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PREVIOUS THREADS Jan 2010 - Nov 2022 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3259986 Oct 2007 - Jan 2010 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2641737 What is this thread? This thread is for (hopefully intelligent) discussions of ways to make money in the financial markets that don't fall into the Long Term Investing Thread--daytrading, swing trading, stock picking, futures, commodities, credit, whatever. How about penny stocks, forex, and crypto? If you have something interesting to say about penny stocks or forex, go for it! Crypto, however, should be discussed in its more dedicated threads, of which you have several to choose from. Okay, great. What broker should I use? You have a lot of choices. In the US, the six biggest brokers are Fidelity, Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Merrill Edge, and Interactive Brokers. What works for you depends on how often you trade, what you trade, and how what kind of resources you have available. Some goon thoughts on the brokers: Ally Invest
There are basically three types of accounts: cash, Reg T margin, and portfolio margin. Cash - You cannot borrow money to buy securities in this kind of account. If you intend to trade frequently on this kind of account you may also run afoul of freeriding rules and get your account suspended. Get a margin account. Reg T margin - With a margin account, you can buy securities using a loan from your broker for up to 50% of their purchase price. So, for example, if you fund an account with $10,000, you can immediately go out and buy up to $20,000 of SPY (or whatever). Beware, though: margin loans tend to be pretty expensive. As of November 2022, a $50,000 loan from Charles Schwab accrues interest at a 10.625% annual rate. TD Ameritrade is even worse at 11.75%. These are tough hurdles to clear, so use margin sparingly if you can help it. Another thing to be wary of is the Pattern Day Trader Rule. This is a FINRA rule basically created to protect you from yourself, and applies to those who execute four or more round trip day trades within five business days. The PDT rule says that, if you're a pattern day trader, you cannot day trade unless the equity in your account is $25,000 or over. So, bottom line here, between freeriding and the pattern day trader rule, if you intend to daytrade you should have, at an absolute minimum, $25,000 and a margin account. Portfolio margin - Portfolio margin is a relatively recent innovation, dating from 2007. If you have portfolio margin, your broker calculates your required margin based on the overall risk of your portfolio, taking into consideration offsetting positions and correlations. What this means is that your buying power can be MUCH greater under portfolio margin than Reg T margin. For example, let's say I think that tech will outperform the rest of the S&P 500, and I crudely express this view by buying $300,000 of QQQ and shorting $300,000 of SPY. Under Reg T margin, I'll need to have at least $300,000 available in my account to put the trade on (that being 50% of two $300k trades). Under portfolio margin I can put this trade on in a $100,000 account easily; SPY and QQQ are highly correlated (>0.9) and the odds of the overall long/short position blowing up quickly are very low, so your broker is more comfortable with the risk. Portfolio margin can be great if you do a lot of pair trades, option verticals, or merger arb. Minimum account size is at least $100k and not all brokers offer it. For more info, take a look at this more thorough writeup by SoFi. What are options and how do they work? That's not an easy question. You can go down the rabbit hole pretty far if you'd like to. But the basics are: the holder of the option has the right, but not the obligation, to buy a share at a certain price before a certain time (these are called call options) or sell a share at a certain price before a certain time (these are put options). And there are a LOT of different things you can do with those two basic building blocks. Investopedia has an introductory tutorial that is worth a read. Before you start trading these things, you should (in my opinion anyway) be able to know intuitively what view someone is expressing if they say they are long calls, short calls, long puts, or short puts. And if someone tells you they are long 100 shares of XYZ at $100 and wrote a $110 strike call expiring in two months for $4, you should be able to draw the payoff chart with that information. Be very careful with options. You've probably seen the screenshots of people turning $6,000 into a million bucks. People are much less likely to post the screenshots of blowing up their $80,000 accounts into big fat zeroes. Make sure you know what you're doing before diving in. Also, BurntCornMuffin posted a nice writeup that is a quick intro to options: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=4018317&perpage=40&pagenumber=42#post533541438 