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Canine Blues Arooo
Jan 7, 2008

when you think about it...i'm the first girl you ever spent the night with

Grimey Drawer
"Games on Phone" and "Games on Console/PC" are two completely different sectors and it's one of my pet peaves that this gets lumped into one label called 'gaming'. "Phone Gaming" has more in common with a slot machine at Caesars Palace then it does Baldur's Gate 3. Through the lens of investment, it should be viewed as such as well.

Cloud Gaming is an effort to provide a facsimilie of a PC/Console gaming experience to people who play games on their phones. The number of people in that Venn Diagram intersection isn't zero, but it's very close to it. There are several reasons for this, but chief among them is, 'The experience sucks - these games aren't designed for phones to begin with' and 'People playing phone games are not looking for a 'real' game, they are chasing a gambling high.'

To that end, Cloud Gaming will forever be somewhat niche. There are enough people interested to keep a service or three alive, but it will never reach the heights that something like Google Stadia's execs thought because Google Stadia's execs know *gently caress all* about that market.

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drk
Jan 16, 2005

Canine Blues Arooo posted:

Cloud Gaming is an effort to provide a facsimilie of a PC/Console gaming experience to people who play games on their phones. The number of people in that Venn Diagram intersection isn't zero, but it's very close to it. There are several reasons for this, but chief among them is, 'The experience sucks - these games aren't designed for phones to begin with' and 'People playing phone games are not looking for a 'real' game, they are chasing a gambling high.'

Was it targeted towards phone gamers? I always figured it was targeted towards the person who might want to play 1 or 2 AAA games a year, but didnt want to spend $500+ on a console or $1000+ on a gaming PC. I guess that market is just too small, or just not lucrative enough.

Canine Blues Arooo
Jan 7, 2008

when you think about it...i'm the first girl you ever spent the night with

Grimey Drawer
Stadia specifically just made up a market that doesn't exist. The "I want to play console games but can't afford $299 but CAN afford $70 per title + have my own Device to play on already" is uh...narrow.

My guess here is that they were trying to cast a very wide meet in terms of people who might find the service compelling, but they were fishing in lakes that were all real small to begin with.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

My wild guess is that pre Bitcoin two very large, growing, digital markets were "cloud" and "gaming" so they combined the two and figured technology would catch up. It never did, at least not for atmospheric 3d games you see on consoles

I forget, was it the PS2 or PS3, or maybe it was Xbox that promised streaming gaming for "unlimited upgrades" using off site computing to improve the at home experience?

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
I was one of those people who would have loved a Stadia because I didn't have a console, not because I couldn't afford one but because I didn't want to buy one since I only wanted to play like 1-2 games at most, but I refused to buy into it because it was made by Google. Google does not inspire long term confidence because they kill everything.

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Canine Blues Arooo posted:

Stadia specifically just made up a market that doesn't exist. The "I want to play console games but can't afford $299 but CAN afford $70 per title + have my own Device to play on already" is uh...narrow.

My guess here is that they were trying to cast a very wide meet in terms of people who might find the service compelling, but they were fishing in lakes that were all real small to begin with.

Well the $70 per title was the same either way, and most consoles are more than $300.

100% agree the market was too small but there are definitely people who buy $500 consoles and then don't end up buying more than 5 games, which effectively raises the price of each game by $100. High end PCs can be waaaay more.

Counting on your potential customers to be able to do that math was evidently a poor read on the typical gamer

lurksion
Mar 21, 2013

Boris Galerkin posted:

I was one of those people who would have loved a Stadia because I didn't have a console, not because I couldn't afford one but because I didn't want to buy one since I only wanted to play like 1-2 games at most, but I refused to buy into it because it was made by Google. Google does not inspire long term confidence because they kill everything.
Just pay up for Geforce Now for a month when you want to dive deep into a game, and buy your (compatible) games off of Steam/whatever storefronts they support now

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
DJT is officially trading today lol.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Boris Galerkin posted:

DJT is officially trading today lol.

And no way that the SEC might notice a pump and dump scheme or anything!

Ubiquitus
Nov 20, 2011

Busy Bee posted:

This wouldn't be a problem if Americans could just use WhatsApp like regular people.

