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Rate Lock. I also wouldn't touch any variable interest rate poo poo. Just refinance when we inevitably and rashly crash interest rates again.
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Mar 21, 2023 21:31
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Hadlock posted:In this hypothetical situation due to short term cash flow the loan profile would need to be variable, either a 5/1 or 7/1 Man, I mean an ARM now makes more sense than an ARM a couple years ago but I wouldn't feel great about it. Baddog posted:It's unlikely that rates are higher in five years than they are now, but gotta evaluate what happens if they are. Basically this. We're not in bad times right now, we're in uncertain times. Fixed rate is almost certainly short-term pain but it puts you in more control. How much lower are the ARM rates?
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Mar 21, 2023 23:16
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Warmachine posted:Well, that certainly feels like a bold move given that one of the proximate causes of this crisis seems to be interest rates rising, unless the goal is to state that the Fed is serious and that yes if you're holding onto assets that'll be hosed by interest rates you better sort your poo poo because we're not stopping. Did you just forget about the inflation problem or...?
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Mar 23, 2023 01:27
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The impact of inflation has, generally, been much worse for the average person than the impact of a couple of banks having problems.
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Mar 23, 2023 02:26
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Hadlock posted:Strong agree, I'll go even further and say short of another black swan event I'd be surprised if we see below 4.25% in the next 15 years I mean, the last 15 years spent a LOT of time under 4.25%, not just during turbulent times, so that seems like an aggressive prediction. 15 years is a REALLY long time and I don't know that people will still be operating under the current set of concerns for that stretch.
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Apr 18, 2023 19:22
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I also think people romanticize the boomer generation, which really wasn't in the workforce until the 70s. Like, there was a lot of poverty in that generation too, as a % its pretty much the same. And as someone with boomer parents people act like it was unheard of to have 2 working parents but it really wasn't that unusual. Sure there are more today but I don't think it's as dramatic as is generally reported. I do think some things are much harder today for sure, and I think the zoomers have a ton of real challenges too, but we tend to look back at the past generations with some pretty strong rose colored glasses.
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Apr 18, 2023 22:41
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Leperflesh posted:also it is not actually good news that wages continue to not rise as fast as prices, and a booming economy in which that continues can't last, right, because at some point people can't afford to buy things any more Yes, but it seems to indicate that we are one side of that equilibrium still which is not good.
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May 5, 2023 16:58
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pseudanonymous posted:No, the primary driver is corporations raising prices to raise profits and blame supply chain issues, and now we’re seeing knock on effects of that, and other systemic factors like rising wage inequality hitting limits that change behavior on ways that move the economy outside “normal” behavior. Corporations have always tried to price their products as high as the market would allow, they never needed excuses. Normally if a company goes too high a competitor can swoop in and take their profit by lowering their margin but having a higher volume. That can't happen now because.... supply chain issues including labor shortages. Like, did you think before companies were keeping prices lower because they just didn't have a good excuse or something?
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May 5, 2023 20:41
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raminasi posted:That’s actually a theory that’s being argued by some economists: Roughly speaking, the fact that “everyone knows there’s inflation” means that a) companies are more confident that any prices hikes they impose will be matched by competitors, and b) consumers are less motivated to search for lower prices. The WSJ is reporting on it like it’s at least possible, this isn’t strictly some fringe zero hedge thing. esquilax posted:Expectations of inflation being a driver of inflation in and of themselves is not some emerging theory, I'm pretty sure it's been a part of macroeconomics 101 for decades. There's a gap between it being a factor and it being "The Primary Driver"
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May 5, 2023 21:42
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Also when inflation flirts with double digits for a year everything will hit new record highs. Wages are at a new record high too along with corporation profits. That's not unusual, usually these things go up and we had a year where lots of stuff shot up.
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May 5, 2023 21:54
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That'll encourage more people to go out
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May 18, 2023 21:26
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I have to say, I originally thought the no tweets rule was heavy handed but by god it's worked like a charm.
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May 22, 2023 16:27
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"companies want more money" well duh. That's always been the case. "Why are companies able to charge more now without fear of pricing out their customers or a competitor pricing them out of the market" is the actual question. The first thing has literally always been true and its not interesting at all. The 2nd piece is what actually is causing inflation.
