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aBagorn posted:i find it wild that america has finally embraced pickleball. It's amazing it took us this long considering it's essentially slower and easier tennis.
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Mar 27, 2023 12:56
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TheDisreputableDog posted:I don’t think so? The electorate is older in general, but retirees make up like a quarter of the Republican base, not significantly greater than the Democrats. Using the lowest tranche of education as a rough guideline for class and earnings, you can see the left used to have an edge, but even as the overall electorate in that category shrank, more of them vote Republican now. From what I've seen, and I think this largely agrees with what Ghost Leviathan is saying, is that the most likely Republican voter is white, over 50, makes over $100k, has a High School degree or some college (but not a full college degree), and lives in a suburban or rural area. These are people who are either small business owners, or worked good paying blue collar jobs for long periods of time. Anecdotally, I work around a lot of people who fit this description, and there are a lot of Trump voters. Republicans have a bad demographic trend in that the lower education level population love them, but they are also the worst voting demo. They also have good support from high income people, and white people, who are very good at voting. Democrats, on the other hand, have huge support from minorities, urban, and low income people, and they are also bad at voting. They also have support from college education people, who are the best voting demographic. Essentially each party has a combo of good and bad voting demographics that are kind of balancing out. Democrats really need to hope that younger voters keep voting for Dems as they get older and become more reliable voters, and I think there are some trends that show this is happening.
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Apr 3, 2023 14:46
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Eric Cantonese posted:I apologize if this isn't the right thread, but are there any polls out there tracking the Wisconsin Supreme Court election? How worried should we be? There have been very few polls, the ones that exist show Protasiewicz (D) with a slight lead. She is way ahead in fundraising though, so that should help. Now ask me how worried I am that Vallas is going to win in Chicago.
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Apr 4, 2023 03:26
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Eric Cantonese posted:Yeah. Vallas is going to run away with it, right? Not likely. Polls have it very close with Johnson closing the gap in the last few weeks. Vallas still leads in the polls, but it should be close. Might not know the winner for a few days though depending on mail-in ballots.
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Apr 4, 2023 04:14
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Great news in Chicago and WI tonight.
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Apr 5, 2023 02:42
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The key will be to see if Millenials slide more Republican or stay hard Democrat. They moved from +25 for Clinton to +19 for Biden. Now that’s still a large margin, but it’ll be a problem if it keeps sliding. 2012 saw Millenials vote for Obama around +20, so right now there really isn’t a trend, and hopefully it stays that way. If Millenials stay +20, we’ll see Dems start winning by big numbers. Big If though.
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Apr 9, 2023 14:03
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aBagorn posted:i kept reading a bunch of think pieces saying Gen X has swung hard right over the last 10 years Is there any data to back this up? When I look at presidential elections, gen x has always hung around the 50/50 mark, and that wasn’t any different in 2020 when they just barely favored Biden.
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Apr 9, 2023 15:16
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DarkCrawler posted:What progressive could even conceivably run against Biden without it being a total humiliation? I don't think anyone besides maybe AOC having anything approaching Sanders' profile. Yea, I don't think anyone could try to challenge Biden and actually get him to move left on anything, it would be mostly pissing into the wind. Barely anyone pays attention to a primary with an incumbent running, and some up and comer getting buried by Biden can only hurt them in the future. Better to just build your ground game and wait for 2028 when the field will be wide open again and you can actually stand out. Biden probably wouldn't even bother to do any debates next year if someone does challenge him, there would be no point in it.
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Apr 26, 2023 13:33
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I AM GRANDO posted:Is this Thomas stuff going anywhere? People knew he was an absolute monster in the 80s and he was still confirmed. Right now there's just a few people clamoring for SCOTUS to adopt some ethics standards, but even that probably doesn't amount to much. The problem is that the only recourse that congress or the President has over a runaway judge like this is impeachment and removal from the court, and Dems don't have nearly the votes, and Republicans absolutely will not vote to remove a conservative judge. This is mostly just hoping Clarence Thomas actually feels some shame about the whole thing, and lol about that.