How do I know what to trade, when? There are hundreds of different strategies out there and what works today might not necessarily work tomorrow. You'll have to do your own research on this one. But if we speak very broadly, most ideas fall into one of these two categories: Technical Analysis - Human beings generally think and act alike, and when faced with certain situations tend to act similarly. Therefore, by examining the history of how a particular stock has traded in the past, we can predict how it will trade in the future. If you see a chart with 400 lines on it and references to various volume and strength indicators, it was likely made by a practitioner of technical analysis. It's a matter of dispute as to whether this works to provide positive risk-adjusted returns. In a market where any form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis applies, it shouldn't. Fundamental Analysis - The markets are fickle, routinely pricing near-worthless companies as being worth billions or companies throwing off millions in cash flow as if they'll go bankrupt tomorrow. Therefore, by examining the underlying businesses and financial statements of public companies, we can find stocks that are under- or over-valued and buy or sell them accordingly. If you see people talking about price/earnings ratios, EV/EBITDA, book values, and the like, they're making an argument on the fundamentals. In the strongest version of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, fundamental analysis doesn't really work either. It kind of sounds like you don't think I should be actively trading? Well, in comparison with just throwing all of your money in index funds, the odds are against you; it is difficult to consistently beat the markets as a whole, and it is extremely difficult to consistently beat the markets on a risk-adjusted basis. In terms of stress, learning new jargon, and time spent doing research, the average person is better off passively investing. But if you want to be a stock-picker or market-timer this is the thread for you. Is there a goon discord for this kind of thing? Yes. Feel free to stop by the unoffical BFC Discord, though note that it has not been endorsed by the forums, the mods, or even, necessarily, its users. Do you have a persistent source of tradeable alpha you can share? Definitely! One trade I keep putting on that's never missed is (POST TRUNCATED DUE TO LENGTH LIMIT) Agronox fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Jul 30, 2023 |
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Nov 25, 2022 20:43
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TRADING THREAD HALL OF FAME (also SHAME) Let's try something different with this thread. If there are any particularly great trades that get posted--or horrifically bad ones--I'll keep track of them here. Consider it the thread's version of bragging rights. To be included, please post a screenshot of you putting the trade on around the time you put it on, and also when you close it, in two separate unedited posts. (Otherwise the temptation is to only post winners long after the fact. We want to see how things develop in real time!)
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Nov 25, 2022 20:43
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(Reserved - Useful Online Resources and Book Recommendations)
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Nov 25, 2022 20:43
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Thread mascot:
Agronox fucked around with this message at 01:24 on Sep 1, 2023 |
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Nov 25, 2022 20:43
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Pastrami posted:There are those that realized the music had stopped in February/March 2021 and those who are quiet and bagholding to this day. There's actually still some money to be made in this garbage as the last bit of air flows out of the bubble. I have a SPAC trade that will resolve in about three weeks; will post the numbers once it's done. Nothing earth-shattering, more bunting for a base hit than swinging for the fences, but it should still be premium returns for the risk involved.
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Nov 27, 2022 18:58
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cirus posted:How about posting some wins? Probably my nicest trade over the past year was a steel resources stock, Arch Resources (ARCH). Bought last October around $100 per share, sold at $150 a few weeks ago, and collected ~$15 in dividends along the way. Also had some decent luck with an oil refiner, Delek (DK), bought at $24 in April and sold at $30 in August. Not much else has been going great, though objectively I'm doing pretty well. In the previous thread I joked in June about hitting the big button in IBKR labeled "CLOSE ALL POSITIONS" but it absolutely would've been the right move to make.
