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cunningham
Jul 28, 2004
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cgrEA6eQ_g

History. "We Don't Talk About Those Years"

This is TRP, not D&D, so we're not here to talk about about those years. We're talking about those years, the ones that saw in-fighting, accusations of racism, and, bizzarely, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.* A cringe thing that emerged from this row was the nickname "bling-bling gang," which included Mesut Özil, İlkay Gündoğan, and Jerome Boateng, three extravagant footballers of color. I'm sure their race had nothing to do with the nickname. They just like shiny things!

*OK, a little D&D: Turkish-German relations are, putting it mildly, really really tricky. There is a lot of anti-Turkish sentiment, particularly among those on the political far-right that are starting to gain prominence again. Özil and Gündoğan taking pictures with Erdoğan had political implications that went beyond football, caused a real stir, etc., but they were really put in a tight spot. OK, D&D over.

Heading into WC 2018, Die Nationalmannschaft were defending Weltmeister, having reached the quarterfinals every year since 1982.* In fact, Germany are arguably the most successful national team, having won four titles, four second-place finishes, and four third-place finishes in 19 Cups.

*FIFA considers only those teams managed by the Deutscher Fussball-Bund to be "German": Germany under Nazi rule (1933-1945), West Germany (1949-1990), and modern-day, reunified Germany (since 1990). Sorry, Joachim Streich :(

In WC 2018 qualifying, Germany (ranked #1) dominated, going 10-0 and outscoring opponents 43-4 (sorry San Marino). Once the team landed in Russia, however, the wheels came off: an uninspired 0-1 loss to Mexico, a "holy poo poo, we might actually lose to Sweden" that turned into a heart-stopping 2-1 win, and a 0-2 loss to South Korea where both goals were conceded in stoppage time. Bottom of the table, Group F. Euro 2020 was marginally better, but still a far cry from their champion form of the 1970s and 1980s.

To say that this is a side that has a lot to prove is the understatement of the year.

The Squad. "Flick's Picks"

Coach: Hansi Flick.

Took over for Joachim Löw in 2021. Was head coach of FC Bayern München from 2019-2021, where his teams won a lot of matches because he's a great coach. And the club is loaded and buys all the best players. But I'm sure it's because he's a great coach.

Flick has been throwing out a lot of 4-2-3-1 lately, so my predicted starting XI are based on that.

Goalkeepers:

Manuel Neuer (Bayern München, captain)
Marc-André ter Stegen (Barcelona)
Kevin Trapp (Eintracht Frankfurt)


Neuer is one of the best goalkeepers of all time, and this will be his 4th - and likely last - World Cup. If something disasterous happens and one of the other two have to hit the pitch, I hope it's ter Stegen who has the best nickname a German keeper could have ("The Berlin Wall").

Defenders:

Armel Bella-Kotchap (Southampton)
Matthias Ginter (SC Freiburg)
Christian Günter (SC Freiburg)
Thilo Kehrer (West Ham United)
Lukas Klostermann (RB Leipzig)
David Raum (RB Leipzig)
Antonio Rüdiger (Real Madrid)
Nico Schlotterbeck (Borussia Dortmund)
Niklas Süle (Borussia Dortmund)


Rüdiger was one of my favorite (only?!) players to watch at WC 2018 and I think he slides into center back. Raum (24) and Schlotterbeck (22) are young and untested, but are likely to start. The last spot could go to "true" center back Süle, or they could slot Jonas Hofmann (later) into the back-right and be a more attacking defender. I don't like that against the likes of Spain and Japan, but I guess we'll see. Mats Hummels (hurt) and Jerome Boateng (old and sucks) are out, making the back line a bit of a question mark.

Midfielders:
Julian Brandt (Borussia Dortmund)
Serge Gnabry (Bayern München)
Mario :goatsecx: (Eintracht Frankfurt)
Leon Goretzka (Bayern München)
İlkay Gündoğan (Man City)
Jonas Hofmann (Borossuia Mönchengladbach)
Joshua Kimmich (Bayern München)
Thomas Müller (Bayern München)
Jamal Musiala (Bayern München)
Leroy Sané (Bayern München)


I told you that Bayern (Buyern?) buys all the best players! Outside of Neuer (also Bayern), this is the biggest strength of the side. The most exciting name here is Musiala: he is 19 and a dynamic playmaker at Bayern. He might be an attacking substitute if we are down late, but I would really like to see what he can do for a full 90. Check out this highlight reel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PYsxyo_buQ

Kimmich and Gündoğan are sure to feature in the back of the midfield. If Süle starts on the back line, I think Hofmann slides up to right winger; I like him there better anyway. Sané got shafted 4 years ago by Löw, and I think he starts now as an attacking mid. The last selection is tough. I like Gnabry over Götze and Müller: Götze cemented his place in German football history when his goal denied Messi and Argentina a WC title in 2014, but was left off the squad in 2018. Müller is second-oldest (to Neuer), and has clearly lost a step; still, he plays a solid, smart attacking style and could be substituted for a fresh, young striker later in matches. I dunno, let's see what's up front.

