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fatherboxx)
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The House should switch to secret voting 
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Apr 18, 2024 11:38
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DTurtle posted:Ukraine bill will easily pass. The support in the House has been there the entire time. The reason it wasn’t passed yet is that the Republicans don’t have the votes to pass it on their own without Democratic support. Correct. The Republicans operate off off something called the "Hastert Rule" named after a prominent GOP pedophile. It says "nothing reaches the floor for a vote without the majority of the GOP caucus supporting it." Complicating it is their bugnuts insane rule that any one person can submit a vote of no-confidence on the Speaker and force a vote to remove/replace them. Given that this batch of republicans can barely elect a leader/Speaker in the best of times, this means that most bills never see the light of day on the floor either due to lack of support or blood-gargling threats from the hardliners to remove the Speaker. It seems, in this case, that Johnson is between a rock and a hard place with regards to foreign aid (too many supporters of it, while there's a hardcore group totally against it) and he's signaling that he'll relent and allow a floor vote. So assuming no shenanigans in the Senate, Ukraine could see another ~60 billion in aid approved shortly. The REAL question is: how fast can/will Biden get that aid shipped out? Hopefully the latest dire news coming out will prevent foot dragging, but it remains to be seen.
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Apr 18, 2024 15:02
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Deltasquid posted:Theoretically EU countries could pool together and buy patriot missiles from American suppliers and donate them to Ukraine but as a matter of policy everybody is trying to ramp up production in the EU itself (with some exceptions like the Czech artillery shells plan which was more of a stopgap measure) Find it hard to believe France in particular wouldn't find a way to block any EU pooled money from being spent on procuring from US suppliers. French defense industry must always benefit from any defense spending France has some control over
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Apr 18, 2024 15:59
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Splitting it into separate bills was also done to make it easier for it to fail in the Senate so this isn't really over yet.
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Apr 18, 2024 16:16
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OneEightHundred posted:Splitting it into separate bills was also done to make it easier for it to fail in the Senate so this isn't really over yet.
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Apr 18, 2024 16:28
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DTurtle posted:No. The plan is to combine them again and then send the combined bill to the Senate to pass without humongous problems. This is accurate. Also, Johnson fully expects each one to pass anyway, so when they are combined they are identical to the Senate version anyway. They were split so the lunatic fringe of his party can go on the record voting against Ukraine.
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Apr 18, 2024 16:47
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How does the $70bn of this bill compare with earlier bills? Has it been earmarked? Are there things to immediately actually send?
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Apr 18, 2024 16:59
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quote:Aid to Ukraine would total about $61bn, but more than a third of that amount would be dedicated to replenishing weapons and ammunition systems for the US military. So expect more patriots and other long range systems Ukraine lacks.
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Apr 18, 2024 17:35
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Sad Panda posted:How does the $70bn of this bill compare with earlier bills? Has it been earmarked? Are there things to immediately actually send? Among other things, it specifically mandates ATACMs to be sent over. Expect more smoking accidents Soon™
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Apr 18, 2024 18:31
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Is the House using the Hassert rule for Ukraine? As in, do a majority of Republicans have to be in favor for a floor vote? If so, is a majority of Republicans for Ukraine aid? Is there anything that the Biden administration can do to make shipping the weapons, etc. go faster while the aid is still not voted on so that when it does pass, there's no dicking around?
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Apr 18, 2024 19:05
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small butter posted:Is the House using the Hassert rule for Ukraine? As in, do a majority of Republicans have to be in favor for a floor vote? If so, is a majority of Republicans for Ukraine aid? They can definitely start arranging shopping lists and inventory, even if they can't stage the deliveries (which they may also be able to do, but that's a bit fuzzier). Now whether they're Actually doing that...who knows.
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Apr 18, 2024 20:34
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As far as I know, despite all the MAGA crap and weird libertarian like Thomas Massie most of the GOP will likely still continue to find the Ukraine war but I think a lot of them are concerned with election season. That war while still popular still has a lot of conservative who don't like it but they still need their votes. They need to present some kind of cover that they worked it out, etc. All the delays and drama are exactly that. I think it'll pass.
