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Placeholder OP BFC already has a daily discussion thread although it's not often used.  pmchem posted:do you guys think BFC should have a new megathread just for general "Global economics and related current events" discussion? drk posted:Yes to current events megathread, there's a lot of stuff that doesnt really fit into current threads. Leperflesh posted:it'd be just as doomsy, but with more charts and graphs. also I think it'd be a business & finance thread without the careers part Strong Sauce posted:i would prefer a similar thread here that is a little less doomsy  rules: 1. no tweets, invokes doomscrolling 2. keep it BFC, other forums have their own threads 3. no doomerism, within reason 4. if you MUST post a relevant tweet 4. a. you must provide a supporting link (archive.is ad-free links encouraged) 4. b. you must provide two supporting graphs (via imgur or similar) as penance 5. No tiktoks either It's vastly preferable to link to an article that mentions the tweet or tiktoks Edit: added tiktok to the threadban as well Hadlock fucked around with this message at 22:40 on May 15, 2024 |
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Mar 17, 2023 04:54
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first reply so nobody is shy about postingdrk posted:Mods: where's our promised current events thread
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Mar 17, 2023 05:04
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I like how the thread title is "anti-doomsday no tweet" and then you quoted a post from the doomsday thread with a tweet in it edit: and failed to post the supporting youtube link, and no graphs quote:4. if you MUST post a relevant tweet double edit: i'll do it for you https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVTmS4mM5zk&t=5718s Hadlock fucked around with this message at 08:22 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 08:19
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At the beginning of the new stock trading thread we wrote down some "memoriam"s which is already kind of interesting to review Here are a few for this thread. I guess the context missing from the OP is that SVIB (silicon valley bank) imploded on march 10 (one week from this post) there's already a wikipedia article about it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_Silicon_Valley_Bank. Silicon valley bank being a significant pipe for VC money to flow through in california. Also Silvergate bank failed, a more conservative bank. Both of these followed the collapse of Signature Bank which was a crypto bank and wasn't a massive surprise compared to the other two. As of this writing First Republic Bank was struggling but seeming like they will likely not collapse in the immediate future but might be the next domino to fall. As I write this bitcoin is $27,000 although for most of 2023 it's been trading at $20k - $24k regular gas is $3.45/gal diesel is $4.25/gal milk is still $4.41 which is suspiciously exactly how much it was in November 2022 30 year mortgage is 6% although beginning of last week it was closer to 7% before capital started to look for other places to move their money besides banks Gold has "spiked" recently to $1988 after fluctuating around $1850
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Mar 18, 2023 03:19
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broad question it's been proven that inflation can cause bank failures via treasury bonds. is there any correlation with bank failures causing inflation? for example, if we had another S&L crisis and liquidity was impacted it might somehow drive up inflation, possibly due to making generating goods and services very expensive
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Mar 21, 2023 03:28
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So hypothetically if you were buying a house this month, would you choose to rate lock today at 6.25% or wait and see what the fed does tomorrow
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Mar 21, 2023 21:17
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Lockback posted:Rate Lock. I also wouldn't touch any variable interest rate poo poo. Just refinance when we inevitably and rashly crash interest rates again. In this hypothetical situation due to short term cash flow the loan profile would need to be variable, either a 5/1 or 7/1 Seems like thread consensus is that a refinance in 5 years would yield a lower rate
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Mar 21, 2023 21:50
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Hypothetically a 5/1 arm is 6.50 and 7/1 is 6.35, whereas 30 year is 6.675, the spread on total monthly payment is about 4.7%
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Mar 22, 2023 01:14
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Yeah my wife is a lot less risk tolerant than I am, especially in $house dollars. This is not a Fintech despac #yolo play We hypothetically locked in the hypothetical 30 year fixed with the 1 point buy down (6.6xx%)
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Mar 22, 2023 03:25
