Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

I personally find Russia, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, attacking Ukraine for an imperialistic land grab with the sole excuse of "it used to be ruled by a version of my home country I am currently LARPing" very alarming, from a viewpoint of a militarily non-aligned neighboring country, which also used to be a part of the Russian Empire some 105 years ago.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

zone posted:

Anyone that thinks capturing Bakhmut and Soledar and the nearby towns will be some gigantic "victory" for Russia will probably get extremely frustrated at finding out they have to repeat it all over again along the next defensive lines. And there's enough room to repeat this process as many times as needed. Remember that with the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk last year the whole Russian offensive culminated, forming the conditions necessary for the Kharkiv and Kherson offensive.

Much depends on how well the Ukrainian counter attack this Spring works out. If it leads to another large-scale Russian withdrawal on some front then this might be over in a nearish future (1-2 years or so).

Otherwise it will be this, grind for small towns and minor cities until foreseeable future, until something in the Russian leadership changes, or western support implodes.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

zone posted:

The bottleneck for this war is russian materiel rather than their numbers of soldiers under arms. They're already resorting to making strange Frankenstein's monster type technicals, such as the MT-LB with the naval gun mounted on top. The rate of losses of tanks and IFVs don't even match their rate of restoration or production per year even if you only use Oryx's list of battlefield equipment losses. Within another year, I would find myself surprised if Russia has anything approaching an actual land army left.

Well, short answer yes I agree. But the longer answer, the grind can work both ways, towards Dnieper or towards borders. Since Ukrainian armed forces realistically cannot go beyond the 1994 borders, there really is nothing stopping the Russian high command from keeping the grind up, even if the front goes to follow the actual borders. Eastern part of Ukraine is still completely devastated, and the manpower is something that the Russians simply will not run out of. Along with 50's 60's era gear that nobody bought off when the Soviet Union collapsed, let alone they find someone to supply them with gear.

It is a war of attrition and a waiting game at this point, unless the Ukrainian army can keep achieving major victories, which puts actual pressure to the Russian ruling elite to take their ball and go home.

Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Mar 5, 2023

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Arc Hammer posted:

So when bakhmut falls, then what?

The frontline moves outside Bakhmut.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Arc Hammer posted:

So it'll be a nothingburger "victory" that Russia will hail as a decisive blow against the Commie Nazi Ukrainians while the reality is they've captured seventeen square feet and Field Marshall Ivan moves advances his vodka cabinet two inches closer to Kyiv.

Pretty much yes. Its a minor city and Ukraine already has prepared positions for the eventual withdrawal. The city is completely flattened, and the only thing won is that the high command can move some markers on the map.

That scene you referenced from Blackadder season 4 is eerily close to the reality here.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

"Won't someone please think how awful that poor imperial colonist must feel."

Yeah, and the Ukrainians whose homes, lives and most earthly possessions those Russians just took for themselves as prizes as they drove them away to live their lives as rootless refugees were surely overflowing with joy. And if you wish to reply me with "STFU you have no idea what you are talking about", please go read about what happened to the Karelians, who lived in the parts of Finland that Soviet Union took after WW2.

I have little to no sympathy for those Russian colonists who moved in after 2014, they only lost their money on their bad bet of being the first vultures to pick on what was left at the area after the ruling elite took theirs.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Turtle Watch posted:

I agree that lady’s vacation being ruined in the war is not worthy of much sympathy. I just wanted to clarify what was meant more broadly by saying things such as “Russian colonists go home”. The resources that have been posted here are interesting, and I understand your specific meaning better. The kind of eliminationist rhetoric I was referring to is possibly just the kind of nonsense raving you can hear from any random person on twitter and not especially representative.

No-one here said anything besides "Russia should go back home and pay the bill". Why do you insist on constantly bringing up some imaginary "eliminationistic rhetoric", and demanding people to clarify their opinions?

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008


Unnecessary cruelty, shamanistic benefits but only if you believe into them, and a showing of being rich and powerful enough to get regularly such treatments. No wonder why Putin is into it, all three boxes tick.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008


"So for the Hereford Times; how many barrels of gasoline do you have in your tank depots, and can you please send their exact locations so our camera crew can come up to take some pictures?"

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

HonorableTB posted:

Pro-Ukrainian group? How could the CIA do this

Pro-Ukraine can mean anything here. This was still the time in this war where Eastern Europe EU members and Germany with France were having a political infight on how to react to the war. Nordstreams getting broken beyond easy or quick fix meant that "Ignore Eastern members as a policy, and normalize relations with Russia" was no longer an option to Scholz's government. It would be a lie to say that there weren't parties inside EU that were glad to see that those gaslines went away.

Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Mar 7, 2023

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Cthulu Carl posted:

gently caress, count it anyway. One (1) Armata: Captured.

Probably a better thank than those vaporware T-14's anyway.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

zone posted:

You say this, and then apparently even Russian tankmen think the same too. Those who tried out the Armata said categorically they refused to trust their lives to that rattletrap. They'd sooner go to the front in T-62s than an Armata. This was from last month by the way.

I know, hence the comment. :D

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Karate Bastard posted:

It was totally Luxembourg.

