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How much longer is Twitter going to last?
A few weeks
A few months
A few years
About as long as the rest of humanity
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Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
Heh an old colleague of mine manages software engineers that maintain that distribution. Before the deal even started, I was working through a list of things to improve upon using an ongoing job request he had as an example of what I could do after investing all-in at my current job into kernel stuff. He's been very quiet lately . . .

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Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

wint has spoken...
https://twitter.com/dril/status/1590460790347542528?s=20&t=wMjvIjOTNPx_wrogzsUZXg

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
https://twitter.com/nandoodles/status/1590411031519825921

https://twitter.com/themaxburns/status/1590563599030063105

A clown show beyond clown shows.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

How dare you?! Clowns are consummate professionals.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
It's very much like a clown show, if the clown in Sideshow Bob and he's stepping on all the rakes.

Carew
Jun 22, 2006

Young Freud posted:

wint has spoken...

In a reality where this catches on and everyone just blocks blue check marks out of spite, what would be the next step? Make it so nobody can block blues so paying 8 dollars grants you the unstoppable harassment perk?

Inferior Third Season
Jan 15, 2005

Carew posted:

In a reality where this catches on and everyone just blocks blue check marks out of spite, what would be the next step? Make it so nobody can block blues so paying 8 dollars grants you the unstoppable harassment perk?
Not "nobody". Anyone who purchases the $20 per month basic blocking package can block blue check marks. They, of course, cannot block the $50 per month gold check marks - that requires the $75 per month advanced blocking package.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010
https://twitter.com/CaseyNewton/status/1590724257608134657
https://twitter.com/CaseyNewton/status/1590724259114291201
https://twitter.com/CaseyNewton/status/1590725083294990336

The red flags just keep coming. The regulatory risk Twitter is about to get itself into must be enormous.

It's worth noting here that since 2011, Twitter has been under a consent decree with the FTC that requires them to undergo significant scrutiny of any new features, and which imposes significant financial penalties if they mishandle user data. Moreover, earlier this year, they ate a $150 million fine for not complying with the consent decree, and had even more conditions and restrictions added to it as a result. And the potential penalties for pissing off the FTC can get pretty hefty: Facebook paid out $5 billion in 2019 for violating a FTC consent decree.

In that context, it's a massive loving red flag when the C-levels in charge of information security, privacy, and compliance all resign at the same time. Add in a notoriously irresponsible new CEO whose favorite lawyer (Spiro has been working for him for years, both personally and for his companies) is saying he's "not afraid of the FTC", and alarm bells are ringing. Musk is going to burn this poo poo to the loving ground.

Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
Don't you get a consent decree for loving up in the first place?

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Main Paineframe posted:

“Elon is willing to take on a huge amount of risk in relation to his company and its users, because ‘Elon puts rockets into space, he’s not afraid of the FTC.’”
That sounds like Musk is planning to hide from the FTC in space.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Rocko Bonaparte posted:

Don't you get a consent decree for loving up in the first place?

Yes, this is a the result of a user data misuse investigation from before the Musk buyout.

https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/blog/2022/05/twitter-pay-150-million-penalty-allegedly-breaking-its-privacy-promises-again

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Guavanaut posted:

That sounds like Musk is planning to hide from the FTC in space.

“I’m escaping to the one place that hasn’t been corrupted by woke libs… …. SSSSSPACE!”

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Rocko Bonaparte posted:

Don't you get a consent decree for loving up in the first place?

Yep. Twitter got caught loving up in 2011 (mostly feeding users' private data like phone numbers into advertising without their consent), and got a consent decree as part of a settlement with the FTC.

In 2022, they got caught loving up again, and they had to pay a $150 million fine and have the consent decree tightened even further as a result.

Musk is absolutely sowing the seeds of future billion-dollar fines right now. When all the people responsible for preventing that sort of thing are running screaming from the company at the same time, that's a sign that the CEO is not listening to them even slightly.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
I mean technically they won't have to worry about over-sharing information with advertisers if they have no advertisers, which seems to be the plan.

