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That said, prime age (25-55 years old) labor force participation is back at 2019 levels. In fact, labor force participation for 55-65 year olds is also back to 2019 levels. The decrease in total labor force participation is entirely due to the very old (65+) and the very young (16-24). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
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Apr 14, 2023 16:38
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LanceHunter posted:There’s a very compelling piece in The Atlantic by Jean M. Twenge, called The Myth of the Broke Millennial (Apple News link to get around paywall.) It's a pity he doesn't emphasis the obvious reason for the disconnect. quote:Two groups have not outpaced the generations that came before: men and people with less education. Millennial men, on average, have not seen the income increases that Millennial women have (more on that later)—a divergence at least partly explained by the growing gap in educational attainment between men and women. And overall, the median income of Americans with a four-year college degree has steadily risen while the income of those with only a high-school degree has fallen. This trend is not new, though it is troubling. quote:Men’s incomes, however, have fallen since 1970 (though not nearly as much as women’s have risen). The statistics aren’t uniform: Men on the higher rungs of the economic ladder have for the most part bucked this trend, and Millennial men’s incomes have rebounded from their Great Recession lows. But that may be cold comfort to men making less than their fathers did, especially those who don’t live (and share expenses) with women—even though men still make more than women on average. Think about how many news articles there are about understanding the "real American." It doesn't matter there's less of them proportionally than there have ever been before. So much of the media still thinks they matter more than other americans. And if a writer fervently believes the average american millennial is a white man with moderate education, that really changes the reporting on millennial economics. golden bubble fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Apr 18, 2023 |
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Apr 18, 2023 20:34
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To add onto that, even though the average millennial matches the boomers for homeownership rates by age, it's not evenly spread. https://twitter.com/ArmandDoma/status/1648368209610035200 For the boomers, I think their yuppies were the most likely to get on the homeownership ladder, and yuppies do a disproportionate amount of writing. Meanwhile, the yuppie millennials I've met are generally more bitter about housing prices and more angry about housing policy than less well millennials. Especially since LA has overtaken Chicago as the second most culturally important city in the US.
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Apr 18, 2023 22:42
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:my mother has complaints about the unreasonable cost and limited availability of daycare when i was a kid decades ago, so it seems like a super entrenched problem The Federal statistics calculates rent based on all rental leases. The private statistics almost all use new rental lease agreements only. This means the fed's stats include a lot of renters who haven't updated their lease in many months, during which the new lease rate might have changed greatly. As a result, the federal numbers on shelter costs* will always lag behind the industry numbers. * CPI doesn't use mortgage payments values for homeowners. It uses owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence, so even homeowner CPI is based on rental data.
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May 12, 2023 16:39
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https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.htm Owners’ equivalent rent of residences is mostly based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey where they ask homeowners how much they would rent their house for, but there's more math and a few other things going in to smooth their estimates. The deeper you go into how they actually calculate the inflation number, the more you realize they rely on proxies, approximations, and imputed math to try to make an impossible task into a vaguely possible one.
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May 12, 2023 19:43
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My understanding is the new US fighter jet development program isn't a F-35 replacement. Rather, the NGAD is supposed to be an upgraded F-22 that will have a big enough production run that the US can finally, finally retire every single F-15 and F-16 in the military. The F-22 was supposed to completely replace the F-15 and F-16, but they only built 187 F-22s ever for budget reasons.
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Jun 20, 2023 23:28
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Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:NAR implies single family homes, although they don't outright say so. Although that data is from 2020, you can really see how location is a big issue. The high vacancy states are giant empty rural states and Florida. And if they could break down the data further below state-level resolution, we'd see that almost all those vacant homes are in places with very few good jobs, mostly the middle of nowhere towns. So while there are enough housing units in the US for everyone, there aren't enough housing units in the US in places worth living in*. And that's just from 2020, before the massive spike in home prices and rent prices of 2021-today. * good job markets, good infrastructure, things worth doing nearby
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Jul 27, 2023 18:43
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Baddog posted:I feel like there has been a ton of growth in the top end of income, and in certain localities a fair amount on the bottom. But man, it seems like the bog standard analyst (or whatever the equivalent is in your profession) has been around 70-100K for the past 20 years. I don't know how to pull the data for that though. It's not that much of an exaggeration to say that only coding workers got raises for basically the entire 2008-2019 era. During that entire decade, coders saw incomes rise so much and coding jobs became so much more widespread that the averages did increase despite almost everyone else getting nothing. That's why the recent economic conditions have been so hopeful for groups like employ america. Only recently have we seen non-coders have both wage increases at their job and, this is the more important part, real opportunities to move up to a better position or move sideways to a better industry. Even when there were mass layoffs at FAANGs in 2022, we still saw tight labor markets in many non-computer toucher industries. We've finally seen a few years where non-computer touchers have actual wage gains.