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Nov 28, 2022 02:42
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MetaJew posted:SMH This is far from a "Hall of Fame" trade, more like a "wow you beat comparable corporate bonds by 200 basis points, who cares," but fine... So if you zoom out a little bit, a post-separation, pre-merger SPAC share is basically a) a zero coupon bond, plus b) an overpriced option to buy shares in some lovely company. Let's ignore b), I don't want to own garbage de-SPACs. If you think of a SPAC share as that zero coupon bond, it matures at the earlier of the merger vote/redemption or the SPAC's liquidation. There are actually a LOT of SPACs approaching their liquidation dates. One of them I've been following for a while is Periphas Capital, PCPC. PCPC's liquidation date is December 14th. On October 21st, I started buying at 24.85. I could not be sure of what PCPC's eventual liquidation value would be. I knew it would be at least 25.00; going off of the SEC filings and current money market rates, I'd estimated that it'd be around 25.15 by December. PCPC announced a vote to amend their charter to extend their deadline for another nine months. Whatever, fine, I can redeem as part of that vote. As part of their proxy they stated their liquidation value would actually only be $25.10--it would've been higher but they stopped buying Treasurys to avoid the weird 1940 Act lawsuit issues from last year. I've been accumulating since and intend to redeem the shares at that 25.10 figure. This is money that for me would otherwise be in Treasurys or CDs. Depending on the exact date the money hits my account--IBKR doesn't promise anything but in the past it's been within three days--the IRR on this trade should be around 6.5% after fees and commissions. Again, that's nothing crazy. But it's two month liquid cash at a 6.5% rate. I'm not sure what the best comparison would be, maybe something like an A-rated corporate? I've never heard of a SPAC trust failing (and if anyone has seen one, please let me know) so this trade is very, very safe, and just requires some annoying legwork. I'll give exact return figures once it's done.
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Nov 28, 2022 03:36
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Hadlock posted:If I thought a potential rail strike might happen, or the threat of a rail strike might happen would impact stock prices, where would I be looking to buy puts Probably the industry most dependent on rail is thermal coal. Any other method of shipment outside of barge or ship is cost prohibitive. I'd imagine the IV on BTU puts (for example) would already reflect the strike danger, though.
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Nov 29, 2022 04:49
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Agronox posted:I'll give exact return figures once it's done. Punched out of the PCPC liquidation trade I mentioned earlier at $10.08 today. (I estimate its final per share value at $10.099 in two weeks, so whatever.) IRR ended up being 8.4% annualized. Nice trade, albeit a boring one. If the new buyback tax doesn't apply to SPAC dissolutions (apparently the IRS is still figuring it out) I'll probably do more of these next year.
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Dec 2, 2022 23:06
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downout posted:I've never seen an "IPO" like this. Can this stock actually be sold or is this like stock in green bay packers? It's a Reg A offering. IIRC these are limited to small offerings and the issuer has to jump through a few hoops (but nowhere near as many as a normal '33 Act registration statement). They're getting more popular but given the lack of liquidity and fewer reporting requirements, I'd stay far away unless you're an expert in that kind of business. Or to answer your question more directly, "it's legit stock, it's not like the Packers, but it's still probably a bad idea to buy it"
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Dec 16, 2022 19:40
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:not to take us back to the dark days of meme stocks, but i'm idly wondering if there's still room for a amc/ape arbitrage. even after today's pop, there's still quite the spread, and i don't see how the ape shares are materially different from the common stock besides being more obviously bullshit No borrow available and the options have largely priced in the expected move. 
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Dec 23, 2022 21:16
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Toalpaz posted:Real talk! I know, I know that this sounds pedantic, but! This is literally the kind of thing that the Securities Act of 1933 is meant to help you with. You should read the prospectus on the SEC's website. Here it is: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/813828/000119312521094660/d54206d424b5.htm I know this might seem intimidating but it is absolutely the sort of thing you need to familiarize yourself with if you want to get involved with some of the more unusual or exotic public securities.
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Dec 26, 2022 06:09
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Let's talk about 2022! BENCHMARKS It was a pretty brutal year out there.
The speculative account is where I do stock picking and swing trades. From a risk-adjusted perspective I did well, at least compared to the rest of the market this year:
 You can see how I really cut back on my risk exposure around Labor Day. WHAT WORKED
I'm probably going to play it safe in 2023. I am vaguely bearish on the macro but if the US sees a recession this year, it will probably be mild. As usual I wish I had better insight into what's going on in China, because by sheer size they're increasingly in the driver's seat. As I see it stocks are fairly valued to somewhat overvalued; expected volatility seems neither too high nor too low; I'd expect the Fed to continue raising short term rates so long as nothing breaks in the meantime. I do think that long-term bonds look overpriced here. Shorting TLT (for example) at the beginning of 2022 would've been a fantastic trade, and I suspect it will still do well in 2023. The industrialized world has likely broken out of its liquidity trap dating from 2008 and long-term rates will likely start heading back to their long-term averages. So, mark this one down to laugh at me later if it's wrong: short TLT here at $99.56 and we'll see how it did at the end of 2023. Good luck to everyone this coming year!