There is a gripping movie about Finland going into a war with Luxemburg: https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kummeli_Stories

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

HonorableTB posted:

Anyone ever play that old PC game Beachhead/Beachhead 2000? Endless waves of enemies doing amphibious and air assaults on your position and all you have is a machine gun nest with some cannon and stuff.

Getting reminded a lot of that when hearing about these human wave attacks. Russia treating the mobiks like the Imperial Guard lol

That's basically also what the AA gun simulator we used for training was, endless waves of air assaults to your position and you got points for accuracy and speed of scoring enough hits to different stuff approaching.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

hemale in pain posted:

I've learned from star wars nerds that they intentionally made Dukat very explicitly and obviously evil in that episode because idiots kept liking the brutal war criminal because his actor was too charismatic

It didn't help that the stories about the people running Bajor in the storylines were almost universally either about religious zealots or just really, really dull.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Power Khan posted:

When you need to make a bigger boom and all you got right now is these defunct roombas

https://twitter.com/VictoriaIakove1/status/1634215848742379521

Its always crazy stuff seeing how inert TNT is compared to what was used before it was invented. Even setting that to fire just makes it burn aggressively and hot, but not go kaboom and all over the place without a primer.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

HonorableTB posted:

Hahaha holy gently caress partisans set a Su-27 on fire at the Central Corner air base in Artyom, Primorsky Krai.


Just a burning jet, nothing else

https://v.redd.it/r266pa82uyma1

Is it confirmed by anyone else yet? I would have posted it earlier but only note of it is that Reddit chain and that could be some display model or parts donor hull being set fire. Could be big news if this was real, though.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Outrail posted:

Mining for explosives

Demining, really. For a bigger boom for the same buck even.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

HonorableTB posted:

I assumed those were rocks coming out of that mine

but that's high explosive isnt it :stare:

Yep, TNT. You can shave it with knife for "extreme kindlins", shoot it with rifle, throw it around, and even toss it to oven and it just burns very very hot. It is stupidly inert until it is not, and that is when you have a primer to set it off.

Similarly, you can put out your cigarette on a cup full of diesel oil. Diesel needs pressure or suitable heat to flame up.

Just small things you learn in the army while bored.

Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Mar 10, 2023

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

HonorableTB posted:

That's pretty incredible. I guess not all explosives are like Hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane

Dr. Klapötke from Germany has an interesting line of work, so to say, you should read about him sometime. He came up with a solution that was so volatile it explodes when you try to look at it via electomicroscope because scanning it is too much. :)

EDIT: Ah you already found his most famous work! :D

Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Mar 10, 2023

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Arc Hammer posted:

How are communications being handled in a world of cell phones? Back when the war started there were all those articles about Russian soldiers utterly failing at Opsec because they kept texting and calling people on their mobile phones that they were somehow allowed to bring into combat.

With Ukrainian partisans possibly blowing poo poo up in occupied regions, are they coordinating using mobile devices as well or would they have a more secure line of communication to avoid getting sniffed out?

Its basically open radiowaves communications. "Archammerkovich from Russianstad, please come home alive, I miss you so" -> go for the predesignated target 2, you have a 24h window starting this evening.

That stuff gets lost in the idle chatter and actual mobile phone usage.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

HonorableTB posted:

It certainly did not help that the Russians at Makiivka and Avdiivka were doing public broadcasts on Telegram from inside those buildings all the way up until the HIMARS hit em

Kadyrovites and Wagner also got a visit from the Aunt Himars after they kept broadcasting from their headquarters and someone on the Ukrainian side pinpointed their location based on the buildings outside the premises.

They fully deserve it, if not for anything else but because it literally is opsec 101, but it is really stupidly funny how it just keeps happening again and again to the Russians.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

zone posted:

Tatarigami has always cautioned everyone to maintain and measure expectations, and insists to never underestimate even an opponent as weak and corrupt as Russia. Even Strelkov said they still have enough gas in the tank to prosecute the war for maybe another year, if at most. Until that mark is reached at least, Ukraine should still give 100% toward the war.

Sadly I think its not really Ukraine's decision to step of the gas pedal in this war, since Russia will not run out of manpower at this rate, or 70-year old reserve's reserve stuff they could not even sell to anyone when the USSR collapsed in the early 90's.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

So hypothetically, if Putin were to travel abroad to non-curbstombed vassal state or likeminded dictatorship, would he be wanted criminal or head of state with diplomatic immunity?

Russia isn't ICC member so they won't be giving a gently caress even after Putin retires or "retires" to live in the farm upstate.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Telsa Cola posted:

I have absolutely zero idea, it may be yesterday, so this isnt a gotcha, but whens the last time we actually applied/arrested someone like that.

Hence, my question. :) If Putin shows up uninvited for an event in ICC country, or for any reason has to land on one, is he going to take off next time on a prison transport, or his Blyat Horse 1?

