War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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Volmarias: Dec 31, 2002; EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

The next innovation is just going to be a giant umbrella, isn't it.

# ? Apr 10, 2024 18:28

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# ? Apr 30, 2024 02:23

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://x.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1778075121875296381

I assume this is due to the delay until the shells from the Czech initiative get to Ukraine, not that they're already going through that ammo. The GOP is really earning that ruble like a motherfucker.

# ? Apr 10, 2024 18:58

OneEightHundred: Feb 28, 2008; Soon, we will be unstoppable!

You all laughed at the cybertrukk but now it is the future of warfare.

# ? Apr 10, 2024 18:58

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Russian air forces accidentally dropped a FAB-1500 on a shop in their occupied area :stonk:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1777638755484021095

Had it detonated, there would be nothing left of that building but a crater. I don't know if it's wise to stand in the doorway filming it or not?

# ? Apr 10, 2024 20:16

Mystic Mongol: Jan 5, 2007; Your life's been thrown in disarray already--I wouldn't want you to feel pressured.; College Slice

Nenonen posted:

Had it detonated, there would be nothing left of that building but a crater. I don't know if it's wise to stand in the doorway filming it or not?

Man, I'd get some footage of that bomb given the opportunity.

# ? Apr 10, 2024 21:05

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Nenonen posted:

Russian air forces accidentally dropped a FAB-1500 on a shop in their occupied area

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1777638755484021095

Had it detonated, there would be nothing left of that building but a crater. I don't know if it's wise to stand in the doorway filming it or not?

idly curious if a large fuel air bomb detonating late in a confined space might suffocate itself. it's the kind of question i don't want in my google search history though. either way i'm sure you wouldn't want to be in the confined space if it had a late detonation

# ? Apr 10, 2024 21:09

Wibla: Feb 16, 2011

Give it some time, they'll probably end up doing that by accident soon...

# ? Apr 10, 2024 21:12

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

idly curious if a large fuel air bomb detonating late in a confined space might suffocate itself. it's the kind of question i don't want in my google search history though. either way i'm sure you wouldn't want to be in the confined space if it had a late detonation

It's not fuel air bomb, FAB is just Russian acronym for high explosive aviation bomb. :eng101:

Some types of bombs need to be primed before launch so that if the plane fails at take off or has to jettison load to gain altitude then there's a chance of survival. Could be that, or just a random dud.

# ? Apr 10, 2024 21:28

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

those willey reds and their perfidious non-english acronyms

# ? Apr 10, 2024 21:30

Nitrox: Jul 5, 2002

This is not the first or second time it happened.

They launch it far back in occupied territory and the bombs glide over a long distance. In case of specific malfunction, the bomb just drops where the gliding mechanism fails. It's not always over a city, but that's the only kind of drop that makes the news.

# ? Apr 10, 2024 21:33

mutata: Mar 1, 2003

I've actually been to that town.

# ? Apr 10, 2024 23:37

PainterofCrap: Oct 17, 2002; hey bebe

Nenonen posted:

Russian air forces accidentally dropped a FAB-1500 on a shop in their occupied area

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1777638755484021095

Had it detonated, there would be nothing left of that building but a crater. I don't know if it's wise to stand in the doorway filming it or not?

Might as well, it's anyone's guess if you could get far enough away before it randomly detonates.

Your point is well-taken, though: That is too many people being too damned casual around the probable cause of their imminent death.

# ? Apr 11, 2024 01:25

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Excerpt from prepared posture statement from the Commander of USEUCOM for a HASC hearing today. Yes, the USEUCOM point of view is also an opportunity to make their case to congress with regard to funding/emphasis, so someone could argue reading this alone without reading posture statements that are more directly concerned with competition in other theaters/domains is unfair, but seems worthwhile to read what is being said on the hill this week regarding Russian capability after 2+ years of conflict in Ukraine since the renewed invasion in February of 2022.

