War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

Dick Ripple: May 19, 2021

Discendo Vox posted:

U.S. Secretly Shipped New Long-Range Missiles to Ukraine
Ukrainian forces for the first time used a longer-range version of weapons known as ATACMS, striking an airfield in Crimea and Russian troops in southeastern Ukraine

I am glad they started doing this. Maybe giving Russia advance notice of when certain weapon systems will be in Ukraine is not the best of ideas.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 14:21

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 5, 2024 15:10

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

DTurtle posted:

Manpower is important with regards to the amount of damage made to the Ukrainian economy and for support for the war, but if the will to fight is there it can't directly lead to Ukraine losing.

Will to fight has been somewhat of an issue for sometime now. The conscription law was passed only after great reluctance. The younger cohort which was spared early in the war is largely uninterested in signing up and are actively draft dodging .

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/

Meanwhile, battlefield setbacks continue to mount including the Russians advancing 5k unopposed when it appears that a relief unit scheduled to relieve a brigade that has been in constant action for 10 months failed to show up. The Ukrainians had to rush an under equipped TDF unit and turn the brigade back around to plug the gap but the situation has yet to stabilize.

https://x.com/J_JHelin/status/1783200453078974855

All the money and weapons in the world won't matter if the Ukrainians refuse to fight. Even if the conscription drive turns out successful, you are looking at the end of summer before training is completed. Or they have to go back and resort to sending conscripts in with insufficient training again (if it ever did stop) and suffer excessive casualties like what happened in Bakhmut a year ago, which still resulted in the loss of the city.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 14:22

Nitrox: Jul 5, 2002

What is this training that you speak of? The pipeline from recruitment to the front is weeks, not months. And often very few weeks at that.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 15:42

Dick Ripple: May 19, 2021

They have been trying to follow western standards for combat training, but unfortunately not all soldiers/units are able to complete that because of realities on the ground. There is quite a variation in the time/quality of training because of that.

I am not sure why they decided to hold back so long on implementing the increase in drafts, but it is interesting the stricter measures coincided with western aid.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 18:15

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

Dick Ripple posted:

They have been trying to follow western standards for combat training, but unfortunately not all soldiers/units are able to complete that because of realities on the ground. There is quite a variation in the time/quality of training because of that.

I am not sure why they decided to hold back so long on implementing the increase in drafts, but it is interesting the stricter measures coincided with western aid.

Between Zaluzhnyy's sacking/retirement and the bill passing, there was a push to get more people to sign contracts with the army. There were ads everywhere, and people were even directly contacted by recruiters on LinkedIn, etc. Although not an insignificant amount of men signed up, maybe the government overestimated how many people they could get that way.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cg3kmwn109lo
(can't find the respective article in English right now, sorry)

# ? Apr 25, 2024 18:28

Scratch Monkey: Oct 25, 2010; 👰Proč bychom se netě�ili🥰kdy� n�m P�n Bůh🙌🏻zdrav� d�💪?

I don�t understand why they are unwilling to fight. Sure it�s scary and obviously dangerous but given what�s at stake if Ukraine loses how can they refuse?

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:09

Dandywalken: Feb 11, 2014

Scratch Monkey posted:

I don’t understand why they are unwilling to fight. Sure it’s scary and obviously dangerous but given what’s at stake if Ukraine loses how can they refuse?

Presumably due to life goals and plans that fall outside of fighting in a war

Dandywalken fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Apr 25, 2024

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:11

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Scratch Monkey posted:

I don�t understand why they are unwilling to fight. Sure it�s scary and obviously dangerous but given what�s at stake if Ukraine loses how can they refuse?

Probably the lack of urgency. There were more volunteers than they could handle when the war first started. Now that it's settled down into slow attrition, people don't feel quite so compelled.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:32

Mystic Mongol: Jan 5, 2007; Your life's been thrown in disarray already--I wouldn't want you to feel pressured.; College Slice

Scratch Monkey posted:

I don�t understand why they are unwilling to fight. Sure it�s scary and obviously dangerous but given what�s at stake if Ukraine loses how can they refuse?

Presumably, "Someone else will fight to free Ukraine, and then I don't have to sleep in the mud for ten months and then get shot."

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:34

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

I could totally see Ukrainians not wanting to sign up to fight in the last 6 months considering how constrained the arms shipments were. Who wants to fight when the enemy has 10 artillery shells for every one of yours? It sounds like suicide. Hopefully the new arms shipments will improve recruitment numbers but also there's an election coming up soon in the US that could end all arms shipments for good and everyone knows it. That has to be demoralizing as hell for any prospective recruits.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:41

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

MikeC posted:

Will to fight has been somewhat of an issue for sometime now. The conscription law was passed only after great reluctance. The younger cohort which was spared early in the war is largely uninterested in signing up and are actively draft dodging .

