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https://i.imgur.com/4e84MI3.mp4
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Jan 31, 2023 18:55
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 12:04 |
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Dik Hz posted:I look forward to the end of the year so I can reflect back on how completely wrong I was. I was right last year, there was no recession in 2022. But for some reason I still lost a lot of money, damnit. Looking forward to the same thing happening this year!
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Jan 31, 2023 19:56
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Everyone leaning on this indicator seems strange to me. We know that it is 99% that in 10 years rates will be lower than they are now, that's why it is priced that way. Not a guarantee that a recession is right around the corner though. But are we dumb for thinking that *this time* the fed will manage the situation correctly? Or will they again not cut rates until it is too late, well after the bread lines are around the block.
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Jan 31, 2023 22:21
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SKULL.GIF posted:Sustained levels of low unemployment historically precedes recessions: This is another one of those "there is always a calm before the storm" prognostications. How calm is calm, how long can calm go on before we're "due", etc etc etc. Get out the farmer's almanac!
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Feb 3, 2023 20:17
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Sundae posted:I mean, is it really meaningful to discuss technical recessions when the average American has effectively been in one since about 1978? Feels like less earnings power huh, not even flatline. I guess perhaps it's just stories and our conception of the 60s and 70s, maybe things weren't *that* great back in the day. But I know my grandparents seemed to be doing ok, with very little education, one person working, and blue collar jobs.
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Feb 14, 2023 21:21
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pmchem posted:heh, figure you'd like this tweet from today This guy has been on point with his HOPE model. I have to believe that we would already be seeing impacts in employment (most lagging indicator) in a normal cycle though. We're in a new "living with disease/people taking multiple full time jobs" economy though, things are so goddamn strange. Maybe going to get even stranger.
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Feb 23, 2023 20:10
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pmchem posted:.... after the FY24 federal budget gets eviscerated in whatever debt-ceiling compromise is struck. ahhh goddamnit. This is going to be such a shitshow. And honestly is making me want to get bearish again, or at least buy some insurance. Will there be any R's who will work with dems on this? Or will everyone completely capitulate to "gut anything useful out of the budget while funding the space force to fight back against the jewish space laser menace" If the latter is more than about 20-30%, I should probably get more bearish.
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Feb 27, 2023 21:12
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 12:04 |
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Fixed!
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Jan 8, 2024 18:00
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