Video of full hearing here:
https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/full-committee-hearing-us-military-posture-and-national-security-challenges-europe-0
Commander, USEUCOM prepared opening statement:
https://armedservices.house.gov/sites/republicans.armedservices.house.gov/files/USEUCOM%20GEN%20Cavoli%20CPS_HASC_2024.pdf

quote:

42 Russia remains a capable threat beyond Ukraine, and it�s necessary to examine what
43 has and has not happened to the Russian military in Ukraine. Russia poses the most stressing
44 nuclear, biological, and chemical threat in the near-term and will continue to retain WMD
45 capabilities in the medium and long term. First and foremost, Russia�s nuclear forces have been
46 unaffected by the conflict, and Russia retains the largest arsenal of deployed and non-deployed
47 nuclear weapons in the world. These continue to present an existential threat to the U.S.
48 homeland, our Allies, and our partners. Additionally, Russia continues to modernize its nuclear
49 forces, and continues to pursue efforts to develop nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic
50 missile systems, nuclear-armed hypersonic boost glide vehicles, nuclear-powered cruise
UNCLASSIFIED
3
UNCLASSIFIED
51 missiles, nuclear-powered underwater drones, anti-satellite weapons, and orbital nuclear
52 weapons.
53
54 Moreover, during this conflict Russia�s strategic forces, long range aviation, cyber
55 capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no
56 capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10% of their fleet. The navy
57 has suffered significantly in the Black Sea � but nowhere else and Russian naval activity
58 worldwide is at a significant peak. Russian long range precision fires have increased in
59 production, and Russia has also begun to buy ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range
60 drones from third countries who were previously outside this fight. In fact, it is mainly only in the
61 land forces that Russia has suffered, losing over 2,000 tanks and 315,000 soldiers wounded or
62 dead. However, Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates
63 suggested. The army is actually now larger � by 15 percent � than it was when it invaded
64 Ukraine. Over the past year, Russia increased its front line troop strength from 360,000 to
65 470,000. Russia�s army increased the upper age limit for conscription from 27 to 30, which
66 increases the pool of available military conscripts by 2 million for years to come. Russia has
67 announced plans to pursue an ambitious ground forces restructure, increasing to 1.5 million
68 personnel with an expanded footprint. This restructure includes plans to transform seven
69 motorized rifle brigades into divisions and a new army corps. Russia plans to base some of
70 these new formations in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, as well as Karelia in the High
71 North, opposite Finland. Perhaps most concerning, the Russian military in the past year has
72 shown an accelerating ability to learn and adapt to battlefield challenges both tactically and
73 technologically, and has become a learning organization that little resembles the chaotic force
74 that invaded Ukraine two years ago.
UNCLASSIFIED
4
UNCLASSIFIED
75 Russia continues to display a resilient economy and an ability to withstand sanctions
76 and export controls. Last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted a 2.1 percent
77 drop in Russia�s 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, by the end of the year, the
78 IMF revised its estimate that Russia�s GDP increased by 3%, primarily due to heavy
79 investments in defense. Currently, the IMF outlook predicts Russia�s GDP will increase by 2.6%
80 in 2024. Russia is on track to spend 6 percent of its GDP on the military, with defense spending
81 exceeding social spending for the first time since the end of the Soviet Union. This defense
82 spending includes new manufacturing plants and factories for weapons production. Russia is
83 on track to produce or refurbish over 1,200 new main battle tanks a year, and to manufacture at
84 least 3 million artillery shells or rockets per year � over triple the amount the US estimated at the
85 beginning of the war � and more ammunition than all 32 NATO Allied combined. Moreover,
86 Russia has responded to international sanctions by adopting evasion and import substitution
87 strategies that have allowed it to overcome challenges in acquiring key components, including
88 microelectronics and machine tools. This has allowed Russia to continue to invest in high-end,
89 exquisite weapon systems to offset U.S. strategic advantages, several of which were
90 successfully tested this year.
91 In sum, Russia is on track to command the largest military on the continent and a
92 defense industrial complex capable of generating substantial amounts of ammunition and
93 materiel in support of large scale combat operations. Regardless of the outcome of the war in
94 Ukraine, Russia will be larger, more lethal, and angrier with the West than when it invaded.
95 Diplomatically, Russia has used the past two years to attempt to alter the global
96 security architecture by creating relationships that challenge the existing order. Russia, the
97 PRC, Iran, and DPRK are forming interlocking strategic partnerships across the world�s largest
98 landmass. This block of adversaries is more cohesive and dangerous than any threat the
99 United States has faced in decades. As of March 2024, the DPRK provided Russia with roughly
100 6,700 containers that could contain up to three million artillery shells. Iran has provided Russia
UNCLASSIFIED
5
UNCLASSIFIED
101 with drones, artillery, and missiles that have enhanced Russia�s lethality in Ukraine. Russia and
102 Iran have a billion-dollar weapons deal that includes domestic production of 6,000 drones by the
103 summer of 2025. The PRC provided Russia with nonlethal assistance ranging from drones to
104 computer chips, and increased its imports of Russian goods by 12% to $117.8 billion in the last
105 year. The PRC, Iran, and DPRK are sustaining Russia�s economy and enabling it to continue
106 its aggression in Ukraine. This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an
107 increasingly challenging international security environment.

