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Also in the news today: Cash pours into US money market funds as investors flee bank turmoilFT posted:Investors have funnelled cash to US money market funds over the past week amid concerns over the safety of some bank deposits after the collapse of two large lenders. 
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Mar 17, 2023 05:10
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pmchem posted:I predict the fed does 25 bps next week and that's the last rate hike for 2023. For what its worth, thats what futures markets are predicting too. +25bp next week, holding through the May meeting, then cuts starting at the Jun meeting, ending the year at a 375-400 bp fed funds rate. Big big change from a week ago, which saw rates peaking above 5% and staying there until the December meeting. Personally I think cuts in 3 months isnt going happen absent inflation disappearing in Mar/Apr/May and/or more medium sized bank failures. The fed has been pretty clear they dont want to declare premature victory over inflation, so pausing for just a single meeting seems optimistic.
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Mar 17, 2023 17:26
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Leperflesh posted:The FDIC's rates should not just be a blind fixed amount per dollar deposited; if your balance sheet shows you have a huge unhedged interest rate risk, the FDIC should jack up your loving insurance rates. FDIC rates are already tiered by risk: https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/assessments/proposed.html Its not clear that this actually is effective in getting banks to take less risk, but its there.
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Mar 17, 2023 18:28
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UBS is "examining" a takeover of CS, as reported by Reuters (originally reported at FT which is paywalled). Possibly as soon as today
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Mar 18, 2023 16:49
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FT reporting the deal for UBS to acquire CS is finalquote:UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse after increasing its offer to more than $2bn, with Swiss authorities poised to change the country’s laws to bypass a shareholder vote as they rush to announce a deal before Monday. You can imagine shareholders are not pleased at the country literally changing the law to bypass their approval, and losing ~70% of what little value their equity had left (though, better than losing 100%).
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Mar 19, 2023 18:33
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LostCosmonaut posted:Aren't the Saudis a pretty big shareholder in CS? I'm sure they're thrilled. (but on the other hand, gently caress the house of saud) From the same FT article: quote:The deal with UBS comes just months after the Saudi National Bank and the Qatar Investment Authority injected close to SFr3bn into Credit Suisse as part of a SFr4bn capital raise. They are the bank’s two largest shareholders and jointly own 17 per cent of the stock.
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Mar 19, 2023 19:31
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Long term fixed rate mortgages and the ability to refinance without penalty are pretty much the only good things about the US property market Dont get an ARM
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Mar 22, 2023 01:23
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Leperflesh posted:Regardless, in addition to covid deaths there's a far larger number of people who have or had long-term health effects from lingering covid that didn't die and many of them have had to leave the workforce. This does not get much press. Employment level is at an all time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV Obviously population growth is the largest long term driver of this, but there are clearly *more* people working now than pre-pandemic.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:40
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hobbez posted:Paywall'd... Wow, they weren't kidding about low vacancy rates:  Anyone know what the large increase in vacancy rates was in the years leading up to 2008? People buying homes as investments and leaving them empty?
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Mar 27, 2023 18:05
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pmchem posted:sorry guys we killed the banks my bad Oof, chartcrime They are making $18.00B -> $17.68B look like a lot more than it is This chart is better:  Some of that is definitely money moving from deposit account to money markets / treasuries / etc, but it is also people spending excess savings from the covid era. Deposit levels are still *way* above where they were in 2019.
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Mar 27, 2023 21:56
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more house price chat as someone who lives in the red zone, its still wildly unaffordable
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Mar 27, 2023 23:40
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Warmachine posted:I'm guessing there's significant seasonality to home sales because people don't want to do all the moving-related chores in sweltering heat or biting cold? There is seasonal fluctuation in home sales in the Bay Area but not because we have weather. A cold day is in the 50s and it hasn't snowed here in half a century.
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Mar 28, 2023 01:09
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2023 air travel outpacing 2019
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Apr 7, 2023 01:14
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LanceHunter posted:There’s a very compelling piece in The Atlantic by Jean M. Twenge, called The Myth of the Broke Millennial (Apple News link to get around paywall.) Isnt that what you'd expect though? Roughly speaking, millennials are currently 30-40 years old, solidly into adulthood. Ten years ago, they would have been 20-30 years old - many still in school, or early in their careers. As someone who is currently 40 and doing reasonably well economically, I can tell you 30 was much different. When I was 30 I had a net worth of approximately zero (an improvement from most of my 20s).
