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Pff posted:I just execute some options thing some teenager with a paper account is talking about. Then I lose some money and learn about what a straddle is while I'm up to my tits in cortisol. I've learned a lot from Professor Cortisol over the years
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Apr 16, 2024 03:19
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should probably put a link to the ODD in the OP so we can point at it for options info and jargon, although few people read it https://www.theocc.com/company-information/documents-and-archives/options-disclosure-document
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Apr 16, 2024 13:19
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Crankit posted:How did you guys learn about trading strategies and such, every so often I see people saying they will do a strangle straddle or some other thing and I'm not able to follow. Someone pointed me at TastyTrade (formerly TastyWorks) which has a nice interface where you can just say I want to open a strangle and it will kind of auto fill and let you play with it and see the expected P/L if you are happy with it you route the order. The staff also post all their trades and you can copy them if you want examples of well trades that should turn a profit on average. They also have live shows during market hours, more importantly that all gets recorded and uploaded on their site in nice videos so you can learn anytime. You can watch their videos without a portfolio with them but if you are serious about options I think you probably want to at least consider moving to them for learning (they'll let you write calls with as little as 2k a few years ago not sure if it's gone up). Do be careful just blindly pressing duplicate trade, but often you can get the logic behind the trade if you go browse whatever show that person runs they normally have discussed it that day or even opened the trade live. It's more nice to press duplicate trade look at the structure and go oh that's what it should look like before opening I need to wait for better prices!
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Apr 16, 2024 13:28
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No, Hawaii Electric! come back!
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Apr 16, 2024 17:55
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Crankit posted:How did you guys learn about trading strategies and such, every so often I see people saying they will do a strangle straddle or some other thing and I'm not able to follow.
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Apr 16, 2024 18:32
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HE taking a dump today 
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Apr 16, 2024 19:13
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This is from them asking people to conserve energy and looking at rolling blackouts? I'm not sure that's a negative for shareholders of a regulated monopoly... Is the thought that Hawaii might just take them over and wipe out the shareholders?
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Apr 16, 2024 20:38
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i hope not, i took the opportunity to average down
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Apr 16, 2024 20:49
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Deviant posted:i hope not, i took the opportunity to average down Always average down on Pacific electric companies
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Apr 17, 2024 02:40
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Hadlock posted:Always average down on Pacific electric companies What makes you say that?
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Apr 17, 2024 03:57
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Wrong assumptions
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Apr 17, 2024 04:05
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electricity demand is vertical and companies servicing the utility/commercial/industrial sectors are doing very well utilities themselves, eh. should be printing
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Apr 17, 2024 04:16
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They probably aren't going to be building AI datacenters in Hawaii
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Apr 17, 2024 04:28
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no, but hawaii is an excellent example of a place that is in the process of going from ~100% imported energy to ~100% local renewable my hot takes are not trading advice, dont buy utilities in places with fires or lava
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Apr 17, 2024 04:38
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I thought HE was more of a hold stock, and it wasn't expected to bounce back after the disaster for a while. It could go down to as low as $8.00 (or lower, of course) before then.
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Apr 17, 2024 21:39
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makes sense
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Apr 17, 2024 21:47
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Bought another 21 shares of Hawaiian Electric (HE) @$10.08 if I had more funds I'd buy more. Shares on sale, just headline panic. Basically the after action report from the Western Fire Chiefs states three factors - 1: less wetlands and more dry grasslands 2: Environment with rising heat waves 3: General disregard to the red flag warning from the National Weather Service. Lack of communication, water shortages and not enough equipment to fight the brush fires seem to be the issues raised. Hawaiian Electric is only mentioned on page 29 for planning for better evacuation routes, possibly using buried power lines instead (an infrastructure issue). No one from Hawaiian Electric was involved in the interviews for this report. There is no mention of powerlines falling due to poor maintenance (just hurricane winds) or of the power remaining on as the wildfires occurred. There is mention of first responders being blocked by falling power poles and carefully walking over fallen power lines helping people to escape (no mention if they were live). No mention either of the Maui Police shutting down roads for fear of live power lines in the area long after Hawaiian Electric told them the power was off. I think the worst case for this is a judge in state court who will politically try to smooth things out and do a "well, we're all at fault here" conclusion, lets not point fingers just everybody involved pay a little to pay damages. Certainly the after action report doesn't help Maui County who are trying to nail Hawaiian Electric to the wall and not blame themselves. There have been warnings since 2014 of high risk wildfires in the Lahaina area.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:09
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ARTPUP posted:... Regarding $MREO, I had played a few small swings the last couple years and then had a limit order around 1.2X that missed getting filled last October just as the price took off. I've been hesitant to jump in since the stock kept moving up and eventually nearly tripled. Now that there has been a slight pull back in recent weeks, do you feel like this is a good entry point? Are you still playing the B/O angle on them or what is your end game plan, if you don't mind sharing? Thanks!
