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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Ershalim posted:

Probably going to regret asking this, but what exactly are the people saying we spend too little on border security complaining about? Do they want more camps, or more murders at the border, or some other thing that isn't occurring to me? I assume the question reads as border security [from Mexico], but is there another angle to it? Like, are people buying into copaganda that fentanyl from China is giving them Super Havana Syndrome or something?

They saw a brown person speaking Spanish therefore the border is too porous.

Most people don't have an actual clue on how government money is spent and what it is spent on. The foreign aid question most people think we spend money to help the poor in sick in other countries, not this is lethal aid going to Egypt, Israel, ect.

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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Google Jeb Bush posted:

i am reasonably certain that disney would rather have desantis murdered in public by suited men wearing mickey mouse ears than let this happen


* in a mickey mouse voice *

HAHA The Mouse always win.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
Your in a damned if you do damned if you don't situation though. Not releasing materials looks like you are hiding something and people fill in the blanks with their biases. Doing it obviously leads to emboldening people, gives credence to the violence. HOW the media reports this stuff is important as we know from everything from Columbine to now, for years the narrative was losers who loved their video games and come to find out they were relatively popular kids in who may of been involved with the white supremacist movement.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Captain_Maclaine posted:

I think this is the crucial distinction about the majority of Trump's base vs. common media descriptions of same. Like previous fascists, his demographics are mostly bourgeois/petite-bourgeois types who feel deeply insecure and vulnerable to shifting socio-economic trends and movements, without in the main actually suffering significant damage from them. They have their petty little kingdoms and by god they're not giving up their privileges so some pink-haired androgynous weirdo can feel safe being themselves in public, or whatever other example you care to name. Now, the people actually getting screwed over by the capitalist hellword we live in are no less vulnerable to culture war distractions to be sure, but they're also usually much more keyed in to who/what specifically is giving them the shaft on a daily basis ie: their job, boss.

The key split here for people is looking at the split of people who made over $100k but didn't have a college education Trump was up +34 and up +10 in the demographic who had a college educaiton. When Poliwonks was a thread, its useful to think of these people as those who think they are selfmade. Small business owners, living mostly in rural or small suburbs. They own SOMETHING or they are the middle managers at a business and are given JUST enough privileges to want to "protect" what they earned.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Ghost Leviathan posted:

It's literally just because they, directly, are not benefiting. It's a simple trick. 'Someone I don't like is doing better than I think they should- they must be cheating. I want to cheat better.'

It's simpler than that, the only moral X is my X. The only moral illuminati member is my illuminati member because he agrees with my view of the world.

I guess if we want to be more in depth about it is that within people's identity is the political identity and what tribe they ascribe it to. We see survey after survey of conservatives who agree with liberals, leftists, and others that wealth distribution is a problem and that the wealthy should be more closer to the middle than where it is now. They also agree that people who are struggling deserve help. Then you say: What if that person is black? a woman? jewish? And their tribal meter goes awry. THOSE PEOPLE don't deserve help, therefore I will oppose this.

I will also say this, the Democrats (and other leftists not here) have to be careful about assuming Spanish speaking communities will naturally ally with them. Whiteness is an insidious thing and seeing what Trump did in certain Mexican communities and seeing Miami trend Republican means there some movement into bringing them into the white power family. The Democrats have been bad about organizing outside their safe zones and using the tools available to them. Why they aren't running digital ads all the time or buying ads on internet radio or podcasts or loving twitch, I will never know.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Because they genuinely don't think they need to try, and that any nonwhite people not voting for them are clearly unreachable ungratefuls or white-adjacent bro-adjacent loony leftists. (unless they're Florida Cubans, for some reason)

Also that neoliberal Democrats refuse to acknowledge material conditions, thus the only available acknowledgment of reality is through the idpol lens that poverty and misfortune for white people can only be because of insufficient application of their privilege.

I don't agree with this entirely because of my work with Democratic politicans. The sense I always get is they are a bit scared of being called radical (for doing the things they should do!) and that there is a 60s/70s/80s style revolt around the corner. They are still very traumatized from whenever Democrats try to do anything remotely good, Republicans froth, the media uncritically adopts rightwing talking points, no new people come to volunteer, no new voters, lose power. They are trapped in a cycle of caution where that is concerned.

And credit to Joe Biden who said, let's do some popular things and run on it, unlike the Obama 2010 cycle of passing something that was good and then running from it. Ultimately, the Democrats understand the material conditions and it least in the house even rank and file are ready to do things but the Senate sucks.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

It's possible that it hasn't been processed yet or that her son has a different last name than her, but there is no minor with the last name of Jones who was charged with a crime in Florida in the last 24 hours in NCIC.

Let's also keep in my mind that 12 hours is a quick turn around time for a reputable journalist to turn around a news story. To say there isn't anyone picking it up right now, doesn't mean anything.

