(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
GhostofJohnMuir posted:i'm not entirely confident that a dollar of aid now will be equivalent to a dollar of aid in 2022 It absolutely isn't equivalent, no, and that's what's so infuriating about the lackadaisical response. We see a lot of talk - on SA and elsewhere - to the effect of, "lmao the Russians spent all these lives and equipment to advance three inches," but those people are ignoring the fact that every Ukrainian defender who falls in defense of those three inches is far less replaceable than their Russian counterparts. If the UAF gets worn down sufficiently defending those three inches, eventually they're going to be spread too thin, become too brittle, and that's when we'll see collapses. These awful attritional battles need to be stacked hugely in Ukraine's favor (which they initially were), or else they favor Russia's larger pool of manpower. These aren't huge revelations, the less cheerlead-y experts have been cautioning us about this for years at this point and urging decision-makers to think ahead and provide Ukraine with everything it needs right now, but it hasn't happened, and the cost has been devastating. The aid we're providing now would have been far more effective in Ukrainian hands in 2022 and early 2023 than it will be now, and the blood of the soldiers who died needlessly while waiting for the US and Europe to get their poo poo together is on our leaders' hands as well as Putin's.
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 10:18
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 6, 2024 08:19 |
|
|
Kestral posted:We see a lot of talk - on SA and elsewhere - to the effect of, "lmao the Russians spent all these lives and equipment to advance three inches," but those people are ignoring the fact that every Ukrainian defender who falls in defense of those three inches is far less replaceable than their Russian counterparts. If the UAF gets worn down sufficiently defending those three inches, eventually they're going to be spread too thin, become too brittle, and that's when we'll see collapses. These awful attritional battles need to be stacked hugely in Ukraine's favor (which they initially were), or else they favor Russia's larger pool of manpower. It kinda reeks of the Cold War logic where you don't defeat your enemy in a proxy war, you just have your proxy resist enough to really wear the enemy down. There are going to be some agencies in the world that prefer the current somewhat-stalemate that is costing tens of thousands of Russian soldiers as opposed to them being kicked out of Ukraine with half the losses.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 10:47
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Some gimped export models, yes To be clear, they were never going to get the domestic version. No one does but the US. The Soviets did similar back in the day.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 13:02
|
|
|
Irony Be My Shield posted:In terms of Russian ceasefire offers, Foreign Affairs had an article on the April 2022 talks last week. I don't agree with a lot of the analysis but the factual elements it presents are interesting. Thanks for sharing this. It's been publicized that disagreements over security guarantees were one of the sticking points that led to talks breaking down between the end of March and the April 15th draft, but this is a lot more concrete detail than I've seen before.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 16:43
|
|
|
I don't think the west really ever wanted Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory. They don't say it, but that's the impression I get. I think they are worried about whatever clancy type stuff Putin would do if he lost.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 16:44
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I don't think the west really ever wanted Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory. They don't say it, but that's the impression I get. I think they are worried about whatever clancy type stuff Putin would do if he lost. I think the West would've loved a decisive victory actually, but just didn't think it was possible when it was most likely and didn't have the political will to sufficiently arm Ukraine prior to the invasion.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 17:01
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I don't think the west really ever wanted Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory. They don't say it, but that's the impression I get. I think they are worried about whatever clancy type stuff Putin would do if he lost. Ukraine will eventually, though. Russia will not stop until their military is completely exhausted and unable to fight, at which point Ukraine walks over them and takes their land back. As long as the west keeps Ukraine in the fight, they will win. It may take a while, though.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 17:16
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I don't think the west really ever wanted Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory. They don't say it, but that's the impression I get. I think they are worried about whatever clancy type stuff Putin would do if he lost. the west probably is ok with either a decisive victory or a long drawn out mutual annihilation that maximizes the long term demolition of russia's economy and relevance as it exsanguinates itself into a tortured forever war sucks to be the ukranians in the latter outcome, but in terms of sociopolitical goals, russia invading gave the west the best proxy war bargain of the age, collectively this is the cheapest they could have hoped it to have been to have a sociopolitical rival hollow itself out from the inside and destroy its own future since russia already went to town on its own dumb rear end self for the wartime economy, we're only gonna get one or the other, so probably the most important humanitarian goal for these times is shaking off western torpor and fighting for the viability of Plan A. probably the biggest ambiguity has already resolved itself with republican house speakership signing on for extensive american long term military aid, so the US is now in it in the way russia really didn't want. in europe a lot of the supposed support fatigue that was promised to us by the "the only moral option is to just let russia win guys" crowd has failed to materialize in anything near what was suggested
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 17:26
|
|
|
