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How much longer is Twitter going to last?
A few weeks
A few months
A few years
About as long as the rest of humanity
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Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Space Cadet Omoly posted:

So, Elon Musk is going to make a lot of bad choices that gently caress up a lot of people's lives and suffer no consequences for his actions, right? Is that where this is all headed?

This entire thing has been Elon scoring own goal after own goal on himself, and has not been without consequences. It's not great for Elon when it looks like he forced himself into a situation where he overpaid for an already troubled company, and his immediate, overdramatic mismanagement is causing the ad revenue to freeze up while he does a very public Trump impersonation. Twitter may implode within a matter of weeks at this point.

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Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Space Cadet Omoly posted:

Yeah, that's kind of my point. Twitter dies, Musk remains rich and moves on to gently caress up something else, and the people who suffer are independent artists who rely on the platform for commission work.

I'm just so tried of incompetent rich people getting to ruin things again and again and again.

There will be a rocky period as people re-assess where to move their business, and that pain is real and worth accounting for, but I think the world can ultimately do without Twitter.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


davecrazy posted:

Are their any 3rd parties have any analysis of Twitter user trends the past week?

Are accounts hemorrhaging followed as people quit the platform or has that not registered yet?

Mastodon registration has blown up, but only on the scale of tens of thousands more.

The content moderation team/election misinformation teams were just slaughtered in roughly the last 24 hours, so we don't yet know how hosed it's going to get.

Name Change fucked around with this message at 02:53 on Nov 5, 2022

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Young Freud posted:

After much fanfare about removing the checkmarks from previous verified users and opening up verification to Twitter Blue, Elon reinvented the blue checkmark for politicians and celebs and then removed verification from Twitter Blue, making it opt-in and even more meaningless...
https://twitter.com/esthercrawford/status/1590109344976470016?t=-HLsDR6oeheOsin5OufzGQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/esthercrawford/status/1590109530452815872?t=AV3QSNlcLNBSIcxYUVAcMQ&s=19

The outcome of everyone going "lol gently caress you" to the idea in real time. Nothing much will change about Twitter except a death spiral of stability.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Levitate posted:

The Twitter lawyers letter in full, emphasis mine (note that Musk has also demanded that everyone MUST be in the office AT LEAST 40 hours per week)

This is basically "abandon ship!" in all but word.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


It's not clear to me whether Elon fired the compliance people or they surrendered on their own, but if he did the former this amounts to malicious mismanagement of the entire company, beyond his regular stupidity.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


OneEightHundred posted:

So I know this is very incomplete math because daily active users aren't unique, but he wants Twitter's revenue to be 50% subscription.

Last year it made $5b in revenue and had 206M daily active users. In order to make 5b of revenue from $8/mo, it needs 52M subscribers. If he just wants to break even with its current revenue plus the additional billion a year in interest, then it needs 31M subscribers.

So we're talking what? Expecting up to 25% of current Twitter users to start paying $8/mo for a blue checkmark and editing tweets? lmao

If Elon's thinking were serious, there would be few layoffs early on and a prioritization toward launching new features along a number of quarters. Not a bunch of bizarre, unfocused, public edicts based on magical thinking that amount to scuttling the ship.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Star Man posted:

How bad does it have to get for the folks on H1B visas to bail out and roll the dice on getting another job before their visa expires?

I would assume most of the people still "working" for Twitter at this point have visa requirements. Three months severance was a good bet to take, as the company may finish evaporating this month.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Space Cadet Omoly posted:

So if Musk bought twitter on a loan is it possible for banks to repo it when he doesn't pay them back?

In normyworld that is what happens, but Elon exists under a different set of rules.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


10 years ago almost every major tech company was moving toward this "live your work, gently caress real life" "revolutionary" approach and it's nice to see it being called out for being grotesque.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Bari was too socially toxic at work and generally dumb to keep a lifetime appointment as token conservative NYT columnist, something many would kill for. Difficult to imagine how low she'll ultimately sink.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Put dril in charge of Twitter.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Ghost Leviathan posted:

Large chunks of the media and their followers have been pretty clearly left adrift without Trump tweets to obsess over. They're absolutely doing to go straight back to them like it's 2016 all over again.

By the end he was tweeting 50+ times a day and I don't think it ever had the same power as, for example, shithousing Jeb Bush at a debate.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


FlamingLiberal posted:

The conservative persecution complex really is something

Telling on themselves again. If I'm not able to persecute, then I must be persecuted.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


FlamingLiberal posted:

Just the most pathetic person on Earth

If I saw a message like that from my boss I would resign immediately

Keep in mind that this stuff with 'engagement' is getting top priority, and meanwhile the advertisers are all gone and at some point this year they have to pay the $1 billion in debt servicing

It will probably be failure to meet this obligation, as well as violation of FTC and EU regulations, that finally destroys the company.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Decon posted:

I'm honestly not buying the joke line anymore.