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Dec 31, 2022 18:27
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esquilax posted:Looking to sell a significant amount of stock at some point, around 0.5% of average daily volume for that company. It's pretty liquid but based on the depth that's way too much for a market order. How exactly do I go about this while minimizing the cost of liquidation? A single limit order at current ask price? Spread it out throughout the day? Or over multiple weeks? Or is 0.5% ADV too small to get worked up about? It's kind of hard to say without knowing your broker or the ticker. If you have IBKR they actually have some pre-set algorithms you can use that split a large order over time. Otherwise... well it kind of depends on what the bid/ask spreads look like. I would think transacting 0.5% of the ADV of something wouldn't move it too much but without seeing it, dunno. Do keep in mind you can generally see the numerical size of the bids and asks; so if there's a big bid out there for 20,000 shares at a price you're fine with, just pay attention and hit it. Otherwise, as Baddog says, several limit orders spread out seems reasonable.
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Jan 4, 2023 02:48
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Arzakon posted:I'm guessing that this is increasing the amount of available shares they have to give employees RSUs which is a major part of techbro compensation at FAANG type companies. It probably isn't all being handed out now or even as part of this year's compensation cycle. Yep. The actual filing says that they expect it to last for 2-3 years (depending on share price, employee count, etc).
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Jan 5, 2023 18:22
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Put on a 2s10s yield curve steepener trade via futures last Friday. It's the first time I've used Treasury futures. Wish me luck.
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Jan 18, 2023 01:02
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back in last June, Agronox posted:Rummaging through the dumpster and nibbling on some SOHO preferreds Happy result on this one. Southerly is a small hotel REIT in the Southeast; their capital structure was pretty much blown up as a result of covid and they had their dividends suspended since March 2020. Until today! Southerly Hotels 8-K posted:On January 24, 2023, Sotherly Hotels Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”) and the sole general partner of Sotherly Hotels LP, a Delaware limited partnership, issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing the reinstatement of quarterly dividends on the Company's preferred stock. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein.
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Jan 24, 2023 14:53
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Hey hey can we keep this at least reasonably close to actually buying and selling securities, and maybe have a separate general business news thread if that's what people are interested in?
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Feb 1, 2023 03:46
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Man this is one face-ripping rally. Pretty impressive. I keep a watchlist of lovely deSPACs (just for fun) and many of them are up over 10% today.
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Feb 2, 2023 20:06
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Toalpaz posted:
Well don't you... ask those questions... before you buy it...? Anyway, we already know BBBY skipped some bond payments; generally a company has a 30-day grace period to cure their defaults before the poo poo hits the fan. So the situation you're in right now is hoping that the capital raising they're doing is enough to resume payments and stabilize the business so that they can keep paying interest (and rolling other debt) as necessary. What you get out of the bankruptcy, if there is one, depends on a lot of things, including where the bond you bought sits in the capital stack. Is it secured or unsecured? Is it senior or subordinated? Depending on the answers to those questions, and the quality of the underlying business, recovery can range from 100% to zero.
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Feb 8, 2023 16:46
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:I picked up 100 shares of BBBY with the intent of selling calls to weirdos for the next few weeks. You know, BBBY is hard to borrow; you might want to consider writing naked puts instead of buying shares and writing covered calls against them. Same position, basically, but by selling puts you'll capture some of those hard-to-borrow fees. It's definitely worth taking a look at the math on it at least.