Also, to add, did anyone see that Musk added NPR as a US State Media arm on Twitter?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
Here is another reason why his strategy is stupid:

Let's say for WHATEVER reason Trump isn't all the ballot. If you cede early states to someone else, THEY get the momentum and media coverage, THEY get the money, and THEY get to claim credibility. His strategist is playing for a tie and hoping the delegates back DeSantis. It's literally saying we don't have any appeal anywhere but we'll win on a technicality of the rules and hope you get behind it.

edit: Like honestly, he should focus on ONE of New Hampshire or Iowa at least.

Mooseontheloose fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Apr 6, 2023

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

PT6A posted:

I can't remember if I saw it here or on Twitter, but I think this sentiment summed it up very well:

https://twitter.com/ElieNYC/status/1644129754172334080

Even someone who ain't woke can see just how egregious this is, you pretty much have to be a card-carrying white supremacist to not see something's pretty hosed up here.

I joked with someone that it's a rare double fascism. Outlawing the people who disagree with you and having a race based way of executing the expulsion is loving brazen.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Gumball Gumption posted:

The flip side of that is he mostly lost due to being president during a once in a lifetime event. No pandemic and the election is wildly different.

I mean his handling of it kinda cemented what Trump is/was and there is not telling what the economy was going to be going into to spring/summer but we are doing counterfactuals that we can't possibly know the effect of.

DeSantis COULD win the Presidency, sure but we also know that a stiff breeze causes him to meltdown pretty easily. he has never really faced a political challenge before either, so if any Republican even sniffs momentum, we don't know how he will react.

I think we are susceptible to the same irrationality of the public, CNN and the mainstream media is setting up a DeSantis/Biden fight and we think DeSantis is strong because of said coverage. We see people talking about DeSantis, we assume that he has appeal and so on and so forth. I am not saying that the Democratic Party or Biden shouldn't think they are going to coast to victory but we are talking like we are doomed and I think in April of 2023 making these prognostications before the public is even paying attention is foolhardy and a way to entrench your own beliefs.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Ghost Leviathan posted:

I mean in the 2020 election specifically, for the record. Genuinely wondering, I vaguely remember some significant demographic swings but can't recall the specifics.

I was wrong. I said white women, turns out white men shifted more. Trump gained with White Women...

Here is a Pew Research report with the numbers.

quote:

Biden made gains with suburban voters. In 2020, Biden improved upon Clinton’s vote share with suburban voters: 45% supported Clinton in 2016 vs. 54% for Biden in 2020. This shift was also seen among White voters: Trump narrowly won White suburban voters by 4 points in 2020 (51%-47%); he carried this group by 16 points in 2016 (54%-38%). At the same time, Trump grew his vote share among rural voters. In 2016, Trump won 59% of rural voters, a number that rose to 65% in 2020.

After decades of constituting the majority of voters, Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation made up less than half of the electorate in 2020 (44%), falling below the 52% they constituted in both 2016 and 2018. Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points, while Gen Xers and Boomers were more evenly split in their preferences. Gen Z voters, those ages 23 and younger, constituted 8% of the electorate, while Millennials and Gen Xers made up 47% of 2020 voters.

Mooseontheloose fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Apr 9, 2023

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

AlternateNu posted:

So, 2020 was the inflection point where our cohort can no longer hind behind boomer numbers to explain political losses. Good to know.

I mean, yes and no. They are still 48% of the vote but the number is declining. I mean, its interesting that the Democrats despite losing in 2022 are outperforming the last few midterms.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
The one thing that will keep the Millenials left leaning and voting Democratic (Yes, yes I know, not the same thing) is that the economy has never worked for them and they grew up in the gay marriage culture war. Conservatives will never do anything approaching fixing the economy or helping people economically nor are they going to give up culture war stuff. Sitting here and saying capitalism is America's greatest strength when it loving failed millenials twice is a great way to not get votes basically.

If a conservative can logic himself into UBI and like paid family leave, they'd make some inroads I imagine into the millenial bracket.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Sax Mortar posted:

Best I can think of is that they put two young and (so far) seemingly legitimately good men in the national spotlight that we almost certainly wouldn't have heard otherwise. Time will tell based on what they're able to do with said spotlight.

Can someone more familiar with Tennessee tell us if it's possible to flip it? Places like North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia I get because they are growing states, rapidly urbanizing or expanding. Can Tennessee be organized in any fashion outside of Memphis and Knoxville (though we should always be organizing!)

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Harold Fjord posted:

It's pretty much a perfect summary of how there will be no winning against climate change because conservatives will pay one another to roll coal, own the libs, and cast Meteor

Jenova's paradox

Listen, Shrina has my best interest at heart, sure this slum is dirty and mako poisoning killed my family, but could you imagine what would happen if we didn't have them around.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

PT6A posted:

gently caress all of them, IMHO.

