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What a sad and factually inaccurate OP: Te Pāti Māori re-entered parliament after winning Waiariki in 2020, not 2017. They were out of parliament between 2017 and 2020 after Te Ururoa Flavell lost Waiariki to Labour's Tāmati Coffey.
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Mar 11, 2023 04:49
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The bit about Chloe is open to interpretation rather than straight up wrong. The reason she won in 2020: - Unprecedented swing to the left - Underwhelming Labour and National candidates not currently in parliament, sharp comparison to one of the country's highest profile politicians - Very successful ground campaign (3000 new voters registered to vote in the electorate, almost all of whom voted for Chloe) - High profile national referendum and debate on the legalisation of cannabis, in which Chloe was almost the only MP with any visibility - Already the second largest Green party electorate in the country thanks to a high proportion of their core demographics: students, rainbow community, the arts community, and wealthy educated liberal pākehā I don't actually think her law degree and the few months she spent helping a friend set up a small business counted for much among voters, although they are part of her "bright young radical who actually has her head screwed on right" vibe that makes her so appealing to the rich Ponsonby-ites. voiceless anal fricative fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Mar 11, 2023 |
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Mar 11, 2023 05:16
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exmarx posted:*third in 2020, and fourth in 2017 actually fourth in 2020, greens got 8000 votes in Mt Albert too e: gosh it's good that post wasn't the OP, that would've been embarrassing voiceless anal fricative fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Mar 11, 2023 |
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Mar 11, 2023 05:40
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Roy Morgan is fine? They do tend to favour the left and the small parties a bit, but they're consistent, have decent methodology and also a long history of their own polling data to norm poo poo off.
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Mar 11, 2023 08:30
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good thing there's a bill in select committee at the moment that would introduce deposit insurance up to $100k  also that our banking sector is well regulated with fairly high requirements for banks to hold liquid capital
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Mar 13, 2023 00:57
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Progressive JPEG posted:if half of your deposits leave in a panic, it doesn't matter if the required capital margin had been 1% or 20% No but the capital requirements put a limit on the risk-weighted assets that banks can hold, which makes a bank run much less likely. The way SVB was behaving that lead to the run wouldn't have been legal in NZ, for e.g. Deposit insurance is a sensible bit of legislation, but it's not like it prevents bank runs either, nor will it fix the real risk to the NZ banking sector which is the ridiculous concentration of lending around residential property.
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Mar 13, 2023 01:44
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Not entirely, obviously, given the two banks who just got taken out by bank runs!Confusedslight posted:https://twitter.com/harrypeterson_/status/1634006375872483329?s=20 Curia looking like the outlier with the Kantar poll out now, though overall left/right support fairly close across all three: quote:Labour: 36 percent, down 2 https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/485896/new-poll-shows-labour-could-form-government-with-greens-te-pati-maori
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Mar 13, 2023 06:19
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Bernard Hickey does good macroeconomic analysis imo. He's kinda racist in an anti immigrant way though, and his other political takes are no better or worse than the average Labour-ish punter. Re: the Greens, there's a solid faction who want the party to be activists and nothing else. They don't want the party to have any ministers in big portfolios at all because then they're bound by cabinet rules. So it's very possible the Greens wouldn't want to form a full coalition government (something they've never done) even if they were in a position to do so, over a cooperation agreement with confidence and supply. Plenty of members would be happy for the party to sit in opposition. Also the party decision making on whether to accept a deal or not is done by delegates, usually with the rest of their most active branch members sitting around them thanks to Zoom, so it's not like the party leaders who do the negotiating actually get to make the decision.
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Mar 14, 2023 06:45
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Xik posted:Seriously? Why the gently caress am I voting for these morons then. They've consistently got the best policy platform, some really competent and capable MPs all the way down to like #15 on the list*, and they're a very safe bet to get seats in parliament. That's about as good as it gets under MMP. *may revise this depending on how the list ranking turns out, but there are some great new faces in there this time
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Mar 14, 2023 07:08
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I don't think there are many/any that would walk away from a deal if it meant that National/ACT would be able to form a govt, but yeah certainly a big faction would prefer to take the cross benches and give confidence and supply to a minority Labour government over taking seats in cabinet.