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Dr. Quarex posted:

Also like, Finland going from somewhat tolerating Russia to becoming NATO's longest border with Russia by far is going to be pretty intense huh

It cannot be emphasized how much everyone in Finland wanted Russia to just stop acting like a pill-popping maniac of a neighbor and become normal country with normal relations. And then all that went to shitcan when Putin decided to go full lunatic with his wars of imperial expansion and all hope for small development here and there towards normal relations from the last 30 years just died overnight.

You can see in the NATO support polls where the Finns collectively gave up and bitterly decided to stop internally excusing the Russia's hostile foreign politics that always were there, we just didn't want to see them.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

free hubcaps posted:

It's mainly cuz the US would be sending a bunch of 'MURICAN military officers to stand trial at the Hague and that doesn't sit well with the military for obvious reasons

They'd have to actually investigate and dish out real sentences to their troops that do hosed up stuff overseas, instead for example finding that it was in fact the Italian ski-lift's cable that attacked that airplane which was totally cruising on the correct heading and altitude all the time. And definitely not the meathead hooraah Marine aviation idiots playing around while on patrol flight.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636796841898708992
Putler's throwing a tantrum about being given the status of a common criminal.

Well, you *have* to give him that being wanted by ICC makes you at least an uncommon criminal.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Jonny Nox posted:

That reminds me. Russia is still camping soldiers in the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

Yes they shell the local town from there.

No, Ukraine is not allowed to return fire.

But get this, according to Amnesty International Ukraine is using buildings to house their troops.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Well, technically being in the unfortunate trajectory of 5-10 9mm bullets on your way to the limousine is a natural way to die, since you really shouldn't catch those with your head.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Splorange posted:

If there's a medically safe way to eat a hat meant to be worn that isn't meant to be edible, I'll eat it or then eat the ban.

Point is, the russian people are apathetic as gently caress and have nothing to ideologically to coalesce around.. he's too chickenshit to kill himself - so he's likely going to die of whatever rear end cancer he has or be murdered by someone in his inner sphere.

Boiled felt hat or leather cap, enough tomato sauce, maybe overboiled potatoes on the side, and small enough pieces and its just like school meal in the early 90's during the depression.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1637049769951477763
I wonder if they're still upset that Turkey didn't permit the sale of uniforms and body armor to them, lol. Funny how anyone that doesn't lick their boots is "historical Russian territory" but OK, whatever lets you idiots sleep at night

I was actually wondering at one point that how come Russian propaganda hasn't tapped to the "We need a crusade to reclaim our holy lands in Constantinople" at all.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008


I don't think that person is talking on this topics based on just theoretical basis. Maybe she eats that soup for a breakfast?

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Pot Smoke Phoenix posted:

Denmark's in NATO. Denmark is also where Lego is headquartered.

Lego should make modular war drones, is what I'm saying.

Out of recycled plastics...

Shame that Sweden's NATO application is stuck, then we could even have IKEA-style instructions and give away that useless tool with every drone box.

And have that picture where you are expected to have another person with you to lift it, and use carpet when assembling one to avoid damaging the floor.

Kökblokket, comes in 2 boxes. Some assembly required.

^^^^ I think that is against several international treaties and it is inhumane even against the Russian PMCs.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

golden bubble posted:

They must be very desperate to start doing this to residents of Moscow, people who's lives sort of matter by the standards of the Russian elite.

I can assure you that when you see the list of students in that place you'll find that Russian elite or their kids are not involved. Or their kids got their diplomas "accidentally awarded due to administrative error" without draft papers.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Shaman Tank Spec posted:

The second one is especially interesting, because I had forgotten that in early days the rhetoric from some circles was that whatever we do, we must help Putin not lose face so he has a graceful exit from the situation, and a year in that sure didn't help.

BTW Macron still brings that up every now and then, and he probably still truly believes that Putin deserves a better exist strategy than 8th floor window.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Barry Bluejeans posted:

If they wanted to take aim at France, it certainly seems as though the easy thing to do would be to twist the ongoing protests as the natural consequence of weak liberal western governance, at least then they'd have actual footage to back up their bullshit. But maybe the propagandists are so scared of the Russian public revolting that they don't want to make the barest reference to people marching in the streets, I dunno.

Revolt with what army? The Putin's Rosgvardiya is more or less intact, and has more than 300k soldiers to stomp on any civil uprising that might show up.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

It's also almost a certainty that DU rounds have been being fired by both sides since the start of the war since a lot of the punchier Soviet surplus and newer Russian 125mm rounds were DU.

But as usual, its only war crime if US/EU/NATO/Ukraine does it, otherwise it is just those plucky little Russians defending their motherland.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Goofy stuff non-included karate is also pretty straightforward and practical but it kinda expects you to have the frame for it since it really doesn't do those locks or other stuff like some others do.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

zone posted:

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if catapults start appearing somewhere on the field at this point. We've already seen both mobiks and the so-called republics' soldiers shown using bows and crossbows. Then there was the talk about being sent into hand to hand combat with trench shovels.

If it comes to relatively static dug in front-lines akin to WW1, and WW2 in some places, improvised catapults and slings for throwing hand grenades over the no-mans land will surely make a comeback.

EDIT:


here is an example from the FDF during WW2.

Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 22:01 on Mar 22, 2023

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply