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Enjoying watching the TSLA rout. Couldn't happen to a more deserving shithead than elon twatter
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Dec 13, 2022 20:05
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| # ? May 2, 2024 14:27 |
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8% bump for a loving cancer vaccine that reduces mortality rate by 50% seems awfully low Doesn't seem to be much of an economic moat for this beyond the legal maze and red tape of the FDA
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Dec 13, 2022 20:19
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Phase 2 trial success is promising, but is totally not "this definitely works and is safe" levels of news.
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Dec 13, 2022 20:25
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Dr. Jim Sadler posted:Where’s the MRNA gang? Too lazy to dig up my post from a few months ago where I posted my current positions, but popped 20% today on cancer vaccine news, so up over 50% overall on it now. Course if you find that post, everything else I own has been down. I'm in MRNA but I believe I'm still down significantly on my position 
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Dec 13, 2022 21:11
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MRNA is such a good company, the tech is so promising... But man the valuation is already very high. Wish I had caught it on the slump back there, gotta add it to the watch list. Also looking forward to how chuds might react to a vaccine for cancer.
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Dec 13, 2022 21:53
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There's already a vaccine for cervical and butt cancer and they were really mad about it because girls under 18 were allowed to get it in many cases because chastity or whatever
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Dec 13, 2022 22:00
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this is more of a vaccine you take if you've already had this cancer and its in remission or something, right? Not really something to just give to everyone in the world
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Dec 13, 2022 22:00
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Yeah this particular one lowered death and cancer recurrence given with Merck’s Keytruda immunotherapy as a combination and results compared to Keytruda alone for Stage 3 and 4 cases who had been treated with surgery.
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Dec 13, 2022 22:20
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I assume it is the easier to get volunteers for human testing that are already pretty far gone. Still, very promising results.
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Dec 13, 2022 22:46
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I believe the hope is it will work on earlier stages and perhaps preemptively as well. But God, it's gonna take them a long time to prove that.
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Dec 14, 2022 00:25
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Hadlock posted:8% bump for a loving cancer vaccine that reduces mortality rate by 50% seems awfully low To price something like this using fundamental analysis you generate a rainbow option on the drug itself which is basically using the fundamental theory behind options trading, i.e. a Black-Scholes model, and then you examine the possible end states, apply a PV calculation to them, and that tells you how much the "option" to pursuit clinical trials, certification, marketing, manufacturing, and bringing to actual market the drug is worth. There's so many places it can go wrong, and additionally so many costs between now and actual positive cash flows from the drug actually being sold.
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Dec 14, 2022 02:24
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I'm invested in NDRA ($GOON), USO (US OIL), NWARF (Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA), and ABML. 3 of them have had reverse splits since I bought in. USO 8:1, NWARF 100:1, and not NDRA 20:1. USO is the only one in the green. I am no good at this.
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Dec 14, 2022 04:12
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Syrinxx posted:Enjoying watching the TSLA rout. Couldn't happen to a more deserving shithead than elon twatter My TSLA puts love all the drama that's been going on. Has anyone else here been playing natty (KOLD/BOIL) at all? Unbelievable amounts of fun, and I swear with a disciplined strategy (aka stop losses and profit taking, nothing fancy), it seems to return pretty well.
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Dec 14, 2022 05:35
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Femtosecond posted:I'm curious does anyone sell covered calls regularly? And additionally, not like in a daytrading context, but rather because they are hold the underlying shares for the long term, and are selling covered calls just for some extra income? Rather than a pure income generation method, I look at covered calls as a mechanism to force myself to have a exit point and take profits. If this stock goes to $x, would I want to sell it? If yes, then a covered call is a smart move and has the additional benefit of generating premium up front.
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Dec 14, 2022 15:58
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A bunch of the Twitter FURUs got hit by the SEC for P&D: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txsd.1899118/gov.uscourts.txsd.1899118.1.0.pdf
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Dec 14, 2022 18:54
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Sand Monster posted:A bunch of the Twitter FURUs got hit by the SEC for P&D: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txsd.1899118/gov.uscourts.txsd.1899118.1.0.pdf Good deal, about time!