# ? Apr 11, 2024 04:00

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

Russia's completely destroyed the biggest electricity plant in the Kyiv region.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-strike-targets-cities-across-ukraine-2024-04-11/

Kharkiv is also experiencing rolling blackouts and a lot of district heating infrastructure is heavily damaged.

quote:

Unconfirmed footage shared on social media showed a fire raging at the large Soviet-era facility and black smoke belching out of it.

"We need air defence and other defence support, not eye-closing and long discussions," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on the Telegram messaging app, condemning the attacks as "terror".

Kyiv's appeals for urgent air defence supplies from the West have grown increasingly desperate since Russia renewed its long-range aerial assaults on the Ukrainian energy system last month.

The only silver lining is that Russia didn't have enough resources to mount this attack during winter like last year, but it also probably means that this winter Ukraine had a better air defence than now. This summer Russia is likely to mount another large scale offensive, too, which is bound to rely on air support. This is what allowed Russia to advance at Avdiivka, and they would be fools not to use this until Ukraine gets more Patriots or finally receives some F-16s.

# ? Apr 11, 2024 12:22

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

ukrainian conscription bill has been passed and is off to zelensky for his signature

quote:

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) � Ukraine�s parliament on Thursday passed a controversial law on how the country will call up new soldiers at a time when it needs to replenish depleted forces that are increasingly struggling to fend off Russia�s advance.

The law was passed against a backdrop of an escalating Russian campaign that has devastated Ukraine�s energy infrastructure in recent weeks. Authorities said overnight missile and drone attacks completely destroyed the Trypilska thermal power plant, the largest power-generating facility in the region of the country�s capital.

Two years after Russia�s full-scale invasion captured nearly a quarter of Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher for Kyiv. After a string of victories in the first year of the war, fortunes have turned for the Ukrainian military, which is dug in, outgunned and outnumbered.

The country desperately needs more troops � and more ammunition � at a time when doubts about the supply of Western aid are increasing.

The mobilization law was first envisioned after Ukraine�s summer counteroffensive failed to gain significant ground last year � and authorities realized the country was in for a longer fight.

In December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine�s military wanted to mobilize up to 500,000 more troops. Army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has since revised that figure down because soldiers can be rotated from the rear. But officials have not said how many are needed.

The law � which was watered down from its original draft � will make it easier to identify every draft-eligible man in the country, where many have dodged conscription by avoiding contact with authorities.

Under the law, men aged 18 to 60 will be required to carry documents showing they have registered with the military and present them when asked, according to Oksana Zabolotna, an analyst for the watchdog group Center for United Actions. Also, any man who applies for a state service at a consulate abroad will be registered for military service.

However, it remains unclear how the measure will ensure all draft-eligible men are registered. In that way, it �does not fulfill the main declared goal,� she said.

The law also provides incentives to soldiers, such as cash bonuses or money toward buying a house or car � perks that Zabolotna said Ukraine can not afford.

It�s not clear how many new conscripts the law might lead to � and it�s also unclear whether Ukraine, with its ongoing ammunition shortages, would be able to arm large numbers of new soldiers without a fresh injection of Western aid.

In total, 1 million Ukrainians are in uniform, including about 300,000 who are serving on the front lines.

Lawmakers dragged their feet for months over the mobilization law, and it is expected to be unpopular. It comes about a week after Ukraine lowered the draft-eligible age for men from 27 to 25.

The law will become effective a month after Zelenskyy signs it � and it�s unclear if and when he will. It took him months to sign the law reducing conscription age.

Earlier this month, Volodymyr Fesenko, an analyst at the Center for Applied Political Studies �Penta,� said the law is crucial for Ukraine�s ability to keep up the fight against Russia, even though it is painful for the society.

�A large part of the people do not want their loved ones to go to the front, but at the same time they want Ukraine to win,� he said.

Thursday�s vote came after the parliamentary defense committee removed a key provision from the bill that would rotate out troops who had served 36 months of combat. Lawmaker Oleksii Honcharenko said in a Telegram post that he was shocked by the move.