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NYT and WSJ both putting out hit pieces on the commercial real estate industry today. I thought we were all in agreement to not talk out loud about commercial real estate in the wake of WFH nyt posted:The universe of commercial real estate includes loans for new construction, mortgages and loans specifically for managing multifamily apartment complexes. The so-called securitized products containing loans that banks make are called commercial mortgage-backed securities — a more than $72 billion market last year. But it’s a different story in 2023, with issuance of those bonds down 78 percent from a year ago. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/business/svb-signature-commercial-real-estate.html I can't find the WSJ link right now but theirs was saying SF rent prices are down 30% which is near if not at the top of the list of most precarious markets post covid
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Mar 22, 2023 17:18
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ultrafilter posted:The official death statistics for Covid are a pretty serious undercount everywhere, Yeah googling "excess deaths 2022" (arguably the only good way to gauge this, since all other communicable disease fell off a cliff 20-21 and arguably 22) yields all sorts of wild numbers European Commission released a report not long ago, TL;DR edition Dec 2020 deaths vs Dec 2019... +30% Dec 2021 vs Dec 2019 ...+24% Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019... +19% https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/DDN-20230217-1 "covid is over"  I haven't looked at H1B/E6/other highly qualified immigrant immigration statistics recently but I know Trump garrotted H1B a couple years ago + we dug a big skilled immigrant labor hole in 2020-21 and probably still way behind where we should have been Edit: map; percentage difference between the cumulative number of deaths since 1 January 2020 and the cumulative projected deaths for the same period based on previous years  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline Hadlock fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 19:03
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Goldman predicting a 5-20% drop in home prices over the next 12 months https://fortune.com/2023/03/24/these-global-housing-markets-further-slide-goldman-sachs-home-price-correction/ To the complete surprise of nobody, Goldman posted:“Housing market tightness—as measured by the scant supply of homes available for sale—is having a large influence in many markets and should limit the downside of house prices to some extent,” wrote Goldman researchers. The house we're in contact on, listed in June 2022 for 15% above the current asking/closing price, and maybe could have gone lower if we were more aggressive Hadlock fucked around with this message at 09:26 on Mar 25, 2023 |
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Mar 25, 2023 09:22
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I'm reasonably sure our offer got accepted because it had been snowing, then flooding, and near hurricane force winds, then more flooding. The house was on the market for a whole ten days and we had no competing offer. When our agent did a video walkthrough I saw a tarp covering some lawn chairs in the backyard fly off and go over the fence. https://www.sfchronicle.com/realestate/article/bay-area-home-prices-17850577.php  chronicle posted:The typical mortgage payment in the Bay Area increased by 31% over the past year, largely due to mortgage rates nearly doubling, Divounguy added. That put home buying out of reach for many. However, a decrease in the number of homes coming on the market helped offset price declines resulting from cooling demand. We should probably tighten this up a tiny bit and tie real estate sales back to the larger economic picture edit: socketsite has great info on the sf bay area real estate market, definitely a pro-click, even if they are a bit full of themselves  https://socketsite.com/archives/2023/03/index-for-bay-area-homes-has-dropped-17-trending-down.html Hadlock fucked around with this message at 14:15 on Mar 29, 2023 |
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Mar 29, 2023 14:07
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I've only been on one flight in the last 9 months that wasn't completely full, and gate agents all seem to hate their jobs now
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Apr 8, 2023 16:16
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 https://www.axios.com/2023/04/11/office-space-available-rent-hits-new-record-high We haven't even hit the "recession" part of the story yet. So far we've done a really good job of ignoring the commercial real estate market but it doesn't seem unlikely we'll see 20% before this is all over I'll have to go dig for it, but just last week a developer signed over the deed to a corner lot property in SF with an approved 300' tower on it As I'm typing this I'm actually sitting in a wells Fargo waiting for an appointment with a banker because they don't staff them on site any more. The bank takes up half the ground floor of this building and there's like 8 bankers offices no longer occupied CBDs will always be needed for stuff like the courts and city hall meetings but I don't see them growing in the next 20 years. I'm not sure how you revalue such an enormous asset class without upending the entire economy or driving inflation even higher
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Apr 13, 2023 15:05
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Is commercial office space not used as assets banks hold to back their loans Yeah any commercial space is technically viable as residential space, but you need to convert it which has planning and zoning risks, as well as general (permanent?) downturn in commercial space usage leading to devaluation of the properties We mostly"fixed" banks being underwater on Treasury bonds by changing the valuation rules, but commercial real estate isn't very tightly tied to government regulation I don't think you can pull that trick again
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Apr 13, 2023 20:05
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I'm not a plumber but it's my understanding that in modern drop ceiling offices, this isn't a huge issue. Keeping a similar floorplan between floors probably reduces engineering and planning work considerably. It's probably a lot of holes to drill though. I think the drains etc are adequate already and if not you can retrofit larger diameter in the main wet wall
Hadlock fucked around with this message at 02:37 on Apr 14, 2023 |
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Apr 14, 2023 02:31
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I can't find the exact definition but generally mild recession is less than 1% contraction of annual GDP. So basically what's been going on the last six months or so
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Apr 14, 2023 07:02
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1 in 600
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Apr 18, 2023 05:59
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From the blindingly obvious files, real estate market still all hosed up Inventory and sales pretty much however you slice it is down ~20% from last year. Sale price since beginning of the year is up 0.1% YOY which is about flat with the end of 2021  I like this graph for some reason  https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-home-prices-fall/ I'm extremely skeptical of any housing price crash, anyone in distress is going to take out a home equity loan on their historically low refinanced home long before walking away from it I keep seeing articles like "new SFH starts up 2.5%" but also, 2.5% of almost zero is still almost zero. Nothingburger of an article not worth reading: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-increase-march-2023-04-18/ Any guesses as to where mortgage rates will be in two years? My guess is that jpow and friends stop increasing rates but also leave them at current values for another 4-6 months, and we see mortgage rates in the 5.25-6.5% range through at least the end of 2025
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Apr 18, 2023 17:47
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Cyrano4747 posted:My rear end in a top hat on the internet opinion is that 4% is going to be a pretty sturdy floor for a long time barring drastic measures due to a crisis. Strong agree, I'll go even further and say short of another black swan event I'd be surprised if we see below 4.25% in the next 15 years I would be very happy to refi our 6.25 somewhere south of 5.25, getting into the 4s would be an excellent gift
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Apr 18, 2023 18:36
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De-dollarization. Feel like I see a new article on the topic almost every day now. Two years ago, you might see something once a quarter. https://www.aier.org/article/de-dollarization-has-begun/ https://www.aier.org/article/de-dollarization-has-begun-redux/ https://archive.is/2023.04.17-122140/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/17/bangladesh-russia-yuan-china-loan/ https://www.firstpost.com/world/de-...s-12485702.html I forget where but read on social media the other day, the real reason why we invaded Iraq is they were selling oil to [X] in [Y currency] which at the time felt like a real edgelord take but, uh
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Apr 22, 2023 15:58
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Oh right X was Germany and Y was the euro. I think it was in the same breath as "Biden blew up nordstream"
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Apr 22, 2023 16:27
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Oh, so I just looked at the wiki page for the nonprofit that published the first two articles I linked. They are a conservative think tank. I just assumed "American institute for economic research" was an arm of an economics peer reviewed journal. The opposite really https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_for_Economic_Research
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Apr 22, 2023 21:33
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Seems like the goal was to prevent FRB from going under to slow or stop additional bank runs and they succeeded at that task. Whether or not shareholder value was preserved is probably not even in the top three desired outcomes here. Their existence at this point is simply a means to an end. Zombie bank indeed.