The vast majority (more than 80%) of Ukrainians support mobilization. The main complaint/worry is that that mobilization needs to be fair.

There is no mass movement of draft dodging. I have also not seen any reports of large groups of people being unwilling to fight. It is more complaints that they have to fight with too little fire support or armored support in comparison to the Russians.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:44

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

DTurtle posted:

The vast majority (more than 80%) of Ukrainians support mobilization. The main complaint/worry is that that mobilization needs to be fair.

There is no mass movement of draft dodging. I have also not seen any reports of large groups of people being unwilling to fight. It is more complaints that they have to fight with too little fire support or armored support in comparison to the Russians.

I'm not sure what you mean by a mass movement, but it sounds like there is a lot of draft dodging going on and it's a pretty sensitive issue.
Ukraine�s Draft Dodgers Run, and Swim, to Avoid the War

www.nytimes.com - Sat, 13 Apr 2024 posted:

With Russia seizing the initiative on the battlefield in recent months, Ukraine�s ability to defend itself hinges on replenishing its arsenal of weaponry and mobilizing troops.

The roiling water can be treacherous, the banks are steep and slick with mud, and the riverbed is covered in jagged, hidden boulders.

Yet Ukrainian border guards often find their quarry � men seeking to escape the military draft � swimming in these hazardous conditions, trying to cross the Tysa River where it forms the border with Romania.

Lt. Vladyslav Tonkoshtan recently detained a man on the bank, where he was preparing to cross the river in the hope of reuniting with his wife and children, whom he had not seen in two years since they fled to another country in Europe.

That thousands of Ukrainian men have chosen to risk the swim rather than face the dangers as soldiers on the eastern front highlights the challenge for President Volodymyr Zelensky as he seeks to mobilize new troops after more than two years of bruising, bloody trench warfare with Russia.

�We cannot judge these people,� Lieutenant Tonkoshtan said. �But if all men leave, who will defend Ukraine?�

With Russia having seized the initiative on the battlefield in recent months, Ukraine�s ability to defend itself hinges on replenishing its arsenal of weaponry, a matter largely up to allies, and mobilizing troops at home.

But getting more men to enlist has been particularly difficult and politically fraught. After months of delays and debate, Ukraine�s Parliament on Thursday passed a law to expand the draft by eliminating some medical and other exemptions, increasing soldier pay and stiffening penalties for draft dodging. Mr. Zelensky separately signed a law lowering the draft age, to 25 from 27.

Ukraine�s shortage of soldiers has become acute, generals say. In a speech in Parliament on Thursday, the commander of Ukrainian forces in the east, Gen. Yurii Sodol, said Russians in certain sections of the front outnumber Ukrainians by more than seven to one.

It was among the first public assessments of the balance of forces in the east by a senior Ukrainian military commander. Ukraine, General Sodol told members of Parliament, requires one soldier for every 10 yards of trench work stretching along the 600-mile front.

Many Ukrainians who rushed to volunteer in the first days of the war have fought continually since, with only two weeks of leave once a year. Soldiers are enlisted until the end of hostilities, with no defined date for release from their obligation to serve. With casualty rates high, being drafted, soldiers say, is like getting a one-way ticket to the front.

As Ukraine�s battlefield prospects have sagged, draft dodging has been on the rise.

In the hills and river valleys of western Ukraine�s border regions, men from elsewhere in the country have been seeking to avoid enlistment by crossing into European countries, where they seek refugee status.

The Romanian authorities say more than 6,000 men have turned up on their side of the Tysa River since Russia�s invasion. Not everyone makes it. The bodies of 22 men have washed up on both banks, said Lt. Lesya Fedorova, a spokeswoman for the Mukachevo border guard unit.

More have most likely drowned, officials say, though their bodies have never been found. The fatalities have earned the river a grim nickname, Death River, though it is hundreds of miles from the violence along the front.

Men also slip across the border on mountain paths or try to exit through border crossing points with counterfeit documents.

The exodus has shifted the nature of smuggling in Ukraine�s Carpathian Mountains, which border four European Union countries: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Smuggling that once revolved around counterfeit cigarettes has pivoted almost completely to the business of guiding draft dodgers, border guards and local officials say.

Border guards say they detain men trying to cross the border illegally and cannot specify in any particular case whether a man was dodging the draft, a determination that is left to a court. But the trend of men crossing is clear.

Last year, the Mukachevo Border Guard Detachment broke up 56 criminal gangs helping Ukrainian men illegally leave the country during wartime, Lieutenant Fedorova said. Prices for help crossing the border, she said, have risen to as much as $10,000 today from $2,000 per person soon after the invasion. Smuggling a backpack of cigarettes, in contrast, pays as little as $200.