Sure, let’s give our most private messages to a company that clearly doesn’t give two shits about consumer privacy? Apple isn’t perfect, but I’d much rather some security considerations than being the product

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

AFAIK Whatsapp is end to end encrypted, both personal and group messages. Users can "flag" a message which sends it to the mother ship, but in theory they could take a screenshot and email it, but that provides a mostly airtight evidence chain

I used to use signal but they dropped SMS support citing user confusion about what messages were and were not encrypted. The screenshot "loophole" works there too

Fate Accomplice
Nov 30, 2006




meta's the world's biggest platform to profit off of and promote white supremacy, sex trafficking, genocide, election disinformation, and causing depression in teenagers so don't use any of their stuff if you're not pro those things.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Half the things on that list are probably leveraging the end to end encryption, and they'll all move to the next platform if WhatsApp were to suddenly die; I'm not convinced my ad free choice of end to end encrypted chat somehow supports anything on that list

Ubiquitus
Nov 20, 2011

Hadlock posted:

Half the things on that list are probably leveraging the end to end encryption, and they'll all move to the next platform if WhatsApp were to suddenly die; I'm not convinced my ad free choice of end to end encrypted chat somehow supports anything on that list

I don’t really want to check the ToS, but I suspect that’s the only real way to figure out what the monetization scheme is. Maybe it is innocuous but I doubt it

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

They offer business accounts for XYZ charge but personal accounts are free AFAIK. There's probably some informational value gleaned via generating URL thumbnails that is in turn monetized indirectly for pricing ads on other services, or whatever. Number of contacts and which contacts probably aren't private information, and they can tie that back to ad revenue on their other directly monetized platforms

Canine Blues Arooo
Jan 7, 2008

when you think about it...i'm the first girl you ever spent the night with

Grimey Drawer

notwithoutmyanus posted:

And no way that the SEC might notice a pump and dump scheme or anything!

I saw it's rise and balance sheet and basically said, 'Oh, easy money, right here!'



And so did everyone else at the same time.

I've never in my life ever seen contract premiums like this before. That's the most obvious pump n dump there ever was.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
It's been a while since I've seen memestock premiums like those.

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


Canine Blues Arooo posted:

I saw it's rise and balance sheet and basically said, 'Oh, easy money, right here!'



And so did everyone else at the same time.

I've never in my life ever seen contract premiums like this before. That's the most obvious pump n dump there ever was.

could always sell a strangle to short the implied volatility. If you don't know how to manage that this is not a good place to learn.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
as a non-options trader, i'm trying to make sure i understand this. is the implication that the premium for a contract to possibly sell a share at $85 any time before september is $63.85, so you'd need to be able to buy a share at $21.67 or lower to account for the premium?

yummycheese
Mar 28, 2004

yes exactly. that screenshot is even doing the leg work and telling you the stock would need to move ~60% one way or the other for those options to be profitable.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

great news stock thread, pump and dumps are legal now!

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rmMOgPQgozIw/v0

let the penny stock recommendations flow!

Does this exist in a non DJT vacuum

drk
Jan 16, 2005

yummycheese posted:

yes exactly. that screenshot is even doing the leg work and telling you the stock would need to move ~60% one way or the other for those options to be profitable.

60% in 177d?

not a gamble id take, but someone will make money here

Baddog
May 12, 2001
I really want to sell call spreads, but can't babysit the position 24/7 in case I get assigned the short leg. and the broker wants to do something weird to me instead of just exercising the long.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Those premiums are so juicy I almost want to sell puts. The lowest it can go is zero, right :p

Girbot
Jan 13, 2009

Subvisual Haze posted:

Those premiums are so juicy I almost want to sell puts. The lowest it can go is zero, right :p

3 May 10k Puts net you a 30% annualized return on risk.

$10 would be an all time low and IV Crush would probably bail you out before reaching it.

Same thing I did with CRTX a few years back when premiums were this dumb.

I'm not biting this time, though . . . yet.

Girbot fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Mar 28, 2024

Deviant
Sep 26, 2003

i've forgotten all of your names.


What do we think NVDA is going to do after dropping a bit today?

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Woodchip posted:

Either we're going higher, or lower.

Taps thread title

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Canine Blues Arooo posted:

I saw it's rise and balance sheet and basically said, 'Oh, easy money, right here!'



And so did everyone else at the same time.

I've never in my life ever seen contract premiums like this before. That's the most obvious pump n dump there ever was.

lmfao is that a $47 premium on a $69 stock? I could probably get a 6 months option on SPX for less than that

Canine Blues Arooo
Jan 7, 2008

when you think about it...i'm the first girl you ever spent the night with

Grimey Drawer

Deviant posted:

What do we think NVDA is going to do after dropping a bit today?

I'm looking for something to suggest it's time to catch a knife here, and I don't think this is it. I think NVDA's still got at least months, maybe years riding it mega high like this.