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May 4, 2023 12:55
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Personally, I think Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot (again) on the debt ceiling. Add things like border security or immigration reform is just going to muddy the waters even more. If you want to talk spending cuts with the debt ceiling, you can probably convince some people to be on your side, but with two weeks to go and now they're going to add onto demands and for things that aren't budget related, now they just look like they don't want to make a deal at all. I figured they really didn't want to make a deal beforehand, but now it seems obvious. I don't see how this is a winning issue for them, and I really hope Republicans learn that without crashing the economy first.
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May 15, 2023 21:04
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Charliegrs posted:It's a winning issue for them because if there's a default and the economy crashes people are going to blame Biden. Most people don't pay attention to any of this inside baseball politics stuff. They are just going to see the economy crashing down around them on Bidens watch. And even the few pay that pay attention maybe a little bit? They are just going to be wondering why they have now lost their jobs all because Biden wouldn't sign off on making welfare people have to work for their welfare or whatever else their local (Sinclair owned) news station tells them. And well doggoneit they never even heard of this debt limit thing during the Trump years so obviously he was a better president and the election is right around the corner and he's running again so... Trump has gone on record that he thinks congress should let the country default. I’m not sure how Biden catches the blame for something Republicans want to do.
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May 16, 2023 12:05
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I get where you're coming from, but if we go back to the government shutdown of 2013 (which I know is not the same as what we're talking about now), the public generally blamed Republicans for it, even though Obama was president. So we do have some history of the public looking beyond just who the president is. I think Dems can possibly control the narrative enough that more people blame Republicans for a default. I'd rather not get to that point though.
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May 16, 2023 12:28
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Children's education attainment is highly correlated to their parent's education attainment, it's essentially a feedback loop. Kids with college educated parents are more likely to get a college degree than ones without one, and the reverse where kids with parents that have no high school degree are also more likely to end up without a HS degree. This usually has a bigger impact on a child's education levels than the quality of the schools they attend or teachers they have. College educated parents are more invested in their children's education because they value that education more. They also have better paying jobs that allow more flexibility, which means they can spend more time investing in their children. They are more prepared to help children with classwork, get them in to afterschool activities, get them tutoring if their child needs it, etc. There are studies out there that can more or less predict how a person will be doing at 48 just based on the education levels of their parents when that person was just 8. Parents without HS degrees are poorer, have less predictable jobs, can't afford after school activities, and have a harder time helping with classwork. This all leads to less parental supervision over their child, and the child also doesn't see the value in the education because their parents don't have one. They are also more likely to live in poorer areas affected by violence, and drugs, and the already mentioned lack of food security. You're less likely to go to school if you're worried about getting shot on your way there, and you're less likely to go to school if your parents don't care if you go either. This has a decent summary of multiple studies done on parental education as it relates to childhood educational outcomes if you want to read it. https://militaryfamilies.psu.edu/wp...an06.final_.pdf Bird in a Blender fucked around with this message at 16:18 on May 23, 2023 |
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May 23, 2023 16:14
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UKJeff posted:Really? As in, a democrat or left-leaning politician? I honestly can’t think of a single case. It’s always been “when they go low, we go high” and stuff like that. Rahm Emmanuel and Anthony Weiner were notorious assholes when they were in the house, and they were pretty good at getting things done. Rahm should have stayed in the house instead of moving to be chief of staff for Obama, and then a lovely mayor of Chicago, and Weiner should have kept his weiner in his pants.
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May 25, 2023 14:20
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Randalor posted:Do strikes just magically pop out of the ether in the US? I thought that unions normally had to give notice of a strike to the company stating the date and time that the union is striking. The company and the drivers likely both knew that a strike was going to happen that day. There really is a question of why the drivers even showed up to start working, and why the company even planned to make deliveries that day if both knew a strike was imminent. Not really enough detail in that article to know that. Maybe the company figured the drivers would just start their strike after making their deliveries, could be the drivers did this intentionally so they could ruin as much concrete as possible. This ruling is just telling the lower court they needs to actually continue the case. This decision is because a Washington court dismissed the lawsuit. There is no guarantee that the company is even going to win their case.