Real world geopolitics isn't Hearts of Iron, world leaders aren't looking at the conflict and going "Oh boy I sure hope Russia doesn't lose too quickly!" there's so many unknowns that its really more about risk mitigation and moving carefully, responsibly and with consensus at that level of power. The people wanting to give Ukraine arms and support aren't doing so hoping on the other hand that Ukraine doesn't use them *too* well; its going to breakdown between people who enthusiastically wants to help Ukraine, people who are sympathetic but have concerns, people who aren't sympathetic but have other concerns, and people who don't want to help Ukraine. At no point is the type and amount of aid being limited by some ulterior schemelike desire to drag things out or being carefully measured in such a way; its as much as anyone can afford to give at that moment and nothing more or less.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 18:05
|
|
|
Staluigi posted:probably the biggest ambiguity has already resolved itself with republican house speakership signing on for extensive american long term military aid, so the US is now in it in the way russia really didn't want. in europe a lot of the supposed support fatigue that was promised to us by the "the only moral option is to just let russia win guys" crowd has failed to materialize in anything near what was suggested I feel like if Trump wins the republican house reverses course and even if they don't he'll just veto any aid passed. It's unambiguously good the aid finally got passed but I don't think Ukraine can breathe a sigh of relief on that front until the election is over and hopefully Biden wins.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 18:10
|
|
|
D-Pad posted:I feel like if Trump wins the republican house reverses course and even if they don't he'll just veto any aid passed. It's unambiguously good the aid finally got passed but I don't think Ukraine can breathe a sigh of relief on that front until the election is over and hopefully Biden wins. Exactly. This aid package working through the Senate right now might be the last aid package Ukraine gets from the US depending on how the election goes.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 20:09
|
|
|
D-Pad posted:I feel like if Trump wins the republican house reverses course and even if they don't he'll just veto any aid passed. It's unambiguously good the aid finally got passed but I don't think Ukraine can breathe a sigh of relief on that front until the election is over and hopefully Biden wins. With bipartisan support, they have enough votes to bypass the veto don't they?
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 20:33
|
|
|
Umbreon posted:With bipartisan support, they have enough votes to bypass the veto don't they? You really think that support is going to hold with Trump as president?
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 20:35
|
|
|
The latest news says the US senate voted to "Advance" the aid bill. What does that mean? How much longer until it passes?
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 20:38
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:The latest news says the US senate voted to "Advance" the aid bill. What does that mean? How much longer until it passes? However longer some very modest and not at all self-important politicians feel like making speeches (up to 30 hours, so may take some days).
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 20:39
|
|
|
spankmeister posted:You really think that support is going to hold with Trump as president? No, but if it somehow did, would they?
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 20:43
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:The latest news says the US senate voted to "Advance" the aid bill. What does that mean? How much longer until it passes? That means it passed cloture (it wasn't filibustered). Debate can now end and the bill can advance to a final vote either late tomorrow or Thursday.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 20:45
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:That means it passed cloture (it wasn't filibustered). Debate can now end and the bill can advance to a final vote either late tomorrow or Thursday.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 21:17
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:Even the individual guarantees in the first draft are an absolutely ridiculous idea. Not a single nation in that list would have ever, under any circumstances accepted such an obligation. It basically means going to full scale war with Russia to defend Ukraine. nah it's extreeeemely realistic that really, the extent of russian demands barely falls short of austro hungarian provocations to start ww1 and the enforcement mechanisms for the proposal are straight from the league of nations
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 22:01
|
|
I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
|
Charliegrs posted:Exactly. This aid package working through the Senate right now might be the last aid package Ukraine gets from the US depending on how the election goes. Even if Trump wins in November its likely the House and Senate could get one more, last, funding bill passed in the lame duck session before hes sworn in in late January. Thats still not good news mind, but its not quite as bad. It'd give Ukraine another 6-12 months of funding from that at least.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 22:15
|
|
|
spankmeister posted:You really think that support is going to hold with Trump as president? Yeah, in the event that shitshow happens, even if the veto was overridden the executive will slow-walk any and all aid and only provided the minimum amount expressly called for in the bill. This would also apply to aid passed and signed in the lame duck--it'd be authorized but likely not completed before the GEOTUS gets coronated. They'd have to write it out pretty exhaustively, and even then the 6-3 supreme court will likely say the executive has ultimate authority/discretion over national security asset use. November is existential for Ukraine, is the main bullet point here.
|
|
#
?
Apr 23, 2024 22:47
|
|
|
... And it's through the Senate. Haven't seen vote breakdowns yet. Edit: I think it's https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1182/vote_118_2_00048.htm though the bill description there is weird. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 02:55 on Apr 24, 2024 |
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 02:51
|
|
|
Sanders voted Nay. Figures.