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Apr 18, 2024 21:48
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interesting argument over $XPEL bear (it's a thread): https://x.com/CulperResearch/status/1715001409324695663 bull: https://lukewolgram.substack.com/p/xpel-now-at-the-biggest-inflection and also, paywall'd bull, haven't seen: https://x.com/JerryCap/status/1775293833367937065 stock came up on a screener of mine for high 5y revenue growth mid/smallcaps that were also profitable. it has solid revenue and profit growth over time, https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/XPEL/xpel/revenue while also having extremely low debt and an amusingly flat share count. kinda wonder if any car enthusiast goons use the product. anyone have a hot take on this stock?
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Apr 19, 2024 02:32
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Fireside Nut posted:Regarding $MREO, I had played a few small swings the last couple years and then had a limit order around 1.2X that missed getting filled last October just as the price took off. I've been hesitant to jump in since the stock kept moving up and eventually nearly tripled. Now that there has been a slight pull back in recent weeks, do you feel like this is a good entry point? Are you still playing the B/O angle on them or what is your end game plan, if you don't mind sharing? I have roughly 15,000 shares of MREO now. Started buying when it was below a dollar, and haven't sold a single share yet. Could have sold back when they jumped to $4/share but I do think a buy out is possible - there have been hints of maybe at year's end. Rubic Capital still holds on to over 90million shares and Denise Scots-Knight is still in charge as CEO, so it seems they are holding steady... I am planning to buy more within these months if funds come in. (looking at you OPGN) That said, there is always a big risk to these stocks and it could go back to $4+/share or go to zero...
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Apr 19, 2024 10:45
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pseudanonymous posted:Someone tells you ratio analysis is sector agnostic walk away. Sectors themselves are a bit arbitrary, imo. Fidelity counts Facebook as a communications company, etc. Anyway, I'm just simplifying. Generally, you want more current assets than long-term liabilities. Since I've been keeping track, value investing is where it @. (BG refers to the author's suggestions in my original post, and stars get extra weight)  BGD: ARLP BG* DINO* EURN GGB* KMTUY* SUZ TGNA TS* VTMX BGE: AATC AMR AYI AZZ BCC BKE CIX CMRE* CNXN CPHC CRH CRI CRWS CSL CTSH CWCO DIT* DMLP EURN FRD* GRMN HBB IPB IOSP KFY LOGI LRCX MAS OC ODC OTTR PATK PKG PTVE RL ROST TBP TS TSM TTDKY UVV* VGR
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Apr 20, 2024 03:26
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VNDA finally popped enough this week that I was able to sell some calls with my poverty dollars off that turd. Whaddup, Thetaclan.
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Apr 20, 2024 03:29
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Theoretical question. Say you put 20% of your money in a 5x leveraged s&p 500 ETF and 80% in treasuries or something that pay 4%. And imagine for this theoretical example that this 80/20 distribution gets rebalanced every day. In what circumstances does this do worse than 100% S&P500 1x ETF?
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Apr 20, 2024 15:02
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No Wave posted:Theoretical question. Say you put 20% of your money in a 5x leveraged s&p 500 ETF and 80% in treasuries or something that pay 4%. And imagine for this theoretical example that this 80/20 distribution gets rebalanced every day. In what circumstances does this do worse than 100% S&P500 1x ETF? You kind of invented a coward’s version of Taleb’s portfolio. All of your rebalances are taxable so tax drag will kill you.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:06
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:You kind of invented a coward’s version of Taleb’s portfolio. All of your rebalances are taxable so tax drag will kill you. No Wave fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Apr 20, 2024 |
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Apr 20, 2024 15:23
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No Wave posted:It's not so much to avoid crashes >20%, it's more to get the "free" interest gains from the treasuries vs 100% S&P 500. But taxes making it unfeasible makes sense, too much buying and selling. Makes me wonder about whether it can be done in an IRA/401k though (but even then just the transaction costs will add up without a large principal). read the prospectus on leveraged ETFs. they're not actually straight "#x" the base index, that's just their target. the prospectus will have details like this from UPRO's prospectus (a 3x S&P etf):  so, there are many cases where your example would underperform the straight market, typically during somewhat (or very) volatile periods.