Strikers

Karim Adeyemi (Borussia Dortmund)
Niclas Fullkrug (Werder Bremen)
Kai Havertz (Chelsea)
Youssoufa Moukoko (Borussia Dortmund)


In my mind, this is our biggest weakness. 34 caps, 30 for Havertz. Havertz is tall (6'4"), and started in 2018 but was clearly outmatched at age 19. He's not a prolific goal scorer (3 in 12 games at Chelsea, 8 in 29 last year), so I will have the antacids handy if I see his name on game day. The other interesting name here is Moukoko: he's 17 (nearly 18) and was a bit of a surprise call-up. I haven't seen him play, but I'm reading that he's quick, and he played beside Haaland at Dortmund for 2 years, so maybe he's learned some things. The big loss here is Timo Werner, who has a ligament tear and is out for the season. I would have felt much more comfortable with Werner up top and Havertz as a substitute, but them's the breaks.

cunningham's XI. "Finger is Nowhere Near the Pulse."

Neuer
Raum, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Süle
Kimmich, Gündoğan
Sané, Hofmann, Gnabry (or Musiala)
Havertz (or Muller)

Group, Fixtures, and Outlook.

Germany (ranked #12) are in Group E, along with Spain (7), Japan (23), and Costa Rica (31).

23 November 16:00 AST (08:00 EST) v. Japan
27 November 22:00 AST (14:00 EST) v. Spain
1 December 22:00 AST (14:00 EST) v. Costa Rica

We will know in the first 45 minutes how far Germany will go. If we play our disciplined, control the midfield style possession game, I think we will advance out of the group stage and win a match or two in the knockouts. If we are timid or over-aggressive, we will struggle again to get out of the group. Still, 3 points from Costa Rica should be a given, and then it's a matter of holding our own with Japan and Spain. We should be able to take a W over Japan, but Spain will be a challenge. I'll be aggressive and say we finish second, behind Spain and above Japan, Costa Rica. If we finish second, we will have a tough draw with likely Belgium. That might mean another early exit, but at least face would be saved.

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cunningham
Jul 28, 2004

Eau de MacGowan posted:

wait, goetze's going? I thought he had some kind of terrible degnerative condition with his nervous system or something
Yes, myopathy. Sounds like he got better?

lilbeefer posted:

If this squad is Flick's Picks then Löw's squad was Picks Eats
Jogi's Bogeys?

cunningham
Jul 28, 2004
Yeah, this isn't our strongest team we've had, but I think we get out of the group stage without too much worry.

If we dont show up against football powerhouse Oman today, I might get concerned.

Speaking of, they are playing right now and this is the lineup:

Neuer
Raum, Ginter, Kehrer, Klostermann
Goretzka, Gundogan
Sane, Havertz, Hofmann
Moukoko

Posting from work, so I can't tell if this is a WC preview or resting the starters (likely both). No score 30 minutes in.

cunningham
Jul 28, 2004
That rots that Sane is hurt; I expected them to start Müller, and Flick does not disappoint (from Guardian):

The teams

Germany: Neuer, Sule, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Raum, Kimmich, Gundogan, Gnabry, Muller, Musiala, Havertz.
Subs: Ginter, Kehrer, Goretzka, Fullkrug, Gotze, Trapp, Klostermann, Brandt, Hofmann, Sane, Gunter, ter Stegen, Adeyemi, Kotchap, Moukoko.

Japan: Gonda, Sakai, Itakura, Yoshida, Nagatomo, Tanaka, Endo, Junya Ito, Kamada, Kubo, Maeda.
Subs: Kawashima, Yamane, Taniguchi, Shibasaki, Doan, Mitoma, Minamino, Morita, Tomiyasu, Asano, Machino, Ueda, Schmidt, Soma, Hiroki Ito.

Excited to see what Musiala can do. Would not be surprised to see Müller subbed off at halftime for Hofmann.

cunningham
Jul 28, 2004
It was a bold move for Flick to tell the entire back line to hit the showers after 60 minutes, but Hansi's a bold man.

Rüdiger clowning around made those late goals all the more frustrating. Say what you will about Boateng, at least he would have steamrollered Doan before he could get behind him.

Havertz played the role of Man Who Is Constantly Offside brilliantly, I thought.

Raum sacrificing his backside for a penalty shows how much he loves his country.

Musiala will be special if/when he figures out how to finish.

We really need the Ticos to manage a point against Spain, but :checks scores: they are currently down 2 not a half hour in, so new plan! Germany winds up 3rd in Group E on goal differential.

Somebody fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Nov 23, 2022

cunningham
Jul 28, 2004
Completely novice match report:

Neuer played well in the back, though he did have some seriously dodgy moments, especially in the back of the second half where he thought his back line had done a successful offside trap, which is rich considering our back line are poo poo.

