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Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
Who needs oil reserves, we need bourbon reserves

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downout
Jul 6, 2009

Trump proved the reserves are worthless as long as half the electorate is insane so gently caress it, time to party.

GramCracker
Oct 8, 2005

beauty by stroll
Cleared out some fun money that was just going sideways in a play that I thought would pan out (I'm looking at you, Hagerty :argh:), and I'm looking to reallocate it into gas. Any reason to avoid $PSX? From the reading/digging I've done this appears to be somewhat undervalued

edit: any reasons to avoid a gas play altogether?

GramCracker fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Nov 30, 2022

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Does anyone know a good data source for percent of companies reducing or raising guidance in current quarter earnings season?

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


hmm, saintonan pointed me toward https://insight.factset.com/ which has (usually weekly) blog posts following earnings season, including guidance revision metrics. Unless there's a more frequently updated public source, that seems to be the go-to.

Also a good link for the OP, lots of data at that site.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Agronox posted:

I'll give exact return figures once it's done.

Punched out of the PCPC liquidation trade I mentioned earlier at $10.08 today. (I estimate its final per share value at $10.099 in two weeks, so whatever.)

IRR ended up being 8.4% annualized. Nice trade, albeit a boring one.

If the new buyback tax doesn't apply to SPAC dissolutions (apparently the IRS is still figuring it out) I'll probably do more of these next year.

Pastrami
May 27, 2004
Fear the Lunch Meat

Agronox posted:

Punched out of the PCPC liquidation trade I mentioned earlier at $10.08 today. (I estimate its final per share value at $10.099 in two weeks, so whatever.)

IRR ended up being 8.4% annualized. Nice trade, albeit a boring one.

If the new buyback tax doesn't apply to SPAC dissolutions (apparently the IRS is still figuring it out) I'll probably do more of these next year.

2023 portfolio composition:
NAV spac redemptions
3-6 month tbills
Short 3200% otm UPST calls 🤣

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rigel-stock-soars-after-fda-approves-leukemia-treatment-2-days-after-receiving-delisting-notice-2022-12-02

Sometimes dreams do come true

SavageGentleman
Feb 28, 2010

When she finds love may it always stay true.
This I beg for the second wish I made too.

Fallen Rib
:siren:Public service announcement::siren:
VIX has gone <20 on Friday and the CNN Greed vs Fear index has also risen to the highest level in months - both have been indicators for a coming crash < 2 weeks after signal in 2022. Be careful with investing in stocks right now, better stay in cash so you can grab cheap stuff after a correction.




For people saying that we almost never have a crash in December - remember 2018? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ibz-nJodjlg

SavageGentleman fucked around with this message at 11:22 on Dec 3, 2022

Artonos
Dec 3, 2018
I'm convinced after the jobs number this week the Fed is going to be hawkish on the 14th in their wording. Even if they only raise 50 points.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G

Artonos posted:

I'm convinced after the jobs number this week the Fed is going to be hawkish on the 14th in their wording. Even if they only raise 50 points.

50 bips. That's my guess. Good new thread.

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

Another day, another 52 week low for SOFI

lol

wynott dunn
Aug 9, 2006

What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?
whoops, there goes the neighbourhood

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1600152973278998528?t=zXO2TXEt0oqTBGwPHeRqYg&s=19

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

Dang

pseudanonymous
Aug 30, 2008

When you make the second entry and the debits and credits balance, and you blow them to hell.

Must be weird to be famous for giving bad market reads and financial advice, but I guess he gets paid to be a finance clown.

SavageGentleman
Feb 28, 2010

When she finds love may it always stay true.
This I beg for the second wish I made too.

Fallen Rib
Dude really deserves his pay when you assume that his main job is to turn retail traders into bagholders whenever MM need them to be.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
Cramer should have to wear a cheerleader outfit and no this isn't some fetish I have.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Oscar Wild posted:

Cramer should have to wear a cheerleader outfit and no this isn't some fetish I have.

Why? He already has a clown mask on

Pastrami
May 27, 2004
Fear the Lunch Meat

SavageGentleman posted:

Dude really deserves his pay when you assume that his main job is to turn retail traders into bagholders whenever MM need them to be.

Business idea: Cramer pushes long UVXY calls 🤞

wynott dunn
Aug 9, 2006

What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

(Trading Places) Sell!... Sell!... Sell!

dipwood
Feb 22, 2004

rouge means red in french

Syrinxx posted:

Another day, another 52 week low for SOFI

lol

I sold what little I had left of it when they announced yet another student loan pause halfway into next year, on the backs of the courts not allowing forgiveness.