Checkpoints have gone up on highways near the border, where cars are checked for men who might be trying to leave the country. And along the border, guards have put up additional infrared cameras and sensors triggered by footsteps, Lieutenant Fedorova said.

The flow of draft dodgers in the west is a reflection of how large the specter of war looms over the lives of Ukrainian men, who by law are required to stay in the country.

Most men turn up when summoned for military service rather than flee, said Sgt. Mykhailo Pavlov, the commander of a military recruitment office in the western city of Uzhhorod. A veteran of the fighting, he was wounded before serving as a recruitment officer.

He said he talks to the men he drafts, describes the front and assures them they can improve their chances if they train well.

�Everybody is afraid to die, but we try to make them look at it from a different perspective,� he said � the perspective of survival. He also describes frankly the random risk of artillery shelling.

Still, the efforts to avoid the draft can be elaborate. On a recent morning, within minutes of officials beginning a patrol to check papers, posts on the Telegram social networking site were tracking their movements, alerting men who want to avoid the draft.

�Petofi Square,� warned a post in the channel, called Uzhhorod Radar, that tracks the recruitment officers as they walk through Petofi Sandor Square. In Kyiv, a similar site, Kyiv Weather, posts the risk of draft officer patrols in neighborhoods as sunny, cloudy and raining.

Vitaly Semon, 30, a welder, nervously fished his passport from a pocket for soldiers checking documents one recent morning, and described his two exemptions, for a back ailment and as a caregiver for an elderly father. His papers checked out. �It�s our reality now,� he said of the document checks.

In nearby villages, closer to the border, cars from other regions of Ukraine frequently cruise the streets and highways as men look for opportunities to cross out of the country, said Koval Fedir, the mayor of Tornivtsi, a village whose last houses overlook the fence along the border with Slovakia.

Before the Russian invasion, cigarette smuggling � done to avoid high European Union taxes � infused many aspects of life in the village, he said, financing some lavish homes and new cars in the driveways.

�It was profitable for everybody,� he said. Drones carrying boxes of cigarettes buzzed over the village and toward the Slovak border, sometimes crashing on the streets. Some smugglers used catapults to hurl cigarettes over the border fence.

But it has all but faded as a business, since moving draft dodgers is more lucrative. Smugglers have taken to hiring Roma guides to steer men out of Ukraine, said Mr. Fedir.

Andriy Benyak, who is Roma, said in an interview that he had been arrested while guiding two Ukrainian men toward a loosely guarded section of the border between Ukraine and Slovakia. He said he had been trying to earn money to buy food for his children. He spent a week in jail and paid a fine.

On the banks of the Tysa River at night, when most crossings are attempted, the speed of the current and breadth of the river are harder to gauge, border guards say. The guards last year took to publishing videos online of rescues and recoveries of bodies to discourage men from risking the swim.

In one video, a man standing precariously in the swirling water yells for help. The guards yell back, �Don�t slip; hold on!�

In that case, he lost his grip and was swept away before rescuers could reach him. No body was found, officials said.

The man apparently had tried to avoid the risk of dying in the war, but �he died anyway� in the river, said Lieutenant Fedorova. Of draft dodgers, she said, �They see the river as their chance to live because so many soldiers die on the front line.�

Draft-dodging plagues Ukraine as Kyiv faces acute soldier shortage

www.politico.eu - Mon, 25 Mar 2024 posted:

KYIV � The 28-year-old is one of thousands of young Ukrainian men keeping their heads down, dodging conscription and avoiding registering their details as required. Artem is cautious when he ventures out, and avoids places like metro stations where police mount document checks looking for draft-dodgers.

�Some of my friends are more paranoid � they never go out,� he says.

Artem has the air of a fugitive, with his baseball cap pulled down firmly and shielding his eyes even on an overcast day. Before entering the coffee house in downtown Kyiv to meet with POLITICO he gazes up and down the street, and once seated talks in a low voice so as not to be overheard.

When Russia invaded their country two years ago, young and old Ukrainians swamped recruitment centers to volunteer. Some were frustrated not to be drafted immediately, and complained loudly. The Ukrainian military couldn�t take everyone owing to a lack of resources and equipment, but managed to muster new units, expand established ones and improvise to halt Russian armor bearing down on Kyiv.

But that early burst of patriotic fervor has waned with the war now in its third year, the body bags filling, and men returning home injured and disfigured.

Pessimism about the future of the conflict is also taking hold, with ever more people questioning whether Ukraine is capable of defeating Moscow's forces.