The committee instructed the Defense Ministry to draft a separate bill on demobilization, news reports cited ministry spokesperson Dmytro Lazutkin as saying.

Exhausted soldiers, on the front lines since Russia invaded in February 2022, currently have no means of rotating out for rest. But considering the scale and intensity of the war, devising a system of rest will prove difficult.

A soldier taken off the front lines because of injury told The Associated Press his comrades badly need respite.

�Of course, I want the boys to be released (from military duty), at least after 36 months. There are no more thoughts, I want the boys to have some rest,� said the soldier, who only gave his name as Kostyantyn for security reasons.

Ukraine already suffers from a lack of trained soldiers capable of fighting, and demobilizing soldiers on the front lines now would deprive its forces of the most capable fighters.

Meanwhile, in what private energy operator DTEK described as one of the most powerful attacks this year, missiles and drones struck infrastructure and power facilities across several regions overnight.

The Trypilska plant, which was the biggest energy supplier for the Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Zhytomyr regions, was completely knocked out and unable to supply electricity.

At least 10 of the strikes damaged energy infrastructure in Kharkiv, Ukraine�s second-largest city. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said more than 200,000 people in the region were without power and Russia �is trying to destroy Kharkiv�s infrastructure and leave the city in darkness.�

Energy facilities were also hit in the Zaporizhzhia and Lviv regions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described the strikes as retribution for Ukrainian attacks on Russia�s energy infrastructure � a slew of Ukrainian drone strikes over the past few months hit oil refineries deep inside Russia.

Speaking during a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow, Putin charged that Russia had spared Ukrainian energy plants during the winter on �humanitarian grounds,� but was �forced to respond after a series of strikes on our energy facilities.�

Four people were killed and five were wounded in a Russian attack on the city of Mykolaiv on Thursday, regional governor Vitalii Kim said. In the Odesa region, four people were killed and 14 were wounded in Russian missile strikes Wednesday evening, governor Oleh Kiper said.

seems like the actual results these measures will make is dubious, but i suppose at this point a hypothetical strict conscription law wouldn't have visible impacts till later this year

not mentioned in this reporting, but something i saw elsewhere is the bill allows for those jailed for certain felonies to volunteer in exchange for early parole

else that throw away line from putin at the end there, my god what a piece of poo poo. the russians were only able to hit the thermal plant after more than a year and a half of highly visible attritional strikes on energy infrastructure. the sheer gall it must take to lie in such a brazen way is staggering

# ? Apr 12, 2024 01:32

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

ukrainian conscription bill has been passed and is off to zelensky for his signature

seems like the actual results these measures will make is dubious, but i suppose at this point a hypothetical strict conscription law wouldn't have visible impacts till later this year

not mentioned in this reporting, but something i saw elsewhere is the bill allows for those jailed for certain felonies to volunteer in exchange for early parole

else that throw away line from putin at the end there, my god what a piece of poo poo. the russians were only able to hit the thermal plant after more than a year and a half of highly visible attritional strikes on energy infrastructure. the sheer gall it must take to lie in such a brazen way is staggering

If they get the bodies in uniforms, even if they are more of the ad-hoc territorial troops than better-trained regulars, it will help a great deal. A common theme is that Ukrainian units are afforded no time at all to rest and refit. Replacements they do get are folded into the unit on the fly while they are still on the front. If front line units are allowed to absorb replacements in the rear, even if on a rotational basis, there is a chance that the new wave of bodies coming in will have a much higher degree of proficiency. But even assuming Zelensky signs immediately, it is going to be Q3 2024 before troops really start making it to the front. The window is wide open for the Russians to really make significant gains.

# ? Apr 12, 2024 03:23

Volmarias: Dec 31, 2002; EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

MikeC posted:

If they get the bodies in uniforms, even if they are more of the ad-hoc territorial troops than better-trained regulars, it will help a great deal. A common theme is that Ukrainian units are afforded no time at all to rest and refit. Replacements they do get are folded into the unit on the fly while they are still on the front. If front line units are allowed to absorb replacements in the rear, even if on a rotational basis, there is a chance that the new wave of bodies coming in will have a much higher degree of proficiency. But even assuming Zelensky signs immediately, it is going to be Q3 2024 before troops really start making it to the front. The window is wide open for the Russians to really make significant gains.

It does remind me of the example of the IJN running their crack pilots into the ground, rather than ever letting them return to teach tactics to new airmen, which lead to things like The Great Marianas Turkey Shoot. It's rough, but they've got to figure something out, I just don't know what they can realistically do here.