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Apr 18, 2023 20:28
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Weird, I came here to post the DXY chart only to see they already have it in their article. So, USD's value is close to its 20 year high and the conclusion is "actually, its over for the dollar"?
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Apr 22, 2023 18:44
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I thought of the Yen too, as the third largest economy. At Japan's economic peak in the 1980s, did anyone use it as a reserve currency?
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Apr 26, 2023 18:34
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hypnophant posted:it’s not obvious what SVB could have done differently once interest rates started climbing and a big chunk of their asset book was suddenly underwater. As rates rose in 2022, SVB actually reduced their hedging, increasing the effective duration of their portfolio. This was effectively doubling down on a bet that interest rates would quickly return to lower levels. They could've done... not that FT posted:And at the end of 2021, SVB’s financial accounts indicate that on the AfS side it held $15.26bn of interest rate swaps to hedge against the impact of rising rates on its big bond portfolio. So what happened?
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May 3, 2023 16:31
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Bremen posted:Is that changing? I'm just googling but it looks like seasonally adjusted wage growth for the 3 months December 22-March 23 was 1.2%. It looks like CPI increase for those three months was... 1.1% Well, okay, so they're basically tied at this point, but at least inflation is no longer clearly outpacing wage growth. Long term real wage growth is pretty slow, though (eyeballing the below chart, <1% a year). I'm fairly skeptical that this time is different for some reason. 
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May 5, 2023 18:13
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The big table o' inflation is below. Eveyone's got a hot take on inflation numbers, but it appears to me that the primary driver of services inflation is increases in shelter costs (rent and owner equivalent rent). Transportation services has a higher %age increase, but a much lower weight.
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May 10, 2023 16:10
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lol, are they really complaining that some non-binding comments from the fed failed to predict the future with 100% accuracy? reminds me of this chart (and its many variations): 
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May 15, 2023 23:46
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its possible the extent of their risk management was consulting fed dot plots, like this one from 2021: as we all know, that's not what happened, but SVB seems to be making the argument that projections like the above were more or less a promise from the fed to have a certain monetary policy
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May 16, 2023 02:23
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Utah makes sense as number 1 as they have the highest birth rate of any US state. Not sure about Colorado and Idaho, though if you asked people there, I imagine they would tell you its due to rich people moving in from California.
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May 17, 2023 17:33
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I doubt (international) migration is a significant driver of new house sizes though. Utah, as usual, is best just explained as "mormons": the state has the number one birth rate and number one household size of all of the states.
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May 17, 2023 18:12
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pmchem posted:fed's gotta hike quote:Andres Traslavania, head of executive search at Whole Foods Inc., bragged that his offices not only allow pets but instituted Furry Fridays 
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May 19, 2023 23:46
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According to FT, Germany's post-covid recovery has been pretty weak:
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May 25, 2023 15:38
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Hadlock posted:I'm not sure how long it's supposed to take to spin up a commercial airliner industry, but given that pretty much only Airbus/EU are the only other people to do so would imply it's a difficult task Tupelov built a number of commercial airliners, including the first commercial supersonic aircraft, the horrifying Tu-144: wikipeida posted:Tu-144 pilot Aleksandr Larin remembers a troublesome flight around 25 January 1978. The flight with passengers suffered the failure of 22 to 24 onboard systems. Seven to eight systems failed before takeoff, but given the large number of foreign TV and radio journalists and also other foreign notables aboard the flight, it was decided to proceed with the flight to avoid the embarrassment of cancellation.
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May 28, 2023 19:50
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pseudanonymous posted:Giving the IRS funding to go after rich people is massively revenue positive. Like giving the IRS $1 means they collect like $9 in otherwise lost tax revenue. Defunding the IRS fairly directly increases the deficit for this reason, which is how you know anyone advocating for it is unserious about reducing government debt.
