Aotearoa Newzealand Politics: Roads of National party significance

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exmarx: Feb 18, 2012; The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJfDWqOFGAg

Tēnā koutou, welcome to the Aotearoa Newzealand politics thread.

2018 thread | 2015 thread | 2012 thread | 2011 thread | 2010 thread

What is Aotearoa Newzealand politics ?

Aotearoa Newzealand is a country of about 5.1 million people. It�s a unicameral parliamentary democracy, with the Prime Minister leading the government. The head of state is King Charles 3, represented in-country by a basically ceremonial Governor-General. An important constitutional document is Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the 1840 treaty between European settlers and rangatira Māori that established government by the British Crown, while retaining sovereignty for Māori. Spoiler: some promises got broken !!!

A general election is held every three years, using a mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system. You get two votes: one for your local representative (electorate MP) and one for your preferred party. There are 65 general electorates and seven Māori electorates � people with Māori ancestry can choose to vote on the general electoral roll or the Māori roll. Parties can enter Parliament by either winning an electorate seat or getting 5% of the party vote.

Highly recommend this 90s documentary about the first MMP election in Wellington Central. Insane drama:
https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/campaign

The 120 seats in Parliament are filled by the 72 winning electorate MPs, then extra MPs from each party�s candidate list until proportionality with the party vote is achieved. Coalition governments are the norm � in 2020, a successful Covid response resulted in the first outright majority under MMP, but the Labour Party still invited the Greens into a quasi-coalition arrangement.

The current parliament looks like this:

Who are the main characters ???

Chris Hipkins is the leader of the Labour Party and current Prime Minister. He�s a close friend and ideological ally of Jacinda Ardern, who quit being PM in early 2023. At this stage he hasn�t done much to differentiate himself from her beyond some superficial changes in messaging, but it�s still early days. Labour is the big centre-left social democratic party and has held government since 2017. They were doing pretty badly in the polls, but have bounced back to be pretty much neck and neck with the National Party since Hipkins took over.

Christopher Luxton is the leader of the National Party. He�s a former airline CEO and doesn�t appear to have any personal politics beyond vague social conservatism. Less popular with the public than his party is, but he replaced a series of freaks and dopes as leader so I guess he still looks good by comparison. National is the big centre-right liberal conservative party, supported by farmers and business types. They�ve had recent polling success by talking about crime and supposed wasteful government spending.

Marama Davidson and James Shaw are the co-leaders of the Green Party and Ministers in the current government. They supposedly represent the social justice and climate change wings of the party (respectively). The Greens are a pretty solidly left-wing party now, having jettisoned most of the antivax and �the environment is above left and right� stuff around a decade ago. They�ve done a good job avoiding getting swallowed up by Labour, but a bunch of their diehard supporters are mad because they haven�t managed to achieve an ecosocialist society over the past three years via zero-leverage electoralism. Doesn�t make a lot of sense to me, but whatever.

David Seymour is the leader of the ACT Party. He�s a nasty little worm who managed to increase his party�s vote share by 1,500% between 2017 and 2020. ACT is a far-right libertarian party that loves race baiting, climate change denial, guns, being tough on crime, and reheating American culture war narratives.

Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer are the co-leaders of Te Pāti Māori. They�ve managed to rejuvenate their party following a pretty sad decline, and re-entered Parliament in ~~2017~~ 2020 by winning the seat of Waiariki off Labour. Te Pāti Māori is an indigenous rights party, and they�ve had much more of an activist bent under the current leadership. Couldn�t find any pics of the leaders eating or drinking.

The rest

None of these parties are going to make it into Parliament:

New Zealand First was historically a conservative�centrist kingmaker party and Winston Peters is still a charismatic mf, but ACT has stolen all their voters.
TOP is a party full of centrist technocrat morons. Will never get into Parliament because there just aren�t enough tech guys.
The New Conservatives are busy doing American-style evangelical conservative stuff afaik. Bathroom sickos etc.
There are also half a dozen or so conspiracist parties that might get uncomfortably close to the 5% threshold if they could all work together, but they can�t so they won�t.

There�s an election happening? What are the big issues ?????

It�s happening on 14 October 2023 and could go either way. The 2020 election was a total aberration � Jacinda�s popularity gave Labour a party vote majority and caused a bunch of solid blue seats to flip red. Those are all going to go back to National this year, but it�s also hard to predict whether the bellwethers will stick with their 2020 Labour incumbents.