It's obvious they're going to extend the pause all the way to the next election. This company is never going to make any money.

lostleaf
Jul 12, 2009
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/ftc-sues-to-block-microsofts-acquisition-of-game-giant-activision-blizzard.html

drat I was really hoping for this deal to go thru. Not just for the ATVI stock but better competition from MS against Sony.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

lostleaf posted:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/ftc-sues-to-block-microsofts-acquisition-of-game-giant-activision-blizzard.html

drat I was really hoping for this deal to go thru. Not just for the ATVI stock but better competition from MS against Sony.

Stock is relatively unphased, huh. All priced in. Still, glad I'm out of it!

I'm bagholding IRBT though, people think the FTC is now gonna block nearly everything any "big tech" company tries to buy. I didn't see that being likely at all, but maybe I'm the dumbass.

They DO need to stop this Kroger/Albertsons merger though. Even though it's not "big tech", so many areas of the country only have a choice between those two for a middle of the road mainstream grocery. A non-near-monopoly source of food is kind of important. But they gotta spend their resources on call of duty and commodity robot vacuums.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Is EVGO dead or is it gonna somehow be saved by the infrastructure bill?

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=EVGO&p=d
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-EVGO/financials-statistics-and-ratios/

it is bleeding cash like no tomorrow. Fits in my crap-tacular screen that also identified tickers such as AMC, WE, MSTR, and RUM.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010




crude down to $71!

pseudanonymous
Aug 30, 2008

When you make the second entry and the debits and credits balance, and you blow them to hell.

pmchem posted:



crude down to $71!

Cats obviously need leaded fuel.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


if any of you are checking the price of your trash meme stocks, be sure to also check the quantity


ANN ARBOR, Mich. --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ENDRA Life Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: NDRA) (the “Company”), a pioneer of Thermo Acoustic Enhanced UltraSound ( TAEUS ®), announced today that it will be effecting a reverse stock split of its outstanding shares of common stock at a ratio of 1-for-20. The reverse stock split will reduce the number of shares of the Company’s common stock outstanding from 63,174,455 shares to approximately 3,158,723 shares, subject to adjustment for the rounding up of fractional shares.

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


20% peak to trough, some looky-loos jumped the gun this morning.

Fidelity doesn't know what to do with the little bit of NDRA I added yesterday and is pretending those shares simply exploded in value.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

I'm curious does anyone sell covered calls regularly? And additionally, not like in a daytrading context, but rather because they are hold the underlying shares for the long term, and are selling covered calls just for some extra income?

I have some positions in some stocks eg. AAPL, MSFT that I have no real plans on selling, and they just sit in my portfolio. I often think about selling covered calls on them. The premiums on OOM options wouldn't be much but it's still something I suppose.

I never do this mostly because I've never done it before and I'm scared I'll mess it up lol.

In general I have no interest in really selling the stock so if the stock price would rise I suppose I'd want to try to buy back the option rather than letting the options get exercised. If anyone in the thread does engage in this sort of covered call use is this what you do as well?

That being said I do want to sell some of these equities in 2023 for [insert various Canadian tax reasons] so it strikes me that I could sell a covered call for Feb '23 and worst case scenario I sell the stock I needed to sell anyway. Could be a good way to try it out.

Edit: Actual worst case scenario would be that the stock drops like a stone but that's more bad for me in general unrelated to the covered call though is there covered call implications here in that one is possibly hindered from panic selling a stock if they are somehow obligated to cover a call they've written? (it kind of seems like a theoretical issue in that in such a case where the underlying stock plunges, the covered call would be surely worthless and easy to buy to close?)

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 04:15 on Dec 10, 2022

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Femtosecond posted:

I'm curious does anyone sell covered calls regularly? And additionally, not like in a daytrading context, but rather because they are hold the underlying shares for the long term, and are selling covered calls just for some extra income?


I've done it a bit, but you've outlined where you can get into trouble. When the stock rose a lot, I found myself not quite so eager to sell it (and take the tax hit).

When the stock dropped a bit, having to close the short call first, or wait for expiration, was another hurdle. Sure the call gets cheaper, but often it's not *that* cheap, since vol went up as well. And you can end up in a cycle where you are chasing a loser down the drain with more and more short calls.

When the stock goes up too much, people will tell you just to "roll" the short call position, but be clear with yourself what that actually is. You're taking the loss and opening a new position farther out. It's a new trade.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Someone posted this link in the discord and it's a good read.

When do you average down?

quote:

...
At a very big picture: averaging down when you are right is very sweet, averaging down when you are wrong is a disaster.