This is where I stand on it, they all kinda suck in their own way about this and quite frankly could all be doing more.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

quote:

And in a previously unreported college editorial, Jeffries defended his uncle along with Nation of Islam Leader Louis Farrakhan, writing, “Do you think that a ruling elite would promote individuals who would seek to dismantle their vice like grip on power?” He added that they were unfairly targeted by “White media” for challenging “the longstanding distortion of history.”

I mean, he ain't wrong either.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Yeah for the first part, but you might want to do a quick Google on what Louis Farrakhan thinks is the secret history the white media is covering up.

Spoiler: A lot of it is "Jews invented the slave trade, Jim Crow laws, and had Hitler assassinated and smeared for trying to resist their control."

I know that and I am not saying defending Farrkan is good but it's a young man's first protests against the system in the 90s.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

ninjahedgehog posted:

I don't think it's contradictory to say regarding the antisemite Lous Farrakhan, you do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to them" and also that the white/conservative media especially way overstates his influence in order to have a easy punching bag and direct attention away from far more prevalent forms of racism

This was the point I was trying to make put way better.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

CuddleCryptid posted:

It's tricky too because infants can't have real medicine, so even the stuff that doctors recommend you are "English ivy extract" and "grapefruit seed extract". It's easy to get confused.

And that's not even including the food advertising for kids. Yeah, I see you, Motts. "Apple juice, half as much sugar!" Yeah, because it's half as much juice. You're just watering down your regular apple juice, I can do that too and not get charged for the privilege.

I do appreciate though there has been a move to tell parents, give your young kids calories, try your best on balancing the meal.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

I thought the Supreme Court decided that all death penalty rulings had to be unanimous?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Randalor posted:

Did anyone just try nettling him about his past failures constantly? Just constantly bring up his three bankruptcies at his casinos ("How the heck do you bankrupt casinos 3 times? Those are literally free money. A blind monkey could run one successfully!") Or his Trump Steaks and Trump Vodka ("I'm a big fan of your vodka. Works great for cleaning my floors. Which cleaning company did you use to make it?"). I know the Democrats would never stoop to that level because ~decorum~ but being petty bullies is the GOPs stock and trade.

He's deflected it by saying that he is smart person who used the law to protect his money, as a big smart money man does. It was brought up a lot in the last election. In my mind, if you are a GOP candidate is to say you lost the election to Joe loving Biden. You lost, the voters rejected you, we can't win with you on the ballot because you're a loser.

But they can't because they'd have to acknowledge the election as a legitimate.

The problem the Republicans have is that their minority of crazies control the party but they don't have a person who can unite the majority or pull of enough base people. They are all aiming for the same piece of the pie, whether they believe it or not, but don't know how to be genuine to the crazies.

Mooseontheloose fucked around with this message at 14:03 on Apr 15, 2023

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

pencilhands posted:

And let’s not forget the Willie Horton ad or Hurricane Katrina. Liberals care about surface appearances and nothing else.

What are you trying to say here?

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Kavros posted:

really? i assume that doesn't include removal?

Senate votes for removal and that's a 2/3rds vote.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
One thing that Congress hasn't tried is to just restrict what the Supreme Court can hear, I know it was floated around during marriage equity to pass it and put a provision that the Supreme Court cannot hear any cases around marriage equity.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

the_steve posted:

Yeah. I think the very reductionist barebones definitions are:

Castle Doctrine: If they're in your house and you didn't invite them, they're fair game.

Stand Your Ground: You are under no obligation to attempt to disengage from a conflict.

SYG is worse because you can just vaguely state that your life was in danger in pretty much any situation and it has to be taken seriously. Self-defense usually requires that you not escalate a situation and in some states, you have a duty to retreat. Of course a place like Florida basically says, he looked at me funny I feared for my life on my Sunday stroll through gated suburbia and that's what I had to take your life.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
As I understand it, EVs or vehicles that generate electricity to move like fuel cell vehicles, require less mechanical parts which * in theory * means less repair cost.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
It should also be noted that if we had a functional government, the Democrats in the senate would take the house bill say, here is the compromise and then hash out an agreement. But one party is insistent that they should only get their way no questions asks.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Youremother posted:

I wonder what they were afraid of the special master discovering that caused them to fold so hard.

My guess is they don't want the extent they were involved with the Republican party and how intertwined they were ever becoming public or discoverable.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

lobster shirt posted:

what do you think is going to happen?

Fienstein has found the holy grail, she will live forever now.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Nenonen posted:

Uh... so about the Trump Tent Rehab Cities.

Putting aside what dystopian nightmare he is offering America, isn't this a little too close to Obama's FEMA camps that his supporters are so afraid of?

