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I'm leaning no but I do think it's possible if the Fed decides to go full psycho mode and keep hiking too fast even with inflation cooling. I also think Tech jobs are a bit of an outlier, most of them over hired during the pandemic, many investing into projects that won't see the level of return expected. In some cases they were hiring in the dumbest fashions, like hiring people without knowing where or what they will work on. Basically just hiring them hoping some team would need them because hiring on demand was getting hard. Most of them are still well above their headcounts from before the current explosion started, but they just got too carried away during the biggest hiring frenzy in tech history. I don't think we're quite done with tech layoffs yet, but I think the biggest bombs have probably dropped. Once again with the caveat that the Fed going psycho mode and announcing they are going to keep going big on rate hikes instead of starting to ease back would trash all of this.
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Feb 1, 2023 05:20
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Devonaut posted:somehow we will have both a recession and housing prices will go up another 10% this year Housing prices historically aren't heavily impacted by recessions from what I can tell. The great recession/financial crisis of course nuked them, but housing was a central part of that mess. So in a "normal" recession you should only see a slight slow down or something like that. I'm not saying a recession won't impact them but don't take it for granted that housing prices get demolished like 08/09.
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Mar 13, 2023 14:37
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Ham Equity posted:I think I was just seeing that delinquency rates on car loans in the U.S. are higher than they've been since 2017 and rising. Maybe the car bubble is finally going to burst, like I've been saying for the last decade or so? For what it's worth, the delinquency rate on sub prime auto loans appears to be the statistic people are reporting on, while burying that detail in the article. The majority of auto loans are made to prime borrowers. A quick check finds this statistic https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_auto_loans_delinquent_by_90_days which seems to indicate that overall delinquencies are lower than pre-pandemic. Sub-prime borrowers are probably in loan hell right now though, because rates on those are apparently like credit card rates.
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Jan 11, 2024 02:14
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