Some particular electorate races of interest:

Maungakiekie, East Coast, Wairarapa, and Hutt South are held by new Ministers who won them from National in 2020. At this point my guess is they�ll probably stay red, but a lot can change before the election.
Rawiri Waititi is going to win Waiariki again, and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer will almost certainly win Te Tai Hauāuru this time (especially with Speaker Adrian Rurawhe going list-only). They could pick up another seat too.
Green MP Chl�e Swarbrick�s national profile, meme magic, and National-friendly background (law degree, small business owner) led her to take Auckland Central from them in in 2020. Assume she�ll probably keep it in 2023? idk. This time, the Greens are also running serious campaigns in two of the greenest electorates in Aotearoa Newzealand�s greatest city: senior MP and former Minister Julie Anne Genter is standing in Rongotai, and sitting councillor Tamatha Paul is standing in Wellington Central. Neither seat has a Labour incumbent standing and both candidates have a pretty high profile, so they should be ones to watch.

The big issues:

Cost of living: like pretty much everywhere else, Covid and the war on Ukraine have led to high inflation, followed by high interest rates. Jacinda timed her resignation (and laid the groundwork) to enable Hipkins to announce his government�s refocus on cost of living issues. National had been slamming the government on this issue, and are still trying to whip up public anger with dubious claims of wasteful spending. Political management around the cost of living is going to be even more complicated now, thanks to the need for�
Cyclone recovery: Cyclone Gabrielle laid waste to the north and east of the North Island in February, leaving thousands of people homeless amid existing housing shortages, and causing billions of dollars of damage to infrastructure and agricultural land (something like 90% of Northland�s kūmara crop has been wiped out, for example). The recovery is going to be long and complex, and more expensive than for the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquakes. The devastation to export agriculture products will also lead to increased food prices domestically. It�s also put the spotlight on�
Climate change: the cyclone is accelerating the government�s work on issues like managed retreat, which are inevitably going to be polarising. The right-wing parties� new strategy is to argue for adaptation over emissions reduction (which has been much of the government�s focus since 2017). There are going to be really difficult choices � it�s hard to imagine the government progressing agriculture emissions pricing for farmers who have just lost everything, for example.
Crime: disaffected kids keep stealing cars and ram-raiding shops. There�s a load of public hysteria about it, and now about a few incidences of looting in the worst cyclone-affected areas.
Co-governance: it�s become a catch-all scaremongering term for anything the government does to reduce inequities for Māori or realise elements of Te Tiriti. Pretty much just racism, but the government also failed to shape the narrative around it.
China: Aotearoa Newzealand has successfully navigated its relationships with both China (our most important trading partner) and the FVEY countries (our white friends) to date, but this is being challenged by the US�s increasingly aggressive moves in the Pacific. Definitely seems like our foreign policy is hardening, and we�re strengthening our neocolonial role amongst smaller Pacific nations.

Wow! Where can I find out more ???????

Our media landscape is really small and incestuous and they do a bunch of content sharing.

Stuff � Largest and best news website.
NZ Herald � Editorially right-wing, Auckland focus, unusable website.
RNZ � Public broadcaster. Pretty good, but used to be better. Mediawatch is still the best news product in the country.
The Spin Off � Centrist Auckland middle class handwringing, riddled with awful advertorials.
Newsroom � Fair to good in-depth journalism, plus the worst opinion section I�ve ever seen. Very funny comments policy.

Happy posting!

exmarx fucked around with this message at 04:54 on Mar 11, 2023

# ? Mar 11, 2023 02:35

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Apr 27, 2024 16:02

Ghostlight: Sep 25, 2009; maybe for one second you can pause; try to step into another person's perspective, and understand that a watermelon is cursing me

Fourth best op

# ? Mar 11, 2023 02:52

Weatherman: Jul 30, 2003; WARBLEKLONK

Shame we can't have "Yeah" and "Nah" instead of "Post" and "Reply"

# ? Mar 11, 2023 02:59

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

how 'bout them sandflies?

# ? Mar 11, 2023 02:59

cptn_dr: Sep 7, 2011; Seven for beauty that blossoms and dies

Weatherman posted:

Shame we can't have "Yeah" and "Nah" instead of "Post" and "Reply"

Yeah!

cat botherer posted:

how 'bout them sandflies?

Nah!

# ? Mar 11, 2023 03:02

CODChimera: Jan 29, 2009

alright alright alright

# ? Mar 11, 2023 03:06

exmarx: Feb 18, 2012; The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

Ghostlight posted:

Fourth best op

how far things have come...

# ? Mar 11, 2023 03:06

Firstscion: Apr 11, 2008; Born Lucky

Only in New Zealand!

# ? Mar 11, 2023 03:06

echinopsis: Apr 13, 2004; by Fluffdaddy

did the last thread get too spicy

# ? Mar 11, 2023 03:23

Xik: Mar 10, 2011; Dinosaur Gum

Winston and the OP both looking fly

# ? Mar 11, 2023 03:24

Wafflecopper: Nov 27, 2004; I am a mouth, and I must scream

getting in on the ground floor so the thread can collapse on me in the next earthquake

# ? Mar 11, 2023 03:45

klen dool: May 7, 2007; Okay well me being wrong in some limited situations doesn't change my overall point.

