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fatherboxx)
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cr0y posted:So we have any idea what Ukraine is gonna get in terms of weapons from this? quote:U.S. officials have not explicitly said which weapons the United States will send to Kyiv as part of the package, but Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, told reporters on Thursday that more air-defense and artillery ammunition would probably be included.
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Apr 20, 2024 23:28
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Also: ATACMS are explicitly Authorized. poo poo's gonna go boom behind the lines.
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Apr 20, 2024 23:34
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Exactly how long while this supply package last? From what I am able to gather, neither side is willing give up or anything up but is there going to be a point where Ukraine may need another one?
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Apr 20, 2024 23:40
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Gucci Loafers posted:Exactly how long while this supply package last? From what I am able to gather, neither side is willing give up or anything up but is there going to be a point where Ukraine may need another one? Of course. The next one will be easier to pass based on the precedent of this one. The will of Trump has been broken.
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Apr 20, 2024 23:43
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Gucci Loafers posted:Exactly how long while this supply package last? From what I am able to gather, neither side is willing give up or anything up but is there going to be a point where Ukraine may need another one? Unknown, the Russian economy seems to be doing ok though. The IMF says the Russian economy is doing just fine as the war has spurred a lot of internal spending. Militarily, RUSI says that the Russians will start to feel the equipment pinch in 2025 if current loss rates continue.
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Apr 20, 2024 23:46
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Gucci Loafers posted:Exactly how long while this supply package last? From what I am able to gather, neither side is willing give up or anything up but is there going to be a point where Ukraine may need another one?
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Apr 20, 2024 23:46
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DTurtle posted:This should easily last up until after the election in November. Then everything will depend on the results of that election. True, it'd be really weird if Trump wins after this aid package passes. Also, the Bill is expected to be passed in the Senate on Tuesday? Not sure when Biden will sign it, next week will be a big deal. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Apr 20, 2024 |
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Apr 20, 2024 23:52
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Can they funnel this money around to fund storm shadows?
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Apr 21, 2024 00:00
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cr0y posted:Can they funnel this money around to fund storm shadows? Hell, if Scholz wasen't such an rear end about this, they could go buy German Taurus-missiles. Taurus anti-radar versions would wreck Russian anti-air in short order. A lot of Ukraine's military aid money goes right back into German military corporations like Rheinmetall anyway. Something like 60-70% of all German military exports in Q1 2024 went to Ukraine.
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Apr 21, 2024 00:22
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spankmeister posted:The GOP could have had the toughest border bill since, idk, the Mexican war? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wetback
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Apr 21, 2024 01:18
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Libluini posted:Hell, if Scholz wasen't such an rear end about this, they could go buy German Taurus-missiles. Taurus anti-radar versions would wreck Russian anti-air in short order. A lot of Ukraine's military aid money goes right back into German military corporations like Rheinmetall anyway. Something like 60-70% of all German military exports in Q1 2024 went to Ukraine. Is there a tl;dr on German support? It sounds like Taurus could effectively destroy the Kerch Bridge but why are still hesitant at this point?
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Apr 21, 2024 01:27
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Gucci Loafers posted:Is there a tl;dr on German support? It sounds like Taurus could effectively destroy the Kerch Bridge but why are still hesitant at this point? Germany is being weird about sending anything that could strike far behind the lines, because that might piss off Putin harder than merely blowing up stuff right at the frontline. Scholz claims (no idea if he actually believes this poo poo) that the only way he'd let Ukraine have Taurus is if German troops were doing the targeting, but that's not on the cards so he won't.
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Apr 21, 2024 01:36
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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the US is being the same way regarding ATACMS, afaik the only ones Ukraine is getting are cluster warheads, nothing that they could use to destroy the Crimean bridge. My assumption is the US and Germany are worried about the Ukrainians using them for decapitation strikes. No way to know what might happen next if Putin or a lot of other political leaders in Russia were killed by a US or European missile
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Apr 21, 2024 01:50
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Have any of the GOP explained why military funding for Israel is OK but not for Ukraine? The most I’ve found so far is “because Trump said so” and “Israel is an ally, Ukraine is not”.