Inferior Third Season posted:

Not "nobody". Anyone who purchases the $20 per month basic blocking package can block blue check marks. They, of course, cannot block the $50 per month gold check marks - that requires the $75 per month advanced blocking package.
They're 100% going to either paywall blocking, or make paid accounts unblockable. The first thing the Elon reply guy troll crew wants is to feel important, and they got that, so now they need the second thing they crave: Forcing people to listen to them. It also completely fits in with their current modus operandi of finding every available rake and stomping it as hard as possible.

OneEightHundred fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Nov 10, 2022

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIČRE IN ME
The Twitter lawyers letter in full, emphasis mine (note that Musk has also demanded that everyone MUST be in the office AT LEAST 40 hours per week)

quote:

Twitter is a remote-first workplace, and has operated as such for years. It is a fundamental change to our employment contracts to require a 40hr a week in-office requirement. I do not, personally, believe that Twitter employees have an obligation to return to office. Certainly not on no notice (it at all).

I also remind all Tweeps (at least in the US) that we have an unlimited PTO policy. All Tweeps are able to take PTO. Perhaps today is a good day to take some rest and recharge.

Everyone here should also know that our CISO, Chief Privacy Officer and Chief Compliance Officer ALL resigned last night. This news will be buried in the return-to-office drama. I believe that is intentional.

Over the last two weeks. Elon has shown that he cares only about recouping the losses he’s incurring as a result of failing to get out of his binding obligation to buy Twitter. He chose to enter into that agreement! All of us are being put through this as a result of the choices he made.

Elon has shown that his only priority with Twitter users is how to monetize them. I do not believe he cares about the human rights activists. the dissidents, our users in un-monetizable regions, and all the other users who have made Twitter the global town square you have all spent so long building, and we all love.

I have heard Alex Spiro (current head of Legal) say that Elon is willing to take on a huge amount of risk in relation to this company and its users, because “Elon puts rockets into space, he’s not afraid of the FTC.” I have heard another leader in the Legal department say that because of the tight SLA’s (of two weeks?!) between product inception > launch, Legal will “have to shift the burden to engineers” to self-certify compliance with FTC requirements and other laws. This will put huge amount of personal, professional and legal risk onto engineers: I anticipate that all of you will de pressured by management into pushing out changes that will likely lead to major incidents.

All of this is extremely dangerous for our users. Also, given that the FTC can (and will!) fine Twitter BILLIONS of dollars pursuant to the FTC Consent Order, extremely detrimental to Twitter’s longevity as a platform. Our users deserve so much better than this.

If you feel uncomfortable about anything you’re being asked to do, you can call Twitter’s Ethics Hotline at (800) 275-4843 or submit a report at ethicshelpline.twitter.com. Please also note the FTC’s number is: 1-877-FTC-HELP. You may also remember that Mudge reached out to httos://whistlebloweraid.org

I wish you all luck. It’s been such an honor to work with all of you. And I’ll be taking a day of PTO today.

Cheesus
Oct 17, 2002

Let us retract the foreskin of ignorance and apply the wirebrush of enlightenment.
Yam Slacker
Wow, with everything else, I didn't catch that Twitter has been a "remote-first" workplace. Changing from that to "always in the office" is amazing.

CellBlock
Oct 6, 2005

It just don't stop.



Cheesus posted:

Wow, with everything else, I didn't catch that Twitter has been a "remote-first" workplace. Changing from that to "always in the office" is amazing.

If they've always been remote-first, there's a pretty good chance they don't even have enough office space for the entire staff to report to for 40 hours a week. (I guess unless they keep sacking people by the thousands.)

Morroque
Mar 6, 2013
Thinking on it, that probably means there isn't enough physical room at the Twitter HQ itself to actually have a non-remote workforce.

... is what I would say, but he's already fired a lot of people...

Edit: Looks like I'm not the only one who thought that...

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Levitate posted:

The Twitter lawyers letter in full, emphasis mine (note that Musk has also demanded that everyone MUST be in the office AT LEAST 40 hours per week)

This is basically "abandon ship!" in all but word.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Sodomy Hussein posted:

This is basically "abandon ship!" in all but word.