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Jun 1, 2023 18:46
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Mellow Seas posted:This cannot fully explain an increase in traffic deaths that began in 2015. There was a slight uptick in vehicle deaths from 2015-2017, but then it came back down again. We more or less had a plateau in deaths from 2009 to 2019, and then a big leap in 2020. The numbers below are deaths per million miles driven. There wasn't any real upward trend until the pandemic hit. 2007 1.36 2008 1.26 2009 1.14 2010 1.11 2011 1.10 2012 1.14 2013 1.10 2014 1.08 2015 1.15 2016 1.19 2017 1.17 2018 1.14 2019 1.11 2020 1.34 2021 1.37
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Jun 1, 2023 19:37
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Furnaceface posted:Does the USA have the same weird obsession with pickup trucks that Canada does? You can barely find a small compact car for sale these days, just used car lots full of pickups and large SUVs. US manufacturers have mostly abandoned regular sedans. It’s SUVs, trucks, and the occasional sports car. You can still get Japanese or German sedans, but GM and Ford abandoned those lines a while ago. Americans generally want to drive taller cars, and unfortunately there’s a little bit of a feedback loop with that. If most other cars on the road are big, you’re going to feel less safe in a smaller and shorter car.
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Jun 23, 2023 02:08
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:Only if one is a literal coward. There is no excuse for owning these large vehicles and anyone who does should be reminded constantly how they contribute to the death of the planet and those that live on it. A tattoo of the word “shame” across the forehead would not be enough. Except you are less safe in a smaller car if you get into a collision with a bigger car. https://www.iihs.org/topics/vehicle-size-and-weight quote:IIHS demonstrated the role of size and weight in a series of crash tests in 2019, pairing a midsize SUV and small car made by Kia and a large car and minicar made by Toyota in collisions with each other. Both of the smaller vehicles, the 2018 Kia Forte and 2018 Toyota Yaris iA, had good ratings in the five IIHS tests relevant to driver protection, but they performed poorly in collisions with the larger vehicles. Now if everyone drove small cars this wouldn’t be an issue. Once all your neighbors start driving bigger cars, then the story changes.
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Jun 23, 2023 02:19
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BiggerBoat posted:Consider me educated today learning from NPR that Phoenix, AZ, which is currently being slow roasted alive, is supposedly the FIFTH largest city in the country (?) Jacksonville, Phoenix, and Houston are only big population wise because they are also huge geographically. Houston and Jax are both twice as big in area as NYC. Phoenix is like 65% bigger. The density of those three is pretty low for what are supposed to be a major cities.
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Jul 27, 2023 01:17
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I keep getting paranoid that Desantis is going to have some John McCain like return from the dead and comeback to win the nomination. McCain in 08 was literally running his campaign on fumes, everyone thought he was out of it, and then he stormed back. Then again, I think 08 was more every other candidate dramatically loving up, and McCain slowly building momentum. Desantis has been loving up for a solid 6 months now.
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Jul 31, 2023 12:48
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One solution might just be a company tax. If a company wants to buy a residential property they get a surcharge tax on the sale. Would level the playing field with actual individuals trying to buy a home. Not sure what that markup needs to be, 10% maybe? I’m sure we can figure something out.
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Aug 3, 2023 14:36
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Some states are moving to abandon cash bonds all together. You’re either too much of a risk, so you go to jail, or you go free, no bond. I wonder what would’ve happened if GA had that kind of law.
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Aug 21, 2023 23:52
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Ghost Leviathan posted:The administration's approach to labour has been interesting. I do wonder if there's been a mix of the ancient geezers who don't understand why they were so openly hostile to organised labour anymore and some of the less ancient looking at their policies and realising they're getting literally nothing out of anti-union, anti-drug and anti-sex worker policies when literally the only people they impress are ones existentially opposed to the existence of non-Republicans anyway. (or are rusted-on blue voters no matter how hard they clutch their pearls) It makes so much sense it's maddening the Dems spent so long ignoring unions. I think Biden has always been a pro organized labor kind of guy, so that part isn't too surprising. Dems also do way better with union labor than non-union, so the more people they get in unions, the better they do. Also a good strategy to win back blue collar workers that fled to Trump.