### 'Sensitive' issue

Ukraine needs to draft many more men for a battlefield that is chewing up bodies, but authorities are conflicted over whether to cajole or coerce, and fear the political fallout if they choose the latter. Since the Russian invasion two years ago around 9,000 draft-evasion proceedings have been opened, according to the Ukrainian interior ministry, but that's just scratching the surface of the draft-dodging and the evasion of registration so enlistment notices can't be issued.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged that the issue is �sensitive.� Even in the weeks leading up to Russia's February 2022 invasion, he resisted calls from opposition lawmakers in Kyiv to announce a general call-up.

The most immediate need now is to enlist more soldiers that can be deployed along the 1,000-kilometer front line ahead of an expected major Russian push toward either Kharkiv in the northeast or Odesa in the south. With the winter mud starting to dry and spring around the corner, Ukrainian military officials fear a concerted Russian offensive will start in the next few weeks or months.

Ukraine is perilously short not only of ammunition � especially artillery shells and air defense missiles � but also of soldiers to see off a Russian attack. The average age of Ukraine�s frontline soldiers is 43 � and evidence of draft-dodging is mounting.

The BBC recently reported that�650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age�have fled the country in the past two years, most slipping across its borders with Poland and Slovakia, some with false exemption papers allowing them to exit Ukraine despite a ban on fighting-age men leaving the country.

Last year nearly 1,300 draft-dodgers found themselves before the courts, but officials acknowledge this is just a small fraction of those avoiding enlistment. A draft system is in effect to supplement the ranks of volunteers, but lawmakers say it is dysfunctional and is hampered by the failure of thousands to register their details and whereabouts. Enforcement is haphazard, depending largely on random spot checks of documents by police, who are more vigilant in some areas of the country than in others.

Moscow�s troop strength inside Ukraine currently exceeds 400,000 soldiers, with another 100,000 near Ukrainian territory. Overall Kyiv has around 680,000 active military personnel with around 200,000 on the frontlines; Russia, meanwhile, has 1.2 million, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Ukrainian army general staff said last year they feared Russia could be considering mobilizing 400,000 to 700,000 additional troops.

In December Zelenskyy said 450,000 to 500,000 extra soldiers would be needed to resist Russia in 2024. The Ukrainian parliament has for weeks been considering fresh mobilization legislation, which would see the minimum conscription age lowered from 27 to 25. The age was in fact lowered in separate legislation last July and approved by parliament, but Zelenskyy never signed it into law. He hasn't fully explained why.

The new draft legislation has been re-written several times and envisages a call-up of another 400,000 Ukrainian troops. It has stalled in the parliament, however, with lawmakers objecting to some punitive measures they regard as unconstitutional, such as restricting the property rights of draft-dodgers, impounding their cars and blocking their bank accounts.

### 'Hot political potato'

�That�s highly unpopular,� said Mykola Kniazhytskyi, an opposition lawmaker from Lviv. �Truth be told, mobilization is a hot political potato, and no one wants to be holding it. The army needs many more people. But Zelenskyy doesn�t want to take responsibility for the mobilization and says it is up to government ministries, and they�re afraid of getting their hands burned and say it is up to the parliament, which then passes the buck back.

�Even most lawmakers from Zelenskyy�s own party [Servant of the People] are against the legislation, saying it falls foul of European human rights conventions,� Kniazhytskyi added. �This is becoming a real mess. In Lviv, people are buying apartments but don't sign a purchase agreement to avoid it being formally registered, or they register it in a friend�s name because they�re afraid later it could be confiscated. Others are emptying bank accounts in case legislation is approved and their money [is] frozen.�

What isn�t helping, he and other lawmakers say, is the frequent talk from the frontlines about the lack of weapons and artillery shells. �You have officers going on television saying if we don't get more money and ammunition from the United States and Europe everyone at the front is going to get killed in a matter of weeks because the Russians produce many drones and have more shells,� Kniazhytskyi fumed. Such prognoses aren�t helping persuade reluctant Ukrainians like Artem to join up.

�There�s no real political will to pass a legislation that would actually work efficiently � it has been postponed so many times already,� said former Deputy Prime Minister Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, now an opposition lawmaker.

�The Western hesitation in providing the military resupply and weapons we need isn�t helping in terms of mobilization,� she added. �If the only thing you hear from the front is that they don�t have enough weapons to fight, then obviously it makes people even more skeptical about enlisting.�

### 'One-way ticket'

Artem says he and his friends dodging the draft are also afraid of being stuck in combat for months or years on end. �I�m young and want to live my life, and to go there without knowing when I will return to my normal life is hard. I have friends who volunteered at the beginning of the war and they're still there fighting. So it is like a one-way ticket,� he says.

