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Mickolution
Oct 1, 2005

Ballers...I put numbers on the boards
Hi All,

Welcome to the World Cup gambling thread.

Couple of rules first of all:
- Don't turn this thread into an argument about the rights/wrongs of gambling, bookies or sponsorship.
- If someone posts a bet or a tip that you follow and it doesn't come up, that's on you. Don't start any poo poo with whoever posted it. A discussion is fine, but it's not their fault if you made a bad decision.


I use PaddyPower myself, so that's where most of the odds/specials I post will be from. If anyone sees a better price for anything, please post it.

Here's the outright odds as of today:


I don't really follow international football outside of major tournaments, but 10/1 on Germany seems high. I know they've been poor for the last couple of tournaments, but when is the last time Germany have been poo poo for three in a row? Not the most analytic approach, but something I'm going to consider. They came in to 9/1 a while ago when they battered France in the Nations League, but have since gone out again.

I think the over here will be my main bet for the tournament:


Since moving to 32 teams, it would have come up in half of the WCs, including the last two, so hopefully it'll be at least close going into the last few games.

Here are some fun specials PP are also running:








If there's any interest in this thread, I'll post odds for the individual matches as the tournament progresses.


So post your tips, opinions on odds/bets or anything else interesting you come across during the tournament.

Mickolution fucked around with this message at 11:45 on Nov 11, 2022

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mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy
Great idea for a thread, looking forward to yelling at my TV because Uruguay conceded too many corners or some poo poo.

As a bit of cross promotion, a quick reminder once the WC is done that we have a general sports betting thread over in PitR and it'd be great to see folks putting bets on stuff other than handegg

Mickolution
Oct 1, 2005

Ballers...I put numbers on the boards
Nice one, I've posted a link to this thread in there.

Masonity
Dec 31, 2007

What, I wonder, does this hidden face of madness reveal of the makers? These K'Chain Che'Malle?
For anyone who doesn't understand how fractional odds work (as opposed to decimal), a good example is England. At 7/1 to win outright, that means if you put £10 on England to win the world cup, you lose £10.

NinpoEspiritoSanto
Oct 22, 2013




Masonity posted:

For anyone who doesn't understand how fractional odds work (as opposed to decimal), a good example is England. At 7/1 to win outright, that means if you put £10 on England to win the world cup, you lose £10.

lmao

the sex ghost
Sep 6, 2009

Masonity posted:

For anyone who doesn't understand how fractional odds work (as opposed to decimal), a good example is England. At 7/1 to win outright, that means if you put £10 on England to win the world cup, you lose £10.

britishbornandbread
Jul 8, 2000

You'll stumble in my footsteps

Masonity posted:

For anyone who doesn't understand how fractional odds work (as opposed to decimal), a good example is England. At 7/1 to win outright, that means if you put £10 on England to win the world cup, you lose £10.

careful with that one, it's an antique.

Wazzerphuk
Feb 9, 2001

Hating Chelsea before it was cool
Winner of the PWM POTM for September
Winner of the PWM POTM for January
Co-Winner of the PWM POTM for March
45/1 on a Qatar 1-0 win and a red card in the match, for all of your "this tournament is definitely rigged" opening day enjoyment

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

qatar+260, sure fine

also a couple random props
Netherlands most goals group stage+1100
Yunus Musah young player of the tournament +12400 (lol)
Costa Rica 0 group stage goals +400

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Harry Maguire to score a header against Iran @ 20/1 with a £3 free bet

the sex ghost
Sep 6, 2009
Done a couple of quid on an England/Netherlands/USA treble at 5/1 and draw/under 2.5 goals at I think a very generous 4/1. Bet on the opposite of this for massive profits

NinpoEspiritoSanto
Oct 22, 2013




the sex ghost posted:

Done a couple of quid on an England/Netherlands/USA treble at 5/1 and draw/under 2.5 goals at I think a very generous 4/1. Bet on the opposite of this for massive profits

Wales are gonna clown on the US mate what you doin

the sex ghost
Sep 6, 2009
I have to back my American boys. I believe that they will win

the sex ghost
Sep 6, 2009
I believed that they would win so much that I cashed out before the game kicked off. A wise choice

Aggro
Apr 24, 2003

STRONG as an OX and TWICE as SMART
So far betting Under 2.5 on every game has cashed except England v Iran so I’m going to continue this strategy.

Mickolution
Oct 1, 2005

Ballers...I put numbers on the boards
Wasn't online yesterday, but went for Kane anytime scorer (lost, obvs, though evens was a good price) and Netherlands -1 (won, just about).

I'm on Argentina -2 (always risky) at 11/10 for this game now. Think I'll sit out the middle two games today though.

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
got caught out by the 10am start, snuck in a messi hat trick at 10/1

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
where can I find a bookie who'll take +5.5 mins of injury time in any and all halves

stab
Feb 12, 2003

To you from failing hands we throw the torch, be yours to hold it high
So what was the payout on a straight Saudi win lol

the sex ghost
Sep 6, 2009
Every Saudi player except the one I picked got booked apparently. The streak continues

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮

stab posted:

So what was the payout on a straight Saudi win lol

+2700

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


stab posted:

So what was the payout on a straight Saudi win lol

Caesar's also runs a both teams to score & the team to win as a bet. Not sure what the odds were though, probably pretty high for both teams to score and Saudi win :lol:

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Anyone have Japan? Were also going for four digits after the first Germany goal!

