were possible.

"It is a subject of the Russian Federation - it is legally fixed and defined. There are no changes and there can be no changes," Peskov said.

He said Russia did not regret announcing the annexation of Kherson and the other three regions in a triumphal ceremony in Moscow on Sept. 30.

War is still going to go on in 2023 and last through 2024.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 19:34

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Intel Slava Z posted:

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Satellite image of the Antonovsky Bridge blown up by the Russian military in the early hours of November 11.

_{(from t.me/intelslava/40919, via tgsa)}

Intel Slava Z posted:

🇷🇺🇺🇦 The Darevsky bridge was also destroyed

_{(from t.me/intelslava/40921, via tgsa)}

Satellite photos of Antonovsky and Darevsky bridges. Russians demoed multiple parts of the former and sunk the latter.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 19:54

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Not So Fast posted:

So did Russia decide what the extent of their claimed borders was then? After the referendums, it was unclear whether they were claiming the entire Oblasts or the state of the border at the time of annexation.

Administrative borders iirc.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 20:11

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 22:04

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Dr Kool-AIDS posted:

Gotta say the pictures out of Kherson so far don't look like a place where 87.05% of voters wanted to be annexed.

The pro-Russian crowd left during the evacuation and any remaining left behind are going to keep their heads down low.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 20:33

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Ukraine] can lose. And it should lose, for the sake of the world & for its own sake.

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