Prolonged time on the frontlines is also drawing bitter complaints from battle-weary Ukrainian combatants demanding to be demobilized or rotated out with lengthy recuperation time. Their relatives want the same thing: On Sunday, dozens of families of frontline soldiers crowded into Kyiv�s Maidan Square to demand their husbands, fathers and boyfriends be relieved from combat, arguing they�ve done their bit and now must be demobilized or given considerable rest and relaxation. �

But that can�t happen until more Ukrainians sign up and are trained.

Some lawmakers are pushing for the duration of military service proposed in the draft mobilization bill to be cut from 36 to 18 months; service is currently open-ended.

Last month, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Zelenskyy, said people will have to determine for themselves the price they are willing to pay for Ukraine�s independence. He told POLITICO it would help if ordinary Ukrainians didn�t feel Western support was flagging, and queried whether Ukraine is that much different from other modern European countries.

�Is there any country where everyone will participate fully in the type of war Ukraine is in?" he asked. "It seems to me that it would be very difficult to carry out such mobilization in any European country, to put it mildly, and much harder than even in Ukraine. You must consider that people are invested in their careers and the good life,� he told POLITICO.

Podolyak added: "It is different for Russians � many people are enduring uncomfortable lives and are unemployed and they are paid a good salary in Russian terms to fight and then they are also told they can kill and steal with impunity.�

He also said that seeing the issue purely through the lens of mobilization misses the point. �It is nonsense to think in terms of sheer numbers when fighting against Russia. We live in the age of high technology. Why should people have to fight if you have enough precision weapons � drones, jammers, long-range missiles? The more tools we have in the form of precision weapons, the less gunfights we have,� he said.

But Ukraine doesn�t have enough of those high-tech weapons. Until they do, sheer numbers may well win out � and even if they do get the supplies, they still may not compensate for Russia�s greater manpower.

For Artem, there�s little that could persuade him to enlist. �My mother is a nurse and she sees the wounded and tells me firmly to stay out of it,� he says.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:48

mrfart: May 26, 2004; Dear diary, today I
became a captain.

Eric Cantonese posted:

I think that was due to the Israel part of the package.

Yeah

WASHINGTON, March 23 � Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) today released the following statement regarding his NO vote on the appropriations package passed in the Senate last night:

I voted NO on the appropriations bill that the Senate passed last night. While hundreds of thousands of Palestinian children face starvation in Gaza, this bill actually prohibits funding to UNRWA, the key United Nations aid agency delivering life-saving humanitarian support. This will only intensify the already horrific situation in Gaza. This bill also provides another $3.3 billion in U.S. military aid for Netanyahu�s right-wing government to continue this barbaric war. The Netanyahu government should not receive another penny from U.S. taxpayers.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:50

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

In promising industrial news, the Finnish-Swedish paper giant Stora Enso is looking into solving part of the European gunpowder crisis. For a long time China has been the main supplier of cotton based cellulose used for nitrocellulose aka. guncotton, but they haven't responded to the current high demand and there are also ~*reasons*~ to move away from dependence on them. The type of cellulose required can also be made from wood pulp and as it's old tried technology and facilities already exist, there's readiness to start domestic production on a not glacial time scale.

Not sure why they piped up now instead of a year ago, probably because the business is not so great right now so while the profit from gunpowder cellulose sales isn't quite the same as further refining the cellulose into fine paper, it's better than closing a pulp mill.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 20:52

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

Anecdotal, but my colleague tried to join territorial defence in Kharkiv back in March 2022, and they told him they had too many people and didn't need any slightly out of shape IT professionals clogging the system. Next year he thought about joining the army, but again was told that he would better serve his country working, bringing in foreign money, and donating. After the counteroffensive failed to achieve major territorial gains and the lack of American aid became an issue, he basically said he will only try joining again when Ukraine gets F-16s and more Patriots. Different people have different reasons.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 21:09

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Scratch Monkey posted:

I don�t understand why they are unwilling to fight. Sure it�s scary and obviously dangerous but given what�s at stake if Ukraine loses how can they refuse?

I believe pre-invasion Ukraine suffered from huge corruption issues and I suspect those issues are lingering even now. If you compound that with a war that does not look like it's going to end and western allies who are dragging their feet providing basic conventional weapons like artillery shells and air defense, I can see why a lot of young men aren't jumping up and down to get thrown into another Bakhmut.

Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Apr 25, 2024

# ? Apr 25, 2024 21:29

Baudolino: Apr 1, 2010; THUNDERDOME LOSER

Maybe the only good thing that can come off this is Europe building back up its military industry and rebuilding its military strength by using the time that Ukraine har essentially purchased with its blood.
Thats at least something. But it is depressing that NATO consitently provided too little aid too late to change the outcome.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 21:31

Mokotow: Apr 16, 2012

Eric Cantonese posted:

I believe pre-invasion Ukraine suffered from huge corruption issues and I suspect those issues are lingering even now. If you compound that with a war that does not look like it's going to end and western allies who are dragging their feet providing basic conventional weapons like artillery shells and air defense, I can see why a lot of young men aren't jumping up and down to get thrown into another Bakhmut.