# ? Apr 12, 2024 05:19

small butter: Oct 8, 2011

Biden has bypassed Congress many times to sell weapons to Israel. Why can't he do this for Ukraine? Is it because Ukraine typically receives grants and Israel gets sales?

# ? Apr 13, 2024 14:25

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

small butter posted:

Biden has bypassed Congress many times to sell weapons to Israel. Why can't he do this for Ukraine? Is it because Ukraine typically receives grants and Israel gets sales?

The way Biden �bypasses congress� is that congress passed laws saying that the president can bypass them on certain amounts of money and certain type of donations and sales, with different rules per receiving country.

Biden has already used most of his authority to �bypass Congress� for Ukraine, and Congress has not appropriated additional funds.

Biden has not yet reached the limit of what a president is authorized by congress to sell (in particular) or donate to Israel.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 14:34

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

small butter posted:

Biden has bypassed Congress many times to sell weapons to Israel. Why can't he do this for Ukraine? Is it because Ukraine typically receives grants and Israel gets sales?

Israel was authorized to purchase arms back in the Obama administration. While Biden has some discretion in what they buy, telling purchasers how they can use their American weapons and trying to dictate their foreign policy is going to send a lot of countries to other places to buy their arms. As long as they're paying cash, they're going to get what they want. It would take an act of Congress to cut them off at this point.

Aid to Ukraine is a donation, and requires an appropriation from Congress to fund it.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 14:44

small butter: Oct 8, 2011

Thanks for the explanations.

What do you mean by these two statements?

Deteriorata posted:

As long as they're paying cash, they're going to get what they want. It would take an act of Congress to cut them off at this point.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 21:12

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

small butter posted:

Thanks for the explanations.

What do you mean by these two statements?

They're an authorized buyer, approved by Congress. They're not asking for donations, they're shelling out their own money.

Congress would have to pass a law declaring them an unwelcome customer to cut them off.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 21:16

small butter: Oct 8, 2011

Interesting. Do you have a source on this? I've definitely heard things like "Biden can stop weapons sales to Israel unilaterally" from experts on places like NPR and others.

Sorry, off topic from Ukraine at this point, I know.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 21:43

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

small butter posted:

Interesting. Do you have a source on this? I've definitely heard things like "Biden can stop weapons sales to Israel unilaterally" from experts on places like NPR and others.

Sorry, off topic from Ukraine at this point, I know.

He can, because all sales go through the executive, but it's a really bad precedent that he desperately wants to avoid. "Buy American arms and we'll use it as�an excuse to take over your military and dictate how you use them and prosecute your wars," is not a good policy. Lots of current customers would find new sources.

Congress cutting them off is a surer route with fewer consequences.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 21:54

khwarezm: Oct 26, 2010; Deal with it.

Can I go out on a limb and think that a proper shooting war starting between Iran and Israel is going to be really, really bad for American support for Ukraine?

# ? Apr 13, 2024 22:23

small butter: Oct 8, 2011

Makes sense re weapons sales, thanks.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 22:30

Sir John Falstaff: Apr 13, 2010

khwarezm posted:

Can I go out on a limb and think that a proper shooting war starting between Iran and Israel is going to be really, really bad for American support for Ukraine?

May depend--a serious, full-on war between Israel and Iran probably would be. A "war" where each sporadically launches ineffectual drones and missiles at the other, and Israel continues to periodically engage with Iranian proxy groups in Syria and Lebanon, maybe not, and might actually get Congress to pass the kind of combined Israel/Ukraine funding package that they've been trying to pass for a while (not a comment on the morality of it, to be clear).

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Apr 13, 2024

# ? Apr 13, 2024 22:33

Sir Kodiak: May 14, 2007

Deteriorata posted:

He can, because all sales go through the executive, but it's a really bad precedent that he desperately wants to avoid. "Buy American arms and we'll use it as�an excuse to take over your military and dictate how you use them and prosecute your wars," is not a good policy. Lots of current customers would find new sources.

Congress cutting them off is a surer route with fewer consequences.

Why would Congress cutting a country off have fewer consequences than the executive doing so? The country in question would still be bothered by the US dictating how the arms are used. Current customers would still look for new sources.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 22:43

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

khwarezm posted:

Can I go out on a limb and think that a proper shooting war starting between Iran and Israel is going to be really, really bad for American support for Ukraine?