The dude signed a legally binding contract and was backed by thunderous applause from the worst chuds still left on the site while doing it. It seems like that was "it's a prank bro" style backpedalling when people were pointing out that it was an objectively bad move money-wise.

And now, while he's tearing up long-standing use cases for the site by making the API paid only and while the average ad on the site slips further into trash you see as sidebars on sketchy websites, he's burning what's left of his workforce talent on... getting fewer views than Biden on some throwaway Superbowl tweets.

I genuinely think he's just a validation-driven fuckwit, and that's kinda all there is to it. Besides to say that he seems like he's so validation-driven because he's basically just a pile of daddy issues stuffed into a binder under a Rick and Morty t-shirt.

He has a history of stock manipulation and basically gives no fucks about regulators, laws, or ethics because he thinks rules don't apply to him (they don't... up until a certain point). So yes he may have said he was trying to buy Twitter as part of some lame con, proceeded to try and back out because he was buying in at roughly the worst time possible, and got forced to do it in court by a bunch of shareholders, many of whom were more than happy to drop the bag off on his doorstep.

All that being said, the very idea of buying Twitter probably wouldn't occur to someone at this point who wasn't extremely hosed up. It really made no tactical sense, and he's obviously fine with it being destroyed.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Ghost Leviathan posted:

I've said it before about Trump and Vince McMahon (actual friends, possible siblings) that trying to suck up to a narcissist is pointless because it just means that you're one of the first things around when they want someone to blame or just gently caress over because they're bored. They expect fawning sycophancy as the norm, and don't recognise it as requiring or deserving any kind of special treatment in return.

Or you just hung on because you figured you'd profit from a power vacuum.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Ghost Leviathan posted:

Joke's on them, narcs also never ever let anyone else have any power at all, even and especially when they desperately need to delegate for any actual work to get done. (and even then, they'll micromanage everything to pieces)

Basically hearing a lot about Vince McMahon's weird bullshit explains SO MUCH about people like Trump and Musk. They all do the same poo poo, in any setting and structure. Chris Roberts too.

Yeah we have documented cases where Musk diverts every resource he can to solving personal pet projects of no real importance at Twitter, from the beginning of his takeover to the recent "I have to always be trending" thing. Meanwhile the company is in no position to meet FTC or EU regulatory obligations, but who cares I'm King Musk, gotta use my free time to platform more racists. Any true Musk loyalists at the company at this point probably just got fired or are too far gone to reason with. It matters little whether one waits to be fired or goes of their own volition at Twitter though, Musk will go out of his way to not pay severance.

Vince identifies with Trump because they both see themselves as new money rebels on the east coast, and yes Vince famously micromanages his entire company, down to controlling the lines of the commentators on live TV minute-to-minute. Decades of that. The company will look very different when he finally dies. It almost did before he had the unmitigated gall to re-assume control after being outed as a sex pest who paid tens of millions in hush money, not unlike a certain Donald Trump.

Wrestling is way out of the scope of this thread and is a famously corrupt hole with no bottom, worth its own thread.

For more relevant examples, there's James Dolan, whose use of facial recognition software to ban anyone on his personal shitlist from entering Madison Square Garden may ultimately cause legislation to get on the books to prevent that sort of abuse. Dolan is eerily similar to Trump in that he can't really stay coherent in person and just fixates on random bizarre poo poo: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/26/nyregion/james-dolan-madison-square-garden.html

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Dick Trauma posted:

At my last job I used to fill my whiteboard with mundane Powershell commands in multiple colors. Stuff like the command to create an Active Directory password report. Definitely impressed the few VIP types who passed by.

Glad to hear wizard of Oz desktop tactics are still in practice. Time is a circle.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


I haven't made a close re-examination of Scott Adams' early work, though I'm certain others have, but it's an interesting question to me if he developed into a complete "reverse racism" dork or if people have interviewed old coworkers who noted that he was always like this.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Epic High Five posted:

Every time I follow a link back to twitter, one of his dumbass tweets is always right below the replies. Generally a meme that if I saw it here would be a "go back to Reddit" probation. I had assumed he's been doing this for awhile now. I go there maybe once every couple days and have platform.twitter.com blocked on all websites so it's gotta just be some kind of default thing.

There was a publicly documented push by him to make sure his tweets had maximum engagement, because they were cratering in popularity.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


lol that guy put Elon over a barrel in less than 24 hours with a zero-effort bait tweet

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005



No reason to protect the good name of noted libertarian moron Megan McArdle

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Chieves posted:

:barf:

I also know this is not at all the purpose of the story and is small potatoes in comparison, but I wouldn't have minded Pinterest being fired into the sun just on account of how it ruined Google Image searching.

Not for nothing, but there are addons that automatically exclude pinterest results from GIS (saving you the keystrokes every time).