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Apr 18, 2024 20:37
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What does polling say about the overall level of support for Ukraine among GOP voters? I had the impression that maybe GOP Congress members were more supportive of aid to Ukraine than their voters, who, if Trump says Putin is the greatest and we should abandon Ukraine (and he basically does) that that is now their position.
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Apr 18, 2024 21:49
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It'll pass but I'll still be relieved when it does, and I can't help but think that the past six months have really hurt Ukraine's position on the battlefield, in a way that they may not recover from.
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Apr 18, 2024 21:56
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Zwabu posted:What does polling say about the overall level of support for Ukraine among GOP voters? I had the impression that maybe GOP Congress members were more supportive of aid to Ukraine than their voters, who, if Trump says Putin is the greatest and we should abandon Ukraine (and he basically does) that that is now their position. Trump also softened his tone on Ukraine in a truth social (post?/tweet?). I'll spare you the details but in summary: 1. He's super mad that Europe isn't stepping up and matching the amount of funding the US is giving to a conflict that should be more important to Europe than it is the US (still important to the US) 2. A tirade about how this wouldn't have happened on his watch 3. Absence of any condemnation or negation of support for Ukraine That's about as close as you'll get to a tacit approval for Ukraine support from the orange man. As for why he suddenly changed his mind I have no idea. Something happened when Johnson went to see Trump at Mar-A-Lago and I have no idea what it might be.
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Apr 18, 2024 21:56
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Kraftwerk posted:Trump also softened his tone on Ukraine in a truth social (post?/tweet?). I'll spare you the details but in summary:
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Apr 18, 2024 22:45
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Kraftwerk posted:Trump also softened his tone on Ukraine in a truth social (post?/tweet?). I'll spare you the details but in summary: Worst guy you know makes a great point, etc etc.
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Apr 19, 2024 00:20
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small butter posted:Is the House using the Hassert rule for Ukraine? As in, do a majority of Republicans have to be in favor for a floor vote? If so, is a majority of Republicans for Ukraine aid?
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Apr 19, 2024 00:45
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Is there no present-day Oliver North type who can do some plausibly deniable off the books Iran/Contra poo poo to get some artillery shells and air defense goodies to the good guys?
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Apr 19, 2024 05:09
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Don't know how they're doing it, but looks like Ukraine claimed another Russian bomber kill: Tu-22M3 supersonic bomber, apparently only 26 still airworthy, over Krasnogvardeysky District of Stavropol, 500km east of the front lines.
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Apr 19, 2024 05:46
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Kestral posted:Worst guy you know makes a great point, etc etc. European countries absolutely should be giving more aid to Ukraine, but isn't US the one matching the amount of European aid with this new support package, not the other way around? I think the totals add up to about the same from European countries and US if this new aid package passes. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-solidarity-ukraine/ 
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Apr 19, 2024 06:02
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As a % of GDP the US is actually behind a lot of countries, especially countries near the war
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Apr 19, 2024 06:34
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I expect Trump only counts direct military support because those numbers are more convenient for him to use.
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Apr 19, 2024 06:53
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Griefor posted:I expect Trump only counts direct military support because those numbers are more convenient for him to use. 
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Apr 19, 2024 09:05
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Great use of colour there, Kiel Institute
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Apr 19, 2024 09:35
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Griefor posted:I expect Trump only counts direct military support because those numbers are more convenient for him to use. The GOP are just repeating "why should the USA foot the bill for Europe's wars?" propaganda which is probably being boosted to some extent by Russian troll farms, despite it straight up being false in this case. I see it everywhere on reddit, youtube and Instagram comments and it's infuriating because it always has a smug "well maybe the Europoors should have less socialism, better leave them out to hang to dry  MAGA 2024" undertone.I guess you could say that the USA has given more military aid than any individual EU member state, which is true, but also I'm not raking Long Island over coals because they sent less aid than Poland did, for example
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Apr 19, 2024 09:53
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Didn't even need to use replacement value to eclipse the USA in military aid, as well.
