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The thing about rural locations where there is a single choice of grocer is that most people don't live in them, hence corporate megachain profits aren't generated there, because they aren't enough % of revenue.
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Dec 3, 2023 00:21
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I think the general outcome of the latest crisis is we do not understand macroeconomics nearly well enough to make scientific statements of cause and effect, even with the most basic principles. And that monetary policy cannot control nearly as much as economists think it can, without fiscal policy backing it. Raising interest rates hasn't destroyed nearly as much demand as expected because the links between bank central rates and immediate growth are much lower than 1980s.
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Dec 30, 2023 19:43
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Hadlock posted:https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-annualized-revenue-tops-16-billion-information-2023-12-30/ I think LLM's have some economic value, it's just nowhere near the hype it generates. And while they are expensive to train, once one is trained you can bootstrap another off it fairly easily so there's no competitive advantage in the space. So it's not going to lead to uneven windfall profits like Google or Facebook do. They are only expensive to run in comparison to searchs and with a baseline price of "free" - when it comes to enterprise pricing they'll fit fairly well into annual sofrware licensing budgets for specific models which don't leak corporate data back to the cloud, which is one of the major problems with current corporate implementations.
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Dec 31, 2023 19:16
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SVB fails in about 24 hours because social media panic + instant online banking means that companies with deposits there could pull them all out faster than the system expects or regulates for. I assume this is the ECB hoping to spot something similar as it happens.
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Jan 25, 2024 10:38
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The "Markets" have been convincing themselves for the past 2ish months than interest rates will drop to 4% or lower by the end of the year and everything will return to "normal". Quite a few people pointed out this was unrealistically optimistic, and now reality is catching up with the Markets.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:47
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Hadlock posted:Can you cite a single link to support this Here's one Morningstar predicting 6 rate cuts in 2024 There's others if you look, mostly from articles timed around the appearance of this exuberance in December.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:22
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I agree with this. Maybe we have more sector-specific bubbles just due to the proliferation of sectors, but overall I don't think that the idea that bubbles are becoming more frequent or severe seems to be borne out by actual data. On bubbles, there's some evidence that the rise of passive stock investing has increased the duration/durability of bubbles. When every holder of a stock is a active investor, then buying in out of greed, or selling out of panic, can happen to a greater % of shareholders at any one time. When 30% of a stock is held by passive investors who aren't making active pricing decisions, then a rout requires a higher % of the active investors to panic and sell to trigger a rout.
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Mar 10, 2024 10:16
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Inflation rates never match individual consumers, because no individual consumes the exact proportions of the consumption spread. This is fine for their intended use as a tool for central bankers, but means that the "experienced" Inflation rate of someone paying 40% of their income on rent which is raised yearly is often vastly different to a homeowner with a fixed mortgage repayment, even if they "average out" over the entire economy. That's mostly people's bugbear with them, that the number doesn't matched their observed reality, especially when the Inflation number is then used to justify things like pay rises or welfare increases.
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Mar 26, 2024 23:54
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pmchem posted:the measurement of shelter CPI accounts for exactly what you said. it doesn't just go around to homeowners asking what their mortgage payment is. it has two primary components: rent and "owner's equivalent rent" (OER): Yea, but my point is that the "experienced" inflation for both the homeowner and the renter will be different to the reported CPI, even though the reported CPI is "true" (as in, the correct answer to the exact question being asked). Not that owners equivalent rent isn't included. Although is it really based on self-reported survey values? that seems ripe for misreporting, mostly by homeowners not understanding local rental market movements. I thought it was computed centrally based on estimations of it from listings.