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Aug 31, 2023 12:45
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Randalor posted:But here's the thing, if you're SO disrespected, then no one will want to do what you say, so you just say you want the opposite of what you want and watch everyone fall into lockstep to deny you what you say you want! It's brilliant! ...or they form an angry mob and burn you at the stake, but Rick Scott is already a skeleton, so whatever. The way the republican base reacts to anything Democrats do, I kind of wonder if this strategy should be employed nationwide.
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Aug 31, 2023 13:59
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zoux posted:Can’t share it because it’s being embargoed under Twitters anti hate policy (lol) but this tweet she liked is in the replies, so you can get there from here This tweet wouldn’t be that bad on its own, but combined with the other one, yikes. The Rainbow Coalition started by Fred Hampton was a combination of the Black Panther Party, the Young Lords, and the Young Patriots. The YP were southern whites living in Chicago that used the confederate flag at their meetings. The Young Patriots were a leftist org though. So despite hanging confederate battle flags around, they actually shared a lot of the same ideas of the BPP. I don’t think you’re going to find too many organizations hanging that flag around and still being leftist these days. Feels like cynthia McKinney probably started with this idea of having poor black and white people working together is good, but decided to go down the anti-Semite path, which is sad and stupid.
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Sep 12, 2023 00:55
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Nervous posted:I always suspected but I just didn't want to believe Guy turns around too fast and that giant hog he has just starts knocking buildings down.
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Oct 26, 2023 13:04
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
Am I reading this right that inflation is at 1.9%? Isn't that pretty much the ideal rate for inflation according to the Fed, or is there a different inflation rate they look at? Seems like if inflation is down to 2% then the Fed is probably done raising interest rates.
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Oct 26, 2023 15:27
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:You get that there is some irony in talking about all the things your vote can’t, or hasn’t done, while you also have a fantastic counter example, Beshear. I'd like to add on that saying your vote doesn't count is self-defeatist. I bet a whole lot of Georgians didn't think their vote counted for poo poo until 2020 when all of a sudden the state flipped. Just because Dems lose a lot in Kentucky, doesn't mean your vote doesn't count. At a minimum, it shows the party what level of support they have in the state. If things start getting close like they did in Georgia, then the party has more incentive to take notice and invest more. Dems have won in strange places the last 6 years or so. Nothing is impossible.
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Oct 27, 2023 14:20
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Twincityhacker posted:The UAW negoatied a contract with Ford today, which makes the last one they were still negotating on. GM not Ford, but point still stands. Ford was the first one to come to an agreement with the UAW.
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Oct 30, 2023 21:40
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Sub Par posted:The Daily (NYT podcast) today is about Robert Card and how he was able to commit these crimes while clearly posing a danger. I recommend a listen, it's a good and depressing overview of the situation. The moral of the story is that everyone seems to have done the "right thing" with the possible exception of the local Sherriff's office. They could have used Maine's "yellow flag" laws to take his guns, and did not even try. This is very similar to what happened in the Aurora, IL shooting. Guy had bought guns legally, but later on it was discovered that he had a felony conviction in another state, so his firearm card (FOID in Illinois) was revoked. The state police said he needs to turn in his guns, but did zero follow up on it. He then used those guns to shoot up his old work place.
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Nov 2, 2023 18:54
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Misunderstood posted:There are so many things that seem like, even if you are unlikely to accomplish them, you have a lot to gain by forcing Republicans to argue against them. Legalizin' it is one. I think any impeachment of anyone in government starts in the House, not the Senate, so impeachment is a complete non-starter while Republicans control the house. I guess Dems can make a lot of noise about doing it if they regain power, but that's all they're going to be able to do.
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Nov 6, 2023 14:33
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Hillary underperformed Obama with union workers by 10%. Considering the razor thin margins she lost by in union heavy states like MI and PA, I’d say union voters are still an important demographic. Plus union membership is finally on the rise again.