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Apr 20, 2024 15:30
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pmchem posted:read the prospectus on leveraged ETFs. they're not actually straight "#x" the base index, that's just their target. the prospectus will have details like this from UPRO's prospectus (a 3x S&P etf): No Wave fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Apr 20, 2024 |
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Apr 20, 2024 16:37
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No Wave posted:The results in general get weird over a longer than 1 day period because there's so much volatility in the principal, which is what the rebalancing was intended to address. As I understand it these leverage ETFs only deliver what they're meant to do over timeframes of one day (which is what they mean with that "not meant to be held" disclaimer). deleted the irrelevant part no, you need to better understand how these leveraged ETFs function in reality vs. their stated headline goal. multiplication commutes. that annual drag is from a series of 1-day drags. take, for example, April 18. The S&P was -0.22% that day but UPRO was -0.78% instead of -0.66%. Or April 9. S&P was +0.14% but UPRO was only +0.35%. April 5: S&P +1.11% but UPRO only +3.11%. poo poo like that happens all the time on a single-day basis and in aggregate, it does not come out in the holder's favor. you will not meet the goal of your original hypothetical example by holding some max-leveraged ETF. although you might come out in the desired direction (edit: or even desired result!) if the given year isn't very volatile. that said, there are plenty of leveraged ETFs which already exist which do this sort of stacking to get internal cross-asset leverage (although not to the degree in your original example). Have a look at SWAN, NTSX, or RSSB for starters. pmchem fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Apr 20, 2024 |
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Apr 20, 2024 18:06
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Are the people in this thread basically doing what No Wave is asking about?
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Apr 20, 2024 21:32
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Boris Galerkin posted:Are the people in this thread basically doing what No Wave is asking about? not really. they're targeting a certain risk parity exposure by also using leveraged treasury exposure. he's talking about just using s&p leverage to get some free treasury interest on top. their rebalancing strategies are also wildly different. that hedgefundie approach was pretty lol in 2022, some quality copium in older posts about it
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Apr 20, 2024 21:42
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AZZ really ripping after-hours.
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Apr 21, 2024 14:53
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pmchem posted:that hedgefundie approach was pretty lol in 2022, some quality copium in older posts about it i never followed much of that thread cuz it got to hundreds of pages. did it blow up? a down market combined with high volatility seems bad for leveraged portfolios
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Apr 21, 2024 17:36
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drk posted:i never followed much of that thread cuz it got to hundreds of pages. did it blow up?  e: this is all over my head so I have no idea what's going on here but money number going down seems bad Boris Galerkin fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Apr 21, 2024 |
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Apr 21, 2024 18:20
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Boris Galerkin posted:
There weren't a lot of charts that looked good as of March 18, 2020.
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Apr 21, 2024 18:41
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High inflation, weakening customer demand. No way to make money in this market without an unwavering faith in the improvement of humanity’s material conditions.
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Apr 21, 2024 23:20
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I know we're all bored to tears talking about AI but is AI going to cause continued growth in markets long term? Seems like companies will get a one time boost to employee productivity/slash headcount, and that's about it? Being an early stockholder in one of the "big three" Android manufacturers will probably be fortunate, and whoever gets the patent on AGI, but I don't see how it's going to improve wages for the bottom 50% of wage earners so that they can consume more widgets or whatever
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Apr 22, 2024 00:07
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drk posted:i never followed much of that thread cuz it got to hundreds of pages. did it blow up? a basic 60/40 UPRO/TMF hedgefundie port had a 67% max drawdown in calendar year 2022. if you compared that port to plain S&P 500 or a basic 60/40 (VBIAX) starting in jan 2020, it's very much behind either with just like 2% CAGR over those years. the entire theory behind the port relied on historically observed anticorrelation between US stocks and treasuries, and that entirely broke in 2022. way back in the very first bogleheads thread on the topic, people early and repeatedly mentioned that a high inflation period was a way this portfolio would spectacularly fail. the OP had not backtested the 1970s, and wasn't even really super interested in doing so: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4370510#p4370510 despite this obvious flaw, many people plowed ahead theorycrafting small variants of it and actually investing in it. once a boglehead sort of person gets stuck on a particular investment policy, they often stick it out and ignore new information about the world or markets. sucks to be them in 2022.
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Apr 22, 2024 00:23
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Hadlock posted:I know we're all bored to tears talking about AI but is AI going to cause continued growth in markets long term? Seems like companies will get a one time boost to employee productivity/slash headcount, and that's about it? Worst case, it could be like the 1990s where AI shows up everywhere but the productivity stats. (The weakest of productivity stats) An aside: I’ve been using ChatGPT where I may typically use a search engine. It ain’t bad if you can deal with 2022 data. Man Musk fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Apr 22, 2024 |
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Apr 22, 2024 01:16
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Shopping list for this week, 4/22 🤝 Comms (1 unit): META, TGNA Cons discr (1 unit): CPHC CRWS GRMN HBB IBP PATK RL Info tech (1 unit): AATC CNXN CTSH LOGI LRCX NVDA TSM TTDKY Gen. defensive (1 unit): BG DINO GGB KMTUY TS Gen. enterprising (1 unit): CMRE FRD REPYY UVV
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Apr 22, 2024 01:52
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It’s going to be some days to weeks for US aid to filter through the economy. Might get worse before it gets better, ie the russkies might try to pull something. Incredible buying opportunities in the weeks ahead. Go long to mitigate the geopolitical risk.
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Apr 22, 2024 02:35
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