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May 29, 2023 19:04
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Anecdotal, but I stayed in a Hilton in SF a few months ago and it was dirt cheap. Around $130 including taxes and fees for a Friday night. Occupancy must be way, way down.
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Jun 6, 2023 02:50
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Leperflesh posted:I think retail's been under a harsh headwind for 25 years now, and amazon's share of the entire retail market is sobering. This is true, though I've seen a lot of new retail shifting to be less places to buy stuff and more places to eat / drink / do things. Obviously that doesnt work everywhere, rural Alabama isnt getting any $23 salad places or natural wine bars.
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Jun 9, 2023 00:05
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Femtosecond posted:SF can fix both their economy and poverty problems by just going to their zoning bylaws and ripping them up and letting people build gently caress tons of new apartments but they won't. i hope they build this high rise across form the zoo that was proposed a few months ago 
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Jun 14, 2023 04:01
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Interest rates in Turkey are also much much higher than the US. If I read their central bank page right, overnight lending rates are currently 10% and have been as high as 60+% in the past 20 years. Even if they did get a fixed rate mortgage, it would be rough
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Jun 14, 2023 21:07
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Hadlock posted:But yeah russia has seen pretty significant population decline, roughly offset by a mostly open door immigration policy to fill empty seats in factories etc + emmigration to warmer/better climates Eh, Russia's population is more or less the same as it was at the dissolution of the Soviet Union. But, the rest of the world kept growing, so as a percentage of world population Russia has really fallen quite a bit. edit: graph for reference 
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Jul 12, 2023 02:53
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bob dobbs is dead posted:the us also doesnt have the capability, its tsmc and samsung Eh, Intel isnt that far behind TSMC/Samsung. Maybe a year or two. Micron, Global Foundries, and Texas Instruments are all manufacturing in the US with modern-ish fab capabilities as well
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Jul 18, 2023 05:23
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Cyrano4747 posted:There's also ARM in the UK, although IIRC they got taken to the loving cleaners by the Chinse basically hijacking one of their factories in China and turning it into Totally-Not-ARM Yes, the former chairman/CEO stole their company seal which basically gave him full legal powers I was watching Spirited Away last night, and realized it has basically the same plot line  (unclear if the ARM seal had a Frog on top)
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Jul 18, 2023 17:59
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pmchem posted:why is argentina at like 100% yoy inflation? among other things, the currency is doing... not well 
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Aug 8, 2023 01:05
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Baddog posted:I remember having a discussion with someone about 18 months ago where "8% mortgages would break everything!" was discussed. But we're almost there now, and attitudes have all been adjusted. Almost there for marginal rates, but the average mortgage rate paid is still very very low: 
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Aug 28, 2023 18:40
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My point was its difficult for "8% mortgages" to break everything when so few people are paying that much.
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Aug 28, 2023 19:13
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Eh, that Microsoft is going to nuclear isnt much of a story On the surface: "gosh our AI is so good and popular that we will have to build our own nuclear reactors just to keep up with demand!" Under the surface: its just a press release saying that Microsoft has agreed to buy output from a 50MW reactor that does not exist, but maybe will in "about 5 years". Even if it is built, it is a tiny amount of power compared to Microsoft's datacenter footprint. And it will certainly be orders of magnitude more expensive than solar+batteries, or other zero carbon energy that could be built today.
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Oct 2, 2023 20:00
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Leperflesh posted:How on earth is the average software developer salary so low in those reports? Entry level positions are like $100k+. My brother took a year of classes, learned elixir, and after one year of work he's making $120k. He lives in Oklahoma. The last time I looked into this, the averages are brought down quite a bit by software developers working for federal/state/local governments.
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Oct 10, 2023 17:04
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its a weird modelbb posted:While the chance of a recession within 12 months has reached 100% under the model, the odds of a recession hitting sooner are also up. The model forecasts the likelihood of a recession within 11 months at 73%, up from 30%, and the 10-month probability rose to 25% from 0%. like, it seemed to be predicting an extremely high chance of a recession in a fairly narrow 2 month window?
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Oct 21, 2023 01:43
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