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May 23, 2023 16:30
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The Ukraine war and Russian sanctions hits Germany particularly hard. That hasn't passed so it's not super surprising they are still getting a ton of headwind on a recovery.
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May 25, 2023 15:46
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drk posted:Tupelov built a number of commercial airliners, including the first commercial supersonic aircraft, the horrifying Tu-144: That whole story is a rollercoaster ride
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May 29, 2023 02:37
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Cyrano4747 posted:From what I’ve been reading most places tax commercial and residential very differently, and that’s before you get into the value of assorted business taxes and the knock on economic activity- eg commuters from the burbs buying lunch in the city. Sure but if no one is occupying these places, the tax/commuter income isn't coming in anyway. But the problem with switching over is no one is going to kick out paying tenants to convert to residential, so your conditionals are: 1. No tenants 2. Cost effective to convert 3. In an area of residential demand 4. In an area where proper zoning can be done (related to 2, I guess) The overlap there is generally small, so conversion may not be super common. What you may see more likely is new buildings or renovations may lean more toward residential if the market future for CRE looks soft.
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Jun 12, 2023 20:36
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In this case labor is a driver for sure, but not the only one. Demand is also a driver, and demand curves have been really weird and hard to predict. Companies are raising pretty prices because they're greedy, but they've always been greedy. There's a very complex situation allowing that greed to not be tempered.
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Jun 18, 2023 17:58
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street doc posted:
You graph literally says the largest contribution is employee compensation at 50% Or if the bars aren't actually growth then the Y axis makes very little sense. But each graph is equalling 100% so I assume it means "Here are the areas where we've assigned Unit Price Growth" Lockback fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Jun 19, 2023 |
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Jun 19, 2023 14:43
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EU in general is decades behind the US, and any attempt to modernize would take probably most of a decade by itself, longer than I'd be willing to bet this demand can sustain. This is, well not sabre rattling, rattling the box the sabre came in? It's making noise to get ahead of the ugliness when they cut the checks for military hardware while cutting back on social programs. They'll be some feel good stories about new small arms systems, probably some javelin clones. They aren't suddenly going to come out with F-35 competitors that are cost effective.
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Jun 20, 2023 04:43
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There might be a currency but no way India or China are putting their full weight behind it. It'll just be oil fun bux.
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Jul 11, 2023 04:15
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A lot of people still think Russia is a huge player on the world economic playing field when....they're really not. China and (to a lesser extent) India are, but they have way more motivation to be vaguely threatening to the dollar and not really much motivation actually seeing it replaced.
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Jul 11, 2023 19:38
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And the native, sticky population they have is aging. It's a real problem. And while they have a chunk of oil trade, their GDP is like slightly above Italy. I'm not saying it's nothing, but they're not your top choice if you intend to dictate world economic policy.
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Jul 12, 2023 04:42
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Yeah, like you just can't take a random place and expect it to be really easy to convert but there's a lot that would make sense and be reasonably easy, especially with the new relaxed zoning laws. It'd be nice to see more cities do this.
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Jul 13, 2023 23:01
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Why would they feel pressure to drop rates right now? Employment is still sky high and inflation is (at best) barely under control.
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Jul 17, 2023 14:54
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Why would you say the current rates are "restrictive"? They are not anywhere near unprecedented levels. They are at what they were at prior to the 08 crash and pretty much where they were for most of the 90s (and well below the 80s). The anomaly here is the sub-1% they were at for so long, I don't think it's a goal or anything to do whatever you can to get back there. I expect they're mostly motivated to keep things level and only lower them if they need to, not because low interest rates are "the good thing" to have.
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Jul 17, 2023 15:57
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Inflation was pretty low in the 90s too, I'm not sure what you mean about that. And inflation is a big threat to something like LEI. Its also noteable that LEI was catering while interest rates were low too. In any case, I don't think you'll see pressure to lower interest rates UNTIL cracks start forming. They aren't going to proactively drop rates while unemployment was still so far below 5%. That's just going to restart the inflation balloon.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:43
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South Africa affirming that they'd arrest Putin if he stepped on their soil seems like not a great endorsement to the S in BRICS
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Jul 21, 2023 15:56
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Lord_Hambrose posted:Excited to one day inherit my parents house, so I can finally become a property owner. Housing demand will get so high no one will want to live there!