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Mar 14, 2023 08:15
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Taitale posted:I really think you are overstating the size of that faction given the poo poo they have swallowed this term in exchange for literally nothing. The deal they got this term is pretty much exactly what the faction I'm talking about wants. A couple of decent portfolios but otherwise the ability to criticise the government. Current situation is a great example of this deal working for the greens. If Shaw was in cabinet he'd have been outvoted and these climate policies would've been axed anyway, but then he'd have had to come out and try to sell it as a good thing to the media and the party.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:41
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exmarx posted:they'd have way more influence in cabinet Generally agree and ahead of the last election when my branch was discussing what our priorities were in potential coalition talks I pushed to prioritise roles in cabinet. No one really expected Labour to get a majority on their own, but they did so I actually think the deal they got this time (with no leverage!) was pretty good and preferable to having like a single seat in cabinet. Confusedslight posted:I'm in the Dunedin electorate and there seems to be a nice little momentum building at the moment already. Get involved in Francisco's campaign, he's a gc and will have good people helping. Door knocking is a fun and effective way to contribute!
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Mar 14, 2023 20:05
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klen dool posted:I still don't quite understand why labour gave greens anything at all when they didn't need them. Recognising competence mostly, they were both really complex roles that Labour didn't have the bandwidth for but supported and can take credit for now. In the case of James as climate minister it adds a buffer between them and some of the more tricky changes too. Ultimately they were pretty heavily ring-fenced roles, so there was almost no downside for Labour. James Shaw is also one of like, maybe four people in the country who understands the ETS well enough to write legislation like the ZCA.
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Mar 14, 2023 22:20
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Did it work for either of you?
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Mar 15, 2023 07:22
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Can confirm I have been on one of the party lists sent out to every voter.
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Mar 16, 2023 02:59
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I was trying to remember this oval office's name so I went to the national party website and holy poo poo how do they have so many MPs who look like their skin isn't properly attached to their skull
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Mar 17, 2023 19:43
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klen dool posted:Yeah I guess I'm making up a just-so story here, in reality no coalition would be formed and I presume we'd have another election Several of the coalitions that NZF has been part of over the years are examples of coalitions who hate each other. Helen Clark hated Winston ever since he picked Bolger over her in 1996, yet they were in coalition 9 years later. Winston and the Greens hate each other's guts, but worked together in 2017.
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Mar 19, 2023 19:53
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hence:bike tory posted:worked together
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Mar 20, 2023 04:04
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 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 21, 2023 05:30
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Auckland Council has okayed that TERF speaker's event this Saturday at Albert Park, so counter protest is on for any/all Auckland goons who can make it. 11am at the band rotunda.
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Mar 21, 2023 07:11
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Hipkins has zero risk tolerance, so he's def not going to do anything that'll give Nat/ACT any ammo
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Mar 21, 2023 21:00
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Nah that decision is risk aversion too, Nash is key to Labour's relationship with the business community which was presumably deemed a greater risk to lose.
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Mar 21, 2023 23:33
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That sure is a user title youve picked up there
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Mar 22, 2023 02:44
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exmarx posted:my personal opinion about that british freak is that nz should have an extremely high bar for doing border hawk stuff, and more pressure should have been put on venues to cancel instead. is this a weasel way of saying you don't think she should be banned?
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Mar 22, 2023 20:14
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Confusedslight posted:Whats good nz media? I pretty much rely on rnz and twitter and maybe spinoff once in a while for my nz news. there's no "good" NZ media but yeah I read RNZ for mostly neutral reporting of current events and NZHerald to get a feel for the ~*°•discourse•°*~ I follow re: news on Instagram too, it's the TVNZ offshoot targeted at zoomers and they produce interesting content
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Mar 24, 2023 20:07
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Good protest, if you're going to the Welly one tomorrow don't forget ear protection.