Those banners rule exmarx

# ? Mar 11, 2023 04:08

Saros: Dec 29, 2009; Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Personally I am excited for Egg Chris vs Sausage roll Chris.

# ? Mar 11, 2023 04:26

Xik: Mar 10, 2011; Dinosaur Gum

Someone needs to Photoshop a business egg burger. Just put that head between those burger buns cmon...

# ? Mar 11, 2023 04:33

Slavvy: Dec 11, 2012

Xik posted:

Winston and the OP both looking fly

# ? Mar 11, 2023 04:44

voiceless anal fricative: May 6, 2007

What a sad and factually inaccurate OP: Te Pāti Māori re-entered parliament after winning Waiariki in 2020, not 2017. They were out of parliament between 2017 and 2020 after Te Ururoa Flavell lost Waiariki to Labour's Tāmati Coffey.

# ? Mar 11, 2023 04:49

exmarx: Feb 18, 2012; The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

whoops, fixed. thanks for endorsing the bit about chl�e 👍

# ? Mar 11, 2023 04:55

voiceless anal fricative: May 6, 2007

The bit about Chloe is open to interpretation rather than straight up wrong. The reason she won in 2020:

- Unprecedented swing to the left
- Underwhelming Labour and National candidates not currently in parliament, sharp comparison to one of the country's highest profile politicians
- Very successful ground campaign (3000 new voters registered to vote in the electorate, almost all of whom voted for Chloe)
- High profile national referendum and debate on the legalisation of cannabis, in which Chloe was almost the only MP with any visibility
- Already the second largest Green party electorate in the country thanks to a high proportion of their core demographics: students, rainbow community, the arts community, and wealthy educated liberal pākehā

I don't actually think her law degree and the few months she spent helping a friend set up a small business counted for much among voters, although they are part of her "bright young radical who actually has her head screwed on right" vibe that makes her so appealing to the rich Ponsonby-ites.

voiceless anal fricative fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Mar 11, 2023

# ? Mar 11, 2023 05:16

BuckyDoneGun: Nov 30, 2004; fat drunk

Good OP, OP.

# ? Mar 11, 2023 05:18

exmarx: Feb 18, 2012; The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

bike tory posted:

- Already the second* largest Green party electorate in the country thanks to a high proportion of their core demographics: students, rainbow community, the arts community, and wealthy educated liberal pākehā

*third in 2020, and fourth in 2017

# ? Mar 11, 2023 05:35

voiceless anal fricative: May 6, 2007

exmarx posted:

*third in 2020, and fourth in 2017

actually fourth in 2020, greens got 8000 votes in Mt Albert too

e: gosh it's good that post wasn't the OP, that would've been embarrassing

voiceless anal fricative fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Mar 11, 2023

# ? Mar 11, 2023 05:40

Trompe le Monde: Nov 4, 2009

Bad country, bad politics, good coffee.

# ? Mar 11, 2023 05:41

redleader: Aug 18, 2005; Engage according to operational parameters

please strike all references to "Newzealand" (and also to the older "New Zealand") from the title and thread.

# ? Mar 11, 2023 06:33

Slavvy: Dec 11, 2012

Trompe le Monde posted:

Bad country, bad politics, bad posters

# ? Mar 11, 2023 06:43

Sphyre: Jun 14, 2001

new zealand sucks!

# ? Mar 11, 2023 06:50

CODChimera: Jan 29, 2009

we're gonna need a better navy

# ? Mar 11, 2023 07:05

redleader: Aug 18, 2005; Engage according to operational parameters

Slavvy posted:

# ? Mar 11, 2023 07:22

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

# ? Mar 11, 2023 07:38

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

CODChimera posted:

we're gonna need a better navy

I cannot quote this hard enough

# ? Mar 11, 2023 07:38

Confusedslight: Jan 9, 2020

https://twitter.com/harrypeterson_/status/1634006375872483329?s=20

Is Roy Morgan a somewhat reliable poll? Because the last poll before this one had the greens on 5.7%.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/485637/labour-rises-in-new-curia-poll-greens-dangerously-close-to-threshold Also thanks for the new updated op!

# ? Mar 11, 2023 07:48

exmarx: Feb 18, 2012; The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

Confusedslight posted:

Is Roy Morgan a somewhat reliable poll?

nope

# ? Mar 11, 2023 07:53

voiceless anal fricative: May 6, 2007

Roy Morgan is fine? They do tend to favour the left and the small parties a bit, but they're consistent, have decent methodology and also a long history of their own polling data to norm poo poo off.

# ? Mar 11, 2023 08:30