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Mar 27, 2024 00:11
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IIRC, it's usually about how to count someone as "actively looking for work" vs "not looking for work" (and therefore not unemployed, as they don't want a job). If you say that people out of work who say they aren't well enough to work, or rather live in their parents basement and sponge off them rather than try and get a job, are actually unemployed. Then you get a higher number of unemployed. How much this actually matters is an exercise to the reader, and usually based on your own views about how much they could be working if [insert political failing here]
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Apr 8, 2024 22:04
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Baddog posted:hah! There's been some articles in the Financial Times about. A. Private equity funds are sitting on something like combined $2 trillion dollars of buying power globally that they raised for cheap during the pandemic, but they can't find anything to buy for the returns they want. B. Private equity firms are also having problems getting new money invested because lots of them are unable to find anywhere to sell the companies they have bought and asset striped at the price they need to make a profit and return profits to investors. Only the funds with a good record of consistently paying out profits are getting new funding in. Which means we're in this absurd state where there's a bunch of money sitting around awaiting causes to invest in, but suddenly unable to find investments paying more than the fed treasury rate. It feels like a bubble that has to pop, or at least deflate, unless rates go back down to 1% or so.
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Apr 10, 2024 19:18
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If there is no economic value to your business than the personal relationship the buyer has with the sales team, then the sales team should capture all the profit by leaving and starting their own firm. Free market in action.
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Apr 24, 2024 18:14
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bob dobbs is dead posted:if you are wondering about why the prc tries to suppress wages, taiwan revolted and stopped being a dictatorship at $5300 income per capita in 1987, about $14000 in todays dollars. korea revolted and stopped being a dictatorship around 1992, fully, around $8200 per capita then, or around 17000 in todays dollars (process started in 1987 for real). the prc is at $14000 ish right now... I would hesitate to link PRC low domestic consumption to any political goals of the PRC, before we go too D&D about this. One element is that the PRC lacks a social safety net (even by American standards), and as such even well-off high-paid workers (like the ~150 Million Chinese people with roughly western incomes) put a much higher % of their income into savings rather than consumption, to provide their own safety net. This was further proven by the COVID epidemic, which China did not compensate workers for at all unlike the EU or US, and eroded plenty of Chinese people's savings and showed them exactly why they must save in boom times. But the core argument is true, which is China is seeking to continue to use manufacturing to drive economic growth, but don't have the domestic demand to support their current manufacturing sector, let alone a growing one. So export the goods instead! Until other countries close off in retailiation. https://www.ft.com/content/4075ac49-f3b6-42a0-88c4-168292048feb https://archive.ph/pyPtS#selection-2363.42-2363.231 Nothingtoseehere fucked around with this message at 20:03 on May 14, 2024 |
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May 14, 2024 19:54
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Baddog posted:mmmm, going house hunting over there was an experience, not doing that again soon. And the leasehold-type arrangement doesn't inspire confidence, even though everyone seems 100% that it will just be renewed. You don't actually own any share of the land, just a small concrete box in the sky. Part of the issue is just China Big. It's 1500 million people, compared to the USs 350 million people. You can have 150 Million Chinese people taking part in a first-world economy leading the way in a bunch of fields (which is roughly what is happening) and still have a pretty bad overall economy because of the drag of the other 9/10ths of the country not being as productive or having jobs building pointless buildings which then fail. China is trying to expand the amount of people employed doing "productive" labour like building EVs, and limiting growth of "unproductive" labour like online tutoring cram schools or gacha games getting kids addicted to gambling or building unproductive houses. Problem is as already established the chinese household doesn't consume enough for this, so exports it is. I would say that agricultural subsidies can absolutely lead to overseas dumping in the same way that EV subsidies are doing now, it's something African countries have been annoyed about for awhile - cheaper to import US grain than buy local, hence limits investment in local agriculture and building of local capital stocks. The difference is that they mostly suck it up anyways, because they have no influence and also the alternative is more expensive food, which looses you popular support pretty quick.
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May 16, 2024 05:50
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bob dobbs is dead posted:they dont want to inflate to pay anything off. tiananmen was like 15% about freedom and liberty and poo poo and 85% about the 30%, 60%, 100% inflation. thats why shutting it down by promising then delivering on not highly inflationary economic growth worked so well, after rolling over the freedom peeps w tanks China is currently on the edge of inflation, a bit more inflation would not be a bad thing
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May 20, 2024 22:23
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