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Apr 21, 2024 02:46
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Mr. Apollo posted:Have any of the GOP explained why military funding for Israel is OK but not for Ukraine? The most I’ve found so far is “because Trump said so” and “Israel is an ally, Ukraine is not”. Seems like you've gotten your explanation.
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Apr 21, 2024 02:48
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Mr. Apollo posted:Have any of the GOP explained why military funding for Israel is OK but not for Ukraine? The most I’ve found so far is “because Trump said so” and “Israel is an ally, Ukraine is not”. Its simple, because they are killing Muslims, and doing so quite proudly.
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Apr 21, 2024 03:01
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For at least a decade, there has been a strain of American conservatism that openly fawns over Putin.
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Apr 21, 2024 03:14
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suck my woke dick posted:Germany is being weird about sending anything that could strike far behind the lines, because that might piss off Putin harder than merely blowing up stuff right at the frontline. Scholz claims (no idea if he actually believes this poo poo) that the only way he'd let Ukraine have Taurus is if German troops were doing the targeting, but that's not on the cards so he won't. This is really one of the most infuriating things. So what if Ukraine strikes the country that's trying to conquer them while committing war crimes and various atrocities? They should strike them! They should try to decapitate leadership! And everyone should give them the means to do it!
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Apr 21, 2024 04:01
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There are clearly limits of what weapons are acceptable/sensible to send to another country at war, and different countries have different boundaries, and Germany is particularly restrained, due to its history
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Apr 21, 2024 04:14
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BabyFur Denny posted:There are clearly limits of what weapons are acceptable/sensible to send to another country at war, and different countries have different boundaries, and Germany is particularly restrained, due to its history The history where they murdered about one fifth of Ukraine's population?
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Apr 21, 2024 04:22
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Everyone is dancing around the possibility of escalation with a nuclear power that still has some pretty big toys that they haven't used. The apparently abysmal state of the militaries of the European members of NATO probably doesn't help with making them feel shy either.
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Apr 21, 2024 04:24
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Volmarias posted:Everyone is dancing around the possibility of escalation with a nuclear power that still has some pretty big toys that they haven't used. that's because that discussion has its own thread, and it has its own thread because it's pretty much entirely just pointless guesswork if you lust for clancychat beyond reason, you may find it here
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Apr 21, 2024 04:30
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Volmarias posted:Everyone is dancing around the possibility of escalation with a nuclear power that still has some pretty big toys that they haven't used. IIRC Russia has basically no where to escalate further short of nuclear weapons or acts of war against NATO and the US; they lack the capability to damage Ukraine more than they currently are doing they only have so many long range missiles to strike at Ukraine while still keeping a ready reserve in case of war with NATO; which given the abysmal state of their forces would be a losing proposition that sees them making the ending Allied cutscene of Red Alert a reality.
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Apr 21, 2024 04:41
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Regarding the US aid package - I'm assuming the Senate isn't quite as insane as the House when it comes to the Republicans? Or is there some expectation of a pushback during/before the vote? Is filibuster a threat for the bill?
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Apr 21, 2024 07:15
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Senate Republicans are almost certainly going to pass the bill. Some might not vote for it or complain but there are more than enough Democrats to make it happen. What is interesting is the aid package passing hasn't impacted Russian strategy too much and the war is going to continue. https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1781857953181524201
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Apr 21, 2024 07:23
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The best outcome at this point is Ukraine continues to bleed Russia dry until Putin's death, whenever that occurs. I don't know if this is clancychat, but I'm not sure this war will end with Putin's death. .....Unless there's a Russian civil war, but that's probably not a good outcome.
