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BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Selling high on Hronek. This was a breakout year for him and I don't love that we're getting rid of him, but that's a great return for a team that won't be competitive until Hronek is extended anyway.

It's absurd that Vancouver is buying.

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BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1631301232026349568

meh return, but fair given the circumstances -- very happy to get a late 1st from a UFA that the Wings weren't going to be able to re-sign that's had a mess of a season.

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Paracaidas posted:

And now, you don't have to!

This is why Ottawa is starting to go for it and Detroit pulled the plug. Ottawa is still in good shape, as evidenced by how they absolutely dummied Detroit back-to-back, but all of those Detroit prospects are likely NHLers, and the core is being built around under-22 players.

Detroit is going to have an incredible amount of depth. They're going to have to work some magic to get some true elite forward talent before they'll be contenders.

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Jamwad Hilder posted:

was just looking at the schedule this week and Boston plays Detroit at 1pm on Saturday, and then they both fly to Detroit for a 1:30pm game on Sunday. Kind of goofy. I assume one of them is a rescheduled game but I don't remember a game being postponed.

Nope, it's been that way since the schedule was released. The Wings' entire March schedule is actually very stupid, with 15 games and 4 back-to-backs. It's a big reason we had the sell-off.

Also why I hesitated on buying tickets for this one -- Wings @ Bruins is always stupid expensive and I already got my share of pain from the October game. I hope Bertuzzi lights us up.

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Maurice might be bad, but I don't know how to pin this on coaching:



They're having abysmal performance relative to their talent, and it might just be terrible luck as much as bad coaching, but if you're underperforming your talent then people are always going to look first to the coach

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

rex rabidorum vires posted:

Oh hey it's the literal thing I wrote a bunch of bullshit about in the off-season about why Mathews is the vastly more valuable player.

This year at 5v5 Conor McDavid's Edmonton Oilers have 58 goals for and 53 goals against. A spread of +5 sandwiched between Robert Thomas and Sam Bennett ranked 169th amongst forwards with 200 minutes or more of 5v5 ice time. Unlike years past though, McDavid is having an extremely strong xG season so it's kind of funny... previously when McDavid has had coin flip 5v5 outcomes he's been in line with his expecteds.

Mathews, by contrast, was on the ice for 56 goals for and 28 against. If you want to break it down by rates it's even more stark. Matthew's is 6th in league with 3.95 goals for his team per 60 minutes of ice time. That is good for 6th in the league. Conor is 52nd best with 3.32 goals for 60. Of course where McDavid has always struggled in the goals for split is the defensive side. At a rate of 1.98 goals against per 60 Mathew's isn't in the elite preventative category, but he's 77th in the league which still ranks as extremely good. With 3.03 goals against per 60 McDavid drops in at 339th of 433 players.

Point being McDavid is the most offensively talented player in the league *especially* when on the powerplay, but his 5v5 (actual) numbers remain sub-standard IMO and saying he's the most valuable player in the league when he only excels at 1 side of a two sided coin seems to diminish what it actually takes to be valuable and win games/be successful.

GA/60 doesn't tell you much that +/- doesn't. McDavid is better than Matthews on xGA/60 this season; so individualizing the metric somewhat actually ends up favoring McDavid.

I don't think I'd actually go to the mat saying McDavid is better two-way than Matthews, but McDavid's defensive woes have been overstated historically and are especially so this season, and you don't even need fancystats to see it.

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

rex rabidorum vires posted:

You're loving high. +/- is dog poo poo because it includes short handed goals and empty netters against and some other random rear end poo poo. You must not be reading either. Conor McDavdi's defensive woes have not been over stated. He's literally bottom 1/3rd of forwards in actual outcomes this season. Over the last 3 seasons at 5v5 Conor McDavid is on the ice for 2.72 goals against per 60 which is good for 329th of 472 players (5v5 600 minutes ice time forwards only). That ranks him in the bottom 30th percentile of the league. Over that time he has outscored it and that's because 20/21 and 21/22 were 2 of Conor's BEST 5v5 years of his entire career only overshadowed by '16/17 which is....coincidentally....Conor's best defensive year in actual goals against and expected. But Conor's career is basically 4 years of 57%+ goals for at 5v5 and 4 years at 50 to 52% at 5v5. Point being Conor's defensive deficiencies are not overblown. He's freaking awful. See below for MORE

If your goalie isn't getting shot on you can't get scored on. Pretty simple. Yes I understand there are also 1000 other variables that go into this and actual goals against. I've also *always* tried to compare same season to same season when talking about Matthews and McDavid for the exact reason you state and yes there are tons of variables and coaches and *on* and *on* and *on* so year by year lets go -
all numbers 5v5 and forwards with 200 minutes of ice time using Nat Stat 'cause it's my 2nd home