"Obama, as a black man, was clearly going to hurt me a "successful" white person. But we need to do something about the undesirables."

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

ryde posted:

Yeah but you'd want actual houses or apartments. Or at the very least shelters or treatment facilities. Putting them in a tent city is a terrible idea (and not actually an improvement, given it's how most of them are living now).

Yah I mean the solution is to build more housing everywhere basically.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

McCarthy has announced that they have a Republican debt ceiling bill and could vote on it as early as next week.

Primary planks:

- Repeal most of the IRA.

- Life debt ceiling for $1.5 trillion dollars or until 3/31/2024 - whichever comes first.

- Cut domestic spending down to where it was in 2022 and cap the growth in total domestic spending to 1% per year for the next 10 years.

- Void Biden's student loan forgiveness plan (pretty sure this is not necessary and the Supreme Court has them covered here)

- Requiring all unspent pandemic aid by the states to be returned and cancelling the disbursement of any remaining unspent pandemic aid at the federal level.

- Work requirements for SNAP beneficiaries.

- Require faster and more additional oil and gas leasing on federal lands that the federal government has declined to hold auctions for to raise revenue.

- Repealing the EPA's new regulations on requiring utilities to begin removing PFAs from drinking water.

- Reduce maximum TANF benefits without work or community engagement requirements.

- Repeal a pause on leasing federal land for coal mining and increase the number of leases sold.

- A resolution formally proclaiming congressional disapproval for the executive branch withdrawing the permits for the Keystone XL Pipeline (lol)


I hope Biden tells McCarthy to gently caress off forever.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Randalor posted:

I'm honestly not even sure what DeSantis' endgoal even is right now. Hes picking a fight with his state's largest employer and using people who can't even be bothered to go to Disney's open meetings so they keep having "11th hour reveals" that were announced months prior, so I'm honestly curious what his chances of re-election are as Governor. He's too cowardly to actually announce he's running for president, and instead playing these "If I were going to run *wink*" games. Like, other than "to own the libs" and "piss off Florida's biggest employer", what is his actual endgame?

he thinks his endgame is to become President.

A few posters said that every move he has made is basically going to crash Florida's economy hard in a few years but he is maximizing gains now. I am not sure how true that is but he plans to not be there in a few years.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

i know we've talked about this before but who votes for these dipshits. Who honestly believes that this is the most PRESSING thing in America? Like I kinda get the low tax people because at least it effects your paycheck in some way but who goes, YEP this is the thing that's going to make my life easier.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Jaxyon posted:

Being cruel is more important than their own benefits.

I know and I know it shouldn't shock me but here I am just shocked again.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

CuddleCryptid posted:

Its good to be informed on Trans issue, but reading your post I feel like you are falling into the trap of thinking that if you can just explain the issue properly to someone and show them the right data then they will come around on the issue, which just doesn't happen in any significant way. Anti-trans bigotry has an emotional root, and if you show them evidence that it's not something they should be doing then they are just going to brush you off.

The way to fight against anti-trans bigotry isn't by convincing bigots with studies, but supporting people who already understand the intrinsic value of all people. For everyone else the options really come down to ostracizing them, deplatforming them, and generally making them unable to put their hate into practice until they give up. Essentially the same way you handle every fascist.

Other activists are way more informed than me but one of the ways you combat discrimination and untruths is to counter racist/transphobic/bigoted speech out loud. Not so much for the person you are arguing against but if there are other people around to make sure they realize there is another point of view out there. Similarly, calling someone a racist/transphone shuts down the conversation you can convince some people to see their views in a different way if you come from a place of saying how their actions are effecting other people.

You won't convince everyone but it is doable.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
They also focus on women's sports because they inherently believe women to be weak flowers who need defending and I thought you wanted to defend women. Try reversing it and see the outrage is the same.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I don't know if there is a particular reason or not. But, launching a campaign with a video that is followed by a speech a few days later is pretty common. Off the top of my head, Obama, Nikki Haley, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain all did it.

It's basically a way to get cheap media hits. You say you are putting a video up its reported, the video is reported on, and then your announcement is talked about into a media cycle about the announcement.

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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

According to a new WSJ poll today, DeSantis has plummeted in the Republican primary, but still beats Biden in a general.

Trump loses to Biden by the same amount as DeSantis leads. Could partially be a large margin of error just working out on different ends. But, it looks like a similar dynamic to 2020 and 2022 is at play where Biden/Democrats are overwhelmingly winning voters who don't like either candidate/party or somewhat disapprove of Biden in a Biden v. Trump match.

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649364640047022080
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649366937539862529
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1649414264958984198
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1649368966643564545

So a year and a half out, DeSantis is in a statistical tie with Biden despite having probably the best press he will ever get?

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