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Apr 21, 2024 07:28
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BabyFur Denny posted:There are clearly limits of what weapons are acceptable/sensible to send to another country at war, and different countries have different boundaries, and Germany is particularly restrained, due to its history While German history in Ukraine probably is on the mind of most making these decisions, it has not been brought up as a reason. The main argument for not sending, as stated by Scholz, is that the Taurus missile and their systems require German hands on them for operating, and he and his supporters do not want German military personnel in Ukraine doing that. The counter-argument of course is why cannot Ukrainians do learn to do so, as they have shown they are more than capable of learning and operating any system the West gives them. For some reason(s) Scholz continues to say he knows and trust the Ukrainians can safely and effectively operate them, but they still need Germans to do so.... The only convincing argument I have heard on the reason why Germany will not hand them over is that they actually have very few operational, as in a few hundred that are ready for use. If the Ukrainians do lose this war, the Taurus issue will be will be a snap-shot of what went wrong in the Wests ability to support Ukraine in a both timely and effective manner.
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Apr 21, 2024 08:12
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Mr. Apollo posted:Have any of the GOP explained why military funding for Israel is OK but not for Ukraine? The most I’ve found so far is “because Trump said so” and “Israel is an ally, Ukraine is not”. I mean they'll give other reasons, but those are the actual reasons.
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Apr 21, 2024 08:23
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Gucci Loafers posted:Senate Republicans are almost certainly going to pass the bill. Some might not vote for it or complain but there are more than enough Democrats to make it happen. It's not like the Russians awoke from a collective stupor and suddenly found out that the Congress had passed a surprise bill they had never heard about. The passing of additional aid has been as telegraphed as a thing can be, it's built into their planning.
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Apr 21, 2024 09:53
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Mr. Apollo posted:Have any of the GOP explained why military funding for Israel is OK but not for Ukraine? The most I’ve found so far is “because Trump said so” and “Israel is an ally, Ukraine is not”. Israel is killing brown Muslims, and Ukraine white conservative Christians.
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Apr 21, 2024 10:39
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BabyFur Denny posted:Israel is killing brown Muslims, and Ukraine white conservative Christians. Israel is also governed by extreme right religious nutjobs, which helps.
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Apr 21, 2024 12:33
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Dick Ripple posted:While German history in Ukraine probably is on the mind of most making these decisions, it has not been brought up as a reason. The main argument for not sending, as stated by Scholz, is that the Taurus missile and their systems require German hands on them for operating, and he and his supporters do not want German military personnel in Ukraine doing that. The counter-argument of course is why cannot Ukrainians do learn to do so, as they have shown they are more than capable of learning and operating any system the West gives them. For some reason(s) Scholz continues to say he knows and trust the Ukrainians can safely and effectively operate them, but they still need Germans to do so.... The only convincing argument I Earlier this year, there was some discussion about this in the German media. The idea was brought forward that since the Taurus is also part of the old Cold War German nuclear deterrent, giving them away is a huge can of worms for multiple reasons. Like the fact that a Taurus can theoretically mount the US-owned tactical nuclear warheads stored in Germany, and someone fearing nuclear escalation like Scholz probably got nightmares in which the US gives those warheads to Ukraine, and since they already have our Taurus in this nightmare future, welp they can't resist temptation and WWIII is here now. But this and the low numbers of Taurus-missiles in stock right now are of course not the main reason for not wanting to give them: No, the main reason is that Germany is the pinnacle of civilization, and everyone else is stupid. So if it's not German soldiers helping with targeting, Ukraine will immediately target every Russian school and Kindergarten they can reach, or fumble targeting so badly there will be no difference in practice. And that would give our politicians bad publicity. By now it's only Scholz and a minority who keep believing that, however: It's just that German party discipline is ridiculously strong, and over two-parts of a government coalition voting for the enemy is seen as immediate and total political self-destruction. Can Ukraine still get some Taurus? Well, three scenarios can play out: 1.) The situation in Ukraine continues to be bad, and political pressure on Scholz continues to mount, until he gives in. Hundreds of Taurus will be sent to Ukraine, probably with a small booklet in German language to explain how they work, and not enough spare parts. The introductions of how to mount NATO-warheads will of course be translated into English and perfectly detailed, because that's the kind of dumb efficiency you should expect from us. 2.) Scholz holds out until elections, then a new right-wing government blocks all aid to Ukraine altogether, probably starts sending Taurus-missiles to Russia to help them win faster. 3.) Scholz holds out until elections, but the next government doesn't include Nazis. Who knows what happens next, our conservative parties are really good at only one thing: Lying. In conclusion, the screaming at Scholz will continue, but don't expect any fast decisions soon. In the meantime, Germany will try to scrounge together some more anti-air since that's a lot more palatable to the average German voter. (Like artillery. Artillery and ammunition are boring, so we can send tons of that poo poo, and only a small minority of total peaceniks will even notice.)