Pedri, Rodri & Ferran Torres to score against Costa Rica @ 50/1 and each of them separately/together
Pedri and Rodri @ 20/1
Ferran Torres and Rodri @ 12/1
Ferran Torres and Pedri @ 7/1
Rodri @ 5/1
Pedri @ 11/4
Ferran Torres @ 6/5

Collateral
Feb 17, 2010
Starting to think a cheeky fiver on an outsider to win when 1-0 down at half time is going to pay out a few more times. Japan were 35-1.

Total Meatlove
Jan 28, 2007

:japan:
Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;
I got them to win at 7.5 pre match

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
nice haul Total Meatlove, you are better at throwing money in a furnace than me

ronald to score 3 and portugal to win 3-0 @ 200/1

neymar 1+ shot on target in each half @ 3/1

Total Meatlove
Jan 28, 2007

:japan:
Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;
Argentina v Mexico is 41.00 for 6+ Corners and 30 Booking Points each team

Collateral
Feb 17, 2010
What is a booking point? 2 for a yellow 5 for a red?

Wazzerphuk
Feb 9, 2001

Hating Chelsea before it was cool
Winner of the PWM POTM for September
Winner of the PWM POTM for January
Co-Winner of the PWM POTM for March

Collateral posted:

What is a booking point? 2 for a yellow 5 for a red?

As much as I love the idea of both teams getting six players sent off, no. It's 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red

Collateral
Feb 17, 2010

Wazzerphuk posted:

As much as I love the idea of both teams getting six players sent off, no. It's 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red

Ok OK, so what do you mean by 41? Best I am getting from PaddyP is 5/2. Though that is above 2.5 cards each, over 6.5 corners total.

I'm more of a horses with fractional odds man so footy betting outside of corner spot bets is a mystery to me. Lots of conditions multiplying low odds afaict.

The Big Jesus
Oct 29, 2007

#essereFerrari

Total Meatlove posted:

Argentina v Mexico is 41.00 for 6+ Corners and 30 Booking Points each team

Fun bet. I tried to tail but looks like none of my services have booking pts

Wazzerphuk
Feb 9, 2001

Hating Chelsea before it was cool
Winner of the PWM POTM for September
Winner of the PWM POTM for January
Co-Winner of the PWM POTM for March

Collateral posted:

Ok OK, so what do you mean by 41? Best I am getting from PaddyP is 5/2. Though that is above 2.5 cards each, over 6.5 corners total.

I'm more of a horses with fractional odds man so footy betting outside of corner spot bets is a mystery to me. Lots of conditions multiplying low odds afaict.

I'm not sure where the original bet came from - Sky and Paddy Power both do booking points, so possibly one of them. Obrix please advise.

I'd guess it must have been 6+ corners each, since otherwise those odds seem super long. It's actually 55/1 at Bet365, and they're also doing a 25% boost on bet builders on that match, so it comes out close to a very nice 69/1

Total Meatlove
Jan 28, 2007

:japan:
Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;
Yer sorry I thought I attached a picture, it was 6 each and 30 each at sky bet.

41 is decimal odds, equivalent to 41/1. I’ve found switching across took a week but then I’m not trying to do 5/2 * 3/1 * 9/2 in my head for odds and stuff.

I had a free £1 bet so it seemed long enough to be worth it, but if Argentina get to half time without scoring I could see them losing a lot of heads across the pitch.

Total Meatlove
Jan 28, 2007

:japan:
Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;
For booking points, at least on sky bet;

quote:

For the purpose of booking point markets, yellow cards are worth 10 points and red cards are worth 25 points. If a player receives 2 yellow cards, and is consequently shown a red card, they receive a total of 35 booking points.

Collateral
Feb 17, 2010
I don't think its coming off.

Total Meatlove
Jan 28, 2007

:japan:
Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;
It really isn’t. win some, lose more

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


Seems like just taking the 2.5 under on every game is a good way to end up ahead...

FullLeatherJacket
Dec 30, 2004

Chiunque può essere Luther Blissett, semplicemente adottando il nome Luther Blissett

Total Meatlove posted:

41 is decimal odds, equivalent to 41/1.

technically 41.00 is equivalent to 40/1, as it includes the initial stake (hence 1/3 odds would be shown as 1.33 rather than 0.33)

which means that if you put £10 on england at 41.00 you lose ten pounds

Aggro
Apr 24, 2003

STRONG as an OX and TWICE as SMART

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

Seems like just taking the 2.5 under on every game is a good way to end up ahead...

I’m up 5 units so far

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Collateral
Feb 17, 2010
Paddy Power have a £5 free bet builder on Wales v England, so my buildabet is:

Raheem Sterling Assist 9/4
Over 8.5 corners. 12/20
Wales most Cards 4/6
Handicap England (+1) 1/16

About 10/1

Its free so...

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