2015-2016: (439 total players) McDavid 3.3 aGA/60 (434) and 2.47 xGA/60 (372). No Matthews. Alex Ovechkin 1.71 aGA (74) 1.99 xGA (84) Crosby 2.13 aGA (217) 2.23 xGA (226)
2016-2017: (434 total players) McDavid 2.14 aGA/60 (193 ) and 2.32 xGA/60 (272) Matthews 2.38 aGA (294) 2.59 xGA (396) Ovechkin 2.27 aGA (246) 2.54 xGA (379) Crosby 2.36 aGA (280) 2.51 xGA (372)
2017-2018: (447 total players) McDavid 2.72 aGA/60 (354) 2.76 xGA/60 (418) Matthews 2 aGA (96) 2.76 xGA (417) Ovechkin 2.65 aGA (333) 2.87 xGA (438) Crosby 2.61 aGA (317) 2.33 xGA (210)
2018-2018: (449 total players) McDavid 3.3 aGA/60 (427) 2.88 xGA/60 (428) Matthews 3.41 aGA (436) 2.81 xGA (418) Ovechkin 2.83 aGA (434) 2.96 (436) Crosby 2.06 aGA (106) 2.29 xGA (162)
2019-2020: (428 total players) McDavid 3.3 aGA/60 (398) 2.91 xGA/60 (412) Matthews 2.29 aGA (163) 2.36 (208) Ovechkin 3.24 aGA (392) 2.58 xGA (335) Crosby 2.95 aGA (342) 2.64 xGA (360)
2020-2021: (429 total players) McDavid 3.07 aGA/60 (375) 2.37 xGA/60 (272) Matthews 2.01 aGA (112) 2.06 (111) Ovechkin 2.7 aGA (304) 2.39 xGA (287) Crosby 2.12 aGA (141) 2.25 xGA (221)
2021-2022: (477 total players) McDavid 2.26 aGA/60 (147) 2.43 xGA/60 (199) Matthews 3.06 aGA (385) 2.04 xGA (24) Ovechkin 2.82 aGA (337) 2.69 (359) Crosby 2 aGA (78) 2.62 xGA (319)
2022-2023: (433 total players) McDavid 3.03 aGA/60 (340) 2.57 xGA (199) Matthews 1.98 aGA (80) 2.68 xGA (248) Ovechkin 2.74 aGA (282) 3.22 xGA (422) Crosby 2.49 aGA (216) 2.83 xGA (321)


Ugh this took so long I forgot my freaking point. Oh right

1. Anyway you slice it Conor McDavic is a bottom 1/3rd forward in actual goals against as well as expected goals against. Whether this hurts or helps the Oilers cause of 'winning' is up to you. I remain of the opinion I'd prefer the super star outscore teams significantly 5v5 and score sick powerplay goals. YMMV.
2. Here lies Sid. Not elite defensively. Propped up by sv%.
3. Matthews plays just enough defense to not hinder his team too much and scores at a ridiculous pace. Also helped by sv% in actual outcomes a bunch. Except that one time. Which is lol.
4. Ovechkin. I didn't really have anything else tbh.
5. I should have included like Landeskog or MacKinnon as another contrast but I was already 2/3rds through making my eyes bleed so look it up yourself if you're curious.



:hmmyes:

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

the man set himself up for the dunk here

https://twitter.com/lukefoxjukebox/status/1634575409227395072

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

I would prefer the Penguins in because the Islanders' 1st needs to be good

also: nice

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

lol NHL. I guess the upside is that counterfeits will be pro quality?

https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1638122338758676480

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

I don't really give a poo poo how popular the NHL is but hockey has the best jerseys in sports and it sucks that all NHL jerseys except the Adidas authentics are trash. It sucks that the company responsible for the trash replicas is going to be making everything now. The Reebok replicas weren't amazing but they were good enough.

Most fans are wearing the cheapest jerseys when you go to a game, nobody cares except the obsessive fans

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

bookmark this one

https://twitter.com/RyanHanaWWP/status/1640900364252610561

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Duckman2008 posted:

B. He is, so far, easily the best Preds player of all time

Shea Weber was pretty good

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Cartoon Man posted:

I’m of the opinion that a cup must be won before a statue gets built.

ooooh don't tell these guys

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BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

T-Bone posted:

If the Devils win out (certainly not a given with how much Buffalo needs the game tonight), then Carolina has to beat Florida in their last game to win the division.

So a pretty big game for not just the division, and for Buffalo's playoff chances, but for the Islanders/Penguins, as Carolina will almost certainly rest players if they don't need to win that game.

I just need the Islanders to miss the playoffs because of their draft pick, so Buffalo, if you win tonight, you'd better win out. Or wait, do I want a Buffalo loss, and to count on the Penguins?

Or the Islanders could just lose to Montreal and make this easier.

[ed: it's amazing how complicated the playoff scenarios are in the last week of the season, this almost never happens]

BRAKE FOR MOOSE fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Apr 11, 2023

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