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Apr 21, 2024 14:24
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Kind of bizarre that they'd argue the Taurus is part of the "old cold war nuclear deterrent" considering it didn't start design until half a decade after the wall fell and didn't enter service until 2006.
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Apr 21, 2024 14:37
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Dick Ripple posted:While German history in Ukraine probably is on the mind of most making these decisions, it has not been brought up as a reason. The main argument for not sending, as stated by Scholz, is that the Taurus missile and their systems require German hands on them for operating, and he and his supporters do not want German military personnel in Ukraine doing that. The counter-argument of course is why cannot Ukrainians do learn to do so, as they have shown they are more than capable of learning and operating any system the West gives them. For some reason(s) Scholz continues to say he knows and trust the Ukrainians can safely and effectively operate them, but they still need Germans to do so.... The only convincing argument I One of the War on the Rocks podcasts talks about this, and speculated the real reason Germany didn't want to give them is because of what they are designed for compared to missles like storm shadow. Taurus has a sophisticated fuse that can be programed to detonate after penetrating a set depth into its target, compared to more conventional timed based fuses. This makes them really, really good at destroying fixed targets like bunkers and bridges. Germany very much doesn't want its fancy missle destroying Kersh bridge given how much that bridge was a signature project of Putin.
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Apr 21, 2024 15:04
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The USA has thousands of AGM-158 JASSM it could sell, by the way. A much better supply than the limited operational KEPD 350 in service. I'm sure one could find some funding for such a transfer.
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Apr 21, 2024 15:09
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I dont know posted:and speculated the real reason Germany didn't want to give them is because of what they are designed for compared to missles like storm shadow. Didn't the UK already give Ukraine some Storm Shadows that are specifically really really good at destroying structures already though? A quick google shows several articles from late last year saying they were given Storm Shadows with BROACH warheads, and used them, so it seems to be true. So this speculation doesn't seem to hold up at this point.
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Apr 21, 2024 15:13
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Given the way those things go, Ukraine will be given missiles capable of destroying the Kerch bridge right after Russia finishes the coastal railroad that will severely reduce the significance of the bridge for supply lines.
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Apr 21, 2024 15:24
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Small White Dragon posted:I don't know if this is clancychat, but I'm not sure this war will end with Putin's death. It's a necessary but not sufficient condition. The root issue is that Ukraine can't make any peace deal with Putin because Putin will just reinvade a year later. With new leadership in Russia peace would become possible.
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Apr 21, 2024 17:18
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's a necessary but not sufficient condition. The root issue is that Ukraine can't make any peace deal with Putin because Putin will just reinvade a year later. With new leadership in Russia peace would become possible. This is the right take. Any cease fire will at minimum be conditioned on keeping their currently conquered territory and will be extremely temporary. Russia would invent a new reason to try again within 5 years.
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Apr 21, 2024 17:33
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:Didn't the UK already give Ukraine some Storm Shadows that are specifically really really good at destroying structures already though? Perhaps you'd need so many of them they didn't have enough to be sure they would really put the bridge out for long enough so they used them on other targets.
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Apr 21, 2024 17:36
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