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Oct 9, 2023 18:32
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That's fair, I need to dig deeper into those numbers myself. But as for BRICS  The dollar still is king. The real question is if the Euro will get dethroned as the number two.
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Oct 9, 2023 19:57
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https://www.ft.com/content/62b70a23-ed5b-4cb2-b760-76aa9cc31180quote:EU finance ministers have bowed to German pressure for tough debt-reduction rules, as part of a deal to phase in a sweeping overhaul of the union’s budget framework. This is why there was so much furor in the EU over both bidennomics and the worries that the EU is falling behind the US. Europe seems completely unable to escape austerity. With the seeming success of big fiscal policy in the US to achieve the golden path of a soft landing, the european inability to do proper fiscal policy seems like a massive handicap in the modern global economy.
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Dec 20, 2023 20:02
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And yet, US oil imports have been on a steady decline. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M Fracking and other new technologies developed in the 00s and 2010s have increased US oil production so much that the US is producing more oil per year than any one country has does so before, ever. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M
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Dec 31, 2023 01:42
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This is what they mean by "Core inflation". It assumes that food and fuel prices are to variable to be measured on a month by month basis, and calculates inflation off of everything else. Transportation services covers everything from car maintenance to plane tickets to used car prices to taxi fares to subway fees.
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Mar 12, 2024 17:52
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Going back to the telework discussion, a big part of it is the local commuting and housing market. If your commute is shorter and more comfortable but your house is smaller, coming to the office doesn't sound so bad compared to squeezing in new office into your living quarters. If you commute straight into rush hour gridlock hell in a car, but live in a relatively larger house, work from home is a no brainer. This is why there's already clear gaps in telework between the US and much of the EU. I'd happily come to the office every day if biking in to work was reasonable.
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Apr 10, 2024 00:33
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Agronox posted:However, this is probably the first economic expansion in my life where income gains are accruing more to the lower-wage workers than the higher: A huge part of this is that a massive of the increase in income in the bottom 50% is not promotions or salary increases in the same position but people leaving behind poo poo companies for less lovely companies. It's well documented that when people switch companies for a better job, they give themselves all the credit rather admit that tight labor markets (a good thing) made it possible. So you have a lot of lower class and middle class workers who are making more than a few years ago even after adjusting for inflation who believe all their gains are due to personal virtue and all the bad things happening are due to the Economy (tm).
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Apr 24, 2024 18:28
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Hadlock posted:China national government to begin purchasing houses directly in wake of evergrande housing pyramid debacle, to the absolute complete surprise of nobody Oh, it's better than that quote:On Friday, authorities from across China dialed in to a video conference to discuss the challenges they faced. China’s vice premier, He Lifeng, announced a major shift in the government’s approach to dealing with the property crunch, which has prompted households to cut spending. Mr. He said local governments could begin to buy homes to start dealing with the huge numbers of empty apartments. https://www.reuters.com/world/china...t%20at%2021%25. quote:Beijing is concerned about potential default due to the local governments' large debts and weaker growth prospects, the sources said. China's local government debt hit 76% of gross domestic product in 2022, the latest data available, up from 62% in 2019 and dwarfing central government debt at 21%. Xi is going to have local governments eat the costs for all of this, and many local governments in China are already buckling under their debt loads. Remember these are local governments, they can't print more RMB to cover their obligations, only Beijing can do that. And if Beijing was willing to print RMB to help out with this, they would been buying apartments themselves instead of forcing the local branches to do it instead. Xi is going to leave the city and province governments out to dry.
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May 20, 2024 21:53
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