Yeah that letter sends a very clear message that working at twitter will literally place you in danger. If you aren't shoved back into an office to increase your covid exposure, you will be ordered to work ridiculous hours that degrade your mental health on stupid projects proposed and instantly killed by the worst boss in the world. You will also be ordered to assume the substantial legal and financial risk associated with his terrible decisions and build a record of professional failure. He can't actually tell people to quit, so he's laying all this out in the clearest possible terms and hoping the engineers are smart enough to put two and two together

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


It's not clear to me whether Elon fired the compliance people or they surrendered on their own, but if he did the former this amounts to malicious mismanagement of the entire company, beyond his regular stupidity.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
So I know this is very incomplete math because daily active users aren't unique, but he wants Twitter's revenue to be 50% subscription.

Last year it made $5b in revenue and had 206M daily active users. In order to make 5b of revenue from $8/mo, it needs 52M subscribers. If he just wants to break even with its current revenue plus the additional billion a year in interest, then it needs 31M subscribers.

So we're talking what? Expecting up to 25% of current Twitter users to start paying $8/mo for a blue checkmark and editing tweets? lmao


Also I just realized this whole thing reminds me a ton of Sears/Eddie Lampert, complete with "we're going to reorient our entire business around this new loyalty program that nobody wants" while undermining the company's most valuable assets, loading it up with debt, acting indistinguishably from actively trying to destroy the company, and then blaming its failure on a difficult market that it was just not able to "transform" to adapt to.

OneEightHundred fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Nov 10, 2022

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


OneEightHundred posted:

So I know this is very incomplete math because daily active users aren't unique, but he wants Twitter's revenue to be 50% subscription.

Last year it made $5b in revenue and had 206M daily active users. In order to make 5b of revenue from $8/mo, it needs 52M subscribers. If he just wants to break even with its current revenue plus the additional billion a year in interest, then it needs 31M subscribers.

So we're talking what? Expecting up to 25% of current Twitter users to start paying $8/mo for a blue checkmark and editing tweets? lmao

If Elon's thinking were serious, there would be few layoffs early on and a prioritization toward launching new features along a number of quarters. Not a bunch of bizarre, unfocused, public edicts based on magical thinking that amount to scuttling the ship.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIČRE IN ME
To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if he basically figures "well if it all crashes and burns so what, I'll try some of my patented Elon magic and I can always just build it up from the ground again if it fails"

which...probably won't work that way

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

haveblue posted:

Yeah that letter sends a very clear message that working at twitter will literally place you in danger. If you aren't shoved back into an office to increase your covid exposure, you will be ordered to work ridiculous hours that degrade your mental health on stupid projects proposed and instantly killed by the worst boss in the world. You will also be ordered to assume the substantial legal and financial risk associated with his terrible decisions and build a record of professional failure. He can't actually tell people to quit, so he's laying all this out in the clearest possible terms and hoping the engineers are smart enough to put two and two together

the letter also sends a very clear message that you should put in writing requests to your boss that you need to follow the law and get fired for that email (keep a copy) and should then sue

which is very clearly the author's goal as well (props to them, about to be a good lawyer looking for a job, someone should hire them)

AegisP
Oct 5, 2008
https://twitter.com/Cat_Zakrzewski/status/1590749773619171328

I'm sure these are the types of statements you love to hear coming from the FTC about your business.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

AegisP posted:

https://twitter.com/Cat_Zakrzewski/status/1590749773619171328

I'm sure these are the types of statements you love to hear coming from the FTC about your business.

Your business which just lost all its legal and compliance heads

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

haveblue posted:

Your business which just lost all its legal and compliance heads

dont worry when the FTC comes knocking and says we are going to fine twitter into oblivion and fine everyone who approved this, i am sure they will listen to elon musk saying "no, see, the engineers self-certified, not me or my lawyers, fine them"

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.
So when Twitter is gone, is there a similar platform people will flock to?

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Willo567 posted:

So when Twitter is gone, is there a similar platform people will flock to?

No. There is nothing else that can fill the role twitter does right now, which is a big reason why it hasn't fully imploded yet. There are some things that will probably get there eventually, like Mastodon, but if Musk burns the whole place down overnight an enormous number of communities, social connections, media networks, etc will just irreparably evaporate.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Yesterday:



And now:

https://twitter.com/ZoeSchiffer/status/1590820944125513728

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
https://twitter.com/stanzipotenza/status/1590741168471494658?s=20&t=Jsq0melHgweYTJ2l4m98ng

EDIT:

:haw:

https://twitter.com/TesIaReal/status/1590820573932052480?s=20&t=Jsq0melHgweYTJ2l4m98ng

Dick Trauma fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Nov 10, 2022

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

haveblue posted:

No. There is nothing else that can fill the role twitter does right now, which is a big reason why it hasn't fully imploded yet. There are some things that will probably get there eventually, like Mastodon, but if Musk burns the whole place down overnight an enormous number of communities, social connections, media networks, etc will just irreparably evaporate.
Well that loving sucks. Couldn't it limp on like MySpace and LiveJournal are doing?