At the first pick the question then is "when are you wrong?", but this is a silly question. If you knew you were wrong you would never have bought the position in the first place.

So the question becomes is not "are you wrong". That is not going to add anything analytically.

Instead the question is "under what circumstances are you wrong" and "how would you tell"?
...

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Femtosecond posted:

Someone posted this link in the discord and it's a good read.

When do you average down?

that whole post is a great read, thank you. I had Bronte's 13-Fs bookmarked, but had no idea he kept a blog. I gotta see what other big names post in similar manners.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
Selling coverd calls is also ordinary income, so even passive gains are taxed pretty steeply.

movax
Aug 30, 2008

Anyone else playing SiC (silicon carbide) and adjacent industries? It is a technology that has been around for ages (I designed around it about 12 years ago, and it’s been around since the 90s) but the renewed pressure on electrification (non passenger EV… talking construction equipment, newer trains, etc) + compactness have driven the interest to levels I haven’t seen in ages. (Ex: https://www.autonews.com/suppliers/borgwarner-gets-access-650m-silicon-carbide-devices)

I’ve picked up a good amount of Wolfspeed and Rohm, and then I’ve also got Aehr Test Systems ($AEHR) and Coherent ($COHR). Feels like $WOLF was overvalued but it has gotten beaten down recently. Infineon and ST are also in this area, but I’ve got a lot of exposure to those already.

I also decided to pick $NVTS for the GaN side of things (EPC is not public AFAIK) — down quite a bit on that year to date. It’s (GaN) clearly gotten mainstream (See every charger on the planet) but I also clearly failed to play it correctly wrt actually making money in the market.

E: Other Semi adjacent I played with — AMKR (packaging), and then I have a spread of ASML and Lam Research on the fabrication side of thing. Loads of TSM, but all at 2021 highs — currently in the red on that.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
Good luck to us all tomorrow!

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


NDRA with the 50% leap today that ended up being more like 30%, then a 5% hop AH that became 0.24%. No complaints about the stairs here as long as they lead upward...

Cut my RIVN for tax loss harvesting yesterday, today their minivan deal with Mercedes fell through, once again rewarding my firm's credo "Capital LOSSES for capital BOSSES."

George H.W. Cunt
Oct 6, 2010





Looking at $GOON and the new average cost after the reverse split and oh boy is there a long way to go

Shats Basoon
Jun 13, 2013

Femtosecond posted:

I'm curious does anyone sell covered calls regularly? And additionally, not like in a daytrading context, but rather because they are hold the underlying shares for the long term, and are selling covered calls just for some extra income?

I have some positions in some stocks eg. AAPL, MSFT that I have no real plans on selling, and they just sit in my portfolio. I often think about selling covered calls on them. The premiums on OOM options wouldn't be much but it's still something I suppose.

I never do this mostly because I've never done it before and I'm scared I'll mess it up lol.

In general I have no interest in really selling the stock so if the stock price would rise I suppose I'd want to try to buy back the option rather than letting the options get exercised. If anyone in the thread does engage in this sort of covered call use is this what you do as well?

That being said I do want to sell some of these equities in 2023 for [insert various Canadian tax reasons] so it strikes me that I could sell a covered call for Feb '23 and worst case scenario I sell the stock I needed to sell anyway. Could be a good way to try it out.

Edit: Actual worst case scenario would be that the stock drops like a stone but that's more bad for me in general unrelated to the covered call though is there covered call implications here in that one is possibly hindered from panic selling a stock if they are somehow obligated to cover a call they've written? (it kind of seems like a theoretical issue in that in such a case where the underlying stock plunges, the covered call would be surely worthless and easy to buy to close?)

I just started doing this and selling weeklys on AMZN as a way to generate income in a retirement account because I had to cut back on contributions for other priorities. The premium seems to be better than others and I feel like I don't get caught with my pants down (for too long) if I totally wiff on the strike price.

I would suggest selling them very far OTM for awhile until you get a little bit of understanding on how it works and then slowly working your way towards near the money if you are comfortable with it. I usually by to close the option once it has declined in value by 50% or so. If you sell a covered call and the price moves against you then I would suggest letting them get called away and either selling a put to get them back at a more favorable price or just buying the stock back during a pullback

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Dr. Jim Sadler
Jan 6, 2006

No, the fact that -you- don't wanna wear a thong is because you're still afraid of 9/11!
Where’s the MRNA gang? Too lazy to dig up my post from a few months ago where I posted my current positions, but popped 20% today on cancer vaccine news, so up over 50% overall on it now. Course if you find that post, everything else I own has been down.

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