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Apr 25, 2023 23:24
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SA-Anon posted:I see the USD and Euro continuing to hold the lions share for the foreseeable future.  Can you qualify this, or help us understand your thinking better I seem to recall Australia getting bitchy when we did/did not share submarine secrets with them/not them/France. And I guess Boeing is building their "ghost bat" fighter drone... thing, in Australia, but I don't see Australia exporting just a whole lot besides uranium and maybe coal? The likelihood of AUD becoming a global currency seems about as likely as the Israeli Shekel, at least from my very limited viewpoint
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Apr 26, 2023 05:58
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The Lira is a great currency if you have a 30 year fixed rate mortgage ABITRE - Always be investing in Turkish real estate
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Apr 26, 2023 16:15
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A possible reserve currency alternative might be the Japanese yen. I would pick the Brazilian real ahead of AUD, or poo poo, the dreaded ruble, Russia is at least actually a net global mineral and oil exporter as much as I dislike their global politics
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Apr 26, 2023 18:23
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Most countries hold at least a couple billion dollars each in various currencies for various reasons. It was a Really Big Deal in 2020-2021 when Japan liquidated something like half a trillion dollars (2/3 of their Brazilian real reserves? I forget). My guess is 1) diversify diversify diversify 2) helps stabilize currency values among the top ~25 economies, instills confidence in those economies etc 3) probably smooths over various international things if/when poo poo gets real 4) distant 4th deincentivizes conflict with those countries as your investment will probably lose value. A big deal if you have a trillion dollars in their currency and it loses half it's value
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Apr 26, 2023 18:45
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No Twitter posts please, can you just edit your post and link to the article directly
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Apr 28, 2023 02:02
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Are we going to end up with a situation where the Fed opens up a new bank backed by the Fed, they then buy all mortgages under 4.5%, let it go under or simply liquidate it and the mortgages they're holding are then sold back to the banking sector at fire sale rates so the debt is profitable again? QE by way of giving low interest rate mortgages a haircut in valuation and letting the Fed swallow the loss and tossing it on the bonfire of Fed balance sheet? And/or just setup a mechanism where the Fed will buy back any mortgage at less than 4.5% for the October 2022 value and write it as part of their balance sheet Lending money at 2%-3.5% and then jacking rates up to 8% to match inflation, I don't know how else you handle that besides just forgiving the debt but forgiving debt, suddenly everyone has an extra $600-2500 in their pocket each month that would just throw fuel on the inflation fire Hadlock fucked around with this message at 08:08 on May 1, 2023 |
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May 1, 2023 08:03
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the interest rate risk will always be there as long as we keep our current system where banks borrow short to lend long. completely eliminating that risk seems like it would need a system in which short term deposits and long term debt are kept completely separate. This would involve a complete rethinking and rewrite of the modern global banking system where private business was entirely funded by something looking a lot like VC. Seems unlikely. I would like to see a home mortgage system like the UK and Netherlands where first time owners get a 0 or 1% down mortgage with low or negative interest rates backed directly by the government though. Not sure if banks are involved in mortgages there or how that works but that sure seems like it would make home ownership more accessible. I wasn't able to buy a house in my 20s because home values grew faster than I could save the required 20% for one (08-09 didn't help any, either)
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May 1, 2023 22:18
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LanceHunter posted:seizure and sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan Chase Narrowly avoided further run on banks this weekend/week Hopefully(?) this sweeps the mortgage interest rate losses under the rug and OH LOOK A BLIMP
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May 3, 2023 21:51
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I said, OH LOOK, A BLIMP
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May 3, 2023 23:32
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Good news everybody, housing is back, for the handful of distressed sales still happening anywaysquote:93 major housing markets saw home price gains in March while 7 declined https://fortune.com/2023/05/03/housing-markets-where-home-prices-rose-and-fell-in-march-according-to-black-knight/ 
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May 4, 2023 06:35
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Wasn't paywalled last night, try archive.is
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May 4, 2023 21:09
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hobbez posted:There's just no inventory. This is the key here, and what I was going for The numbers don't mean much when total sales per month are in the tens in each local market It is interesting that it's an almost universal trend country-wide though
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May 4, 2023 21:12
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pmchem posted:looking forward to listening. that particular labor market has been totally broken since the pandemic (even worse than before pandemic). I know of local childcares that have been actively trying to hire, money available to do it, but unable to reach anywhere near fully staffed for literally 2 years straight now We briefly relocated to a city of 100k and hired a In our new town we lucked out and three spots opened up a week before, is a 3 minute drive and next to the neighborhood market, thank God
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May 5, 2023 04:47
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LanceHunter posted:I feel like we need some new term to describe a kind of anti-stagflation. In the same way that term was coined to try and capture the seemingly-paradoxical economic state of a slow economy with high inflation, we need something to capture this state of the economy running super-hot in terms of full (or near-full) employment and rising wages that isn't getting knocked back by rising interest rates. The "radiator economy?" The "1% of the workforce unexpectedly died of covid and nobody wants to acknowledge that" effect?
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May 5, 2023 18:39
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Pretty bold statement https://archive.is/2023.05.05-16070...finance-1b6eb3e Office building price may drop up to 50% quote:PGIM expects property prices to drop in a range of 7.5%-50% in this cycle (see chart), with office properties likely facing the most downside risk. 
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May 5, 2023 19:20
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