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Mar 25, 2023 02:05
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Yeah I realised half way there I had forgotten some, but fortunately had my earbuds in my bag which worked
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Mar 25, 2023 02:31
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Slavvy posted:Has an incredibly powerful 'morons trying to look smart' vibe turn your monitor on luxo posted:"As much as you may actually like or dislike her views, you actually have to defend the right for people to have free speech in a liberal democracy. The way to deal with that as I have said is have other speech and debate counter the view that you don't like, rather than intimidating behaviour." hope someone points out to him that parker has called for men to patrol women's bathrooms with guns, to look out for trans women trying to use them
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Mar 26, 2023 07:20
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Progressive JPEG posted:actually I believe the claim as stated is that it's all the violence  no she didn't say "all"quote:I am a prevention violence minister [sic]. I know who causes violence in the world, it is white cis men. That is white cis men who cause violence in the world. Not a hint of a lie there. Hard "not all men" from Mr Luxon and co.
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Mar 28, 2023 04:28
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cis white men cause violence is just a statement of fact, fam
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Mar 28, 2023 05:03
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Mar 28, 2023 06:15
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the guy needs to leave cabinet, and probably parliament, purely on the grounds that he just got owned by Simeon Brown
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Mar 28, 2023 19:29
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Serephina posted:A lot of melodrama there, but what's the scandal exactly? I'm not hearing anything about political motivations, it's just a business closing/downsizing early and the talking heads being unhappy? The ceo and head of news both quit within the last month, and they were the two champions of the idea. It's just a bean counter decision now. Station lose money: close station, sell assets. I'm sure Tova and Dunc and Garner will land on their feet elsewhere but it's bad for the media landscape as a whole imo
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Mar 30, 2023 04:17
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BuckyDoneGun posted:That's what happened. Mediaworks is a radio company now. TV3 is now owned by Warner Bros Discovery. Yeah ironically mediaworks had to spend a bunch of money setting up a news team again for todayFM because they'd sold it off with their tv assets just a couple of years ago
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Mar 30, 2023 08:01
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put your clocks back for the winter
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Apr 1, 2023 09:32
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PSA in case anyone missed it: everyone over 30 can get a bivalent covid booster as of yesterday. You just can't haven't had a booster or covid in the last 6 months.
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Apr 2, 2023 05:43
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https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131678385/green-party-releases-initial-election-list-elizabeth-kerekere-jumps-to-four no big surprises really. Golriz down to #9 behind Hūhana Lyndon probably the biggest upset. Efeso Collins is on the list at #12. It's unlikely to change much based on members votes, I can't remember the exact process but I think the most someone can move based on member rankings is 2 spots?
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Apr 3, 2023 02:30
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xiw posted:Naw the member vote can rearrange it completely - it's the post-member-vote adjustments for balancing or politics that are capped at 2 positions. Ah right I couldn't remember what order it all happened in echinopsis posted:and like if you have asthma diabtes whatnot I've been telling people about it in conversation and it's kind of shocking A) how few people knew and B) how few people care "Oh another one, is there even any point?" is the general response. Like these aren't antivaxxers or anything and many of the same people were fully pro lockdown 18 months ago. mweb posted:I've been a dues paying member for the Greens for nearly a decade and while I get frustrated at times when that member list ranking email arrives in my inbox I actually feel like I have a part to play in the process and I feel rejuvenated Yeah Francisco is a really good vote. Lawrence is another one too far down the initial list imo. Otherwise the top 7 are a really solid core, idk anything about Hūhana Lyndon but she's got an impressive CV so I guess her current ranking makes sense.
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Apr 3, 2023 21:11
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mweb posted:I heard again this rumor that Cameron Slater has had yet another stroke or series of strokes or that the result of his last stroke is bad and causing continuing complications, and he is not in good shape and trying to hide it from the media. One poster in a telegram group chat said he was incontinent but I cannot confirm any of this and it may be a total fabrication I am just going to assume this is true regardless, because it makes me feel like there really is karmic justice in the world.
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Apr 6, 2023 21:23
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Apr 8, 2023 22:13
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