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Dec 14, 2022 19:06
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For y'alls amusement, I'm currently stuck in a short put position in IRBT. Decent stack of Jan 55p. I definitely did not think that amazon buying what is now a commodity robot vacuum company would be an issue for the FTC. The market is irobot vs about 50 chinese knockoff competitors - even shark is owned by a chinese "private capital" company now. I suppose samsung and LG have devices as well, which sell better in asia. Dyson has a robot vacuum. Pretty fragmented market. But every day the FTC doesn't announce a decision has become another day that the stock melts down (while ONEM goes up, apparently everyone thinks the FTC is ok with amazon having more medical data). I did try to capitulate this month, but no volume to get out, and I didn't want to just accept the market makers ask (although it looks like I should have now!) I'm pretty much just resigned to riding it out at this point - although if the FTC does wake up and nix the deal before end of year, its going to be a big big loss. But I think this thing will keep dragging out for awhile longer. The ATVI announcement took almost 10 months, this has only been around 5. The breakup fee is 100M (which doesn't have to be paid until aug '23), about 4 points on the stock. But the 3Q results were *insanely* bad, so the floor is perhaps down in the low 30s now. Figuring a possible floor at 33 (with the breakup fee), and the stock trading at 47, consensus seems to be that the chance of the deal happening now is down to about 50/50 (the acquisition price is 61). And I do still think the privacy concerns are massively overblown. There are publicly available data sets on houses that amazon can just merge into their customer data, (and I'm sure they already have). They don't need to buy roomba to get that data. Is information on when people vacuum what the FTC is concerned about? Or is it having the marketing muscle to elbow out a bunch of roomba knockoffs in a crowded marketplace? But weighed against that, the current head of the FTC did make her reputation with a paper arguing that Amazon needs to be broken up. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/ftc-s-antitrust-probe-of-amazon-picks-up-speed-under-new-boss?leadSource=uverify%20wall And Biden has directed the FTC and DOJ to basically come down on "big tech". https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...erican-economy/ So follow along, I'll post the end pain results when I close it out. Or if you think the odds are better than what the market currently thinks, get in here with me! I still think the deal is only about 25% or less to get scuttled, but I was trying to capitulate at implied odds of about 33%, just because the big downside had become a little too real (and more quickly than I thought it was going to be priced in).
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Dec 14, 2022 20:00
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How many times in the past year have the feds made an announcement, or made hints on what they're going to do on inflation? 50? I'm over this poo poo.
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Dec 14, 2022 20:33
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Baddog posted:For y'alls amusement, I'm currently stuck in a short put position in IRBT. Decent stack of Jan 55p. Feels like the FTC is trying to make up (or at least appear too) for sleeping at the wheel over the past...5, 10 years? There have been so many worse (more anti-competitive) mergers/acqs that they either did fuckall about, or rolled over on. Strong Robert Bork "monopolies are only bad if the cost goes up for the consumer" energy.
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Dec 14, 2022 21:51
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sorry about that. I recently did something similar and sold a put on a company that I also had long calls on. Hoping to collect some extra money along the way and the entire thing moved against me. the put was exercised early at one point and my whole thesis was blown away. put exercised and calls worthless. good times. that particular stock was my biggest looser this year and im sure it’ll soar next year. timing it just right is so difficult.
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Dec 15, 2022 03:47
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Mega laffo about all those Atlas Trading people. They were all so super clearly running a classic pump and dump that it was really amazing they were so brazen about it.
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Dec 15, 2022 10:53
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Wait… does this mean Wish isn’t actually going to $69?
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Dec 15, 2022 14:54
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ReidRansom posted:Mega laffo about all those Atlas Trading people. They were all so super clearly running a classic pump and dump that it was really amazing they were so brazen about it. Well I guess that answers my previous question "where is the SEC" lol
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Dec 15, 2022 18:19
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cirus posted:Well I guess that answers my previous question "where is the SEC" lol Cross-posted from cspam: https://twitter.com/davidmarinojr/status/1602881117094297600 quote:
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Dec 15, 2022 20:27
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So apparently Liquid Piston is the new thing, and stock can be purchased directly from them on their website? I've never seen an "IPO" like this. Can this stock actually be sold or is this like stock in green bay packers? edit: their site: https://invest.liquidpiston.com/
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Dec 16, 2022 15:12
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There is less than zero interest in new engine technology from any automaker, you'll lose your rear end. If they rolled this out 15 years ago it coulda been a thing but lol no it's DOA and this is a desperate grab to get something back from their sunk costs
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Dec 16, 2022 16:10
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downout posted:I've never seen an "IPO" like this. Can this stock actually be sold or is this like stock in green bay packers? It's a Reg A offering. IIRC these are limited to small offerings and the issuer has to jump through a few hoops (but nowhere near as many as a normal '33 Act registration statement). They're getting more popular but given the lack of liquidity and fewer reporting requirements, I'd stay far away unless you're an expert in that kind of business. Or to answer your question more directly, "it's legit stock, it's not like the Packers, but it's still probably a bad idea to buy it"
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Dec 16, 2022 19:40
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What happened at COSM? Reverse split followed by 7x gains
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Dec 16, 2022 23:58