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Apr 19, 2024 09:55
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Young Freud posted:Don't know how they're doing it, but looks like Ukraine claimed another Russian bomber kill: Tu-22M3 supersonic bomber, apparently only 26 still airworthy, over Krasnogvardeysky District of Stavropol, 500km east of the front lines. Theres a video going round of it dropping, thats a good kill given how limited in numbers they are. How the Ukrainians got it 500km into Russian territory is another question though.
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Apr 19, 2024 11:43
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Blut posted:Theres a video going round of it dropping, thats a good kill given how limited in numbers they are. Might not have been a combat loss and just a mechanical or other issue.
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Apr 19, 2024 11:46
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There's a claim that Russian AD is under order to shoot first ask questions later because of the missile and drone threat, resulting in friendly fire kills, but that was specific to the Crimea and this far inside Russia proper it sounds a little far fetched.
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Apr 19, 2024 11:49
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Tevery Best posted:Great use of colour there, Kiel Institute Are you saying there are colors other than blue?
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Apr 19, 2024 12:21
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Whoever keeps bringing down Russian warplanes, they should keep doing it!
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Apr 19, 2024 12:32
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Make me!
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Apr 19, 2024 13:00
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Dandywalken posted:Make me! Make it three in a row.  edit: cripes what do we get for a Triple Space Hilary! 
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Apr 19, 2024 13:52
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Just Another Lurker posted:
Putin sweats at night: No, she's back.
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Apr 19, 2024 14:34
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Young Freud posted:Don't know how they're doing it, but looks like Ukraine claimed another Russian bomber kill: Tu-22M3 supersonic bomber, apparently only 26 still airworthy, over Krasnogvardeysky District of Stavropol, 500km east of the front lines. I guess we'll see some back and forth about the details on where it was shot down and how. This is what I found on Reuters after seeing your post. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-strikes-dnipropetrovsk-region-kill-least-8-2024-04-19/ quote:In a first for Ukraine during the invasion, Kyiv's air force commander and military spy agency said they had shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber that had fired missiles at Ukraine during the overnight attack. According to Wikipedia, the source of all things undisputably true, the S-200s Ukraine is using have a range of about 300 kms. Maybe the 500 kms detail you saw was inaccurate. I'm a little skeptical that Ukraine managed to pull this off, but that's more on my natural pessimism about the world than any great knowledge of air defense. Either way, it's probably a very good thing that Russia has one less of these bombers available to sling cruise missiles and other ordinance into Ukraine.
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Apr 19, 2024 17:52
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Eric Cantonese posted:
If the bomber kept flying on the same track, it absolutely could get hit by the Ukrainians. The US learned that lesson with the F-117 shootdown in the Baltics.
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Apr 19, 2024 19:29
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The "Cowboy Patriot" Russell Bentley has died after going missing following an artillery attack on April 8th.... https://x.com/SputnikInt/status/1781360658866446780 ...or being kidnapped by a Russian military unit in Donetsk for being a spy. https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1781382037628125409 No one really knows for sure!
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Apr 19, 2024 19:39
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The kinematic range of heavy SAMs is easily in the 500km range for all the major systems, when flying lofted trajectories. The reason the range is reported much lower is that "missile can theoretically reach there" is generally speaking not sufficient for a kill. At that range, the missile will have gently caress all energy remaining and it will only hit if you can predict where your target will be, when the missile gets there. This is not something you can generally do, but falls into the same bucket of "if your flight planning is done by morons and you always fly the same path", suddenly all kinds of funny stuff becomes possible.
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Apr 19, 2024 19:46
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| # ? May 2, 2024 12:46 |
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Tuna-Fish posted:The kinematic range of heavy SAMs is easily in the 500km range for all the major systems, when flying lofted trajectories. The reason the range is reported much lower is that "missile can theoretically reach there" is generally speaking not sufficient for a kill. At that range, the missile will have gently caress all energy remaining and it will only hit if you can predict where your target will be, when the missile gets there. See also that time Serbia shot down an F-117. Which was a combination of the above and the pilot pressing the "HEY IS ANYONE ELSE HERE?" button twice
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Apr 19, 2024 19:54
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