Ukraine and its military are all a horrible, corrupt mess, as anyone who�s been there since the war kicked off will attest. It�s the end result of two decades of Russia�s corrupt influence and no real reforms. Right now it�s a shell of a country, with all (and few) resources going towards the army and defending themselves from a Russian nazi invasion. And you�re right, the terrible dilemma many Ukrainians are having is if it�s actually worth dying for. Some have never gotten anything back from the country. Many living in the EU have not stepped foot as adults in it and they�re expected to fight for it. It�s a lovely, messy situation.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 21:38

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

Challenges of the Ukrainian Mobilization SCEEUS Report No. 5, 2024 posted:

A public opinion poll by Info Sapience published by Texty.org.ua on 27 February showed that among men not currently serving in the army but liable for military service, 15.8 per cent are fully prepared to serve if called on and 19 per cent are fairly prepared. However, 29.8 per cent were absolutely not ready and 18.3 per cent fairly unready. The remaining 17.1 per cent found it hard to answer the question. Among the reasons that might deter people from joining the army, besides the risk to their lives and health, were insufficient equipment (uniforms, weapons, protective gear and medical kits), lack of proper training and the likelihood of ending up with a �bad commander�. People were also deterred by the indefinite term of service. Bad commanders scare people even more than being captured by the Russians.

An overwhelming majority agreed that mobilization was necessary, but 56.3 per cent strongly agreed that mobilization was necessary but must also be just, and a further 25.5 per cent only slightly agreed with this proposition. In addition, 34.7 per cent strongly agreed that mobilization must be better organized (involving better equipment and people placed in positions for which they are professionally fit) and a further 33.7 per cent slightly agreed with this statement.[17]

Just to post the source of my previous claim.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 22:08

Raenir Salazar: Nov 5, 2010; College Slice

Enjoy posted:

This attitude is why when Ukraine loses, they will create a stabbed-in-the-back myth and succumb to fascism

Would it not be objectively correct to observe that Ukraine was betrayed by the international community? They had numerous promises and assurances over the years about their territorial integrity and independence that failed to materialize.

# ? Apr 25, 2024 22:44

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021; thermodynamics cheated

Raenir Salazar posted:

Would it not be objectively correct to observe that

i have no idea how you actually use the word "objectively" anymore

there would be a subjective sense of betrayal or unfulfilled promises at any rate

# ? Apr 25, 2024 23:09

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

Scratch Monkey posted:

I don�t understand why they are unwilling to fight. Sure it�s scary and obviously dangerous but given what�s at stake if Ukraine loses how can they refuse?

It's real easy to ask why someone else isn't willing to die in a muddy field for their country.

Imagine you have a family, are you so sure you might not consider relocating? This isn't a knock on Ukranians will to fight, just put yourselves in their shoes. It's not so clear cut Ukraine can even win, do you want to die for a potentially pointless cause?

# ? Apr 25, 2024 23:11

spankmeister: Jun 15, 2008

Enjoy posted:

This attitude is why when Ukraine loses, they will create a stabbed-in-the-back myth and succumb to fascism

We'll all succumb to your terrible posting long before that happens

# ? Apr 25, 2024 23:34

Raenir Salazar: Nov 5, 2010; College Slice

Staluigi posted:

i have no idea how you actually use the word "objectively" anymore

there would be a subjective sense of betrayal or unfulfilled promises at any rate

It seems to me like a reasonable use the word in the current context; it is true that Ukraine was betrayed by the international community, this is a fact. While there can be various meanings to "objective" and sometimes refers to scientific objective fact like "2+2=4" it can refer to broader ideas and hold the colloquial meaning of "trivially true"; like "it is objective fact that Putin sucks" there's no scientific basis for this claim, it relies on a preponderance of the evidence that people are assumed to be familiar with.

e: regardless you don't seem to be disputing the substance of what I said, since "subjective" doesn't actually mean "false" but is generally means something like "arguable" and you don't seem to be disputing which way the scales tilt in that regard; the point is I am saying the scales tilt overwhelmingly towards being "true", and it is seems like my subjective opinion that you do not in fact disagree.

Raenir Salazar fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Apr 26, 2024

# ? Apr 26, 2024 00:11

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Raenir Salazar posted:

Would it not be objectively correct to observe that Ukraine was betrayed by the international community?

In what ways, specifically, and based on what agreements?

# ? Apr 26, 2024 01:16

3rdEyeDeuteranopia: Sep 12, 2007

mlmp08 posted:

In what ways, specifically, and based on what agreements?