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The missus went wine tasting with a bunch of Wealthy Girlfriends and they're all deciding to become shareholders of one of the wineries that they enjoyed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willamette_Valley_Vineyards The winery is listed on the NASDAQ under WVVI but the 'opportunity' that was pitched at them is buying 300 to 3,000 shares of 'preferred' stock under WVVIP I don't know what that means, what the difference is, etc., and the total actual amount of $$$ isn't enormous but I don't want to just toss money into a hole for no reason. Are there limitations on preferred stock? I'm guessing you can't just buy and sell it like a normal security since the process to invest is so strange, and they make a big deal about the 4.12% dividend being payable as cash or as Wine Credit which bumps it to a 4.74% dividend And regardless of how the financial instrument works, I'm not even sure how you spot a Good Winery from a Bad Winery They've experienced a lot of Number Go Down in the past year  And I dunno that wine is necessarily the next big thing, y'know? Seems more like golf where today is the last time it will ever be this popular
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Dec 17, 2022 23:13
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:The missus went wine tasting with a bunch of Wealthy Girlfriends and they're all deciding to become shareholders of one of the wineries that they enjoyed. Edit: I was wrong, but they are essentially a restaurant and they're losing money hand over fist https://seekingalpha.com/filing/7004613 The winery is beautiful and they do a perfectly good wine for the price point. Their pinot noir isnt great for the willamette valley, but their whites were fantastic. Fun but not a good investment. Oscar Wild fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Dec 18, 2022 |
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Dec 17, 2022 23:33
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I went through a phase where I had a subscription to wine business monthly. They had a poll asking if you would be Planting new vineyard Expanding existing vineyard Maintain current size Decrease Plan on selling The breakdown was something like, with 200+ responding; 0.5% 3% 80% 15% 1.5% With a bunch of discussion about if the wine business is even profitable. Assuming you have a newly planted vineyard that's 80th percentile profitable in the market and get $10 per bottle either selling direct, or that's your cut after the middle man sells it at $18/bottle, you're looking at $1500-3000/acre profit There are a lot of compounding "if" statements in that analysis for a positive number to appear Vineyards make a great alternative to grass as a yard though, potentially net $0 cost with some potential tax benefits
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Dec 17, 2022 23:59
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I'm pretty sure that wine is one of those "how to turn a large fortune into a small fortune" types of businesses that are reserved for only the very wealthy that have so much money they don't really know what else to do with it. Possibly only not so for situations like Chile, where it's an export business by which they're paying for very cheap labour to create a product by which they export to rich countries and receive payment in a stronger currency.
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Dec 18, 2022 01:22
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The margin on cheaper wine is pretty small so unless you’ve got economies of scale you’re not going to be making much money. Mid-high end wines are more profitable per bottle but you’re competing with thousands of smaller, premium wineries targeting the same price point so you’re going to need to do something special to get noticed.
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Dec 18, 2022 01:34
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Based on my sample size of two, rich people buy wineries to provide easy employment for their grown children that can’t hold down office jobs.
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Dec 18, 2022 01:35
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Yeah I'm definitely not looking to start up a winery. This is more like, do I let them babysit $16k for me, pay me ~$670 each year and give us lots of free wine I'd be better off just investing the $16k in some index funds and spending 4% of the balance (the SWR, or "Spend Wine Rate") on a wine club membership each year
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Dec 18, 2022 01:46
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Femtosecond posted:I'm pretty sure that wine is one of those "how to turn a large fortune into a small fortune" types of businesses that are reserved for only the very wealthy that have so much money they don't really know what else to do with it. Owning a vinyard in california I think is a way to live on more than an acre of hyper premium land for under $5 million yet retaining less than a 90 minute drive to downtown san francisco. I was really suprised how close napa is from san francisco and oakland. My numbers did not include daily/weekly labor of keeping the vinyard in running order, it's assuming you work for free ~40-90 hours a week nights and weekends. If you actually pay someone to do the backbreaking labor for you, then yeah  . Most of my math was based on ~2.5-3.3 acres of producing land on a larger plot. Your mileage may vary.The restaurant and tasting room I think always get built later as they finally realize the only way to break even is to sell
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Dec 18, 2022 02:09
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Yeah I'm definitely not looking to start up a winery. This is more like, do I let them babysit $16k for me, pay me ~$670 each year and give us lots of free wine My man if you wanna make a safe 4% then literally just buy some fuckin Tbills.
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Dec 18, 2022 04:49
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Ola posted:This news bulletin from the future is why they dropped TSLA: Spooky.
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Dec 18, 2022 07:39
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Hadlock posted:With a bunch of discussion about if the wine business is even profitable. Interesting. My mother mentioned to me that the guys she has handle her landscaping sold her on setting up the empty lot next to her house(that came with it and she doesn't want to sell since anything built on it would ruin the view of the mountains) as a vineyard because of the tax benefit. I had kind of put it off as them trying to milk her for money and despaired a bit but it sounds like maybe it isn't a horrible idea. I still don't think it's a great idea (she'd be paying them to basically do everything and then selling the wine) but as long as it isn't a total scam I feel better about it. I guess this is a bit off topic for the stock picking thread though.
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Dec 18, 2022 19:44
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Bremen posted:I guess this is a bit off topic for the stock picking thread though. Yet still more interesting than talking about NDRA's new low. TBQH enjoying the wine talk.
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Dec 18, 2022 20:29
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