Raum was fantastic: did a great job of corralling (Torres?) on the right, spent a ton of time pushing forward and being an ersatz striker.
Süle was fine, though he did get beat on Morata's goal.
Rüdiger...ugh...I love you and I hate you. Got a little enthusiastic on the set piece that could have been a goal, and, like Raum, played a solid attacking back.
Kehrer got a card that was deserved, and played fine.
Schlotterbeck, on in the last minutes as defensive reinforcements, almost blew it for us by not playing the offside trap, which is inexcusable.

Goretzka was a beast and "Schweinsteiger-lite" by smacking guys around, and was able to land a stick pick that bodied Busquets, which nobody - even Busquets' mom - would fault him for.
Kimmich needs to practice his set pieces.
Gündoğan was pretty absent, as was Gnabry.
Musiala played well, though I feel like he was trying too hard to make things happen. He's certainly the only man on the pitch who can move around with the ball with any flair, and opponents can expect that.
I loved seeing Müller up top only for the fact that it meant Kai "Doofus Who Can't Score" Havertz was relegated to the bench.

The real men of the match:
Niclas Füllkrug was electric up top. Scored once, could have scored a second had Musiala found him in front of the net. He needs to start against CRC.
Leroy Sane is back from injury and was a dynamo on the left. Created so many chances in his few minutes on the pitch. I hope he starts against CRC, too.

In sum: Boy, did we luck out by CRC beating Japan, otherwise we are on the outside looking in. Still, we need a win against the Ticos, and we want it to be a decisive one. I thought we showed up decently against a strong Spanish side, and it needs to be noted that the Spaniards missed a few super easy shots in front of our net. Could have easily been 3-1 down. I say, let's take the draw and look forward to the next match.

cunningham
Jul 28, 2004

elbkaida posted:

Some advanced stats for you: Mueller vs Spain and Havertz vs Japan had the same number of shots (0). I think there's some weird thing going on with both of them where either the system we have just doesn't suit their strengths or they're not getting the right support. Having a target/focus player up front might just be better for the rest of the midfield to play off of. Fuellkrug up top with Havertz as a 10 would be interesting to see but not sure Flick wants that.
I will certainly concede that the style of play could be influencing their stats, but I am mostly reacting to WC 2018 where Havertz either missed opportunities or failed to create them. I didn't see that change much against Japan, so I will hold onto my "my eyes don't lie, he's just not right for the squad" opinion. Havertz has 0 WC goals and Müller had 4 in his first :shrug:

Miro Klose and Lukasz Podolski are tough boots to fill, of course.

Germany are at their best when their high midfield sets up left-right passes near the top of the box, leaving their striker free to dink in misplays from the keeper. That's certainly not Musiala's game. A lot of energy was zapped into the side when Sane and Füllkrug entered the pitch, though it might not be sustainable if they are in the starting XI.

cunningham
Jul 28, 2004

tristeham posted:

havertz wasn't there in 2018 lol
Well, if that isn't the Mandela Effect in action. Upon reflection, I must have been thinking of Euro 2020, because I seriously don't get to watch that much German football here in the American Midwest, and I distinctly remember yelling at him through my television. Maybe he missed some really stupid, easy touch-ins? OK, Kai, you win this round. You're still a non-scoring doofus, even if your non-scoring is from other major tournaments and/or I dislike you for the wrong reasons.

Content: What is next for Germany? What can we do and how can we do it?

TL;DR. We have to win. If we don't win, we're done.

If Germany win, that gives us 4 points. Solid, yet not respectable.

If Germany and Spain win, then Spain finish first and Germany finish second. This is maybe the likely scenario, unless Spain decides to punt it against Japan, because they have a comfortable goal differential.

If Germany win and Spain lose, Germany would have to win by eight to advance on goals differential. Japan would win the group, and Germany would be number 2.

If Germany win and Spain ties with Japan, then Germany would have to win by more than 1 goal to beat the differential. In that case, they advance and poor Japan go home early.

My expectation is that Germany will play as if Spain will beat Japan, so they come out swinging: this is not a "gently caress around and win 1-0" type of game for them. This means they will either score 2 and end it there - gone are the days of annihilating Brazil - or they will concede early, start pouting, and go out in frustration for the second straight cup.

cunningham
Jul 28, 2004

ephex posted:

Could you provide your favourite starting XI of the GMNT in code tags please?
If you're having a go, I don't get it, but if I were Hansi, this is what I would throw out tomorrow:

Neuer
Raum Süle Rüdiger Kehrer
Gündoğan Goretzka
Gnabry Musiala Sané
Füllkrug

Note a complete lack of Müller.

Likely, we will see Kimmich and Müller instead of Sané and Füllkrug; the former because of fitness, the latter because of...I'm not sure.

Code tags good for you?

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cunningham
Jul 28, 2004

webmeister posted:

Love that Twitter flagged this as potentially sensitive content
Lol, same, especially after all the poo poo I've been lobbing at Havertz for :checks watch: 2+ years.

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