The 1994 agreement with Russia, the US and the UK to give up nukes in exchange for Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.

Between this and what happened to Libya, there is far less incentive for countries to give up weapons or weapons programs.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 01:29

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:

The 1994 agreement with Russia, the US and the UK to give up nukes in exchange for Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.

I would argue that Russia broke that deal, but I�m not sure that means the international community backstabbed Ukraine.

Also it�s not really possible to do the counterfactual of what might have happened to Ukraine if they told the UK, US, and Russia to shove it in 1994 and kept hold of nuclear warheads. There would probably have been lasting consequences over the next few decades.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 01:59

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021; thermodynamics cheated

Raenir Salazar posted:

It seems to me like a reasonable use the word in the current context; it is true that Ukraine was betrayed by the international community, this is a fact. While there can be various meanings to "objective" and sometimes refers to scientific objective fact like "2+2=4" it can refer to broader ideas and hold the colloquial meaning of "trivially true"; like "it is objective fact that Putin sucks" there's no scientific basis for this claim, it relies on a preponderance of the evidence that people are assumed to be familiar with

i need a minute here because the defense of the use of "objectively" or "an objective fact" comes through the demonstration of ... a subjective opinion simply declared as an objective fact

like independently of whatever you are trying to argue, this is at least ... memorable

# ? Apr 26, 2024 02:23

Raenir Salazar: Nov 5, 2010; College Slice

Staluigi posted:

i need a minute here because the defense of the use of "objectively" or "an objective fact" comes through the demonstration of ... a subjective opinion simply declared as an objective fact

like independently of whatever you are trying to argue, this is at least ... memorable

If it isn't objective fact, this would imply it is incorrect, do you disagree with what I said? So far you're still questioning the specific word choice which doesn't seem substantive.

mlmp08 posted:

I would argue that Russia broke that deal, but I�m not sure that means the international community backstabbed Ukraine.

Also it�s not really possible to do the counterfactual of what might have happened to Ukraine if they told the UK, US, and Russia to shove it in 1994 and kept hold of nuclear warheads. There would probably have been lasting consequences over the next few decades.

The thing is the larger context, Ukraine's international relations aren't in a vacuum of purely bilateral relations, but multilateral, since WW2 the US, the various entities we consider the EU/NATO, and the mission statement of the United Nations and its explicit purpose to prevent a war like WW2 from occurring ever again; have generally stood up and proclaimed the principles of the importance of defending nations from aggression, America, the UN, and various allies intervened to defend the sovereignty of Kuwait, who the US had far less relations and declared interest than Ukraine, and they did so with overwhelming force to expel Saddam.

But also even without considering the frequent and repeated rhetoric of the President of the United States of America being the Leader of the Free World and all that entails, the Budapest Memorandum in particular had the United States and the United Kingdom as direct signatories; and separately included China and France. In particular, the US, the UK, and France pledged support to Ukraine in exchange for their adherence to the NPT.

In totality considering the aggregate measures of bilateral and multilateral treaties and agreements, the principles of the UN, EU, and NATO, the principles of the US and most of the liberal democratic west; rhetoric and public assurances and statements by the leaders of these nations and organizations, its pretty clear that there was an abject failure by the international community to act in the swift and decisive defence and support of Ukraine and its people.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 03:25

Morrow: Oct 31, 2010

3rdEyeDeuteranopia posted:

The 1994 agreement with Russia, the US and the UK to give up nukes in exchange for Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.

Between this and what happened to Libya, there is far less incentive for countries to give up weapons or weapons programs.

The reason Russia isn't being dogpiled is because they have a large nuclear and strategic arsenal, so it's worse than that.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 03:44

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Raenir Salazar posted:

In totality considering the aggregate measures of bilateral and multilateral treaties and agreements, the principles of the UN, EU, and NATO, the principles of the US and most of the liberal democratic west; rhetoric and public assurances and statements by the leaders of these nations and organizations, its pretty clear that there was an abject failure by the international community to act in the swift and decisive defence and support of Ukraine and its people.

Not a single one of those agreements pledged �swift and decisive defence� of Ukraine, though.

They either pledged not to attack or economically coerce Ukraine and, if Ukraine were attacked or threatened with nukes, pledged to bring it up for discussion in the UNSC.

You seem to be saying the international community failed or generally misled Ukraine, because they didn�t exceed their pledges and assurances enough. There was never any guarantee of any military assistance in case of Ukraine being attacked.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 04:10

Raenir Salazar: Nov 5, 2010; College Slice

mlmp08 posted:

Not a single one of those agreements pledged �swift and decisive defence� of Ukraine, though.

They either pledged not to attack or economically coerce Ukraine and, if Ukraine were attacked or threatened with nukes, pledged to bring it up for discussion in the UNSC.

