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labor market remains tight, excess consumer savings over pre-pandemic levels have come down over the last year and a half but still remain elevated. the fed still has the potential to force a recession, but my personal expectation is flat growth in 2023 and any recession in 2024 but as the last 3 years have shown, even if your half-informed prognostications about the fed turn out to be right, the exogenous shocks to the market will make you nailing the fed's response pointless
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Feb 15, 2023 08:21
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 05:08 |
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/ShayneOnChayne/status/1634854824192909312?s=20 on the other hand they banked for such a niche sector, and invested in assets that would do poorly when they're niche sector does poorly. it certainly strongly points to a recession, perhaps a severe recession in the world of vc backed tech startups, but i think it's a little early to be drawing conclusions about the wider economy
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Mar 12, 2023 21:19
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unless we see the threat of contagion develop in the next week, i have to figure we're at least going to see another 25bps
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Mar 13, 2023 06:32
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i'm not particularly concerned about svb and related fallout, but it is notably larger than the typical failed bank and collapsed in an unusually quick and public fashion. looking at the last bank to go into fdic receivership, almena state bank back in october 2020, had $70 million in deposits at the time. signature bank had $88 billion in deposits and svb had $175 billion in deposits. so we're talking multiple orders of magnitude higher than your typical bank failure, with svb as the second largest after wamu. roku's ~$400 million account at svb is almost six times the entire total of the last bank to go under. even if it isn't panic worthy it's certainly news worthy if anything it's the first tangible sign that interest rate hikes are doing something after almost every metric has remained sticky over the last few months
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Mar 14, 2023 02:04
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i'm not opposed, but there's probably a good chance it ends up becoming indistinguishable from either a thread in cspam or dnd. would probably add more to the mods plate to keep it on a more bfc track
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Mar 14, 2023 23:38
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 05:08 |
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no recession in 2024, as biden has had the fed rig the markets
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Jan 9, 2024 07:40
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