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 05:09
|
|
|
I sure hope Marge’s space laser amendment made it in!
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 05:13
|
|
|
The Tik Tok bill made it in, interestingly. ByteDance has to sell within a year or be banned in the US.
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 05:15
|
|
|
spankmeister posted:Sanders voted Nay. Figures. I think that was due to the Israel part of the package.
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 05:21
|
|
|
spankmeister posted:The Tik Tok bill made it in, interestingly. ByteDance has to sell within a year or be banned in the US. Well, pending the inevitable court cases.
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 06:18
|
|
|
U.S. Secretly Shipped New Long-Range Missiles to Ukraine Ukrainian forces for the first time used a longer-range version of weapons known as ATACMS, striking an airfield in Crimea and Russian troops in southeastern Ukraine quote:The United States last week secretly shipped a new long-range missile system to Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces immediately used the weapons to attack a Russian military airfield in Crimea last Wednesday and Russian troops in the country’s southeast overnight on Tuesday, according to a senior U.S. official.
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 19:07
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:I think that was due to the Israel part of the package. Yep, it was protest over the aid to Israel. In his defense this was absolutely going to pass with or without the 3 Dems casting protest votes, but it's still kinda lovely.
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 19:08
|
|
|
Going back to the topic of bribes, a pretty high profile case has just emerged involving Shoigu's deputy. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68886406 It's been known he was bent for years, and Navalnyi's team even did an investigation into corruption schemes on occupied territories that he directly profited from. He never hid his extremely luxurious lifestyle either. It is speculated that there is some anti-Shoigu infighting going on, and Shoigu might fight himself out of a job soon, too, although it might be just another case of an official stealing too much for too long without sharing with others.
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 22:41
|
|
|
Warbadger posted:Yep, it was protest over the aid to Israel. In his defense this was absolutely going to pass with or without the 3 Dems casting protest votes, but it's still kinda lovely. I have no issue with a symbolic anti aid to Israel vote, when he knows the wider Ukraine aid bill is going to pass. If his vote was the deciding one, then it would be different. But it isn't. It's lovely that this necessary and overdue Ukraine aid package got linked to aid to Israel, but the US stopping aid to Israel was never realistically on the cards, so this anti Israeli genocide vote is welcome and doesn't practically harm Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Apr 24, 2024 23:33
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:Ukraine will eventually, though. Russia will not stop until their military is completely exhausted and unable to fight, at which point Ukraine walks over them and takes their land back. This is just delusional posting. It's impossible for Ukraine to lose as long as they have American support! Yeah sure if you ignore every material reality of the difference in arms (huge) and manpower (even more important)
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 08:29
|
|
|
NoModsNoMasters69 posted:This is just delusional posting. It's impossible for Ukraine to lose as long as they have American support! Yeah sure if you ignore every material reality of the difference in arms (huge) and manpower (even more important) Manpower is important with regards to the amount of damage made to the Ukrainian economy and for support for the war, but if the will to fight is there it can't directly lead to Ukraine losing.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 08:55
|
|
|
DTurtle posted:WW1 France had a similar population to Ukraine today. In the four years of the war, France called up 8.8 million men, suffered 6 million casualties, of which 1.4 million were killed. Ukraine's losses are more than an order of magnitude smaller. This attitude is why when Ukraine loses, they will create a stabbed-in-the-back myth and succumb to fascism
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 09:19
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:This attitude is why when Ukraine loses, they will create a stabbed-in-the-back myth and succumb to fascism if ukraine loses i'm pretty sure the puppet government put in place over the new rump state of ruthenia or whatever putin decides is the correct historical name will probably be run by cronyism, not fascism
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 10:07
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:This attitude is why when Ukraine loses, they will create a stabbed-in-the-back myth and succumb to fascism Also, France won. Despite those losses.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 11:33
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:This attitude is why when Ukraine loses, they will create a stabbed-in-the-back myth and succumb to fascism If Russia loses, yes (though it's arguable how much Russia could still fall) Ukraine losing means it will cease to exist. Putin probably won't even bother with a puppet government, he thinks Ukrainians aren't real, after all. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 12:07
|
|
|
If Ukraine wins, it will create a uniquely-strong-nation myth and the country will succumb to fascism. It's only logical to let Russia win because they already have that myth deeply embedded in the official state ideology and, surely, it can't get any more fascist.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 13:16
|
|
|
Narrator: it could always get more fascist
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 13:40
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 6, 2024 08:19 |
|
|
Scratch Monkey posted:Narrator: it could always get more fascist "Blyat. Blyat never changes..."
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2024 13:49
|
|