You seem to be saying the international community failed or generally misled Ukraine, because they didn�t exceed their pledges and assurances enough. There was never any guarantee of any military assistance in case of Ukraine being attacked.

You seem to be misunderstanding the point of the comparison being made? No one is saying that there was a defence pact that the US and the West were obligated to act via direct military means due to an explicitly signed agreement; I was very clear that this is about implicit agreements and moral principles and frameworks. The point of comparing to Iraq is that the US had no agreement with Kuwait to offer swift and decisive defence, and yet they did so. The point of this comparison is that the US did offer assurances to Ukraine, and the threat Putin poses to Europe is greater than the thread posed by Saddam; there is far greater justification for the US and the West to intervene and decisively and swiftly provide aid and support. Failure to act despite years of clear warnings of Russian aggression is a colossal failure of the (US led) international community, which is a betrayal, because it betrays the myriad principles as I mentioned that are foundational to the modern rules based US led international order.

Raenir Salazar fucked around with this message at 04:26 on Apr 26, 2024

# ? Apr 26, 2024 04:23

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Raenir Salazar posted:

You seem to be misunderstanding the point of the comparison being made?

I don�t think so. I was asking for specifics on what agreements the international community betrayed Ukraine on. I think I understand and disagree with your assessment of the situation.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 04:35

BabyFur Denny: Mar 18, 2003

Scratch Monkey posted:

I don’t understand why they are unwilling to fight. Sure it’s scary and obviously dangerous but given what’s at stake if Ukraine loses how can they refuse?

Only an empty-headed person could be persuaded to die for their country. I'd also nope the gently caress out of there if my country was under attack and I was in danger of being drafted. Especially to frontlines like the ones in Ukraine.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 05:40

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021; thermodynamics cheated

Raenir Salazar posted:

If it isn't objective fact, this would imply it is incorrect, do you disagree with what I said?

yes. see again you misidentifying a subjective personal statement as an example of an objective fact

quote:

So far you're still questioning the specific word choice which doesn't seem substantive.

i mean it doesn't matter a whole lot, it's just odd that it turned out you strangely misuse the opportunity to call things "objective fact"

# ? Apr 26, 2024 06:07

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

BabyFur Denny posted:

Only an empty-headed person could be persuaded to die for their country. I'd also nope the gently caress out of there if my country was under attack and I was in danger of being drafted. Especially to frontlines like the ones in Ukraine.

So if something threatened your home, you would just pack up and let everything you had burn and everyone you knew die? Wow,that's incredible.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 06:08

Keisari: May 24, 2011

BabyFur Denny posted:

Only an empty-headed person could be persuaded to die for their country. I'd also nope the gently caress out of there if my country was under attack and I was in danger of being drafted. Especially to frontlines like the ones in Ukraine.

Lmao. Have fun living a life of exile and being shamed and shunned by everyone you know if your country ever gets attacked. And if everyone in your country shares your view, it will lose.

Edit:
Let me put it this way. If Russia attacked Finland and I chose to desert, these would be the consequences:

My father would certainly disown me. Would never talk to me again. My friends would go to the frontline and wonder why I left them to die. They would never talk to me. If caught, I would be sentenced to prison for over 10 years and would definitely receive a lot of abuse for abandoning my country. All other men and many women would shame me for running while they risk their lives. Most other women would shame me for not being there to protect them as is expected of me as a conscriptable man. I would never have a career again and would forever carry a stain of dishonor the like of which hasn't been attached on anyone for almost a century in here. And, I would probably still die in Russian terror strikes.

Want to re-examine your argument?

Keisari fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Apr 26, 2024

# ? Apr 26, 2024 06:48

BabyFur Denny: Mar 18, 2003

Nenonen posted:

So if something threatened your home, you would just pack up and let everything you had burn and everyone you knew die? Wow,that's incredible.

I already left my home country, should I travel back and die defending a place I have no more ties to?
Of course I'd do my best to help out anyone I care about, but my loyalty is to the community I chose, not some artificial nation state construct I happened to be born in.

# ? Apr 26, 2024 06:56

Keisari: May 24, 2011

BabyFur Denny posted:

I already left my home country, should I travel back and die defending a place I have no more ties to?
Of course I'd do my best to help out anyone I care about, but my loyalty is to the community I chose, not some artificial nation state construct I happened to be born in.

What about your current country?

# ? Apr 26, 2024 06:59

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 5, 2024 15:10

BabyFur Denny: Mar 18, 2003

Keisari posted:

What about your current country?

A country that I'm neither a citizen nor a permanent resident of, that would kick me out the moment I lose my job? Seriously?

# ? Apr 26, 2024 07:01

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

«‹›466 »