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Nov 10, 2023 13:16
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B B posted:Protestors have disrupted the California Democratic Convention to call for a ceasefire: There are some 20,000 Palestinians living in cook county, IL. The Democrats absolutely need this war over soon, otherwise expect to see scenes like this at the DNC in Chicago this summer.
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Nov 20, 2023 01:59
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Panzeh posted:I'm kind of on the boat that remote learning probably wasn't good for most kids but i don't know if there was a decent alternative as well. I think some people really do need the structure, especially young children, and they didn't get it. The only alternatives I can think of would’ve required a massive amount of money. Like either paying one parent to quit their job so they could become a full-time home schooler with the help of a couple of zoom classes from their normal teacher. Or find tens of thousands of temporary educators and putting kids in like 6 person pods would’ve worked too, but how do you find all those people, and then where do you create all these temporary classrooms? Really the first option was probably realistic, but would mean funneling like $50k a year to every family, which could be done, but it definitely wasn’t going to happen.
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Nov 21, 2023 14:00
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I’m worried that the swing on immigration is a result of Texas and Florida bussing immigrants en masse up to northern cities. This is mostly from what I’ve seen in Chicago where we’ve seen communities very pissed off about the city trying to build camps for recently arrived migrants. Cities that typically held favorable views on immigration are now having to face it every day and it’s a lot easier to just say “build the wall” than to actually do something to help these people. I have nothing to back this up though other than gut feel.
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Nov 21, 2023 21:33
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Google Jeb Bush posted:...uh oh Well this campaign is going to be really short lived. I realize this guy was probably more about building a name for 28, but he’s doing a terrible job of that.
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Nov 24, 2023 02:00
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Bodyholes posted:States that have one party politics for long enough get bored of it and sometimes they like to have a "pet governor" from the minority party who basically can't do anything because there are supermajorities in the legislature that can easily override them. It'll be a moderate indistinguishable from moderates from their own party usually. Since they can't damage anything even if they try it's hard to hate them. Illinois had Republican Bruce Rauner before JB Pritzker, and boy did we hate the poo poo out of Rauner. He also got jack poo poo done like you said because he had to face huge Dem majorities in both chambers of the general assembly. Rauner probably rivaled Blago for most hated governor.
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Nov 28, 2023 20:32
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Logic Probed posted:I will attest that my first job out of graduating university involved using AutoCAD in editing and making switchgear projects for various companies. I had never been given formal training on the software, nor did I quite understand the concept of the product being made here, and the components of how it functions, as well as anything related to making sure I could accurately understand the parts necessary to make functional schematics tailored to the customer's order. If you want to get in to drafting, there is a bid demand in the construction industry. My company is constantly looking to hire detailers, and a lot of people we hire don't have a ton of technical knowledge of what we do, but they do need to be good at running Autocad and Revit. I'm in HVAC and plumbing, and probably a third of our office staff is in the VDC (virtual design construction) department. So if you're still interested in doing that, I'd start looking to the construction industry. We are most definitely not requiring advanced degrees for this kind of work, hell a lot of people have high school degrees and maybe an Associates Degree.
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Nov 29, 2023 18:27
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/APTA_info/status/1729980352423162251 NYC is a combo of the city being pretty hostile to cars while also having a very robust transit system. They have a ton of trains. Owning a car in NYC is expensive as hell to own, park and insure and the traffic is horrible. For most people it’s way more convenient to the transit. LA has a terrible car culture. Notice how they are just barely above Chicago while having double the population. They have too many roads and not enough trains. Chicago ridership has also dropped off a ton since the pandemic. E: a quick look and in 2019, CTA ridership was over 400 million. Bird in a Blender fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Dec 1, 2023 |
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Dec 1, 2023 02:24
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Staluigi posted:
The CTA leadership does suck right now. They have struggled hard to get enough people for buses and trains since the pandemic so everything takes longer. Wait times for trains used to be 5-7 minutes during normal times, now 10 minutes is pretty normal and late at night is loving awful. Buses were not great before and have gotten worse. It’s been frustrating for everyone.
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Dec 1, 2023 13:28
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