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Star Man posted:

What is it going to take to actually kill off Twitter? A lot of us speculated that it would be wrecked by the end of the year, but it's still truckin'. Is it going to take bankruptcy and the company being parted out?

- A large fine from the EU or FTC based on legal/regulatory obligations Twitter is not even trying to meet at the moment

- Missing an interest payment, basically

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Republicans posted:

I don't think Taibbi is a Greenwald-level overrated prick and I thought most of the mistakes harped on in the MSNBC segment were petty bullshit but still LOL serves him right for playing toady to Musk for the scoop.

He probably exceeds Greenwald, at the moment I can't think of any instance of Greenwald koolaid-manning through journalistic ethical lines to doxx a narcissistic billionaire's perceived enemies.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005



As we've learned over the last few years, he says a lot of things, does little

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Mastodon is about as useful as Discord, that is to say, not useful at all as a replacement for Twitter.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


I have some people in my network that like to use TeamSpeak among themselves, but they all have being old af and general hatred of change in common. Sort of a Winamp diehard thing.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Clarste posted:

It's for talking for your friends. It's built for the size of a WoW guild or whatever. It's not a forum.

In practice you have 1-2 Discords you use and 20 you look at once and never visit again

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Save us Jack!

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Jack purposefully constructed Twitter to be vulnerable to takeover, so this disaster is as much his fault as anyone's. Also he was pretty much the last person to just give up on Elon.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


GIPHY still exists, at least until Shutterstock realizes that image repository sites are never profitable.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


This is the completely wrong regulatory environment to launch a new superapp (and has been since about 2016), Twitter is a bad platform for it anyway, and Musk is totally incompetent. Big things coming.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


I feel like if Mastodon were going to overtake Twitter, it would have by now. As it is the decentralization theme just makes it overcomplicated and... decentralized.

Threads somehow launched without a bunch of stone age basic features, like a desktop app, which is simply wild. Might have something to do with the music stopping on interest rates that a lot of these companies can't seem to launch anything correctly.

It's also run by a guy who really only delegates better than Musk, other than that they are roughly the same person ideologically. Imagine even entertaining having a boxing match with Musk. It takes a lot to push Meta out of the papers for stories about sheer executive incompetence/malice, and Musk did it.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


BRJurgis posted:

:drat:

I know this isn't the musk thread, but it's great how much people who boosted him don't want to talk about him now. Purely anecdotal, but still gratifying in that emperor has no clothes way. Haven't heard "mars" or "his battery" in awhile.

It takes a special talent to start losing terminally online right-wingers.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


The ADL doesn't have much directly to do with the disintegration of Twitter or even the proliferation of rival right wing nationalists there. Twitter is increasingly becoming an irrelevant playground for radioactive conservative viewpoints.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


The dumb way that Dorsey structured Twitter led directly to its takeover and destruction by Musk, so he's as much to blame for what's happened to the "public square" and thousands of jobs as Musk is. So it's definitely worth worrying about how much control he has over Bluesky.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


haveblue posted:

I think they're talking about how Facebook is still permanently controlled by Zuck because his personal holdings are a different stock class that holds outsize voting power and no one can buy enough of the public class to dislodge him if he doesn't want to be dislodged

The only response to that is that not every company can be Facebook (thank god)

That is essentially it, yes, and the Musk intrigues are not the first time that Twitter has gotten into trouble with activist investors.

quote:

Twitter lacks a crucial defense against activist shareholders that Silicon Valley peers like Facebook and Google enjoy: It has only one class of stock. That means Mr. Dorsey has no special super-voting shares that give him outsize control of the company, leaving him vulnerable if enough shareholders side with Elliott.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/business/dealbook/elliott-twitter-jack-dorsey.html

The other issue is that Dorsey by pretty much all accounts was as mercurial and disinterested in competently managing Twitter as Musk is, given he was fired from the job twice. As opposed to running his brand of being a Steve Jobs figure.

So, yes, you can't really blame the board or Dorsey when Musk wants to radically overpay for a perennially underperforming, increasingly irrelevant/stagnant company. But it's the structure of the company and Dorsey's absentee leadership that led to this.

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Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


evilweasel posted:

investors only tolerate that kind of stuff if the founder is regarded as competent instead of a burnout, and it is exceptionally rare historically, it's just a handful of tech companies had founders with the clout to do it at one moment in time because they, personally, were viewed as critical to the success of the company.

twitter did have a poison pill, but the thing you have to remember is: elon musk offered easily twice what twitter was worth. twitter is a for-profit company and wants to be bought for twice its value. its investors want it to be bought for twice its value. something that stops elon musk from dumping way too much money on twitter would have been bad for twitter.

plus dorsey is hardly someone you wanted to lock in as eternal god-emperor of twitter, the guy is a burnout moron, he just looks vaguely better than elon musk which is not high praise

I think we generally agree

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