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Feb 15, 2023 22:42
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There's a pretty interesting situation developing with Manchester United (traded in the US with the ticker MANU). The owners are likely to sell it and have started a bidding process, with initial bids due later today. https://twitter.com/barronsonline/status/1626521027525189632 If a 5b GBP bid is accepted--this is rumored to be the minimum--it'd put the ADRs around $28 by my back of the envelope math. What gets me more interested though is the prospect of a bidding war, as both the Saudis and Qataris are said to be bidding, in addition to a potential British buyer and as-yet-undisclosed American (who might be Elon Musk, but I doubt it). Anyway, the main risks seem to be that the Glazer family decides not to sell after all (which I find unlikely given they started this process, hired bankers, and hasn't been too quiet about soliciting interest), bids are inadequate (possible), or public outcry scuttles a deal that involves, say, the Saudis. Another note of caution is that the shares have already doubled in the last three months. But on the balance of the risks it seems worth taking a flyer on, so I bought some after-hours last night at $26.70. Might add to the position depending on news flow.
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Feb 17, 2023 13:33
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FistEnergy posted:Based on the information you provided, it sounds to me like MANU has more downside than upside at the current price unless there's a meme or bidding war squeeze. But I wish you luck. Thanks. You're definitely right there... like with most merger/buyout plays the downside exceeds the upside, so how exactly you figure those probabilities of a positive result versus a poor one are crucial. And it's entirely possible I misjudged it. The news flow tonight has been pretty dead, which isn't a great sign. There are two confirmed bids (one from Qatar, one from the UK), but their sizes are as yet unknown. Nothing I can do until Tuesday, so please send some hopium and copium.
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Feb 18, 2023 02:10
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pmchem posted:anyone care to post opinions on holding junk bond funds (e.g. HYG, JNK, FALN, ANGL) the next 6-12 months? I dunno. Well, here are the fun facts about junk bond fund HYG:  And a government and investment grade fund with similar duration, GVI:  Seems reasonable I guess. You wouldn't want either if inflation picks up again, although it'd be worth poking around the junk fund to see what it actually holds (if it's mostly energy it might be better than it looks). Curious what you're going for though!
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Mar 1, 2023 01:49
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Yeah! Speaking of trades, did anyone do any bottom fishing this morning? Customers Bancorp (CUBI) is a mid-size East Coast regional bank that got caught up in the carnage earlier today. They have a 5.375% subordinated bond that trades on the NYSE (CUBB). This morning it was basically trading as if the company will be closed by the FDIC any time now; where I bought it, the straight yield was 13.1%.  The balance sheet seems pretty decent and the deposit base shouldn't be too flighty (43% of them are in accounts under the FDIC limit, as opposed to the 2.7% of SIVB, for example). The CEO bought $500k of the common this morning too. CUBB closed at 15.75 so it's been a nice trade so far. Though I'll probably get rid of it before too long because it's stressful. Also, a friend of mine took WAL from $10 to $25, but then got stopped out at the lunchtime slide to $20. Still, a nice double there for something he held for only a few hours...
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Mar 13, 2023 21:42
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Thanks for the kind words. Regarding Citigroup, just to be clear I don't think it's necessarily a bad stock or anything, just that looking at book value might not be a great way to value it, since one of the most common ways of actually realizing that book value (being acquired) is totally impossible.
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Mar 18, 2023 14:25
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If it's some bullshit GOP thing that lasts for a week, it wouldn't surprise me if the market largely looks through it. If it's a full-blown constitutional crisis and US Treasurys default for a month or more, who knows. It's the finance equivalent of trying to divide by zero. You might be happy to buy negative yielding Japanese government bonds.
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Apr 10, 2023 13:34
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Give NDRA credit, they nearly pulled off the pivot from sous videing rats to detecting fatty liver disease. If only somebody over there knew how to apply for FDA approval... vvv that quoted Space Fish post below was from May 16, 2021. On a split adjusted basis NDRA closed at $41/sh during the previous trading session. Today it closed at $2.05, for a nice and even 95% drawdown 
Agronox fucked around with this message at 05:16 on Apr 13, 2023 |
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Apr 13, 2023 01:21
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:$1,000,000 for *that*? Jesus christ these loving people. They're a lot more impressive in person. If you happen to go to Seattle at all, check out the Chihuly Gardens. Well worth it.
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Apr 22, 2023 21:44
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ranbo das posted:Hertz had a ton of used cars and went bankrupt right as the pandemic started, which caused the price of used cars to double/triple. Yep. Sad thing is it now has a lot of people convinced that common shareholders can do really well in a bankruptcy. Which can happen (even leaving HTZ aside, buying shares of the bankrupt REIT GGP was one of Bill Ackman's famous trades in the GFC) but it's very very rare.
