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https://twitter.com/ShayneOnChayne/status/1634854824192909312?s=20 bank runs, typically not something you see absent a recession
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Mar 12, 2023 16:46
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/ShayneOnChayne/status/1634854824192909312?s=20 on the other hand they banked for such a niche sector, and invested in assets that would do poorly when they're niche sector does poorly. it certainly strongly points to a recession, perhaps a severe recession in the world of vc backed tech startups, but i think it's a little early to be drawing conclusions about the wider economy
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Mar 12, 2023 21:19
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I honestly wonder if a single person who isn't on twitter even knows about the SVB situation.
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Mar 13, 2023 01:11
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Are we getting another rate increase? It seems divided after pricing in a 50 just last week.
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Mar 13, 2023 05:32
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unless we see the threat of contagion develop in the next week, i have to figure we're at least going to see another 25bps
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Mar 13, 2023 06:32
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LanceHunter posted:I honestly wonder if a single person who isn't on twitter even knows about the SVB situation. My 94-yr-old grandmother knew about it, apparently from Fox News.
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Mar 13, 2023 07:06
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err posted:Are we getting another rate increase? It seems divided after pricing in a 50 just last week. fed funds futures are currently pricing no march rate hike from the fed, but things are changing very rapidly by the hour
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Mar 13, 2023 13:53
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LanceHunter posted:I honestly wonder if a single person who isn't on twitter even knows about the SVB situation. https://i.imgur.com/RFzS1q6.gifv
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Mar 13, 2023 14:01
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somehow we will have both a recession and housing prices will go up another 10% this year
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Mar 13, 2023 14:28
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Devonaut posted:somehow we will have both a recession and housing prices will go up another 10% this year Housing prices historically aren't heavily impacted by recessions from what I can tell. The great recession/financial crisis of course nuked them, but housing was a central part of that mess. So in a "normal" recession you should only see a slight slow down or something like that. I'm not saying a recession won't impact them but don't take it for granted that housing prices get demolished like 08/09.
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Mar 13, 2023 14:37
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Housing markets are hyper local so while you can talk about trends in the national sense, you can’t make any personal decisions based on those trends. Fun to speculate about, but worthless to act on.
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Mar 13, 2023 18:55
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yeah like in the glorious housing crisis where home values imploded my market experienced... 0%-1% growth.
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Mar 13, 2023 19:45
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I don’t know if anyone here watched The G Word special that Adam Conover for Netflix, but he helped make it apparent that banks collapse all the time, so much so that the FDC prepares for it on a regular basis. I think banks make bad decisions all the time, so this doesn’t indicate a recession to me. However, the next post should probably be “will the USA have a depression in 2025” because….
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Mar 14, 2023 01:35
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MEIN RAVEN posted:I don’t know if anyone here watched The G Word special that Adam Conover for Netflix, but he helped make it apparent that banks collapse all the time, so much so that the FDC prepares for it on a regular basis. I think banks make bad decisions all the time, so this doesn’t indicate a recession to me. However, the next post should probably be “will the USA have a depression in 2025” because…. Yeah and while big, it sounds like this is a textbook run causing it after years of poorly diversifying the loan book. No reason to panic unless everybody everywhere panics. So... 50/50 recession.
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Mar 14, 2023 01:52
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i'm not particularly concerned about svb and related fallout, but it is notably larger than the typical failed bank and collapsed in an unusually quick and public fashion. looking at the last bank to go into fdic receivership, almena state bank back in october 2020, had $70 million in deposits at the time. signature bank had $88 billion in deposits and svb had $175 billion in deposits. so we're talking multiple orders of magnitude higher than your typical bank failure, with svb as the second largest after wamu. roku's ~$400 million account at svb is almost six times the entire total of the last bank to go under. even if it isn't panic worthy it's certainly news worthy if anything it's the first tangible sign that interest rate hikes are doing something after almost every metric has remained sticky over the last few months
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Mar 14, 2023 02:04
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do you guys think BFC should have a new megathread just for general "Global economics and related current events" discussion? right now that sort of discussion is scattered across like 4 different threads, including this one. which has been okay, but having a thread with a focus on that topic may allow for some better discussions and also lighten the non-securities derails or offtopic chat in, say, the stocks thread or BWM thread. would anyone want to make an OP for a new thread like that? (I can if nobody volunteers) I know agronox of stocks thread backs this idea
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Mar 14, 2023 22:39
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pmchem posted:do you guys think BFC should have a new megathread just for general "Global economics and related current events" discussion? I think a megathread would be a bad idea, both because it'll become a target for the doomsday econ crowd and because the discussion being split up between different threads on BFC is actually a positive. The discussion isn't split so much as it is focused, and different threads are better able to focus on different aspects of the situation.
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Mar 14, 2023 22:57
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i'm not opposed, but there's probably a good chance it ends up becoming indistinguishable from either a thread in cspam or dnd. would probably add more to the mods plate to keep it on a more bfc track
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Mar 14, 2023 23:38
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i think it would be nice to have a perspective from BFC on macro issues, megathreads are kinda the new normal for facilitating discussion in late era SA
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Mar 14, 2023 23:52
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As an avid reader of the CSPAM Doomsday Econ thread: yeah I’ll take the BFC flavored version. I don’t think that they’d be THAT different in topical content, either. I’m not sure that there’d be some major flame war or whatever; it’s not like the CSPAM thread is one homogenous boogeyman which is calling for the dissolution of money (and v.v. BFC is not purestrain neoliberal solve-it-with-means-tested-horseshit).