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Jul 27, 2023 18:26
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US defaulting would do a tremendous amount of financial damage and bring serious doubt over the future of the US dollar as the reserve currency but it wouldn't usher in mad max times. People wouldn't resort to cannibalism. There's like, lots and lots of middle ground there.
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Aug 2, 2023 21:14
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That is some chart. Cities, states, regions and countries all being measured against each other in GDP is always going to give weird comparisons.
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Aug 14, 2023 15:14
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pseudanonymous posted:Fundamentals weren’t he fundamental driver of the inflation. The idea has been debunked repeatedly in this thread. This is impacting the M&A market too, which is adjusting but looks different than it did in early 2022.
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Aug 28, 2023 17:35
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I'm getting a new mortgage right now and I'm just building in "probably won't refi for 40 months at least" into my calculations. I'm happy to be wrong but I kinda don't think I will be.
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Sep 29, 2023 23:35
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In the US, prices were lower as demand was lower compounded by construction being cheaper so supply wasn't as squeezed. In some fairness people were also more willing to live in smaller houses that are no longer really built or sought after. You probably had way less student debt, healthcare costs were lower vs middle class wages.
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Sep 30, 2023 14:46
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Construction code is another factor. You have to build to a much higher quality in the "bones" that you may as well add 10% to the construction cost for higher end finishes. End of the day, more luxury new builds doesn't mean anything. It just pushes everything else down the stack. Density and amount of construction is all that matters to help fix out of control valuations.
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Sep 30, 2023 16:43
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Yeah I think it's far less about specific finishes or features and more about being nicer than you had/nicer than what your friends and family have
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Sep 30, 2023 16:53
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Yeah I think those with influence have gotten very addicted to low rates and I'd be a little surprised if they're not brought down again in the next few years, even if that risks another inflation spiral and a quick reversal. Again, I agree your should not depend on that and 7% may still be low, but I'm putting my O/U at about 3.5-4 years before things measurably down. The over may be a smart bet  .
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Oct 1, 2023 15:08
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Gologle posted:God, learning that I could easily afford an entire house in Japan but can't anywhere in the US right now is not how I wanted to get my daily dose of depression Your plan falls apart if you look at average salaries in Japan. Depending on your job a cross comparison can mean a difference of 30-50%. Japan is better at giving benefits including housing allowances as part of your job but I am not sure I'd really like that.
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Oct 1, 2023 17:52
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bob dobbs is dead posted:rates bein high or low is not good or bad. high fucks over borrowers but is soccour to the lender: low the opposite. are you a lender or borrower? Rates being high is bad when you're particularly concerned about inflation.
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Oct 6, 2023 16:47
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golden bubble posted:It's not that much of an exaggeration to say that only coding workers got raises for basically the entire 2008-2019 era. This is a helluva claim that has a giant <citation Needed> claim. Looking at the Occupational Employment and Wages report from the BLS (2008 and 2019) indicates this isn't true. Food Service Manager: 50k-59k (almost a 20% raise) Insurance Underwriters: 62k-77k (24% increase) Paralegals: 48k-55K (15% increase) Elementary School Teachers: 52k-62K (19%) Registered Nurses: 65-77k (18%) Software developers/programmers went from $77k to $92k, which is only about 20%. Other Programming/Computer related fields ranged from 15% to 25%, but within normal bounds. I'm sure there's outliers, but I just picked middle-class-ish jobs and they all seem to orbit the same range. I think your mixing up the fact that that industry grew quickly and a lot more people landed upper middle-class type jobs during that time, but salaries didn't really outpace. Also a lot of the crazy FAANG salaries were more or less just concentrated to those companies. Not all software jobs paid that. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ocwage_05012009.pdf https://www.bls.gov/oes/2019/may/oes_nat.htm
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Oct 9, 2023 19:33
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They had computer programmer and software developer, applications and I wasn't sure the difference but the salaries were basically the same in 2008, so I used Programmer. The developer path in 2019 combined a bunch of stuff. Paralegal also had a bunch of stuff with it but I cut it down to paralegal. Everything else was a direct comparison, I think. But yeah, depending on how you cut "coder" it could be more but within that 26%.
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Oct 9, 2023 21:51
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