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Apr 25, 2023 18:16
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Leperflesh posted:I may be talking out of my rear end here but I think even if you're buying senior notes (e.g., they get paid out first in a bankruptcy), a company could subsequently issue even-more-senior debt just by saying so and your only recourse is to sell what you've got if you don't agree with that. Alas, you are talking out of your rear end. It all depends on the contract but if you're a lender, as you'd expect, you don't want to be jumped in priority. So part of the indenture is going to covenant that the borrower shall not issue more than X amount of further debt, further debt must be offered no higher in priority than this note, whatever. There are often financial ratios involved. It can get pretty complicated but generally speaking if you're senior unsecured you're going to do your damnedest to protect your interests. When you get into the more subordinated debt things can get more silly. There's some publicly traded debt out there where the borrower can turn off interest payments for five years. Fun!
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Apr 28, 2023 23:50
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Love Stole the Day posted:How do you all decide the % of your portfolio to commit to each of your hypotheses? Because it feels like no matter whatever risk model or formula we come up with, at the end of the day the numbers we plug into those formulas are just gut feelings. Well I think the proper answer here says you take a look at the Kelly Criterion but uh, yeah, I ain't got time for that. It's probably easier to identify a stupid allocation than a great one unless you have the benefit of hindsight.
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May 17, 2023 03:05
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Anyone doing anything of note now that debt ceiling shenanigans are starting to come into full focus? I put on some index shorts but haven't actually sold any of my longs. VIX at 18 feels low here.
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May 23, 2023 21:35
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Garfu posted:Right after their lovely earnings and right before that announcement is when I bought my LEAPs that I just sold for half a mil Congrats! 
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May 26, 2023 00:51
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Hadlock posted:CLBR I think there's still a few hundred out there, yeah. But the rate at which they're hitting liquidation deadlines exceeds that at which they're IPOing.
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May 31, 2023 22:06
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Agronox posted:Anyone doing anything of note now that debt ceiling shenanigans are starting to come into full focus? I put on some index shorts but haven't actually sold any of my longs. Update on this: closed the shorts days ago when they were profitable, but since then added some puts which I sold at a decent loss today. So, netting everything, minor loss, or, cheap insurance that didn't pay out. I'm surprised this went down as smoothly as it did given the composition of the House. Oh well, moving on...
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Jun 1, 2023 22:01
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FistEnergy posted:Target is a much better option for clothing. It also feels more upscale and less depressing than Walmart. Well said, I feel the same way, almost exactly. Walmart makes me despair. Actually have TGT on one of my watchlists but I don't want to own any retail unless it's cheap (and I'd view TGT as more like "reasonable" right now).
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Jun 4, 2023 17:30
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does anyone in this thread trade stocks anymore 
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Jun 6, 2023 02:36
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Buying AAPL in about as much size as I could afford in ~2013 was the second best trade I made in my life. I still own a nice chunk of it.pmchem posted:I’m mobile posting so can’t search but I am 100% certain I had $TTCF in a shitco list in the prior stocks thread: It's a deSPAC, so probably.
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Jul 1, 2023 03:27
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ARTPUP posted:Wish I had bought Sigilon Therapeutics (SGTX) instead - being bought by Eli Lilly - a 460% gain since last week! Hope somebody bought some! That one's really interesting. the merger press pelease posted:Under the terms of the definitive agreement, Lilly will commence a tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Sigilon for a purchase price of $14.92 per share in cash (an aggregate of approximately $34.6 million) payable at closing, plus one non-tradeable contingent value right ("CVR") per share that entitles the holder to receive up to an additional $111.64 per share in cash, for a total potential consideration of up to $126.56 per share in cash without interest (an aggregate of up to approximately $309.6 million excluding shares held by Lilly). I've never seen such a large CVR in comparison to the definite merger consideration. I also have absolutely zero pharma knowledge, so I've got nothing to do there other than watch what happens with curiosity...
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Jul 6, 2023 14:31
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