The reckoning will come. AI is not going to *change the world* (unless you mean it's marketing, in which case, mission accomplished). Mark it on my gravestone if you must: This is some fad bullshit and it will crash and burn... Unless someone actually overcomes the critical limitations of the current crop of tech and while that might happen, I'm not that hopeful for it tbh.

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


notwithoutmyanus posted:

lmfao is that a $47 premium on a $69 stock? I could probably get a 6 months option on SPX for less than that

Sell the call and the put, you get $56 both sides you profit as long as it stays above $2.5 (you sell early when IV starts to collapse) and are basically protected to 116 before you start losing money, remember though if it does take a ride to 200 or 400-500 you are going to have assignment risk and may need to manage that. Very easy point to panic and eat the loss. The theory is it's going to meme but be dead in 6 months because Trump will loot the stock value market slamming his shares, or people finally realize the site isn't worth anything.



Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent but come on just roll for another $160 credit if that happens (will probably not be $160 if the strikes are actually challenged)



*I do not have a position here because I don't have the 15-20k buying power I'd need to earmark to do this comfortably.

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.
Any thoughts on LAC?

ARTPUP
Jun 7, 2013

Congrats to those who own shares in Fusion Pharmaceuticals (FUSN) with AstraZeneca offering $21/share in a buyout offer last week. Nice jump. Wished I owned some!

Speaking of jumps, looks like there's life in OpGen Inc. (OPGN) after all. Activist Investor David Lazar buys $3m worth of shares (@ $1/share) and becomes the CEO. Maybe now we'll see results. Still awaiting China's approval on a possible $180m contract. Who knows? Biogambles...

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


using a super wide channel on a semilog chart going back to the Carter admin, and man, the dot com bubble sure was something:



just posting because I keep seeing more bubble talk on twitter/discord. always something I guess

Man Musk
Jan 13, 2010

According to Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor, you’ll find a good price paying < 22.5 PE ratio x Price to Book ratio.

Within the Information Technology sector, this eliminates mostly everything except for a clutch of very good Japanese companies.

Going long on Subaru FUJHY and Fujifilm FUJIY on Monday 👍

(Subaru isn’t tech but rather Consumer Discretionary. I just like the stock)

For comparison, here are some other PE x Price to Book ratios as of 3/28:

AMAT 265.2
NVDA 5,262.8
QCOM 214.8
SMCI 1,902.7
TSM 173.2

~

FUJHY 7.5
FUJIY 21.2

pseudanonymous
Aug 30, 2008

When you make the second entry and the debits and credits balance, and you blow them to hell.

Man Musk posted:

According to Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor, you’ll find a good price paying < 22.5 PE ratio x Price to Book ratio.

Within the Information Technology sector, this eliminates mostly everything except for a clutch of very good Japanese companies.

Going long on Subaru FUJHY and Fujifilm FUJIY on Monday 👍

(Subaru isn’t tech but rather Consumer Discretionary. I just like the stock)

For comparison, here are some other PE x Price to Book ratios as of 3/28:

AMAT 265.2
NVDA 5,262.8
QCOM 214.8
SMCI 1,902.7
TSM 173.2

~

FUJHY 7.5
FUJIY 21.2

Someone tells you ratio analysis is sector agnostic walk away.

jawbroken
Aug 13, 2007

messmate king
Seems like a weird thing to do, to multiply a couple of ratios and calculate Price²/(Earnings * Book Value) with the unit of, uhh, years? I suppose you could interpret it as the geometric mean of the ratios (without the square root, but feel free to do it and compare to 4.74 instead), but is there some derivation/explanation in the book that makes sense…

Noam Chomsky
Apr 4, 2019

:capitalism::dehumanize:


Any thoughts on James Altucher and/or his AI 2.0 “wealth window?”

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Noam Chomsky posted:

Any thoughts on James Altucher and/or his AI 2.0 “wealth window?”

He's selling a newsletter pitching AI as a "second chance" for people who "missed out on crypto"?

eew

rio
Mar 20, 2008

I hear that based on the minimum price he says you can invest that he is likely shilling TSM. Could be good, idk it does seem to be performing well but it could also be a bubble and I’ve been trying to do investments on the safer side since I was way too aggressive and stupid when I was trading a few years ago. I am going to look more into it though since it seems to be an AI stock a lot of people are riding on.

As soon as I see a “course” like his or whatever I am skeptical though.

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hot cocoa on the couch
Dec 8, 2009

reading about DJT in the gbs trump thread is absolutely painful

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