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Mar 14, 2023 23:52
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Macroeconomics is fake
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Mar 15, 2023 00:21
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But only because the bond market yield curve is inverted
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Mar 15, 2023 00:35
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Yes to current events megathread, there's a lot of stuff that doesnt really fit into current threads.
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Mar 15, 2023 00:48
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I’d take more BFC content. It’s a pretty chill crowd here and I learn a lot. So that’s cool.
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Mar 15, 2023 01:03
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pmchem posted:do you guys think BFC should have a new megathread just for general "Global economics and related current events" discussion?
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Mar 15, 2023 01:50
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i would prefer a similar thread here that is a little less doomsy and where the response isn't just, "do nothing. who cares"
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Mar 15, 2023 19:22
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Strong Sauce posted:i would prefer a similar thread here that is a little less doomsy and where the response isn't just, "do nothing. who cares" it'd be just as doomsy, but with more charts and graphs LanceHunter posted:I think a megathread would be a bad idea, both because it'll become a target for the doomsday econ crowd and because the discussion being split up between different threads on BFC is actually a positive. The discussion isn't split so much as it is focused, and different threads are better able to focus on different aspects of the situation. this is what I think too also I think it'd be a business & finance thread without the careers part today is the day I actually consciously noticed that BFC doesn't have a generic chat thread, though, and that used to be the norm but nowadays it seems like most subforums have one and maybe that's all BFC would need to be able to generically talk about the economy without having it be the forever-focus? If we do wind up with a general economy thread, I'd like to propose it be a no-tweet zone. I do not want a news thread where people "post news" via tweets. That's part of what leads to doomscrolling behavior, because twitter is heavily biased towards rage and despair as clickbait.
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Mar 15, 2023 19:35
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Leperflesh posted:it'd be just as doomsy, but with more charts and graphs I think our generic chat mostly ends up in the toucan-zone of the BWM thread. My thought is that a general biz-and-finance thread will cannibalize the other ones, given we only peak at around 50-75 ppl during work hours anyway.
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Mar 15, 2023 19:40
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alright folks, thanks for the comments. based on the overall vibe, I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself. but if someone else starts one and tries to make it work, well, it's a marketplace of ideas and I'm not gonna stop 'em.
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Mar 15, 2023 19:50
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Strong Sauce posted:i would prefer a similar thread here that is a little less doomsy and where the response isn't just, "do nothing. who cares" yeah i mean this forum i think has usually been - yes there is a lot of totally hosed up economic poo poo but you probably gotta live through it so here's how you can maybe make that work but general econ chat i don't think is super useful. unless you want to turn this in to RECESSIONWATCH 2K23
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Mar 15, 2023 19:57
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pmchem posted:alright folks, thanks for the comments. based on the overall vibe, I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself. but if someone else starts one and tries to make it work, well, it's a marketplace of ideas and I'm not gonna stop 'em. I did the needful created the thread we've been dancing around since mid-2022  https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4027219
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Mar 17, 2023 04:55
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lol i enjoyed this post KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:yeah i mean this forum i think has usually been - yes there is a lot of totally hosed up economic poo poo but you probably gotta live through it so here's how you can maybe make that work my popcorn is ready, i'm here 2 WATCH 4 RECESSION
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May 20, 2023 17:15
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So, we've now got third estimate for the US GDP for Q1 of FY23, and real GDP grew by 2%. The Atlanta Fed's latest estimate for Q2 is about 2.3% growth (and, critically, at this point even their lowest forecasts see growth rather than decline). Unless there's a steep drop starting right now, it's looking like no recession for 2023.
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Jul 10, 2023 23:03
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When is the 2024 recession poll going live
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Jul 11, 2023 02:30
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Despite the best efforts of everyone involved, there was no recession in 2023.
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Jan 8, 2024 17:07
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I'll throw in my actual take - in large part I think recessions are psychologically driven and the fact that everyone is convinced that everyone else believes that there will be a recession drives behavior. So in that sense yeah, I think a recession is likely despite many of the underlying numbers being pretty solid. I was wrong. I am predicting no US recession in 2024 so that means there will be one.
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Jan 8, 2024 17:44
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Hadlock posted:When is the 2024 recession poll going live
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Jan 8, 2024 17:50
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Fixed!
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Jan 8, 2024 18:00
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Serious_Cyclone posted:Despite the best efforts of everyone involved, there was no recession in 2023. there's still time, these things are post-dated by many months! (probably no 2023 recession though, labor market metrics were too strong)
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Jan 9, 2024 04:03
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pmchem posted:there's still time, these things are post-dated by many months! There would have had to be two consecutive quarters of contraction, though, and the numbers for Q3 are pretty much locked in. Going ahead and calling no recession in 2024, though I think tech will continue to take a beating and suffer an industry-specific downturn that will have all of us computer touchers feeling like there is one.
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Jan 9, 2024 04:40
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