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Been a banner day for Musk

https://twitter.com/business/status/1590823031294894097?s=20&t=lIjKXVwWiYbpfZoV4LuABw

https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1590810660887461888?s=20&t=lIjKXVwWiYbpfZoV4LuABw

https://twitter.com/drewharwell/status/1590822878274097152?s=20&t=lIjKXVwWiYbpfZoV4LuABw

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1590794421418790935?s=20&t=lIjKXVwWiYbpfZoV4LuABw

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
"I told u I was hardcore" --Elon Musk

Willo567 posted:

Well that loving sucks. Couldn't it limp on like MySpace and LiveJournal are doing?

Those are just unpopular, their owners still want them to function and they don't have a totally unmanageable level of debt thrust upon them.

The absolute best case scenario at this point is Musk decides to unload the whole thing to another rich person/corp for pennies on the dollar, take an enormous loss, and disappear into ignominy. If there is an immediate change of leadership, they might be able to bring back enough staff to undo all the policy changes, settle the lawsuits, ban the nazis, and right the ship, after a long and painful period of poo poo. If he tries to stick it out, it's going to get liquidated and sold piecemeal and there will be no way to just flip a switch and turn it back on.

haveblue fucked around with this message at 23:12 on Nov 10, 2022

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIČRE IN ME

haveblue posted:

"I told u I was hardcore" --Elon Musk

Those are just unpopular, their owners still want them to function and they don't have a totally unmanageable level of debt thrust upon them.

The absolute best case scenario at this point is Musk decides to unload the whole thing to another rich person/corp for pennies on the dollar, take an enormous loss, and disappear into ignominy. If there is an immediate change of leadership, they might be able to bring back enough staff to undo all the policy changes, settle the lawsuits, ban the nazis, and right the ship, after a long and painful period of poo poo. If he tries to stick it out, it's going to get liquidated and sold piecemeal and there will be no way to just flip a switch and turn it back on.

I can't imagine his ego will allow him to do that

honestly think he's just going to burn it to the ground and then say he's building it back up with a elite group of his own people and it'll be better than ever with all these new bells and whistles but it'll still suck and no one will use it because they'll have all moved on

Space Cadet Omoly
Jan 15, 2014

~Groovy~


Levitate posted:

I can't imagine his ego will allow him to do that

honestly think he's just going to burn it to the ground and then say he's building it back up with a elite group of his own people and it'll be better than ever with all these new bells and whistles but it'll still suck and no one will use it because they'll have all moved on

No, he'll SAY he's building it back and then just never do it.

Not doing things he says he's going to do is his favorite style of business, which is probably for the best because when he actually does do things it always goes terribly.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

I think it is genuinely amazing to watch something that was a part of everyday life used by a tremendous amount of people both average and influential appear to collapse into irrelevance almost overnight. It isn't gone yet but it feels weird to just picture tweets going away.

Not bad mind you. Just weird.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

haveblue posted:

"I told u I was hardcore" --Elon Musk

Those are just unpopular, their owners still want them to function and they don't have a totally unmanageable level of debt thrust upon them.

The absolute best case scenario at this point is Musk decides to unload the whole thing to another rich person/corp for pennies on the dollar, take an enormous loss, and disappear into ignominy. If there is an immediate change of leadership, they might be able to bring back enough staff to undo all the policy changes, settle the lawsuits, ban the nazis, and right the ship, after a long and painful period of poo poo. If he tries to stick it out, it's going to get liquidated and sold piecemeal and there will be no way to just flip a switch and turn it back on.

Does Jeffrey want to buy Twitter?

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davecrazy
Nov 25, 2004

I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.
In a sane world all Twitter employed would go on strike.

They can organize and make demands.

But we live in a dystopian hellscape.

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