What American support? And if IDF bombed some Iranian weapons plants that may actually affect Russian weapons supplies.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 22:46

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Iran and Israel are not going to get engaged for a long period because geography prohibits it. Iran might launch one drone swarm across Iraq/SA but a longer campaign would get a reaction. Israel is likely to shoot the drones and missiles down and there is little reason to continue escalation because they asked for it, so it would be like when Trump killed an Iranian general and then Iran hit a US base in Iraq with missiles but not before telling them so.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 22:59

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Some "US officials" told ABC it may be 400-500 missiles and drones (!!), which sounds pretty different from just posturing.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 23:01

Telsa Cola: Aug 19, 2011; No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

OddObserver posted:

Some "US officials" told ABC it may be 400-500 missiles and drones (!!), which sounds pretty different from just posturing.

From various locations/countries too, which seems kinda like a thing.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 23:02

Volmarias: Dec 31, 2002; EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

OddObserver posted:

Some "US officials"

it may be

Ok then.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 23:02

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

Volmarias posted:

Ok then.

Well, unlike most "unnamed officials" "leaks" this one will at least be somewhat verifiable

# ? Apr 13, 2024 23:06

khwarezm: Oct 26, 2010; Deal with it.

OddObserver posted:

Some "US officials" told ABC it may be 400-500 missiles and drones (!!), which sounds pretty different from just posturing.

I mean, that's probably less than it sounds if they need to get through Israeli air defence and Drones can't carry much of a payload.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 23:11

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

khwarezm posted:

I mean, that's probably less than it sounds if they need to get through Israeli air defence and Drones can't carry much of a payload.

I don't recall Russia ever launching more than 200 a night, but that's only counting Shaheeds among drones, which are actually pretty big; it's possible this estimate includes smaller stuff.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 23:27

Kchama: Jul 25, 2007

Sir Kodiak posted:

Why would Congress cutting a country off have fewer consequences than the executive doing so? The country in question would still be bothered by the US dictating how the arms are used. Current customers would still look for new sources.

Because it's a lot harder for Congress to do it and can be explained as "I don't have control over these people, so it isn't the president screwing you over." Plausible deniability basically.

# ? Apr 13, 2024 23:32

Sir Kodiak: May 14, 2007

Kchama posted:

Because it's a lot harder for Congress to do it and can be explained as "I don't have control over these people, so it isn't the president screwing you over." Plausible deniability basically.

Okay, but why would a customer for US weapons care about that? The claim was that current customers would look for new suppliers if buying American arms meant you'd be dictated to about how those arms can be used. The foreign leaders are really going to say, "oh, it's Congress dictating terms, not the president, so I won't worry about it"? I get why the president could shift personal responsibility, but why is the foreign country not going to still take that precedent into account when deciding what suppliers to rely on?

# ? Apr 14, 2024 01:22

Kchama: Jul 25, 2007

Sir Kodiak posted:

Okay, but why would a customer for US weapons care about that? The claim was that current customers would look for new suppliers if buying American arms meant you'd be dictated to about how those arms can be used. The foreign leaders are really going to say, "oh, it's Congress dictating terms, not the president, so I won't worry about it"? I get why the president could shift personal responsibility, but why is the foreign country not going to still take that precedent into account when deciding what suppliers to rely on?

Because when it doesn't ever happen, that plausible deniability builds confidence. That's why it's in their control instead of the president's. If you notice, even though Congress complained about the 'bypassing', it was done using Congress's own rules allowing Biden to do so, and I don't think anyone has done anything more than bitch.

Also governmental relations are dumb.

# ? Apr 14, 2024 01:42

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# ? Apr 30, 2024 02:23

Sir Kodiak: May 14, 2007

Kchama posted:

Because when it doesn't ever happen, that plausible deniability builds confidence. That's why it's in their control instead of the president's. If you notice, even though Congress complained about the 'bypassing', it was done using Congress's own rules allowing Biden to do so, and I don't think anyone has done anything more than bitch.

Also governmental relations are dumb.

Sure, I get that if Congress never cuts anyone off then nobody is worried about being cut off. That makes sense.

I was responding to a post that said "Congress cutting them off is a surer route with fewer consequences." That statement reflects a hypothetical where Congress actually cuts someone off. I was asking why, in that case where the cutting-off by Congress actually happens, there would be fewer consequences than if the president actually cut someone off.

# ? Apr 14, 2024 01:51

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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